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Background: Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that 'curative therapies' can be successfully applied. The term 'curative' is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various 'curative' therapies., Methods: We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receiving radiofrequency (RFA) or microwave (MWA) ablation and used flexible parametric modelling to determine the curative fraction. The results of this analysis were then combined with our previous estimations to provide a simple calculator applicable to all patients undergoing potentially curative therapies., Results: The cure fraction was 18.3% rising to about 40% in patients with good liver function and very small tumours., Conclusion: Cure for HCC treated with ablation occurs in the order of 20% to 30%, similar to that achievable by resection but much inferior to transplantation where the analogous figure is >70%. We provide a 'calculator' that permits clinicians to estimate the chance of cure for any individual patient, based on readily available clinical features., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objective: To evaluate the effect of a liver transplantation (LT) program on the outcomes of resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)., Background: Surgical treatment of HCC includes both hepatic resection (HR) and LT. However, the presence of cirrhosis and the possibility of recurrence make the management of this disease complex and probably different according to the presence of a LT program., Methods: Patients undergoing HR for HCC between January 2005 and December 2019 were identified from a national database of HCC. The main study outcomes were major surgical complications according to the Comprehensive Complication Index, posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF), 90-day mortality, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Secondary outcomes were salvage liver transplantation (SLT) and postrecurrence survival., Results: A total of 3202 patients were included from 25 hospitals over the study period. Three of 25 (12%) had an LT program. The presence of an LT program within a center was associated with a reduced probability of PHLF (odds ratio=0.38) but not with overall survival and disease-free survival. There was an increased probability of SLT when HR was performed in a transplant hospital (odds ratio=12.05). Among transplant-eligible patients, those who underwent LT had a significantly longer postrecurrence survival., Conclusions: This study showed that the presence of a LT program was associated with decreased PHLF rates and an increased probability to receive SLT in case of recurrence., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Textbook Outcome (TO) is inclusive of quality indicators and it not been provided for trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)., Materials and Methods: Data on treatment-naïve HCC patients receiving TACE from 10 centers were reviewed. TO was defined as "no post-TACE grade 3-4 complications, no prolonged hospital stay (defined as a post-procedure stay ≤ 75th percentile of the median values from the total cohort), no 30-day mortality/readmission and the achievement of an objective response (OR) at post-TACE imaging." Grade of adverse event was classified according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events and short-term efficacy was assessed by response. Pooled estimates were calculated to account for hospital's effect and risk-adjustment was applied to allow for diversity of patients in each center., Results: A total of 1124 patients (2014-2018) fulfilling specific inclusion criteria were included. Baseline clinical features showed considerable heterogeneity (I 2  > 0.75) across centers. TACE-related mortality was absent in 97.6%, readmission was not required after 94.9% of procedures, 91.5% of patients had no complication graded 3-4, 71.8% of patients did not require prolonged hospitalization, OR of the target lesion was achieved in 68.5%. Risk-adjustment showed that all indicators were achieved in 43.1% of patients, and this figure was similar across centers. The median overall survival for patients who achieved all indicators was 33.1 months, 11.9 months longer than for patients who did not., Conclusions: A useful benchmark for TACE in HCC patients has been developed, which provides an indication of survival and allows for a comparison of treatment quality across different hospitals., (© 2023. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature and the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE).)

Background and Aims: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib have not been compared in a randomised controlled trial. We conducted a retrospective multi-centre study to compare the clinical efficacy and safety of lenvatinib and atezolizumab with bevacizumab as a first-line treatment for patients with unresectable HCC in the real-world scenario., Methods: Clinical features of lenvatinib and atezolizumab plus bevacizumab patients were balanced through inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) methodology, which weights patients' characteristics and measured outcomes of each patient in both treatment arms. Overall survival (OS) was the primary end-point., Results: The analysis included 1341 patients who received lenvatinib, and 864 patients who received atezolizumab plus bevacizumab. After IPTW adjustment, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab did not show a survival advantage over lenvatinib HR 0.97 (p = 0.739). OS was prolonged by atezolizumab plus bevacizumab over lenvatinib in viral patients (HR: 0.76; p = 0.024). Conversely, OS was prolonged by lenvatinib in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis/non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (HR: 1.88; p = 0.014). In the IPTW-adjusted population, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab provided better safety profile for most of the recorded adverse events., Conclusion: Our study did not identify any meaningful difference in OS between atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and lenvatinib. Although some hints are provided suggesting that patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis/non-alcoholic fatty liver disease might benefit more from lenvatinib therapy and patients with viral aetiology more from atezolizumab plus bevacizumab., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests. L Rimassa has received consulting fees from Amgen, ArQule, AstraZeneca, Basilea, Bayer, BMS, Celgene, Eisai, Exelixis, Genenta, Hengrui, Incyte, Ipsen, IQVIA, Lilly, MSD, Nerviano Medical Sciences, Roche, Sanofi, Servier, Taiho Oncology, Zymeworks; lecture fees from AbbVie, Amgen, Bayer, Eisai, Gilead, Incyte, Ipsen, Lilly, Merck Serono, Roche, Sanofi; travel expenses from AstraZeneca; and institutional research funding from Agios, ARMO BioSciences, AstraZeneca, BeiGene, Eisai, Exelixis, Fibrogen, Incyte, Ipsen, Lilly, MSD, Nerviano Medical Sciences, Roche, Zymeworks. A.C.G. has received grants and personal fees from MSD, Eisai, Bayer, and is an advisor for MSD, Eisai, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca and GSK. M.K. has received grants from Taiho Pharmaceuticals, Chugai Pharmaceuticals, Otsuka, Takeda, Sumitomo Dainippon-Sumitomo, Daiichi Sankyo, AbbVie, Astellas Pharma, and Bristol-Myers Squibb; has received grants and personal fees from MSD, Eisai, and Bayer, and is an adviser for MSD, Eisai, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and ONO Pharmaceutical. F.P. has received consulting or lecture fees from Consulting or lecture fees in the last two years from: Astrazeneca, Bayer, Bracco, EISAI, ESAOTE, Exact Sciences, IPSEN; MSD; Roche, Samsung, Tiziana Life Sciences. F.F received speaker honoraria and consultant fees from Abbvie, Eisai and CSL Behring and received travel support from Ipsen. T.P. consults for and received grants from Bayer. She also received grants from Lilly and Roche. There are no conflicts of interest among the other authors., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The Textbook Outcome (TO) is a quality indicator accounting for both efficacy and safety. Herein, we aimed to assess TO in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA)., Methods: All consecutive patients undergoing RFA for HCC between 2014 and 2020, were included. TO was defined as 1) no post-RFA complications or mortality within 30 days after RFA, 2) no prolonged hospital stay 3) no 30-day readmission and 4) the achievement of a complete response (CR) of the target lesion/s at 1-month., Results: Overall, 50.3% of 376 patients fulfilled all the quality indicators to achieve TO. Probabilities of TO achievement decreased in presence of moderate comorbidities (odds ratio[OR]:0.43; 95%C.I.:0.22-0.80;p=0.008), a performance status of 1 (OR: 0.58;95%C.I.:0.37-0.89; p=0.013), the treatment of 2 nodules (OR: 0.71; 95%C.I.:0.41-0.98; p=0.048) or ≥3 nodules (OR: 0.41; 95%C.I.: 0.22 - 0.78; p = 0.007); the treatment of 2-3cm nodules (OR:0.49;95%C.I.:0.31-0.79;p=0.003) or >3cm nodules (OR: 0.36;95%C.I.:0.18-0.73;p=0.004). Risk-stratification provided TO achievement ranging between 77.9% and 14.3%. Patients with TO also had improved survival (p = 0.028)., Conclusion: About half of patients get TO from RFA. Stratification by clinical and tumoral characteristic should aid provision of RFA in clinical practice, facilitating patient information and providing reference values for future comparative studies., (Copyright © 2021 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background/purpose: Quality measures in surgery are important to establish appropriate levels of care and to develop improvement strategies. The purpose of this study was to provide risk-adjusted outcome measures after laparoscopic liver resection (LLR)., Methods: Data from a prospective, multicenter database involving 4318 patients submitted to LLRs in 41 hospitals from an intention-to-treat approach (2014-2020) were used to analyze heterogeneity (I 2 ) among centers and to develop a risk-adjustment model on outcome measures through multivariable mixed-effect models to account for confounding due to case-mix., Results: Involved hospitals operated on very different patients: the largest heterogeneity was observed for operating in the presence of previous abdominal surgery (I 2 :79.1%), in cirrhotic patients (I 2 :89.3%) suffering from hepatocellular carcinoma (I 2 :88.6%) or requiring associated intestinal resections (I 2 :82.8%) and in regard to technical complexity (I 2 for the most complex LLRs: 84.1%). These aspects determined substantial or large heterogeneity in overall morbidity (I 2 :84.9%), in prolonged in-hospital stay (I 2 :86.9%) and in conversion rate (I 2 :73.4%). Major complication had medium heterogeneity (I 2 :46.5%). The heterogeneity of mortality was null. Risk-adjustment accounted for all of this variability and the final risk-standardized conversion rate was 8.9%, overall morbidity was 22.1%, major morbidity was 5.1% and prolonged in-hospital stay was 26.0%. There were no outliers among the 41 participating centers. An online tool was provided., Conclusions: A benchmark for LLRs including all eligible patients was provided, suggesting that surgeons can act accordingly in the interest of the patient, modifying their approach in relation to different indications and different experience, but finally providing the same quality of care., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery.)

Background: Recently, three published phase III trials highlighted the superiority of investigational drugs compared to placebo, thus leading to their approval in the second-line setting. We report here a MAIC of second-line MKI options for patients with HCC previously treated with sorafenib using individual real-world data of regorafenib and aggregate data of second-line cabozantinib from the CELESTIAL trial., Methods: Data from 278 patients who received regorafenib as second-line therapy after sorafenib failure for unresectable HCC were used as IPD. Data inclusion were adapted to those reported in the CELESTIAL trial in the subset of patients who received sorafenib as the only prior therapy. Survival medians and rates were obtained from Kaplan-Meier curves, and differences between regorafenib and cabozantinib groups were explored through Cox regression adjusted for weights originating from MAIC., Results: The median OS of the weighted regorafenib group was 11.1 months (IQR: 5.6-16.4) and 11.3 (IQR: 6.7-22.4) for cabozantinib; HR 0.83 (95%CI 0.62-1.09). The median PFS of the weighted regorafenib group was 3.0 months (IQR: 1.9-4.8) and 5.5 (IQR: 2.3-9.3) for cabozantinib; HR 0.50 (95%CI 0.41-0.62). In the subgroup who received prior sorafenib for < 3 months, the median OS of the regorafenib group was 6.5 months (IQR: 4.7-10.9) and 9.5 months (IQR: 5.9-18.2) for cabozantinib; HR 0.68 (95%CI 0.39-1.16). In the subgroup receiving prior sorafenib for 3 to < 6 months, the median OS of the regorafenib group was 8.0 months (IQR: 4.2-15.2) and 11.5 (IQR: 6.5-23.9) for cabozantinib; HR 0.66 (95%CI 0.42-1.02). In the subgroup receiving prior sorafenib for ≥ 6 months, the median OS of the regorafenib group was 13.4 (IQR: 8.1-46.5) and 12.3 (IQR: 6.6-22.9) for cabozantinib; HR 0.89 (95%CI 0.52-1.51)., Conclusion: Our results confirmed no differences between regorafenib and cabozantinib in terms of OS. However, in earlier progressors on prior sorafenib a larger benefit might be expected from cabozantinib treatment., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Objectives: To evaluate the inter-observer reliability of modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (mRECIST) of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing neo-adjuvant treatments before liver transplant (LT). The agreement of tumor number, size, transplant criteria, and the radiological-pathological concordance were also assessed., Methods: A total of 180 radiological studies before/after neo-adjuvant therapies performed on 90 patients prior to LT were reviewed from three expert centers. Kappa-statistic and intraclass correlation (ICC) were evaluated on mRECIST and on tumoral features. Complete radiological response (CR) was compared with complete pathological response (CPR)., Results: Before neo-adjuvant therapies, the agreement on tumor number, size, and transplant criteria ranged from moderate (defined as ICC of 0.41-0.60) to almost perfect (ICC of 0.81-0.99), being higher with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) than CT (0.657-0.899 and 0.422-0.776, respectively). After neo-adjuvant therapies, the agreement decreased, as ICCs ranged between 0.518 and 0.663 with MRI and between 0.508 and 0.677 with CT. Concordant mRECIST pairs were 201 of 270 reviews (76.3%) with a kappa of 0.648 indicating substantial agreement. When the three observers completely agreed on CR, the positive predictive value for CPR was 51.6%. The negative predictive value was 94.2% with a kappa of 0.512 indicating fair agreement between radiology and pathology., Conclusions: mRECIST agreement was substantial among the three observers involved. The agreement on tumor number, size, and transplant criteria ranged from moderate to almost perfect, with the highest ICCs obtained with MRI before neo-adjuvant therapies. Finally, the predictive value of mRECIST in the diagnosis of CPR was only fair., Key Points: • The review of 180 radiological exams of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma before and after neo-adjuvant therapies showed that the concordance among three different raters on mRECIST diagnosis was substantial. • The inter-observer reliability on fulfilment of transplant criteria slightly decreased when evaluated through CT and after loco-regional therapies. • The radiological diagnosis of complete response after neo-adjuvant therapies was predictive of complete pathological response in only 51.6% of cases., (© 2021. European Society of Radiology.)

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumoral thrombosis (PVTT) represents a major concern especially in the field of deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT). However, when receiving transarterial radioembolization (TARE), a considerable percentage of such patients are able to achieve a radiologic complete response with adequate survival rates. In this pilot prospective study, we evaluated the effect of TARE in downstaging HCC patients with PVTT to meet criteria for DDLT. Between May 2013 and November 2016, patients were evaluated to be enrolled into our "Superdownstaging" protocol. Patients received yttrium-90 TARE and were enlisted for DDLT in case of complete and sustained (6 months) radiological response. Patients with tumor thrombus in the main trunk and/or in the contralateral portal vein branch were excluded. TARE was effective in downstaging and receiving DDLT in 5/17 patients (29.4%). The 5-year overall survival was significantly higher in patients who underwent DDLT compared with those who were not transplanted (60.0% versus 0.0%, P = 0.03). Three out of 5 patients developed recurrence within 1 year after LT. The current series showed a clear survival gain in those patients who were able to receive DDLT after TARE but careful selection for DDLT is however advised., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Liver Transplantation published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is frequently diagnosed as multinodular. This study aims to assess prognostic factors for survival and identify patients with multiple HCC who may benefit from surgery beyond the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification indications., Methods: This retrospective study included all the consecutive patients from 4 Italian tertiary centers receiving liver resection for naive multiple HCC between 1990 and 2012 to have a potential follow-up of 5 years., Results: Included patients were 144. Ninety-day morbidity and mortality rates were 38.3% and 8.3%, respectively. The 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 33.3% and 19.1%, respectively. Tumor size <3 cm, bilirubin, Child-Pugh A, BCLC-A stage, being within "up-to-7" criteria, and minor resections resulted in prognostic factors. The Child-Pugh score resulted in an independent prognostic factor., Conclusions: Surgery may be related to good outcomes in selected patients with multiple HCC., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no financial relationship or any conflict of interests and they have nothing to disclose. All authors acknowledge absence of conflict of interest of their co-authors, to the best of their knowledge., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Aims: In patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), macrovascular invasion (MaVI) limits treatment options and decreases survival. Detailed data on the relationship between MaVI extension and patients' characteristics, and its impact on patients' outcome are limited. We evaluated the prevalence and extension of MaVI in a large cohort of consecutive HCC patients, analysing its association with liver disease and tumour characteristics, as well as with treatments performed and patients' survival., Methods: We analysed data of 4774 patients diagnosed with HCC recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database (2008-2018). Recursive partition analysis (RPA) was performed to evaluate interactions between MaVI, clinical variables and treatment, exploring the inter-relationship determining overall survival., Results: MaVI prevalence was 11.1%, and median survival of these patients was 6.0 months (95% CI, 5.1-7.1). MaVI was associated with younger age at diagnosis, presence of symptoms, worse Performance Status (PS) and liver function, high alphafetoprotein levels and large HCCs. MaVI extension was associated with worse PS, ascites and greater impairment in liver function. RPA identified patients' categories with different treatment indications and survival, ranging from 2.4 months in those with PS > 1 and ascites, regardless of MaVI extension (receiving best supportive care in 90.3% of cases), to 14.1 months in patients with PS 0-1, no ascites and Vp1-Vp2 MaVI (treated with surgery in 19.1% of cases)., Conclusions: MaVI presence and extension, together with PS and ascites, significantly affect patients' survival and treatment selection. The decision tree based on these parameters may help assess patients' prognosis and inform therapeutic decisions., (© 2021 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Purpose: Data from common clinical practice were used to generate balanced cohorts of patients receiving either sorafenib or lenvatinib, for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma, with the final aim to investigate their declared equivalence., Methods: Clinical features of lenvatinib and sorafenib patients were balanced through inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) methodology, which weights patients' characteristics and measured outcomes of each patient in both treatment arms. Overall survival was the primary endpoint and occurrence of adverse events was the secondary., Results: The analysis included 385 patients who received lenvatinib, and 555 patients who received sorafenib. In the unadjusted cohort, lenvatinib did not show a survival advantage over sorafenib (HR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.02). After IPTW adjustment, lenvatinib still not returned a survival advantage over sorafenib (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.62-1.07) even in presence of balanced baseline characteristics. Lenvatinib provided longer survival than sorafenib in patients previously submitted to TACE (HR: 0.69), with PS of 0 (HR: 0.73) or without extrahepatic disease (HR: 0.69)., Conclusion: Present results confirmed randomized controlled trial in the real-life setting, but also suggests that in earlier stages some benefit can be expected., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed superior progression-free and overall survival compared to sorafenib in the IMbrave150 trial. It would therefore be useful to compare the efficacy of lenvatinib and that of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab to determine if a benefit of one therapy against the other exists., Objective: The aim of the present report was to apply a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) to individual participant data (IPD) from patients treated with lenvatinib outside of randomized trials, to aggregate results derived from the IMbrave150 trial., Patients and Methods: Data from 455 patients who received lenvatinib as first-line systemic therapy for unresectable HCC represented the present IPD. Data inclusion were adapted to those reported in the IMbrave150 trial., Results: Overall survival on atezolizumab plus bevacizumab proved to be superior to lenvatinib (log-rank: 0.001) with a hazard ratio of 0.59 (95% confidence interval 0.46-0.75). The number needed to treat ranged between seven in the first 12 months and five at the 15th month., Conclusions: The present MAIC highlights that the combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab is superior to lenvatinib. However, updated data or sub-analyses of the IMbrave150 trial would provide more robust estimates for such a treatment comparison.

Background: Inflammation is a long-established hallmark of liver fibrosis and carcinogenesis. Eosinophils are emerging as crucial components of the inflammatory process influencing cancer development. The role of blood eosinophils in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving systemic treatment is an unexplored field., Objective: The objective of this study was to analyse the prognostic role of the baseline eosinophil count in patients with sorafenib-treated hepatocellular carcinoma., Patients and Methods: A training cohort of 92 patients with advanced- or intermediate-stage sorafenib-treated hepatocellular carcinoma and two validation cohorts of 65 and 180 patients were analysed. Overall survival and progression-free survival in relation to baseline eosinophil counts were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed., Results: A negative prognostic impact of low baseline eosinophil counts (< 50*10 9 /L) was demonstrated in all cohorts (training cohort: hazard ratio = 50.1, 95% confidence interval 11.6-216.5, p < 0.0001 for low vs high eosinophil counts; first validation cohort: hazard ratio = 4.55, 95% confidence interval 1.24-16.65, p = 0.022; second validation cohort: hazard ratio = 3.21, 95% confidence interval 1.83-5.64, p < 0.0001). Moreover, low eosinophil counts had a negative prognostic role in patients progressing on or intolerant to sorafenib who received second-line regorafenib, but not capecitabine or best supportive care., Conclusions: Our analysis identified baseline blood eosinophil counts as a new prognostic factor in patients with sorafenib-treated hepatocellular carcinoma. Concerning second-line therapies, eosinophil counts were associated with survival outcomes only in regorafenib-treated patients, suggesting a possible predictive role in this setting.

Aim: To assess the impact of the laparoscopic anatomic resections (LARs) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, analyzing the pooled short- and long-term outcomes of this technique and comparing it with the standard open approach [open anatomic resections (OAR)]. Material and Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for studies published between 2010 and 2020 concerning LAR for HCC. Results: After screening 311 articles, 10 studies with a total of 398 patients who underwent LAR for HCC were included. The pooled cohort included mostly male (76.6%), Child A (98.2%), with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related disease (60.5%). The pooled conversion rate was 7.3%. The pooled overall complication rate was 10.2 with a mortality rate of 1.0%. In the pooled analyses of only comparative studies, LAR group included 378 versus 455 in OAR. Operative time was longer in the LAR group (329 minutes versus 248; P  = .001). Blood loss (179 versus 331 mL; P  = .018) was lower in the LAR group. The pooled mean length of hospital stay was 8.4 days in LARs and 11.3 in OARs ( P  = .002). The pooled rate of postoperative complications was higher in the OAR group (25.3 versus 13.8; P  = .009), while mortality rates were similar. The LAR group had a pooled 3- and 5-year overall survival of 90.1 and 81.9 versus 83.5 and 80.7 of the OARs ( P  > .05), respectively. Conclusions: In conclusion, the LAR for HCC is safe and associated with decreased blood loss and length of hospital stay. Survival rates are comparable with those of the conventional open approach.

Background & Aims: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM), assessed by transient elastography (Fibroscan), has been demonstrated to predict post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients who undergo hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, other complications are also likely to be related to the underlying grade of liver fibrosis. Herein, we aimed to identify predictors of postoperative complications and to build and develop a novel nomogram able to identify patients at risk of developing severe complications., Methods: Data from patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 2006 and 2016 at 2 referral centres were retrospectively reviewed. All surgical complications were recorded and scored using the comprehensive complication index (CCI), ranging from 0 (uneventful course) to 100 (death). A CCI ≥26.2 was used as a threshold to define severe complications., Results: During the study period, 471 patients underwent hepatic resection for HCC. Among them, 50 patients (10.6%) had a CCI ≥26.2. Age, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and LSM values, together with serum albumin, were independent predictors of high CCI. The nomogram built on these variables was internally validated and showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.751). A regression equation to predict the CCI was also established by multiple linear regression analysis: [LSM (kPa) × 0.254] + [age (years) × 0.118] + [MELD score (pt.) × 1.050] - [albumin (g/dl) × 2.395] - 3.639., Conclusion: A novel nomogram, combining LSM values, age and liver function tests provided an excellent preoperative prediction of high CCI in patients with resectable HCC. This predictive model could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making., Lay Summary: Liver stiffness measurement is increasingly being used to assess the degree of liver fibrosis in patients with cirrhosis and/or chronic hepatitis. Using Fibroscan, we developed a novel nomogram to predict severe complications following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma, according to the new comprehensive complication index. This tool could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest that pertain to this work. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (Copyright © 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: In the context of liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), prediction models are used to ensure that the risk of post-LT recurrence is acceptably low. However, the weighting that 'response to neoadjuvant therapies' should have in such models remains unclear. Herein, we aimed to incorporate radiological response into the Metroticket 2.0 model for post-LT prediction of "HCC-related death", to improve its clinical utility., Methods: Data from 859 transplanted patients (2000-2015) who received neoadjuvant therapies were included. The last radiological assessment before LT was reviewed according to the modified RECIST criteria. Competing-risk analysis was applied. The added value of including radiological response into the Metroticket 2.0 was explored through category-based net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis., Results: At last radiological assessment prior to LT, complete response (CR) was diagnosed in 41.3%, partial response/stable disease (PR/SD) in 24.9% and progressive disease (PD) in 33.8% of patients. The 5-year rates of "HCC-related death" were 3.1%, 9.6% and 13.4% in those with CR, PR/SD, or PD, respectively (p <0.001). Log 10 AFP (p <0.001) and the sum of number and diameter of the tumour/s (p <0.05) were determinants of "HCC-related death" for PR/SD and PD patients. To maintain the post-LT 5-year incidence of "HCC-related death" <30%, the Metroticket 2.0 criteria were restricted in some cases of PR/SD and in all cases with PD, correctly reclassifying 9.4% of patients with "HCC-related death", at the expense of 3.5% of patients who did not have the event. The overall/net NRI was 5.8., Conclusion: Incorporating the modified RECIST criteria into the Metroticket 2.0 framework can improve its predictive ability. The additional information provided can be used to better judge the suitability of candidates for LT following neoadjuvant therapies., Lay Summary: In the context of liver transplantation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, prediction models are used to ensure that the risk of recurrence after transplantation is acceptably low. The Metroticket 2.0 model has been proposed as an accurate predictor of "tumour-related death" after liver transplantation. In the present study, we show that its accuracy can be improved by incorporating information relating to the radiological responses of patients to neoadjuvant therapies., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest that pertain to this work. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (Copyright © 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background and Aims: The heterogeneity of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the widespread use of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside recommended guidelines have encouraged the development of scoring systems that predict patient survival. The aim of this study was to build and validate statistical models that offer individualized patient survival prediction using response to TACE as a variable., Approach and Results: Clinically relevant baseline parameters were collected for 4,621 patients with HCC treated with TACE at 19 centers in 11 countries. In some of the centers, radiological responses (as assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST]) were also accrued. The data set was divided into a training set, an internal validation set, and two external validation sets. A pre-TACE model ("Pre-TACE-Predict") and a post-TACE model ("Post-TACE-Predict") that included response were built. The performance of the models in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared with existing ones. The median OS was 19.9 months. The factors influencing survival were tumor number and size, alpha-fetoprotein, albumin, bilirubin, vascular invasion, cause, and response as assessed by mRECIST. The proposed models showed superior predictive accuracy compared with existing models (the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score and its various modifications) and allowed for patient stratification into four distinct risk categories whose median OS ranged from 7 months to more than 4 years., Conclusions: A TACE-specific and extensively validated model based on routinely available clinical features and response after first TACE permitted patient-level prognostication., (© 2020 The Authors. Hepatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Sorafenib is the first multikinase inhibitor demonstrating a survival benefit for patients suffering from advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, 1 issue remains open: what is the factor able to predict which patients will be long survivors?In the present study, we harnessed the potential of conditional survival, aiming at estimating the probability that a patient receiving sorafenib survives for more than 3 years.The present multicentric study was conducted on a cohort of 438 HCC patients. The primary end point was conditional overall survival. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate conditional overall survival probabilities at 3 years.The 3-year conditional survival of patients without disease progression highlights that NLR and ECOG are the factors that most accurately predict the probability of long survival. The 3-year conditional survival of patients with disease progression showed a medium effect size for HCV status, alpha-fetoprotein and NLR at all time-points. Macro-vascular portal vein invasion, extra hepatic disease, and BCLC we have a large effect size at 6 months and a medium effect size at 12 and 24 months.Our findings support the use of baseline NLR for the identification of patients with a higher probability of long-survival. NLR should be used as a stratification factor in the forthcoming clinical trials on the drugs for the advanced HCC now in pipeline.

Background & Aims: The popular sense of the word "cure" implies that a patient treated for a specific disease will return to have the same life expectancy as if he/she had never had the disease. In analytic terms, it translates into the concept of statistical cure which occurs when a group of patients returns to having similar mortality to a reference population. The aim of this study was to assess the probability of being cured from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by hepatic resection., Methods: Data from 2,523 patients undergoing resection for HCC were used to fit statistical cure models, to compare disease-free survival (DFS) after surgery to the survival expected for patients with chronic hepatitis and/or cirrhosis and the general population, matched by sex, age, race/ethnicity and year of diagnosis., Results: The probability of resection enabling patients with HCC to achieve the same life expectancy as those with chronic hepatitis and/or cirrhosis was 26.3%. The conditional probability of achieving this result was time-dependent, requiring about 8.9 years to be accomplished with 95% certainty. Considering the general population as a reference, the cure fraction decreased to 17.1%. Uncured patients had a median DFS of 1.5 years. In multivariable analysis, patient's age and the risk of early HCC recurrence (within 2 years) were independent determinants of the chance of cure (p <0.001). The chances of being cured ranged between 36.0% for individuals at low risk of early recurrence to approximately 3.6% for those at high risk., Conclusion: Estimates of the chance of being cured of HCC by resection showed that cure is achievable, and its likelihood increases with the passing of recurrence-free time. The data presented herein can be used to inform decision making and to provide patients with accurate information., Lay Summary: Data from 2,523 patients who underwent resection for hepatocellular carcinoma were used to estimate the probability that resection would enable treated patients to achieve the same life expectancy as patients with chronic hepatitis and/or cirrhosis, and the general population. Herein, the cure model suggests that in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, resection can enable patients to achieve the same life expectancy as those with chronic liver disease in 26.3% of cases and as the general population in 17.1% of cases., (Copyright © 2019 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The 'Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC' (PROSASH) model addressed the heterogeneous survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib in clinical trials but requires validation in daily clinical practice. This study aimed to validate, compare and optimize this model for survival prediction., Methods: Patients treated with sorafenib for HCC at five tertiary European centres were retrospectively staged according to the PROSASH model. In addition, the optimized PROSASH-II model was developed using the data of four centres (training set) and tested in an independent dataset. These models for overall survival (OS) were then compared with existing prognostic models., Results: The PROSASH model was validated in 445 patients, showing clear differences between the four risk groups (OS 16.9-4.6 months). A total of 920 patients (n = 615 in training set, n = 305 in validation set) were available to develop PROSASH-II. This optimized model incorporated fewer and less subjective parameters: the serum albumin, bilirubin and alpha-foetoprotein, and macrovascular invasion, extrahepatic spread and largest tumour size on imaging. Both PROSASH and PROSASH-II showed improved discrimination (C-index 0.62 and 0.63, respectively) compared with existing prognostic scores (C-index ≤0.59)., Conclusions: In HCC patients treated with sorafenib, individualized prediction of survival and risk group stratification using baseline prognostic and predictive parameters with the PROSASH model was validated. The refined PROSASH-II model performed at least as good with fewer and more objective parameters. PROSASH-II can be used as a tool for tailored treatment of HCC in daily practice and to define pre-planned subgroups for future studies., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aim: To benchmark overall survival (OS) and time to radiological progression (TTP) of patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing sorafenib in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma using individual participant survival data, and to meta-analyze prognostic factors for OS and TTP. Methods: RCTs were identified through literature search until December 2018. Individual participant survival was reconstructed with an algorithm from published Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: Ten RCTs were included. Median OS was 10.0 months (95% CI: 9.6-10.5), and median TTP was 4.1 months (95% CI: 3.8-4.3). Multivariable analyses showed HCV positivity, absence of macrovascular invasion and extra-hepatic disease as predictors of longer OS. Conclusion: We provided a benchmark for future studies on sorafenib. The present results can be used in the decision making for the early shift to second-line strategy.

Background: Sorafenib is the current standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) and has been shown to improve survival by about 3 months compared to placebo. However, survival varies widely from under three months to over two years. The aim of this study was to build a statistical model that allows personalised survival prediction following sorafenib treatment., Methods: We had access to 1130 patients undergoing sorafenib treatment for aHCC as part of the control arm for two phase III randomised clinical trials (RCTs). A multivariable model was built that predicts survival based on baseline clinical features. The statistical approach permits both group-level risk stratification and individual-level survival prediction at any given time point. The model was calibrated, and its discrimination assessed through Harrell's c-index and Royston-Sauerbrei's R 2 D ., Results: The variables influencing overall survival were vascular invasion, age, ECOG score, AFP, albumin, creatinine, AST, extra-hepatic spread and aetiology. The model-predicted survival very similar to that observed. The Harrell's c-indices for training and validation sets were 0.72 and 0.70, respectively indicating good prediction., Conclusions: Our model ('PROSASH') predicts patient survival using baseline clinical features. However, it will require further validation in a routine clinical practice setting.

In this article, we compared the early and long-term outcomes of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with chemotherapy followed by resection with those of patients undergoing surgery first, focusing our analysis on resection margin status. Patients who underwent liver resection with curative intent for colorectal liver metastases from July 2001 to January 2018 were included in the analysis. Propensity score matching was used to reduce treatment allocation bias. The cohort comprised 164 patients; 117 (71.3%) underwent liver resection first, whereas the remaining 47 (28.7%) had preoperative chemotherapy. After a 1:1 ratio of propensity score matching, 47 patients per group were evaluated. A positive resection margin was found in 13 patients in the surgery-first group (25.5%) versus 4 (8.5%) in the preoperative chemotherapy group ( P = 0.029). Postmatched logistic regression analysis showed that only preoperative chemotherapy was significantly associated with the rate of positive resection margin (odds ratio 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.07-0.81; P = 0.022). Median follow-up was 41 months (interquartile range 8-69). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed that only positive resection margin was a significant negative prognostic factor (hazard ratio 2.2, 95% CI 1.18-4.11; P = 0.014). Within the preoperative chemotherapy group, median overall survival was 40 months in R0 patients and 10 months in R1 patients ( P = 0.016). Although preoperative chemotherapy in colorectal liver metastasis patients may affect the rate of positive resection margin, its impact on survival seems to be limited. In the present study, the most important prognostic factor was the resection margin status.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as an indication to liver transplant (LT) started as palliative treatment, then moved to potentially curative anti-cancer therapy and more recently entered the era of competition with non-cancer indications, consequent to the need of the society to target equal distribution of the limited resource of donated organs among different indications. Nowadays HCC is a leading indication to LT, currently representing up to 50% of the indications in most transplant Centers. The risk of post-transplant death and the causes of mortality significantly vary along the post-transplant follow-up. Overall, the main causes of death after LT are multiple organ failure and cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, pulmonary, and renal complications. However, after the first post-LT year, mortality for technical complications, infections and general complications significantly decrease, while recurrence of primary liver diseases (particularly malignancies) increase, turning to be the main causes of death. In studies with time-to-event or survival outcomes, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the primary event of interest. In the setting of LT for HCC, when the primary outcome of interest is death due to HCC recurrence, death due to causes different from this serves as a competing event because subjects who die from such different causes are no longer at risk of death due to HCC recurrence. The introduction of HCC-specific survival as a primary endpoint in studies assessing the outcomes of LT for HCC allows the identification of independent oncologic determinants of post-LT survival and their relative weight on patients' prognosis. In this view, a continuous model based on level of AFP, tumor size and tumor number that allows to determine the risk of death from HCC-related factors after liver transplantation ( www.hcc-olt-metroticket.org/ ) has been recently developed. Since the endpoint of HCC-specific survival is not influenced by the changes observed in short-term post-LT survival (thanks to advances in the clinical management) nor in long-term post-LT survival (thanks to the introduction of effective treatments achieving control of hepatitis B and C viruses), a model predicting HCC-specific survival will be an helpful prognostic tool in the context of the changing scenarios of LT for HCC.

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma deriving from metabolic dysfunctions has increased in the last years. Sirtuin- (SIRT-3), phospho-mammalian target of rapamycin (p-mTOR) and hypoxia-inducible factor- (HIF-1α) are involved in metabolism and cancer. However, their role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) metabolism, drug resistance and progression remains unclear. This study aimed to better clarify the biological and clinical function of these markers in HCC patients, in relation to the presence of metabolic alterations, metformin therapy and clinical outcome. A total of 70 HCC patients were enrolled: 48 and 22 of whom were in early stage and advanced stage, respectively. The expression levels of the three markers were assessed by immunohistochemistry and summarized using descriptive statistics. SIRT-3 expression was higher in diabetic than non-diabetic patients, and in metformin-treated than insulin-treated patients. Interestingly, p-mTOR was higher in patients with metabolic syndrome than those with different etiology, and, similar to SIRT-3, in metformin-treated than insulin-treated patients. Moreover, our results describe a slight, albeit not significant, benefit of high SIRT-3 and a significant benefit of high nuclear HIF-1α expression in early-stage patients, whereas high levels of p-mTOR correlated with worse prognosis in advanced-stage patients. Our study highlighted the involvement of SIRT-3 and p-mTOR in metabolic dysfunctions that occur in HCC patients, and suggested SIRT-3 and HIF-1α as predictors of prognosis in early-stage HCC patients, and p-mTOR as target for the treatment of advanced-stage HCC.

The objective of the study is to evaluate 10 years of down-staging strategy for liver transplantation (LT) with a median follow-up of 5 years. Data on long-term results are poor and less information is available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) non-responder patients or those ineligible for down-staging. The outcome of 308 HCC candidates and the long-term results of 231 LTs for HCC performed between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. HCCs were divided according to tumor stage and response to therapy: 145 patients were T2 (metering Milan Criteria, MC), 43 were T3 successfully down-staged to T2 (Down-Achieved), 20 were T3 not fully down-staged to T2 (Down-not Achieved), and 23 patients were T3 not receiving down-staging treatments (No-Down). The average treatment effect (ATE) of LT for T3 tumors was estimated using the outcome of 535 T3 patients undergoing non-LT therapies, using inverse probability weighting regression adjustment. The 24-month drop-out rate during waiting time was significantly higher in the down-staging groups: 27.6% vs. 9.2%, p < 0.005. After LT, the tumor recurrence rate was significantly different: MC 7.6%, Down-Achieved 20.9%, Down-not Achieved 31.6%, and No-Down 30.4% (p < 0.001). The survival rates at 5 years were: 63% in Down-Achieved, 62% in Down-not Achieved, 63% in No-Down, and 77% in MC (p = n.s.). The only variable related to a better outcome was the effective down-staging to T2 at the histological evaluation of the explanted liver: recurrence rate = 7.8% vs. 26% (p < 0.001) and 5-year patient survival = 76% vs. 67% (p < 0.05). The ATE estimation showed that the mean survival of T3-LT candidates was significantly better than that of T3 patients ineligible for LT [83.3 vs 39.2 months (+44.6 months); p < 0.001]. Long term outcome of T3 down-staged candidates was poorer than that of MC candidates, particularly for cases not achieving down-staging. However, their survival outcome was significantly better than that achieved with non-transplant therapies.

Background & Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent complication of liver disease. When feasible, hepatic resection is the first-choice therapy. However, tumor recurrence complicates at least 2/3 hepatic resections at 5 years. Early recurrences are mainly tumor or treatment-related, but predictors of late recurrences are undefined. We aimed to evaluate the factors related to HCC recurrence after curative resection, with liver and spleen stiffness measurement (LSM and SSM) as markers of severity and duration of the underlying liver disease., Methods: We enrolled patients with chronic liver disease and primary HCC suitable for hepatic resection. We followed up patients for at least 30 months or until HCC recurrence. We performed uni- and multivariate analyses to evaluate the predictive role of tumor characteristics, laboratory data, LSM and SSM for both early and late recurrence of HCC., Results: We prospectively enrolled 175 patients. Early HCC recurrence at multivariate analysis was associated with viral etiology, HCC grading (3 or 4), resection margins <1 cm and being beyond the Milan criteria. HCC late recurrence at univariate analysis was associated with esophageal varices (hazard ratio [HR] 3.321, 95% CI 1.564-7.053), spleen length (HR 3.123, 95% CI 1.377-7.081), platelet/spleen length ratio if <909 (HR 2.170, 95% CI 1.026-4.587), LSM (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.005-1.067), SSM (HR 1.046, 95% CI 1.020-1.073). HCC late recurrence at multivariate analysis was independently associated only with SSM (HR 1.046, CI 1.020-1.073). Late HCC recurrence-free survival was significantly different according to the SSM cut-off of 70 kPa (p = 0.0002)., Conclusions: SSM seems to be the only predictor of late HCC recurrence, since it is directly correlated with the degree of liver disease and portal hypertension, both of which are involved in carcinogenesis., Lay Summary: The main result of this study is that spleen stiffness measurement, evaluated by transient elastography, seems to be the only predictor of the late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma, defined as recurrence after 24 months from liver resection. Indeed, spleen stiffness measurement is directly correlated with the degree of liver disease and portal hypertension, which are both involved in carcinogenesis., (Copyright © 2018 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Whether to submit to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or hepatic resection (HR) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still a debated issue. We conducted a systematic review to critically analyze what evidence supports the use of TACE, in a specific clinical condition that can define HCC as 'intermediate'. In addition, we analyzed literature regarding the comparison between TACE and HR. Direct comparisons, between HR and TACE, strongly support the adoption of surgery for patients with large or multinodular HCCs since, albeit 'nonideal' surgical candidates, these patients can still obtain a survival benefit. Multidisciplinary teams can mitigate the different decision-making approach of surgeons and hepatologists with the aim of obtaining the best quality of care.

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) represents a potentially curative option for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims at evaluating the histologic response after RFA of small HCCs arising in cirrhosis. Data were reviewed from 78 patients with de novo HCCs who were treated with RFA and subsequently transplanted. The last radiological assessment before liver transplantation (LT) was used for comparison between modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) and histological findings. A total of 125 de novo HCCs (median diameter, 20 mm) were treated with RFA only in 92 sessions. There were 98 nodules that did not show local recurrence during follow-up (78.4%), and the remaining were retreated, except 1 because of subsequent LT. On explanted livers, complete pathological response (CPR) was observed in 61.6%, being 76.9% when <2 cm, 55.0% when 2-3 cm, and 30.8% when >3 cm. Tumors near hepatic vessels had CPR in 50% of patients versus 69.3% for tumors distant from vessels (P = 0.039). Of the 125 HCCs, 114 had available radiological assessment within a median of 3 months before LT. Complete radiological response, according to mRECIST, was observed in 77.2% of nodules before LT. The Cohen κ was 0.48 (moderate agreement). The overall accuracy was 78.1%. A total of 18 complications were recorded with only 1 graded as major. In conclusion, RFA can provide high CPR for HCC, especially in smaller tumors distant from hepatic veins or portal branches. The agreement between mRECIST and histology is only moderate. Further refinements in radiological assessment are essential to accurately assess the true effectiveness of RFA., (Copyright © 2018 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background: The role of liver transplant (LT) for neuroendocrine liver metastasis (NELM) has not been completely defined. While international guidelines included LT as a potential treatment for highly selected patients with advanced NELM, recently, LT has been proposed as an alternative curative treatment for NELM for patients meeting restrictive criteria (Milan criteria)., Methods: Using a multi-institutional cohort of patients undergoing liver resection for NELM, the long-term outcomes of patients meeting Milan criteria (resected NET drained by the portal system, stable disease/response to therapies for at least 6 months, metastatic diffusion to < 50% of the total liver volume, a confirmed histology of low-grade, and ≤ 60 years) were investigated., Results: Among the 238 patients included in the study, 28 (12%) patients met the Milan criteria for LT with a 5-year OS of 83%. Furthermore, among patients meeting Milan criteria, subsets of patients with favorable clinic-pathological characteristics had 5-year OS rates greater than 90% including G1 patients (5-year OS, 92%), patients undergoing minor liver resection (5-year OS, 94%), patients with low number of NELM (1-2 NELM), and small tumor size (< 3 cm) (for both groups of patients, 5-year OS, 100%)., Conclusions: In our series, only 12% of patients met Milan criteria, and the 5-year OS after liver resection for this small selected group of patients was comparable with that reported in the literature for patients undergoing LT for NELM within Milan criteria. While LT might be the optimal treatment for patients with unresectable NELM, surgical resection should be the first option for patients with resectable NELM.

Background & Aims: Resection is the most widely used potentially curative treatment for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, recurrence within 2 years occurs in 30-50% of patients, being the major cause of mortality. Herein, we describe 2 models, both based on widely available clinical data, which permit risk of early recurrence to be assessed before and after resection., Methods: A total of 3,903 patients undergoing surgical resection with curative intent were recruited from 6 different centres. We built 2 models for early recurrence, 1 using preoperative and 1 using pre and post-operative data, which were internally validated in the Hong Kong cohort. The models were then externally validated in European, Chinese and US cohorts. We developed 2 online calculators to permit easy clinical application., Results: Multivariable analysis identified male gender, large tumour size, multinodular tumour, high albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and high serum alpha-fetoprotein as the key parameters related to early recurrence. Using these variables, a preoperative model (ERASL-pre) gave 3 risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS) in the entire cohort - low risk: 2-year RFS 64.8%, intermediate risk: 2-year RFS 42.5% and high risk: 2-year RFS 20.7%. Median survival in each stratum was similar between centres and the discrimination between the 3 strata was enhanced in the post-operative model (ERASL-post) which included 'microvascular invasion'., Conclusions: Statistical models that can predict the risk of early HCC recurrence after resection have been developed, extensively validated and shown to be applicable in the international setting. Such models will be valuable in guiding surveillance follow-up and in the design of post-resection adjuvant therapy trials., Lay Summary: The most effective treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma is surgical removal of the tumour but there is often recurrence. In this large international study, we develop a statistical method that allows clinicians to estimate the risk of recurrence in an individual patient. This facility enhances communication with the patient about the likely success of the treatment and will help in designing clinical trials that aim to find drugs that decrease the risk of recurrence., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate probabilities of achieving the statistical cure from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with hepatic resection (HR) and liver transplantation (LT)., Background: Statistical cure occurs when the mortality of a specific population returns to values of that of general population. Resection and transplantation are considered potentially curative therapies for HCC, but their effect on the residual entire life-expectancy has never been investigated., Methods: Data from 3286 HCC patients treated with LT (n = 1218) or HR (n = 2068) were used to estimate statistical cure. Disease-free survival (DFS) was the primary survival measure to estimate cure fractions through a nonmixture model. Overall survival (OS) was a secondary measure. In both, patients were matched with general population by age, sex, year, and race/ethnicity. Cure variations after LT were also adjusted for different waiting-list drop-outs., Results: Considering DFS, the cure fraction after LT was 74.1% and after HR was 24.1% (effect size >0.8). LT outperformed HR within all transplant criteria considered (effect size >0.8), especially for multiple tumors (>0.9) and even in presence of a drop-out up to 20% (>0.5). Considering OS, the cure fraction after LT marginally increased to 75.8%, and after that HR increased to 40.5%. The effect size of LT over HR in terms of cure decreased for oligonodular tumors (<0.5), became small for drop-out up to ∼20% (<0.2), and negligible for single tumors <5 cm (∼0.1)., Conclusion: As other malignancies, statistical cure can occur for HCC, primarily with LT and secondarily with HR, depending on waiting-list capabilities and efficacy of tumor recurrence therapies after resection.

Sorafenib has been considered the standard of care for patients with advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since 2007 and numerous studies have investigated the role of markers involved in the angiogenesis process at both the expression and genetic level and clinical aspect. What results have ten years of research produced? Several clinical and biological markers are associated with prognosis. The most interesting clinical parameters are adverse events, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, and macroscopic vascular invasion, while several single nucleotide polymorphisms and plasma angiopoietin-2 levels represent the most promising biological biomarkers. A recent pooled analysis of two phase III randomized trials showed that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, etiology and extra-hepatic spread are predictive factors of response to sorafenib, but did not identify any predictive biological markers. After 10 years of research into sorafenib there are still no validated prognostic or predictive factors of response to the drug in HCC. The aim of the present review was to summarize 10 years of research into sorafenib, looking in particular at the potential of associated clinical and biological markers to predict its efficacy in patients with advanced HCC., Competing Interests: Conflict-of-interest statement: There is no conflict of interest associated with any of the senior author or other coauthors contributed their efforts in this manuscript.

Background: The achievement of high rates of sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients will reduce decompensating terminal events., Aims: To investigate whether hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence could change due to the DAA-induced increase in life-expectancy., Methods: A Markov model was built on clinical data of 494 cirrhotic patients and available literature to estimate probabilities of "death before HCC" and of "HCC occurrence" without and with DAA., Results: In comparison to untreated patients, DAA therapy reduced the 20-year mortality before HCC by 21.9% in patients without varices and by 21.5% in those with varices, considering an SVR of 95% and no direct effect on hepatocarcinogenesis. Tumour occurrence increased by 5%-8.2% and the proportion of HCCs diagnosed in compensated stages increased to >98%. If we consider DAA as having "anti-tumoral" effects, the benefit becomes greater, achieving a 20-year survival of 81.5% in patients without varices, and 52.2% in patients with varices. Instead, if we consider DAA as having a "pro-tumoral" effect, then, the increased incidence of HCC nullifies the survival benefits., Conclusion: DAAs drastically reduce the mortality caused by the liver function worsening, increasing the proportion of HCCs diagnosed in compensated stages. Knowledge of the DAA effect on hepatocarcinogenesis remains pivotal., (Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The performance of parenchymal-sparing hepatectomy (PSH) versus major hepatectomy (MH) in patients with multiple colorectal liver metastases (CLM) is a matter that is yet debated. We investigated the outcome of patients with multiple CLM undergoing PSH instead of MH., Methods: Databases at 2 institutions were reviewed. A propensity score-matched analysis was applied. Among 554 patients, 110 undergoing PSH and 110 undergoing MH were matched. They were similar in baseline characteristics, comorbidity, and tumor features. Primary outcomes were short- and long-term outcomes., Results: Morbidity was significantly higher in the MH group, while mortality was not significantly different. There were no differences in free-margins width, but a trend of increased survival was seen in the PSH group with a median advantage of 6 months over the MH group. Among the prognostic factors, the T status (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6; p = 0.001), the N status (HR 2.9; p = 0.001), the timing of CLM diagnosis (HR 2.1; p = 0.002), the tumor number (HR 2.0; p = 0.001), the tumor size (HR 2.2; p = 0.015), and the neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 1.7; p = 0.023) were found to be statistically and independently significant for survival., Conclusions: PSH conveys advantage over MH in terms of decreased postoperative morbidity, and a trend of survival benefit. PSH should be considered a suitable alternative to MH whenever it is technically feasible., (© 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Background & Aims: Outcomes of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are determined by cancer-related and non-related events. Treatments for hepatitis C virus infection have reduced non-cancer events among patients receiving liver transplants, so reducing HCC-related death might be an actionable end point. We performed a competing-risk analysis to evaluate factors associated with survival of patients with HCC and developed a prognostic model based on features of HCC patients before liver transplantation., Methods: We performed multivariable competing-risk regression analysis to identify factors associated with HCC-specific death of patients who underwent liver transplantation. The training set comprised 1018 patients who underwent liver transplantation for HCC from January 2000 through December 2013 at 3 tertiary centers in Italy. The validation set comprised 341 consecutive patients who underwent liver transplantation for HCC during the same period at the Liver Cancer Institute in Shanghai, China. We collected pretransplantation data on etiology of liver disease, number and size of tumors, patient level of α-fetoprotein (AFP), model for end-stage liver disease score, tumor stage, numbers and types of treatment, response to treatments, tumor grade, microvascular invasion, dates, and causes of death. Death was defined as HCC-specific when related to HCC recurrence after transplantation, disseminated extra- and/or intrahepatic tumor relapse and worsened liver function in presence of tumor spread. The cumulative incidence of death was segregated for hepatitis C virus status., Results: In the competing-risk regression, the sum of tumor number and size and of log 10 level of AFP were significantly associated with HCC-specific death (P < .001), returning an average c-statistic of 0.780 (95% confidence interval, 0.763-0.798). Five-year cumulative incidence of non-HCC-related death was 8.6% in HCV-negative patients and 18.1% in HCV-positive patients. For patients with HCC to have a 70% chance of HCC-specific survival 5 years after transplantation, their level of AFP should be <200 ng/mL and the sum of number and size of tumors (in centimeters) should not exceed 7; if the level of AFP was 200-400 ng/mL, the sum of the number and size of tumors should be ≤5; if their level of AFP was 400-1000 ng/mL, the sum of the number and size of tumors should be ≤4. In the validation set, the model identified patients who survived 5 years after liver transplantation with 0.721 accuracy (95% confidence interval, 0.648%-0.793%). Our model, based on patients' level of AFP and HCC number and size, outperformed the Milan; University of California, San Francisco; Shanghai-Fudan; Up-to-7 criteria (P < .001); and AFP French model (P = .044) to predict which patients will survive for 5 years after liver transplantation., Conclusions: We developed a model based on level of AFP, tumor size, and tumor number, to determine risk of death from HCC-related factors after liver transplantation. This model might be used to select end points and refine selection criteria for liver transplantation for patients with HCC. To predict 5-year survival and risk of HCC-related death using an online calculator, please see www.hcc-olt-metroticket.org/. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02898415., (Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The role of liver resection for metastatic breast carcinoma is still debated., Methods: Fifty-one resected patients were reviewed. All patients received adjuvant chemotherapy after resection of the primary tumor. Clinicopathological characteristics and immunohistochemistry expression of estrogen (ER), progesterone (PR), human epidermal growth factor (HER2), or Ki67 were evaluated., Results: The median number of metastases was 2; single metastases were present in 24 (47%) patients. The median tumor diameter was 4 cm. Major hepatectomies were performed in 31 (61%) patients. Postoperative mortality was null. Postoperative morbidity was 13.7%. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates were 92, 36, and 16% respectively. Eleven (21.6%) patients survived longer than 5 years and 8.9% are alive without recurrence 10 years after surgery. At the univariate analysis, tumor diameter, lymph node status, PR receptor status, and triple positive receptors (ER+/PR+/Her2+) were significantly related to survival. At the multivariate analysis, tumor diameter, PR receptor, and triple negative status were significantly related to the long-term outcome., Conclusion: Liver resection seems to be a safe and effective treatment for metastases from breast cancer, and encouraging long-term survival can be obtained with acceptable risk in selected patients. Tumors less than 5 cm and positive hormone receptor status are the best prognostic factors., (© 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Purpose  Liver stiffness (LS) has been shown to be of use in chronic liver disease patients but its utility in surgical judgment still needs to be proven. A decision-making approach was applied to evaluate whether LS measurement before surgery of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be useful in avoiding post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). Materials and Methods  Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to 202 HCC patients (2008 - 14) with LS measurement prior to hepatectomy to verify whether the occurrence of PHLF grades B/C should be reduced through a decision-making approach with LS.  Results  Within 90 days of surgery, 4 patients died (2 %) and grades B/C PHLF occurred in 29.7 % of cases. Ascites and/or pleural effusion, treatable with medical therapy, were the most frequent complications. DCA showed that using the "expected utility theory" LS measurement can reduce up to 39 % of cases of PHLF without the exclusion of any patient from surgery that duly undergoes an uncomplicated postoperative course. LS measurement does not add any information to normal clinical judgment for patients with a low (< 10 %) risk of PHLF. Conclusion  LS measurement can determine a reduction of PHLF under "expected utility theory" fulfilment. However, the degree of PHLF can be minor and "risk seeking" individuals can accept such a risk on the basis of surgical benefits., Competing Interests: Financial support: This work was supported in part by the fund “Ricerca Fondamentale Orientata (ex 60 %)” of the University of Bologna, Italy., (© Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.)

The management of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma untreatable with surgical options is based on systemic therapy with sorafenib. Due to the high rates of adverse events connected to the therapy with sorafenib, metronomic capecitabine seems a promising strategy for these patients. We analyzed the data of 38 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma recurrent after liver transplantation performed at our center. We compared the outcome of 17 patients receiving metronomic capecitabine versus 20 patients experiencing best supportive care and versus the data of the literature about treatment with sorafenib. In the group treated with metronomic capecitabine we observed an increased survival after tumor recurrence at the univariate and multivariate analysis compared to the group of best supportive care (median 22 months vs. 7 months, p < 0.01). Data from the literature on the use of sorafenib showed outcomes like our study group, with similar patient and tumoral features. The episodes of acute rejection and the tumor stage at the recurrence showed a correlation with patient survival at the univariate analysis. The metronomic capecitabine for hepatocellular cancer recurrent after liver transplantation seems effective without important adverse events and comparable results to sorafenib.