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Benign financing conditions since the global financial crisis and, more recently, rising financing needs have fueled a rapid increase in credit to the nonfinancial private sector, especially to the corporate sector, in emerging markets and developing economies. Credit growth has been most pronounced, and nearing the pace associated with past credit booms, in commodity exporting countries. In contrast, in commodity importers, credit-to-gross domestic product ratios are elevated but have been stable or shrinking over the past few years. That said, in a few, mostly energy exporting, emerging and developing countries, credit to the private sector is now near levels that have been associated with past episodes of financial stress.

The recent reversal of capital flows to emerging markets has pointed up the continuing relevance of the sudden stop problem. This paper analyzes the sudden stops in capital flows to emerging markets since 1991. It shows that the frequency and duration of sudden stops have remained largely unchanged, but that the relative importance of different factors in their incidence has changed. In particular, global factors appear to have become more important relative to country-specific characteristics and policies. Sudden stops now tend to affect different parts of the world simultaneously rather than bunching regionally. Stronger macroeconomic and financial frameworks have allowed policy makers to respond more flexibly, but these more flexible responses have not guaranteed insulation or mitigated the impact of the phenomenon. These findings suggest that the challenge of understanding and coping with capital-flow volatility is far from fully met.

This paper investigates the effect of access to finance on job growth in 50,000 firms across 70 developing countries. Using the introduction of credit bureaus as an exogenous shock to the supply of credit, the paper finds that increased access to finance results in higher employment growth, especially among micro, small, and medium enterprises. The results are robust to using firm fixed effects, industry measures of external finance dependence, and propensity score matching in a complementary panel data set of more than four million firms in 29 developing countries. The findings have implications for policy interventions targeted to produce job growth in micro, small, and medium enterprises.

Studies on the link between financial development and poverty have been inconclusive. Some claim that deeper financial sectors should improve the allocation of capital by allowing entrepreneurs greater access to finance, which should particularly favor the poor. Others argue that improvements in the financial system primarily benefit the rich and politically connected. The literature has also been ambiguous about the channels through which finance may be associated with lower poverty (deposits versus credit). Looking at a sample of 37 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1992 through 2006, the paper suggests that financial deepening is associated with lower poverty through different channels depending on the strength of property rights. In the absence of well-defined and enforced property rights, wider access to saving and risk-sharing instruments is accompanied by a reduction in poverty. Only once property rights grow stronger is credit associated with lower poverty.

Low export prices and high production costs are contributing to a persistent deficit in the external accounts. Despite narrowing somewhat in recent years, Zimbabwe’s current account deficit remains much larger than those of comparable countries in the region, and exports currently amount to just over half of imports. A decline in global prices for gold, platinum and other mineral commodities, coupled with unresolved supply-side constraints, has reduced the value of mining exports. Zimbabwe has also benefited from lower oil prices, but rising import volumes largely offset the impact on import values. Remittances gradually increased during 2010-2015 and are estimated to have reached almost 7 percent of Gross National Income (GNI) in 2015. The domestic financial sector is slowly recovering from a post-dollarization credit boom and interest rates remain elevated. The Central Bank has stabilized the financial sector, a recent growth of broad money looks robust and bank lending has become market-driven. But still only blue-chip borrowers are able to access financing at competitive rates. The authorities are taking measures to update Zimbabwe’s credit infrastructure, strengthen oversight and restore the regulatory framework. Zimbabwe is experiencing a deflationary trend in response to these macroeconomic imbalances. The multicurrency regime, adopted in 2009, limits monetary policy instruments available to the authorities but also provides a level of fiscal and economic restraint. As competitive pressures increased, the consumer price index fell -2.5 percent, year-on-years, at end-2015. Declining prices should help to restore competitiveness over time, but should be accompanied by efforts to raise productivity at all levels of the economy.

This paper evaluates the impact of access to credit from banks and other financial institutions on household welfare in Mauritania. Micro-level data from a 2014 household survey are used to evaluate the relationship between credit access, a range of household characteristics, and welfare indicators. To address potential endogeneity issues, the household isolation level is used to instrument access to credit. The results show that households headed by older, more educated people are more likely to access financial services, as are households located in urban areas. In addition, greater financial access appears to be associated with a reduced dependence on household production and increased investment in human capital.

Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and labor market regulation. Doing Business 2016 presents the data for the labor market regulation indicators in an annex. The report does not present rankings of economies on labor market regulation indicators or include the topic in the aggregate distance to frontier score or ranking on the ease of doing business. This regional profile presents the Doing Business indicators for economies in Arab World. It also shows the regional average, the best performance globally for each indicator and data for the following comparator regions: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Latin America and OECD High Income.. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2015 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January–December 2014).

Financial infrastructure is the underlying foundation of a country’s financial system. It comprises all institutions, the rules, and standards of all the systems which enable financial intermediation. The quality of a country’s financial infrastructure determines the efficiency of intermediation, the ability of lenders to evaluate risk and of borrowers to obtain credit, insurance, and other financial products at competitive terms. For instance, the efficient and smooth functioning of the payment, and securities settlement systems facilitates the discharge of financial obligations and the safe transfer of funds across distances and institutions; hence, it support the stability of the financial system. This technical note contains the assessment of the national payment and settlement systems (NPS) infrastructure in Montenegro. The assessment was undertaken in the context of the IMF and World Bank (WB) joint Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) mission to Montenegro during September 1-15, 2015. The assessor was Gynedi Srinivas of the World Bank’s Payment Systems Development Group. The assessor will like to thank the counterparts in Montenegro for their excellent cooperation and hospitality during the mission.

There has been significant development of Mali’s banking sector in recent years, but it remains shallow, and access to banking services is limited. With the opening of a new bank in 2014, there are now 14 commercial banks operating in Mali. There has been a positive evolution of the banking sector in Mali from 2009-13. There have been a number of changes in recent years in the ownership structure of the banking sector, which is now dominated by foreign shareholders, primarily from Africa. The emergence of WAEMU banking groups is a recent phenomenon, spurred in part by the approval of a single banking license for the sub-region. Available financial soundness indicators (FSI) suggest that the banking sector is generally sound, though performance varies widely among banks, and asset quality is weak.

Using a data set covering about 277,000 firms across 79 countries over the period 2004-11, this paper examines the evolution of firms capital structure during the global financial crisis and its aftermath in 2010-11. The study finds that firm leverage and debt maturity declined in advanced economies and developing countries, even in countries that did not experience a crisis. The deleveraging and maturity reduction were particularly significant for privately held firms, including small and medium enterprises. For small and medium-size enterprises, these effects were larger in countries with less efficient legal systems, weaker information-sharing mechanisms, shallower banking systems, and more restrictions on bank entry. In contrast, there is weaker evidence of a significant decline of leverage and debt maturity among firms listed on a stock exchange, which are typically much larger than other firms and likely benefit from the spare tire of easier access to capital market financing.

A country’s legal and judicial environment can help or hinder access to credit. In addition to the banking law governing the organization of the sector, the operations of credit institutions are subject to several laws. Four components of Malian business law are particularly relevant in assessing the position of creditors, the law on secured transactions, the law on collective proceedings, the law on information-sharing related to debtors (sometimes called the credit reporting law), and the law on collection and enforcement proceedings. If creditors cannot have confidence in their legal environment, they will be inclined to lend only to persons they know well. In this regard, it is telling to note that in Mali, the 50 biggest clients account for 39.3 percent of the credit extended by banks (although this percentage has fallen in recent times). Furthermore, access to credit remains a major constraint in the Malian business world. Although the reasons are not confined solely to the legal sphere, it is important to point out that, according to the 2010 Enterprise Survey, Malian enterprises cited access to credit as the main constraint hampering the business environment (43.9 percent of enterprises). The same study showed that in the case of loans involving a security right, the value of the assets pledged stood at 201.4 percent of the amount borrowed, reflecting the lack of confidence by banks in their ability to actually enforce their rights. In addition, in view of the fact that 58 percent of loans require a pledged asset which, in most instances, takes the form of immovable property, persons who do not own such assets are, de facto, shut out of the system and unable to seek credit.

The purpose of this note is to provide policy recommendations to improve access to credit of rural populations and small agricultural producers under financially sustainable schemes. Although the agricultural sector remains an important source of employment, agricultural credit is a small fraction of commercial credit in Colombia. The share of agricultural credit in Colombia is below levels observed in other countries in the region. Colombian commercial banks have limited credit volume in rural areas, concentrating their lending activities on more profitable urban populations. General deposit warehouses and the agricultural commodity exchange (Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia (BMC)) provide funding for agricultural activities, but they are underdeveloped compared to regional peers and serve medium and large size producers. Overall use of mobile- and internet-based payment financial products remains low in rural Colombia. According to 2014 Findex survey data, just two percent of adults report using mobile banking, defined as a mobile platform for making transactions from an account at a financial institution. Public credit guarantee system (FAG) coverage should be modified to incentive the use of mobile guarantees and agricultural insurance. This will ensure that financial institutions have only covered tail risks, providing incentives to use mobile guarantees.

This paper empirically examines the determinants of credit at different maturities across European Union countries during the last decade. The paper documents the lengthening of maturities since the early 2000s, and whether these patterns were driven by similar factors in advanced countries and in emerging market countries. Before the 2008 crisis, long-term credit expanded faster than short-term credit in most countries in the sample, and contracted less than short-term credit after 2008. The paper finds that domestic deposits and foreign liabilities were more important sources of funding in emerging market countries than in advanced countries. Moreover, trade openness and initial banking sector depth matter more for emerging market countries than for advanced countries.

Growing research and policy interest focuses on the misallocation of output and factors of production in developing economies. This paper considers the possible misallocation of financial loans. Using plant-level data on the organized and unorganized sectors, the paper describes the temporal, geographic, and industry distributions of financial loans. The focus of the analysis is the hypothesis that land misallocation might be an important determinant of financial misallocation (for example, because of the role of land as collateral against loans). Using district-industry variations, the analysis finds evidence to support this hypothesis, although it does not find a total reduction in the intensity of financial loans or those being given to new entrants. The analysis also considers differences by gender of business owners and workers in firms. Although potential early gaps for businesses with substantial female employment have disappeared in the organized sector, a sizeable and persistent gap remains in the unorganized sector.

This snapshot provides an overview of financial inclusion trends and challenges in Tunisia. It follows the recent expiration of the Coordinated Vision for the Development of Microfinance in Tunisia 2011-2014, national strategy published in 2011.

A well-functioning and inclusive financial sector is critical for efficient resource allocation leading to increased productivity, greater investment, higher overall levels of economic growth, and lower inequality. This is particularly critical in Iraq, where years of political instability and violence have impeded the development of a robust private sector. Microfinance services in Iraq are still nascent and far from meeting their full potential. This diagnostic report aims to present the microfinance landscape in Iraq, its legal and regulatory framework, and potential policy improvements to enhance the operating environment. It aims to inform public and private sector stakeholders on the regulations and laws affecting the development and strategic direction of the microfinance sector. The policy recommendations presented are designed to address factors preventing greater growth and outreach, with the goal of promoting inclusive financial sector development in Iraq.

This report will share key findings from the research, starting with an overview in section two of the international remittance context and the UK remittance market. It also provides a view on trends in the UK market, particularly in the wake of significant bank de-risking, leading many remittance service providers (RSPs) to seek out alternative banking solutions. Section three outlines the objectives of the research, the survey design and the sampling techniques for the fieldwork. This is followed by Section 4, which presents the empirical findings of the 602 interviews collected. It begins with demographic and economic characteristics of the participants before focusing on migrants’ attitudes and behaviors regarding remittance sending, using financial services, and savings and investment. Given the current environment for remittance service providers in the UK (and in several other countries) and the global commitment to reducing remittance costs, there is a focus on the service providers used and the costs incurred. Finally, the report concludes with a summary of the main findings and provides recommendations on addressing the barriers and issues faced by migrants in London regarding financial and remittance services, as well as potential areas of further inquiry.

Although keeping bank supervision independent from macroprudential supervision may ensure more checks and balances, placing bank supervision in the central bank could exploit synergies with macroprudential supervision. This paper studies whether placing microprudential supervision of banks, typically the systemic part of the financial system, under the same roof as financial stability policy, typically entrusted to the central bank, can improve financial stability. Specifically, the paper analyzes whether having bank supervision in the central bank mitigated the likelihood of banking crises during 2007–12. The analysis conditions on crisis indicators commonly found in the early-warning models of banking crises, the quality of microprudential supervision, and the quality of macroprudential supervision. The authors find that countries with deeper financial markets and those undergoing rapid financial deepening can better foster financial stability when they put bank supervision in the central bank.

This Technical Note was prepared in the context of a joint World Bank-IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina during October-November 2014. Financial inclusion in Bosnia and Herzegovina performs relatively well compared to peers, but gaps remain for selected market segments. Financial sector development and access to finance for firms is constrained by weak domestic demand, high collateral requirements and inadequate credit enforcement mechanisms.

This paper is organized as follows: this introduction is followed by a primer on the industry and on the evolution of the microfinance sector. The authors then examine the structure of the microfinance industry, (a) NGOs, cooperatives and credit unions, and commercialized vehicles; how they differ and why corporate governance differs according to the nature of the MFI; and (b) large networks, investment and bank-holding groups, and social services/faith-based groups. The authors then consider how corporate governance evolves and develops in MFIs as their structure and ownership changes. This is followed by an examination of the recurring issues and growing risks in the microfinance industry. The authors conclude with a look at the responses of governments, investors, and the industry itself to these issues and risks and propose some next steps.

This paper examines the effect of finance on long-term economic growth using Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions. The literature largely focuses on financial indicators that assess the financial depth of banks and stock markets. These indicators are examined jointly with newly developed indicators that assess the stability and efficiency of financial markets. Once the finance-growth regressions are subjected to model uncertainty,the results suggest that commonly used indicators of financial development are not robustly related to long-term growth. However, the findings from the global sample indicate that one newly developed indicator -- the efficiency of financial intermediaries -- is robustly related to long-term growth.

The FSAP mission to Moldova included an assessment of the financial crisis resolution framework, focusing on bank resolution arrangements. The FSAP did not include an assessment of crisis resolution arrangements in respect of insurance, Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI) or other types of financial institutions. However, many of the findings and recommendations made in this report in relation to bank crisis resolution are also likely to be pertinent to other parts of the financial sector. Accordingly, the authorities are encouraged to draw on this Technical Note to assist them in reviewing the crisis resolution framework applicable to insurance, FMI and other categories of financial institution. The assessment was undertaken having regard to the principles set out in the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB’s) key attributes of effective resolution regimes for financial institutions (key attributes). In undertaking this assessment, the mission reviewed relevant legislation applicable to bank crisis resolution, particularly the law on financial institutions and the Law on the National Bank of Moldova. It also reviewed the government decree establishing the NCFS and the MOU established for members of the NCFS.

This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.

The importance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to economic development and job creation is increasingly recognized across the world. With an expected 58 percent of gross value added in 2012, SMEs are perceived to be the backbone of the economy especially within the European Union (EU). Although they faced particularly challenging economic conditions in 2011-12, SMEs within the EU still account for more than 98 percent of all enterprises and 67 percent of total employment. For such businesses, access to finance is a key factor for business start-up, development, survival, and growth. In September-October 2012, the World Bank Centre for financial reporting reform (CFRR) surveyed Austrian banks with a view to understanding the role played by financial information and audits in lending decisions. Respondents to the survey represent approximately one third of the sector based on total assets. The survey also assessed how banks measure the quality of the financial information they receive as part of a loan application. The purpose of this report is to inform the accounting and auditing profession, policy makers, and SMEs and their representative institutions about banks’ requirements and expectations regarding the scope of financial information provided by SMEs when applying for a credit.

Agriculture and agribusiness play an important role in the Zambian economy, contributing around 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in recent years and about 12 percent of national export earnings. Agriculture employs nearly 70 percent of the labor force and remains the main source of income and employment for most of the people living in rural areas. The objective of the Zambia agribusiness indicators (ABI) country report is to examine factors that have affected agricultural productivity, market access, and the policy environment for agriculture in Zambia. This report presents findings of a data collection exercise carried out to compile a set of pilot ABI for Zambia. The pilot indicators presented are based on a review of the literature, government statistical bulletins, and primary interviews in the seed, fertilizer, mechanization, agricultural finance, and transport subsectors. The resulting indicators are presented in matrix form, together with notes indicating the specific data source (or sources) used for each indicator. A set of questionnaires was developed for this part of the exercise based on guidelines. Perception indicators on the quality of road infrastructure and other transport sector issues were added to supplement the checklist guidelines. The anticipated impact of the presentation of country performances will be to raise the competitiveness of African agriculture by bringing into sharper focus measures of how individual countries are transitioning towards a more commercial agriculture. This report consists of following seven chapters: chapter one gives introduction; chapter two presents access to and use of improved seed; chapter three focuses on fertilizer access and availability; chapter four focuses on access to farm machinery and tractor hire services; chapter five presents access to agricultural and agri-enterprise finance; chapter six gives cost and efficiency of transport in Zambia; and chapter seven presents policy and enabling environment for agribusiness development.

Using a central bank legislation database, this paper documents and analyzes worldwide institutional arrangements for central bank lending to the government and identifies international practices. Key findings are: (i) in most advanced countries, central banks do not finance government expenditure; (ii) in a large number of emerging and developing countries, short-term financing is allowed in order to smooth out tax revenue fluctuations; (iii) in most countries, the terms and conditions of these loans are typically established by law, such that the amount is capped at a small proportion of annual government revenues, loans are priced at market interest rates, and their maturity falls within the same fiscal year; and (iv) in the vast majority of countries, financing other areas of the state, such as provincial governments and public enterprises, is not allowed. The paper does not address central banks' financial support during financial crises.

The period following the 2000-01 crisis was marked by a successful disinflation program sustained through inflation targeting and fiscal discipline in Turkey. This paper studies the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on credit growth during this period. Using quarterly bank-level data covering 2002-08, we find evidence that liquidity-constrained banks have sharper decline in lending during contractionary monetary policies and that crowding-out effect disappears more for banks with a retail-banking focus when fiscal policies are prudent.The results are statistically weak, suggesting that bank lending channel is not strong in Turkey and government finances has limited direct impact on credit.

Earlier studies have documented that foreign banks charge lower lending rates and interest spreads than domestic banks. We hypothesize that this may stem from the superior efficiency of foreign entrants that they decide to pass onto borrowers (“performance hypothesis”), but could also reflect a different loan allocation with respect to borrower transparency, loan maturity and currency (“portfolio composition hypothesis”). We are able to differentiate between the above hypotheses thanks to a novel dataset containing detailed bank-specific information for the Polish banking industry. Our findings demonstrate that banks differ significantly in terms of portfolio composition and we attest to the “portfolio composition hypothesis” by showing that, having controlled for portfolio composition, there are no differences in lending rates between banks.

Lending practices of commercial banks in Afghanistan were analyzed using CAMEL ratings. Statistically significant correlations were found: Banks with worse ratings (a) had more lending to domestic clients and (b) paid less tax. There was no statistically significant relationship between profits and total assets or between lending/assets versus profit/assets. Interviews of senior management of 8 banks accounting for about 90 percent of the commercial banking system corroborated evidence that poorly rated banks lend to domestic clients, whereas highly rated banks do not lend. Banks that lend extensively domestically engage in extra-judicial, non-traditional contract enforcement.

The paper analyzes the challenges for the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) to be an effective lender of last resort (LOLR) as part of a modern banking crisis resolution framework. The main results from the theoretical model of the ECCB's institutional arrangement are that the majority of currency union members may veto emergency lending in the case of a member-specific shock, as such lending may endanger the stability of the currency board (by lowering the central bank's international reserves, thus raising devaluation risk). However, in the presence of contagion across countries, all currency union members have a vested interest in liquidity supply from the central bank. A key policy recommendation is that currency union members need a stronger fiscal position to continue to access international financial markets and sustain the exchange rate peg.

The volume of credit extended by a bank can be an informative signal of its abilities in loan selection and management. It is shown that, under asymmetric information, banks may therefore rationally lend more than they would otherwise in order to demonstrate their quality, thus negatively affecting financial system soundness. Small shifts in technology and uncertainty associated with new technology may lead to large jumps in equilibrium outcomes. Prudential measures and supervision are therefore warranted.

This Selected Issues paper examines competitiveness and the equilibrium real exchange rate for Ghana. It estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana to establish to what extent real effective exchange rate (REER) movements have been driven by an adjustment to its equilibrium values, consistent with changing fundamentals. The paper discusses measures of Ghana’s external competitiveness other than the gap between the actual and the estimated equilibrium REER. Achievements, challenges, and priorities in the areas of public financial management, wage policy, tax administration, and tax policy are also described in detail.

This technical note on financing of the private sector for Mexico describes the evolution, composition, and determinants of financing to the nonfinancial private sector in Mexico between 2000 and 2005. Equity issuance has not played an important role in financing the private sector in Mexico during 2000–05. The number of nonfinancial private sector issuers actually declined from 173 in 2000 to 155 at the end of 2005. The stock market displays a high level of concentration, with the top 10 companies representing close to 70 percent of market capitalization.

This Selected Issues paper examines the performance of Uruguay’s exports, external balances, and relative price movements over the past decade and applies the IMF’s standard external sector assessment tools to Uruguay. The results indicate that Uruguay has made important strides in export performance, including expanding markets shares over the past decade, driven by trade competitiveness gains. The current account deficit has remained well contained and more than fully financed by foreign direct investment over the past decade, notwithstanding external shocks. At the same time, the real exchange rate has appreciated strongly in recent years. Standard IMF equilibrium real exchange rate valuation models also suggest that the Uruguayan peso is slightly stronger than its equilibrium level.

This paper provides evidence that central bank interventions had a statistically significant impact on easing stress in unsecured interbank markets during the first phase of the subprime crisis which began in July 2007. Extraordinary liquidity provisions, such as the Term Auction Facility by the Federal Reserve, are analyzed. First a decomposition of the Libor-OIS spread indicates that credit premia increased in importance as the crisis deepened. Second, using Markov switching models, central bank operations are then graphically associated with reductions in term funding stress. Finally, bivariate VAR and GARCH models are adopted to econometrically quantified these impacts. While helpful in compressing Libor spreads, the economic magnitudes of central interventions have overall not been very large.

This Selected Issues paper assesses the youth unemployment problem in advanced European economies, especially the euro area. Youth unemployment rates increased sharply in the euro area after the crisis. Much of these increases can be explained by output dynamics and the greater sensitivity of youth unemployment to economic activity compared with adult unemployment. Labor market institutions also play an important role, especially the tax wedge, minimum wages, and spending on active labor market policies. The paper highlights that policies to address youth unemployment should be comprehensive and country specific, focusing on reviving growth and implementing structural reforms.