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Extreme climate events such as droughts, cold snaps, and hurricanes can be powerful agents of natural selection, producing acute selective pressures very different from the everyday pressures acting on organisms. However, it remains unknown whether these infrequent but severe disruptions are quickly erased by quotidian selective forces, or whether they have the potential to durably shape biodiversity patterns across regions and clades. Here, we show that hurricanes have enduring evolutionary impacts on the morphology of anoles, a diverse Neotropical lizard clade. We first demonstrate a transgenerational effect of extreme selection on toepad area for two populations struck by hurricanes in 2017. Given this short-term effect of hurricanes, we then asked whether populations and species that more frequently experienced hurricanes have larger toepads. Using 70 y of historical hurricane data, we demonstrate that, indeed, toepad area positively correlates with hurricane activity for both 12 island populations of Anolis sagrei and 188 Anolis species throughout the Neotropics. Extreme climate events are intensifying due to climate change and may represent overlooked drivers of biogeographic and large-scale biodiversity patterns., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Bergmann's rule-the tendency for body size to increase in colder environments-remains controversial today, despite 150 years of research. Considerable debate has revolved around whether the rule applies within or among species. However, this debate has generally not considered that clade-level relationships are caused by both intra- and interspecific effects. In this article, we implement a novel approach that allows for the separation of intra- and interspecific components of trait-environment relationships. We apply this approach to body size clines in two Caribbean clades of Anolis lizards and discover that their similar body size gradients are constructed in very different ways. We find inverse Bergmann's clines-high-elevation lizards are smaller bodied-for both the cybotes clade on Hispaniola and the sagrei clade on Cuba. However, on Hispaniola, the inverse cline is driven by interspecific differences, whereas intraspecific variation is responsible for the inverse cline on Cuba. Our results suggest that similar body size clines can be constructed through differing evolutionary and ecological processes, namely, through local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity (intraspecific clines) and/or size-ordered spatial sorting (interspecific clines). We propose that our approach can help integrate a divided research program by focusing on how the combined effects of intra- and interspecific processes can enhance or erode clade-level relationships at large biogeographic scales.

Understanding how quickly physiological traits evolve is a topic of great interest, particularly in the context of how organisms can adapt in response to climate warming. Adjustment to novel thermal habitats may occur either through behavioural adjustments, physiological adaptation or both. Here, we test whether rates of evolution differ among physiological traits in the cybotoids, a clade of tropical Anolis lizards distributed in markedly different thermal environments on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. We find that cold tolerance evolves considerably faster than heat tolerance, a difference that results because behavioural thermoregulation more effectively shields these organisms from selection on upper than lower temperature tolerances. Specifically, because lizards in very different environments behaviourally thermoregulate during the day to similar body temperatures, divergent selection on body temperature and heat tolerance is precluded, whereas night-time temperatures can only be partially buffered by behaviour, thereby exposing organisms to selection on cold tolerance. We discuss how exposure to selection on physiology influences divergence among tropical organisms and its implications for adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming.

Many oceanic islands are notable for their high endemism, suggesting that islands may promote unique assembly processes. However, mainland assemblages sometimes harbour comparable levels of endemism, suggesting that island biotas may not be as unique as is often assumed. Here, we test the uniqueness of island biotic assembly by comparing the rate of species turnover among islands and the mainland, after accounting for distance decay and environmental gradients. We modelled species turnover as a function of geographical and environmental distance for mainland (M-M) communities of Anolis lizards and Terrarana frogs, two clades that have diversified extensively on Caribbean islands and the mainland Neotropics. We compared mainland-island (M-I) and island-island (I-I) species turnover with predictions of the M-M model. If island assembly is not unique, then the M-M model should successfully predict M-I and I-I turnover, given geographical and environmental distance. We found that M-I turnover and, to a lesser extent, I-I turnover were significantly higher than predicted for both clades. Thus, in the first quantitative comparison of mainland-island species turnover, we confirm the long-held but untested assumption that island assemblages accumulate biodiversity differently than their mainland counterparts.

Aim: Rising global temperatures are predicted to increase ectotherms' body temperatures, benefitting some species but threatening others. Biophysical models predict a key role for shade in buffering these effects, but the difficulty of measuring shade across broad spatial extents limits predictions of ectotherms' thermal futures at the global scale. Here, we extend biophysical models of ectotherm body temperature to include effects of forest canopy shade, via leaf area index, and test whether considering remotely‐sensed canopy density improves predictions of body temperature variation in heavily shaded habitats. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1990–2010. Major taxa studied: Lizards. Methods: We test predictions from biophysical ecological theory for how body temperature should vary with microclimate for 269 lizard populations across open, semi‐open and closed habitats worldwide. We extend existing biophysical models to incorporate canopy shade effects via leaf area index, test whether body temperature varies with canopy density as predicted by theory, and evaluate the extent to which incorporating canopy density improves model performance in heavily shaded areas. Results: We find that body temperatures in open habitats, like deserts, vary with air temperature and incident solar radiation as predicted by biophysical equations, but these relationships break down in forests, where body temperatures become unpredictable. Incorporating leaf area index into our models revealed lower body temperatures in more heavily shaded environments, restoring the predictability of body temperature in forests. Conclusions: Although biophysical ecological theory can predict ectotherm body temperature in open habitats, like deserts, these relationships decay in closed forests. Models incorporating remotely‐sensed data on canopy density improved predictability of body temperatures in these habitats, providing an avenue to incorporate canopy shade effects into predictions of animals' vulnerability to climate change. These results highlight the thermal threat of changes in canopy structure and loss of forest cover for the world's ectotherms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study was to test the link between climatic niche dynamics and species diversification in Anolis on islands and on the mainland. We tested the hypotheses that lineages in warmer climates and with narrow climate niches diversified more than lineages in cold climates and with broad climate niches. We also tested the hypothesis that species-rich clades exhibit greater niche diversity than species-poor clades. Location Neotropics. Methods We collated occurrence records for 328 Anolis species to estimate niche breadth, niche position and occupied niche space (as a proxy for niche diversity). We compared niche breadth between insular and mainland Anolis species and among Anolis clades, controlling for the potential confounding effect of range size. Using two approaches (clade-based and QuaSSE) we explored the association between niche metrics and diversification rates in Anolis lizards. Results We found that Caribbean Anolis had a narrower niche breadth and niche space occupation compared to mainland anoles after controlling for range size differences. There was a significant association between niche traits (mean niche position and niche breadth) and diversification in anoles. Anole lineages with narrow niche breadths and that occupy warmer areas exhibited higher speciation rates than those with broader niche breadths and that occupy cold areas. Similarly, clades with higher total diversification exhibit more niche diversity than clades with lower total diversification. Main conclusions Climatic niche attributes play a role in anole diversification with some differences between mainland and insular anole lineages. Climatic niche differences between regions and clades likely are related to differences in niche evolutionary rates. This also suggests that climate plays a strong role in shaping species richness between and within mainland and islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]