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We review the global dynamics of livestock disease over the last two decades. Our imperfect ability to detect and report disease hinders assessment of trends, but we suggest that, although endemic diseases continue their historic decline in wealthy countries, poor countries experience static or deteriorating animal health and epidemic diseases show both regression and expansion. At a mesolevel, disease is changing in terms of space and host, which is illustrated by bluetongue, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus, and it is also emerging, as illustrated by highly pathogenic avian influenza and others. Major proximate drivers of change in disease dynamics include ecosystem change, ecosystem incursion, and movements of people and animals; underlying these are demographic change and an increasing demand for livestock products. We identify three trajectories of global disease dynamics: (i) the worried well in developed countries (demanding less risk while broadening the circle of moral concern), (ii) the intensifying and market-orientated systems of many developing countries, where highly complex disease patterns create hot spots for disease shifts, and (iii) the neglected cold spots in poor countries, where rapid change in disease dynamics is less likely but smallholders and pastoralists continue to struggle with largely preventable and curable livestock diseases.

Market access for livestock products from Africa has traditionally been limited by the presence of certain infectious diseases that pose risks to animal and human health. However, an increasingly discussed option for widening that access is commodity-based trade (CBT) focusing on the health and safety attributes of the product rather than the disease status of the country of origin. There have, however, been few analyses on the potential economic impacts and unintended consequences of such an approach. This article examines the principles behind a dramatic shift in approach to trading opportunities that CBT might bring, exploring both technical and economic considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While Ethiopia is Africa's largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia's export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]