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Background and Aim: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has been predicting liver decompensation and survival in cirrhotics. The aim of our study was to investigate if spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by 2D shear‐wave elastography could predict better the probability of decompensation and mortality, compared with LSM and other parameters. Methods: Consecutive cirrhotic patients were recruited between 1/2017 and 12/2021. LSM and SSM were performed at baseline and epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. Clinical events were recorded every 3 months. Results: Totally, 177 patients were followed for a mean period of 31 ± 18 months. In Cox regression analysis, only SSM was independently associated with the probability of decompensation (HR: 1.063, 95% CI: 1.009–1.120; P = 0.021), offering an AUROC of 0.710 (P = 0.003) for predicting 1‐year liver decompensation (NPV: 81.1% for the cut‐off point of 37 kPa). The occurrence of death/liver transplantation was independently associated only with higher SSM (HR: 1.043; 95% CI:1.003–1.084; P = 0.034). The AUROC of SSM for predicting 1‐year death/liver transplantation was 0.72 (P = 0.006) (NPV: 95% for the cut‐off of 38.8 kPa). The performance of SSM to predict the 1‐year death/liver transplantation increased in high‐risk patients (CTP: B/C plus MELD >10 plus LSM > 20 kPa), giving an AUROC of 0.80 (P < 0.001). Only 1/26 high‐risk patients with SSM < 38.8 kPa died during the first year of follow‐up (NPV: 96.4%). Conclusions: SSM was the only factor independently associated with the probability of decompensation and occurrence of death, showing better diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of 1‐year decompensation or death compared with LSM and MELD score. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preventing disease progression and viral suppression are the main goals of antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography is a reliable non-invasive method to assess liver fibrosis in patients with CHB. Our aim was to explore factors that may affect changes in LSMs during long term tenofovir (TDF) monotherapy in a well characterized cohort of patients with compensated CHB. Methods: We analyzed serial LSMs in 103 adult patients with CHB who were on TDF monotherapy and had at least three LSMs over a period of 90 months. Results: Twenty-five (24%) patients had advanced fibrosis at baseline. A significant decline in mean LSM between baseline and last visit (8.7 ± 6.2 kPa vs. 6.7 ± 3.3, p = 10− 3) was observed. Twenty-four (23%) patients had progression of liver fibrosis with mean increase in liver stiffness of 2.8 kPa (range: 0.2–10.2 kPa). Multivariate analysis showed that BMI ≥ 25 (OR, 0.014; 95% CI, 0.001–0.157; p = 0.001) and advanced fibrosis (OR, 5.169; 95% CI, 1.240–21.540; p = 0.024) were independently associated with a fibrosis regression of > 30% of liver stiffness compared to baseline value. Conclusions: In CHB patients TDF monotherapy resulted in liver fibrosis regression, especially in patients with advanced fibrosis. Despite the successful antiviral effect of TDF, 1 out of 4 patients had liver fibrosis progression. Obesity and advanced fibrosis at baseline were independently associated with significant liver fibrosis regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop in patients with chronic hepatitis (CHB) even after 5 years of oral therapy and cannot be easily predicted. We assessed predictors of HCC development and the need for HCC surveillance in this setting. Of 1,951 adult Caucasians with CHB included in the PAGE-B cohort, 1,427 (73%) had completed >5 years of follow-up under therapy without developing HCC by year 5. Median follow-up was 8.4 years from treatment onset. Points-based risk scores were developed to predict HCC risk after year 5. In years 5–12, HCC was diagnosed in 33/1,427 (2.3%) patients with cumulative incidences of 2.4%, 3.2% and 3.8% at 8, 10 and 12 years, respectively. Older age or age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness (LSM) ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased HCC risk. The HCC incidence was lower in non-cirrhotics than cirrhotics at baseline with year-5 LSM <12; among cirrhotics at baseline, it was lower in those with year-5 LSM <12 than ≥12 kPa. CAGE-B score was based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 and SAGE-B score was based only on age and LSM at year 5 (c-index = 0.809–0.814, 0.805–0.806 after bootstrap validation). Both scores offered 100% negative predictive values for HCC development in their low risk groups. In Caucasians with CHB, the HCC risk after the first 5 years of antiviral therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and LSM at year 5. CAGE-B and particularly SAGE-B represent simple and reliable risk scores for HCC prediction and surveillance beyond year 5 of therapy. In Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and liver stiffness at year 5, which can provide simple and reliable risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction and surveillance beyond year 5. In patients with cirrhosis at baseline, liver stiffness <12 kPa at year 5 is associated with lower HCC risk, but surveillance may be still required. • Study conducted in Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, with or without cirrhosis, after 5 years of entecavir/tenofovir. • Age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased risk of HCC. • CAGE-B score based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 reliably predicted HCC risk >5 years. • SAGE-B score based only on age and LSM at year 5 was also a reliable predictor of HCC incidence >5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]