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The acidification of the ocean (OA) increases the frequency and intensity of ocean acidity extreme events (OAXs), but this increase is not occurring homogeneously in time and space. Here we use daily output from a hindcast simulation with a high-resolution regional ocean model coupled to a biogeochemical ecosystem model (ROMS-BEC) to investigate this heterogeneity in the progression of OAX in the upper 250 m of the northeastern Pacific from 1984 to 2019. OAXs are defined using a relative threshold approach and using a fixed baseline. Concretely, conditions are considered extreme when the hydrogen ion concentration ([H+]) exceeds the 99th percentile of its distribution in the baseline simulation where atmospheric CO2 was held at its 1979 level. Within the 36 years of our hindcast simulation, the increase in atmospheric CO2 causes a strong increase in OAX volume, duration, and intensity throughout the upper 250 m. The increases are most accentuated near the surface, with 88 % of the surface area experiencing near-permanent extreme conditions in 2019. At the same time, a larger fraction of the OAXs become undersaturated with respect to aragonite (ΩA < 1), with some regions experiencing increases up to nearly 50 % in their subsurface. There is substantial regional heterogeneity in the progression of OAX, with the fraction of OAX volume across the top 250 m increasing in the central northeastern Pacific up to 160 times, while the deeper layers of the nearshore regions experience “only” a 4-fold increase. Throughout the upper 50 m of the northeastern Pacific, OAXs increase relatively linearly with time, but sudden rapid increases in yearly extreme days are simulated to occur in the thermocline of the far offshore regions of the central northeastern Pacific. These differences largely emerge from the spatial heterogeneity in the local [H+] variability. The limited offshore reach of offshore-propagating mesoscale eddies, which are an important driver of subsurface OAX in the northeastern Pacific, causes a sharp transition in the increase in OAX between the rather variable thermocline waters of nearshore regions and the very invariant waters of the central northeastern Pacific. The spatially and temporal heterogeneous increases in OAX, including the abrupt appearance of near-permanent extremes, likely have negative effects on the ability of marine organisms to adapt to the progression of OA and its associated extremes.

The Canary upwelling system (CanUS) is a productive coastal region characterized by strong seasonality and an intense offshore transport of organic carbon (Corg) to the adjacent oligotrophic offshore waters. There, the respiration of this Corg substantially modifies net community production (NCP). While this transport and the resulting coupling of the biogeochemistry between the coastal and open ocean has been well studied in the annual mean, the temporal variability, and especially its seasonality, has not yet been investigated. Here, we determine the seasonal variability of the offshore transport of Corg, its mesoscale component, latitudinal differences, and the underlying physical and biological drivers. To this end, we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model. Our results reveal the importance of the mesoscale fluxes and of the upwelling processes (coastal upwelling and Ekman pumping) in modulating the seasonal variation of the offshore Corg transport. We find that the region surrounding Cape Blanc (21∘ N) hosts the most intense Corg offshore flux in every season, linked to the persistent, and far reaching Cape Blanc filament and its interaction with the Cape Verde Front. Coastal upwelling filaments dominate the seasonality of the total offshore flux up to 100 km from the coast, contributing in every season at least 80 % to the total flux. The seasonality of the upwelling modulates the offshore Corg seasonality hundreds of kilometers from the CanUS coast via lateral redistribution of nearshore production. North of 24.5∘ N, the sharp summer–fall peak of coastal upwelling results in an export of more than 30 % of the coastal Corg at 100 km offshore due to a combination of intensified nearshore production and offshore fluxes. To the south, the less pronounced upwelling seasonality regulates an overall larger but farther-reaching and less seasonally varying lateral flux, which exports between 60 % and 90 % of the coastal production more than 100 km offshore. Overall, we show that the temporal variability of nearshore processes modulates the variability of Corg and NCP hundreds of kilometers offshore from the CanUS coast via the offshore transport of the nearshore production.

The Canary Current System (CanCS) is a major eastern boundary upwelling system (EBUS), known for its high nearshore productivity and for sustaining a large fishery. It is also an important but not well quantified source of nitrogen to the adjacent oligotrophic subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic. Here, we use a Lagrangian modeling approach to quantify this offshore transport and investigate its timescales, reach and contribution to the fueling of productivity in the offshore regions. In our Lagrangian model, we release nearly 10 million particles off the northwestern African coast and then track all those that enter the nearshore region and upwell along the coast between 14 and 35∘ N. We then follow them as they are transported offshore, also tracking the biogeochemical transformations, permitting us to construct biogeochemical budgets along the offshore moving particles. The three-dimensional velocity field as well as the biogeochemical tracers and fluxes are taken from an eddy-resolving configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Our Lagrangian model analysis reveals a very intense offshore transport of nitrogen, with about 20 %–40 % in the form of organic nitrogen. The transport varies greatly along the coast. Even though the central CanCS (21–28∘ N) transports the largest amount of water offshore, its offshore transport of nitrogen is somewhat smaller than that in the southern CanCS (14–21∘ N), primarily because of the higher nitrogen content of the upwelling waters there. Around one-third of the total offshore transport of water occurs around major capes along the CanCS. The persistent filaments associated with these capes are responsible for an up to 4-fold enhancement of the offshore transport of water and nitrogen in the first 400 km. Much of this water and nitrogen stems from upwelling at quite some distance from the capes, confirming the capes' role in collecting water from along the coast. North of Cape Blanc and within the first 500 km from the coast, water recirculation is a dominant feature of offshore transport. This process, likely associated with mesoscale eddies, tends to reduce the efficiency of offshore transport. The Canary upwelling is modeled to supply around 44 and 7 mmol N m−2 yr−1 to the North Atlantic Tropical Gyral (NATR) and the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyral East (NASE) Longhurst provinces, respectively. In the NATR, this represents nearly half (53 ± 26 %) of the estimated total new production, while in the NASE, this fraction is small (4 ± 2 %). Our results highlight the importance of the CanCS upwelling as a key source of nitrogen to the open North Atlantic and stress the need for improving the representation of EBUS in global coarse-resolution models.

The air–sea CO2 fluxes in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) vary strongly in time and space, with some of the highest flux densities globally. The processes controlling this variability have not yet been investigated consistently across all four major EBUSs, i.e., the California (CalCS), Humboldt (HumCS), Canary (CanCS), and Benguela (BenCS) Current systems. In this study, we diagnose the climatic modes of the air–sea CO2 flux variability in these regions between 1920 and 2015, using simulation results from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS), a global coupled climate model ensemble that is forced by historical and RCP8.5 radiative forcing. Differences between simulations can be attributed entirely to internal (unforced) climate variability, whose contribution can be diagnosed by subtracting the ensemble mean from each simulation. We find that in the CalCS and CanCS, the resulting anomalous CO2 fluxes are strongly affected by large-scale extratropical modes of variability, i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. The CalCS has anomalous uptake of CO2 during the positive phase of the NPGO, while the CanCS has anomalous outgassing of CO2 during the positive phase of the NAO. In contrast, the HumCS is mainly affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with anomalous uptake of CO2 during an El Niño event. Variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) are the major contributors to these anomalous CO2 fluxes and are generally driven by changes to large-scale gyre circulation, upwelling, the mixed layer depth, and biological processes. A better understanding of the sensitivity of EBUS CO2 fluxes to modes of climate variability is key in improving our ability to predict the future evolution of the atmospheric CO2 source and sink characteristics of the four EBUSs.

The biogeography of Southern Ocean phytoplankton controls the local biogeochemistry and the export of macronutrients to lower latitudes and depth. Of particular relevance is the competitive interaction between coccolithophores and diatoms, with the former being prevalent along the Great Calcite Belt (40–60° S), while diatoms tend to dominate the regions south of 60° S. To address the factors controlling coccolithophore distribution and the competition between them and diatoms, we use a regional high-resolution model (ROMS–BEC) for the Southern Ocean (24–78° S) that has been extended to include an explicit representation of coccolithophores. We assess the relative importance of bottom-up (temperature, nutrients, light) and top-down (grazing by zooplankton) factors in controlling Southern Ocean coccolithophore biogeography over the course of the growing season. In our simulations, coccolithophores are an important member of the Southern Ocean phytoplankton community, contributing 17 % to annually integrated net primary productivity south of 30° S. Coccolithophore biomass is highest north of 50° S in late austral summer, when light levels are high and diatoms become limited by silicic acid. Furthermore, we find top-down factors to be a major control on the relative abundance of diatoms and coccolithophores in the Southern Ocean. Consequently, when assessing potential future changes in Southern Ocean coccolithophore abundance, both abiotic (temperature, light, and nutrients) and biotic factors (interaction with diatoms and zooplankton) need to be considered.

Several studies in upwelling regions have suggested that mesoscale structures, such as eddies and filaments, contribute substantially to the long-range transport of the organic carbon from the nearshore region of production to the offshore region of remineralization. Yet a comprehensive analysis of this mesoscale flux and of its impact across the Canary Upwelling System (CanUS) has not been provided. Here, we fill this gap using simulations with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model. We run climatological simulations on an Atlantic telescopic grid with an eddy-resolving resolution in the CanUS. Using both a Reynolds flux decomposition and structure-identification algorithms, we quantify and characterize the organic carbon fluxes driven by filaments and eddies within the upper 100 m and put them in relationship to the total offshore transport. Our analysis reveals that both coastal filaments and eddies enhance the offshore flux of organic carbon, but that their contribution is very different. Upwelling filaments, with their high speeds and high concentrations, transport the organic carbon offshore in a very intense, but coastally confined manner, contributing nearly 80 % to the total flux of organic carbon at 100 km offshore. The filament contribution tapers off quickly to near zero values at 1000 km off the coast, leading to a strong offshore flux divergence that is the main lateral source of organic carbon in the coastal waters up to 1000 km offshore. Some of this divergence is also due to the filaments inducing a substantial vertical subduction of the organic carbon below 100 m. Owing to the temporal persistence and spatial recurrence of filaments, the filament transport largely constitutes a time-mean flux, while the time-varying component, i.e., the turbulent flux, is comparatively small. At distances beyond 500 km from the coast, eddies dominate the mesoscale offshore transport. Although their contribution represents only 20 % of the total offshore flux and its divergence, eddies, especially cyclones, transport organic carbon offshore to distances as great as 2000 km from the coast. The eddy transport largely represents a turbulent flux, but striations in this transport highlight the existence of typical formation spots and recurrent offshore propagation pathways. While they propagate slowly, eddies are an important organic carbon reservoir for the open waters, as they contain, on average, a third of the organic carbon in this region, two thirds of which is found in cyclones. Our analysis confirms the importance of mesoscale processes for the offshore organic carbon transport and the fueling of the heterotrophic activity in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic, and highlights the need to consider the mesoscale flux in order to fully resolve the three-dimensionality of the marine organic carbon cycle.

Although mesoscale ocean eddies are ubiquitous in the Southern Ocean, their average regional and seasonal association with phytoplankton has not been quantified systematically yet. To this end, we identify over 100 000 mesoscale eddies with diameters of 50 km and more in the Southern Ocean and determine the associated phytoplankton biomass anomalies using satellite-based chlorophyll-a (Chl) as a proxy. The mean Chl anomalies, δChl, associated with these eddies, comprising the upper echelon of the oceanic mesoscale, exceed ±10 % over wide regions. The structure of these anomalies is largely zonal, with cyclonic, thermocline lifted, eddies having positive anomalies in the subtropical waters north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and negative anomalies along its main flow path. The pattern is similar, but reversed for anticyclonic, thermocline deepened eddies. The seasonality of δChl is weak in subtropical waters, but pronounced along the ACC, featuring a seasonal sign switch. The spatial structure and seasonality of the mesoscale δChl can be explained largely by lateral advection, especially local eddy-stirring. A prominent exception is the ACC region in winter, where δChl is consistent with a modulation of phytoplankton light exposure caused by an eddy-induced modification of the mixed layer depth. The clear impact of mesoscale eddies on phytoplankton may implicate a downstream effect on Southern Ocean biogeochemical properties, such as mode water nutrient contents.

In spite of the recent strong increase in the number of measurements of the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface ocean (pCO2), the air–sea CO2 balance of the continental shelf seas remains poorly quantified. This is a consequence of these regions remaining strongly under-sampled in both time and space and of surface pCO2 exhibiting much higher temporal and spatial variability in these regions compared to the open ocean. Here, we use a modified version of a two-step artificial neural network method (SOM-FFN; Landschützer et al., 2013) to interpolate the pCO2 data along the continental margins with a spatial resolution of 0.25° and with monthly resolution from 1998 to 2015. The most important modifications compared to the original SOM-FFN method are (i) the much higher spatial resolution and (ii) the inclusion of sea ice and wind speed as predictors of pCO2. The SOM-FFN is first trained with pCO2 measurements extracted from the SOCATv4 database. Then, the validity of our interpolation, in both space and time, is assessed by comparing the generated pCO2 field with independent data extracted from the LDVEO2015 database. The new coastal pCO2 product confirms a previously suggested general meridional trend of the annual mean pCO2 in all the continental shelves with high values in the tropics and dropping to values beneath those of the atmosphere at higher latitudes. The monthly resolution of our data product permits us to reveal significant differences in the seasonality of pCO2 across the ocean basins. The shelves of the western and northern Pacific, as well as the shelves in the temperate northern Atlantic, display particularly pronounced seasonal variations in pCO2, while the shelves in the southeastern Atlantic and in the southern Pacific reveal a much smaller seasonality. The calculation of temperature normalized pCO2 for several latitudes in different oceanic basins confirms that the seasonality in shelf pCO2 cannot solely be explained by temperature-induced changes in solubility but are also the result of seasonal changes in circulation, mixing and biological productivity. Our results also reveal that the amplitudes of both thermal and nonthermal seasonal variations in pCO2 are significantly larger at high latitudes. Finally, because this product's spatial extent includes parts of the open ocean as well, it can be readily merged with existing global open-ocean products to produce a true global perspective of the spatial and temporal variability of surface ocean pCO2.

Understanding the global carbon (C) cycle is of crucial importance to map current and future climate dynamics relative to global environmental change. A full characterization of C cycling requires detailed information on spatiotemporal patterns of surface–atmosphere fluxes. However, relevant C cycle observations are highly variable in their coverage and reporting standards. Especially problematic is the lack of integration of the carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange of the ocean, inland freshwaters and the land surface with the atmosphere. Here we adopt a data-driven approach to synthesize a wide range of observation-based spatially explicit surface–atmosphere CO2 fluxes from 2001 to 2010, to identify the state of today's observational opportunities and data limitations. The considered fluxes include net exchange of open oceans, continental shelves, estuaries, rivers, and lakes, as well as CO2 fluxes related to net ecosystem productivity, fire emissions, loss of tropical aboveground C, harvested wood and crops, as well as fossil fuel and cement emissions. Spatially explicit CO2 fluxes are obtained through geostatistical and/or remote-sensing-based upscaling, thereby minimizing biophysical or biogeochemical assumptions encoded in process-based models. We estimate a bottom-up net C exchange (NCE) between the surface (land, ocean, and coastal areas) and the atmosphere. Though we provide also global estimates, the primary goal of this study is to identify key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that need to be prioritized in the expansion of in situ observatories. Uncertainties for NCE and its components are derived using resampling. In many regions, our NCE estimates agree well with independent estimates from other sources such as process-based models and atmospheric inversions. This holds for Europe (mean ± 1 SD: 0.8 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, positive numbers are sources to the atmosphere), Russia (0.1 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1), East Asia (1.6 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1), South Asia (0.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1), Australia (0.2 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1), and most of the Ocean regions. Our NCE estimates give a likely too large CO2 sink in tropical areas such as the Amazon, Congo, and Indonesia. Overall, and because of the overestimated CO2 uptake in tropical lands, our global bottom-up NCE amounts to a net sink of −5.4 ± 2.0 PgC yr−1. By contrast, the accurately measured mean atmospheric growth rate of CO2 over 2001–2010 indicates that the true value of NCE is a net CO2 source of 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1. This mismatch of nearly 10 PgC yr−1 highlights observational gaps and limitations of data-driven models in tropical lands, but also in North America. Our uncertainty assessment provides the basis for setting priority regions where to increase carbon observations in the future. High on the priority list are tropical land regions, which suffer from a lack of in situ observations. Second, extensive pCO2 data are missing in the Southern Ocean. Third, we lack observations that could enable seasonal estimates of shelf, estuary, and inland water–atmosphere C exchange. Our consistent derivation of data uncertainties could serve as prior knowledge in multicriteria optimization such as the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) and atmospheric inversions, without over- or under-stating bottom-up data credibility. In the future, NCE estimates of carbon sinks could be aggregated at national scale to compare with the official national inventories of CO2 fluxes in the land use, land use change, and forestry sector, upon which future emission reductions are proposed.

A compilation of measurements of net community production (NCP) in the upper waters of the eastern subtropical North Atlantic had suggested net heterotrophic conditions, purportedly supported by the lateral export of organic carbon from the adjacent, highly productive Canary Upwelling System (CanUS). Here, we quantify and assess this lateral export using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model. We employ a new Atlantic telescopic grid with a strong refinement towards the northwestern African shelf to combine an eddy-resolving resolution in the CanUS with a full Atlantic basin perspective. Our climatologically forced simulation reveals an intense offshore flux of organic carbon that transports about 19 Tg C yr−1 away from the nearshore 100 km over the whole CanUS, amounting to more than a third of the NCP in this region. The offshore transport extends beyond 1500 km into the subtropical North Atlantic, adding organic carbon along the way to the upper 100 m at rates of between 8 and 34 % of the alongshore average NCP as a function of offshore distance. Although the divergence of this lateral export of organic carbon enhances local respiration, the upper 100 m layer in our model remains net autotrophic in the entire eastern subtropical North Atlantic. However, the vertical export of this organic carbon and its subsequent remineralization at depth makes the vertically integrated NCP strongly negative throughout this region, with the exception of a narrow band along the northwestern African shelf. The magnitude and efficiency of the lateral export varies substantially between the different subregions. In particular, the central coast near Cape Blanc is particularly efficient in collecting organic carbon on the shelf and subsequently transporting it offshore. In this central subregion, the offshore transport adds as much organic carbon as nearly 60 % of the local NCP to the upper 100 m, giving rise to a sharp peak of offshore respiration that extends to the middle of the gyre. Our modeled offshore transport of organic carbon is likely a lower-bound estimate due to our lack of full consideration of the contribution of dissolved organic carbon and that of particulate organic carbon stemming from the resuspension of sediments. But even in the absence of these contributions, our results emphasize the fundamental role of the lateral redistribution of the organic carbon for the maintenance of the heterotrophic activity in the open sea.

Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea–air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types – taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea–air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr−1 (standard deviation over 1992–2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is −1.75 PgC yr−1 (1992–2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

We use an eddy-resolving, regional ocean biogeochemical model to investigate the main variables and processes responsible for the climatological spatio-temporal variability of pCO2 and the air-sea CO2 fluxes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, the region acts as a sink of atmospheric CO2 south of 30° S, and is close to equilibrium with the atmospheric CO2 to the north. On the shelves, the ocean acts as a weak source of CO2, except for the mid/outer shelves of Patagonia, which act as sinks. In contrast, the inner shelves and the low latitude open ocean of the southwestern Atlantic represent source regions. Observed nearshore-to-offshore and meridional pCO2 gradients are well represented by our simulation. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of the counteracting effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in controlling the seasonal variability of pCO2. Biological production and solubility are the main processes regulating pCO2, with biological production being particularly important on the shelves. The role of mixing/stratification in modulating DIC, and therefore surface pCO2, is shown in a vertical profile at the location of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) site in the Argentine Basin (42° S, 42° W).

The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr−1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around −0.009 W m−2 K−1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

We report global long-term trends in surface ocean pH using a new pH data set computed by combining fCO2 observations from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) version 2 with surface alkalinity estimates based on temperature and salinity. Trends were determined over the periods 1981–2011 and 1991–2011 for a set of 17 biomes using a weighted linear least squares method. We observe significant decreases in surface ocean pH in ~70% of all biomes and a mean rate of decrease of 0.0018 ± 0.0004 yr−1 for 1991–2011. We are not able to calculate a global trend for 1981–2011 because too few biomes have enough data for this. In half the biomes, the rate of change is commensurate with the trends expected based on the assumption that the surface ocean pH change is only driven by the surface ocean CO2 chemistry remaining in a transient equilibrium with the increase in atmospheric CO2. In the remaining biomes, deviations from such equilibrium may reflect that the trend of surface ocean fCO2 is not equal to that of the atmosphere, most notably in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, or may reflect changes in the oceanic buffer (Revelle) factor. We conclude that well-planned and long-term sustained observational networks are key to reliably document the ongoing and future changes in ocean carbon chemistry due to anthropogenic forcing.

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

Like other inland seas, the Caspian Sea (CS) has been influenced by climate change and anthropogenic disturbance during recent decades, yet the scientific understanding of this water body remains poor. In this study, an eco-geographical classification of the CS based on physical information derived from space and in situ data is developed and tested against a set of biological observations. We used a two-step classification procedure, consisting of (i) a data reduction with self-organizing maps (SOMs) and (ii) a synthesis of the most relevant features into a reduced number of marine ecoregions using the hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) method. From an initial set of 12 potential physical variables, 6 independent variables were selected for the classification algorithm, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), bathymetry, sea ice, seasonal variation of sea surface salinity (DSSS), total suspended matter (TSM) and its seasonal variation (DTSM). The classification results reveal a robust separation between the northern and the middle/southern basins as well as a separation of the shallow nearshore waters from those offshore. The observed patterns in ecoregions can be attributed to differences in climate and geochemical factors such as distance from river, water depth and currents. A comparison of the annual and monthly mean Chl a concentrations between the different ecoregions shows significant differences (one-way ANOVA, P < 0.05). In particular, we found differences in phytoplankton phenology, with differences in the date of bloom initiation, its duration and amplitude between ecoregions. A first qualitative evaluation of differences in community composition based on recorded presence–absence patterns of 25 different species of plankton, fish and benthic invertebrate also confirms the relevance of the ecoregions as proxies for habitats with common biological characteristics.

A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

We quantify the CO2 source/sink nature of the California Current System (CalCS) and determine the drivers and processes behind the mean and spatiotemporal variability of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the surface ocean. To this end, we analyze eddy-resolving, climatological simulations of a coupled physical–biogeochemical oceanic model on the basis of the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). In the annual mean, the entire CalCS within 800 km of the coast and from ∼33° N to 46° N is essentially neutral with regard to atmospheric CO2: the model simulates an integrated uptake flux of −0.9 ± 3.6 Tg C yr−1, corresponding to an average flux density of −0.05 ± 0.20 mol C m−2 yr−1. This near zero flux is a consequence of an almost complete regional compensation between (i) strong outgassing in the nearshore region (first 100 km) that brings waters with high concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the surface and (ii) and a weaker, but more widespread uptake flux in the offshore region due to an intense biological reduction of this DIC, driven by the nutrients that are upwelled together with the DIC. The air–sea CO2 fluxes vary substantially in time, both on seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales, largely driven by variations in surface ocean pCO2. Most of the variability in pCO2 is associated with the seasonal cycle, with the exception of the nearshore region, where sub-seasonal variations driven by mesoscale processes dominate. In the regions offshore of 100 km, changes in surface temperature are the main driver, while in the nearshore region, changes in surface temperature, as well as anomalies in DIC and alkalinity (Alk) owing to changes in circulation, biological productivity and air–sea CO2 fluxes dominate. The prevalence of eddy-driven variability in the nearshore 100 km leads to a complex spatiotemporal mosaic of surface ocean pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes that require a substantial observational effort to determine the source/sink nature of this region reliably.

The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink has been shown to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 through 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from (i) a continuous improvement of the observations, i.e. the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) v1.5 database and (ii) a newly developed technique to interpolate the observations in space and time. In particular, we use a two-step neural network approach to reconstruct basin-wide monthly maps of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) at a resolution of 1° × 1°. From those, we compute the air–sea CO2 flux maps using a standard gas exchange parameterization and high-resolution wind speeds. The neural networks fit the observed pCO2 data with a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 10 μatm and with almost no bias. A check against independent time-series data and new data from SOCAT v2 reveals a larger RMSE of 22.8 μatm for the entire Atlantic Ocean, which decreases to 16.3 μatm for data south of 40° N. We estimate a decadal mean uptake flux of −0.45 ± 0.15 Pg C yr−1 for the Atlantic between 44° S and 79° N, representing the sum of a strong uptake north of 18° N (−0.39 ± 0.10 Pg C yr−1), outgassing in the tropics (18° S–18° N, 0.11 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1), and uptake in the subtropical/temperate South Atlantic south of 18° S (−0.16 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1), consistent with recent studies. The strongest seasonal variability of the CO2 flux occurs in the temperature-driven subtropical North Atlantic, with uptake in winter and outgassing in summer. The seasonal cycle is antiphased in the subpolar latitudes relative to the subtropics largely as a result of the biologically driven winter-to-summer drawdown of CO2. Over the 10 yr analysis period (1998 through 2007), sea surface pCO2 increased faster than that of the atmosphere in large areas poleward of 40° N, while in other regions of the North Atlantic the sea surface pCO2 increased at a slower rate, resulting in a barely changing Atlantic carbon sink north of the Equator (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). Surface ocean pCO2 increased at a slower rate relative to atmospheric CO2 over most of the Atlantic south of the Equator, leading to a substantial trend toward a stronger CO2 sink for the entire South Atlantic (−0.14 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1 decade−1). In contrast to the 10 yr trends, the Atlantic Ocean carbon sink varies relatively little on inter-annual timescales (±0.04 Pg C yr−1; 1 σ).

We analyse long-term trends in marine primary and particle export production and their link to marine phytoplankton community composition for the period 1960–2006 using a hindcast simulation of the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling Model coupled to the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model. In our simulation, global primary and export production decrease significantly over the last 50 yr, by 6.5% and 8% respectively. These changes are associated with an 8.5% decrease in small phytoplankton biomass and 5% decrease in zooplankton biomass. Diatom biomass decreases globally by 3%, but with strong temporal and spatial variability. The strongest decreases in primary and export production occur in the western Pacific, where enhanced stratification leads to stronger nutrient limitation and a decrease in total phytoplankton. The concurrent decrease in diatom fraction and in zooplankton biomass causes a lower export efficiency in this region. Substantial phytoplankton composition changes also occur in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, although these are masked in part by a high degree of interannual variability. In these regions, stronger wind stress enhances mixing, reducing the biomass of small phytoplankton, while diatoms profit from higher nutrient inputs and lower grazing pressure. The relative fraction of diatoms correlates positively with the export efficiency (r = 0.8, p < 0.05) in most areas except for the North Pacific and Antarctic Circumpolar Current, where the correlation is negative (r = –0.5, p < 0.05). However, the long-term trends in global export efficiency are ultimately driven by the reduction in small phytoplankton and particularly decreases in coccolithophore biomass. The diagnosed trends point toward a substantial sensitivity of marine primary production and export to climatic variations and trends.

Analysis of observations and sensitivity experiments with a new three-dimensional global model of stable carbon isotope cycling elucidate processes that control the distribution of δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the contemporary and preindustrial ocean. Biological fractionation and the sinking of isotopically light δ13C organic matter from the surface into the interior ocean leads to low δ13CDIC values at depths and in high latitude surface waters and high values in the upper ocean at low latitudes with maxima in the subtropics. Air–sea gas exchange has two effects. First, it acts to reduce the spatial gradients created by biology. Second, the associated temperature-dependent fractionation tends to increase (decrease) δ13CDIC values of colder (warmer) water, which generates gradients that oppose those arising from biology. Our model results suggest that both effects are similarly important in influencing surface and interior δ13CDIC distributions. However, since air–sea gas exchange is slow in the modern ocean, the biological effect dominates spatial δ13CDIC gradients both in the interior and at the surface, in contrast to conclusions from some previous studies. Calcium carbonate cycling, pH dependency of fractionation during air–sea gas exchange, and kinetic fractionation have minor effects on δ13CDIC. Accumulation of isotopically light carbon from anthropogenic fossil fuel burning has decreased the spatial variability of surface and deep δ13CDIC since the industrial revolution in our model simulations. Analysis of a new synthesis of δ13CDIC measurements from years 1990 to 2005 is used to quantify preformed and remineralized contributions as well as the effects of biology and air–sea gas exchange. The model reproduces major features of the observed large-scale distribution of δ13CDIC as well as the individual contributions and effects. Residual misfits are documented and analyzed. Simulated surface and subsurface δ13CDIC are influenced by details of the ecosystem model formulation. For example, inclusion of a simple parameterization of iron limitation of phytoplankton growth rates and temperature-dependent zooplankton grazing rates improves the agreement with δ13CDIC observations and satellite estimates of phytoplankton growth rates and biomass, suggesting that δ13C can also be a useful test of ecosystem models.

The Southern Ocean (44–75° S) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly sampled ocean regions. Different approaches have been used to estimate sea–air CO2 fluxes in this region: synthesis of surface ocean observations, ocean biogeochemical models, and atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Southern Ocean sea–air CO2 fluxes between 1990–2009. Using all models and inversions (26), the integrated median annual sea–air CO2 flux of −0.42 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 for the 44–75° S region, is consistent with the −0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 calculated using surface observations. The circumpolar region south of 58° S has a small net annual flux (model and inversion median: −0.04 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1 and observations: +0.04 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1), with most of the net annual flux located in the 44 to 58° S circumpolar band (model and inversion median: −0.36 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1 and observations: −0.35 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1). Seasonally, in the 44–58° S region, the median of 5 ocean biogeochemical models captures the observed sea–air CO2 flux seasonal cycle, while the median of 11 atmospheric inversions shows little seasonal change in the net flux. South of 58° S, neither atmospheric inversions nor ocean biogeochemical models reproduce the phase and amplitude of the observed seasonal sea–air CO2 flux, particularly in the Austral Winter. Importantly, no individual atmospheric inversion or ocean biogeochemical model is capable of reproducing both the observed annual mean uptake and the observed seasonal cycle. This raises concerns about projecting future changes in Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes. The median interannual variability from atmospheric inversions and ocean biogeochemical models is substantial in the Southern Ocean; up to 25% of the annual mean flux, with 25% of this interannual variability attributed to the region south of 58° S. Resolving long-term trends is difficult due to the large interannual variability and short time frame (1990–2009) of this study; this is particularly evident from the large spread in trends from inversions and ocean biogeochemical models. Nevertheless, in the period 1990–2009 ocean biogeochemical models do show increasing oceanic uptake consistent with the expected increase of −0.05 Pg C yr−1 decade−1. In contrast, atmospheric inversions suggest little change in the strength of the CO2 sink broadly consistent with the results of Le Quéré et al. (2007).

The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data-based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air–sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on forward ocean models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 ± 31 PgC (±20% uncertainty). This estimate includes a broad range of values, suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.

The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs). The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS) have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995–2050) simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 and increasing oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations at the lateral boundaries, as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Our results show a large seasonal variability in pH (range of ~ 0.14) and Ωarag (~ 0.2) for the nearshore areas (50 km from shore). This variability is created by the interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes. Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved outside of their simulated preindustrial variability envelopes (defined by ±1 temporal standard deviation) due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS are simulated to move outside of their present-day variability envelopes by the mid-2040s and late 2030s, respectively. This transition may occur even earlier for nearshore surface Ωarag, which is projected to depart from its present-day variability envelope by the early- to mid-2030s. The aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75 m within the next 25 yr, causing near-permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Due to the model's overestimation of Ωarag, this transition may occur even earlier than simulated by the model. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching the dual threshold of widespread and near-permanent undersaturation with respect to aragonite and a departure from its variability envelope. In these regions, organisms may be forced to rapidly adjust to conditions that are both inherently chemically challenging and also substantially different from past conditions.

The Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are critical components of the global carbon cycle. Here we quantify the net sea–air CO2 flux, for the first time, across different methodologies for consistent time and space scales for the Atlantic and Arctic basins. We present the long-term mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and trends in sea–air CO2 flux for the period 1990 to 2009, and assign an uncertainty to each. We use regional cuts from global observations and modeling products, specifically a pCO2-based CO2 flux climatology, flux estimates from the inversion of oceanic and atmospheric data, and results from six ocean biogeochemical models. Additionally, we use basin-wide flux estimates from surface ocean pCO2 observations based on two distinct methodologies. Our estimate of the contemporary sea–air flux of CO2 (sum of anthropogenic and natural components) by the Atlantic between 40° S and 79° N is −0.49 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1, and by the Arctic it is −0.12 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1, leading to a combined sea–air flux of −0.61 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades (negative reflects ocean uptake). We do find broad agreement amongst methodologies with respect to the seasonal cycle in the subtropics of both hemispheres, but not elsewhere. Agreement with respect to detailed signals of interannual variability is poor, and correlations to the North Atlantic Oscillation are weaker in the North Atlantic and Arctic than in the equatorial region and southern subtropics. Linear trends for 1995 to 2009 indicate increased uptake and generally correspond between methodologies in the North Atlantic, but there is disagreement amongst methodologies in the equatorial region and southern subtropics.

Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of coral habitats is classified on the basis of the currently observed regional ranges for temperature and saturation states with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that, under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats are projected to expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between regions where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and regions where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the habitat suitable for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan may be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The habitat suitable for the temperate coral communities is also projected to decrease, although at a less pronounced rate, due to the higher tolerance of temperate corals for low Ωarag. Our study has two important caveats: first, it does not consider the potential adaptation of the coral communities, which would permit them to colonize habitats that are outside their current range. Second, it also does not consider whether or not coral communities can migrate quickly enough to actually occupy newly emerging habitats. As such, our results serve as a baseline for the assessment of the future evolution of coral habitats, but the consideration of important biological and ecological factors and feedbacks will be required to make more accurate projections.

Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are highly productive ocean regions. Yet, substantial differences in net primary production (NPP) exist within and between these systems for reasons that are still not fully understood. Here, we explore the leading physical processes and environmental factors controlling NPP in EBUS through a comparative study of the California, Canary, Benguela, and Humboldt Current systems. The NPP drivers are identified with the aid of an artificial neural network analysis based on self-organizing-maps (SOM). Our results suggest that in addition to the expected NPP enhancing effect of stronger equatorward alongshore wind, three factors have an inhibiting effect: (1) strong eddy activity, (2) narrow continental shelf, and (3) deep mixed layer. The co-variability of these 4 drivers defines in the context of the SOM a continuum of 100 patterns of NPP regimes in EBUS. These are grouped into 4 distinct classes using a Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC) method. Our objective classification of EBUS reveals important variations of NPP regimes within each of the four EBUS, particularly in the Canary and Benguela Current systems. Our results show that the Atlantic EBUS are generally more productive and more sensitive to upwelling favorable winds because of weaker factors inhibiting NPP. Perturbations of alongshore winds associated with climate change may therefore lead to contrasting biological responses in the Atlantic and the Pacific EBUS.

The magnitude of net primary production (NPP) in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is traditionally viewed as directly reflecting the wind-driven upwelling intensity. Yet, different EBUS show different sensitivities of NPP to upwelling-favorable winds (Carr and Kearns, 2003). Here, using a comparative modeling study of the California Current System (California CS) and Canary Current System (Canary CS), we show how physical and environmental factors, such as light, temperature and cross-shore circulation modulate the response of NPP to upwelling strength. To this end, we made a series of eddy-resolving simulations of the two upwelling systems using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS), coupled to a nitrogen-based Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model. Using identical ecological/biogeochemical parameters, our coupled model simulates a level of NPP in the California CS that is 50 % smaller than that in the Canary CS, in agreement with observationally based estimates. We find this much lower NPP in the California CS despite phytoplankton in this system having nearly 20 % higher nutrient concentrations available to fuel their growth. This conundrum can be explained by: (1) phytoplankton having a faster nutrient-replete growth in the Canary CS relative to the California CS; a consequence of more favorable light and temperature conditions in the Canary CS, and (2) the longer nearshore water residence times in the Canary CS, which permit a larger buildup of biomass in the upwelling zone, thereby enhancing NPP. The longer residence times in the Canary CS appear to be a result of the wider continental shelves and the lower mesoscale activity characterizing this upwelling system. This results in a weaker offshore export of nutrients and organic matter, thereby increasing local nutrient recycling and reducing the spatial decoupling between new and export production in the Canary CS. Our results suggest that climate change-induced perturbations such as upwelling favorable wind intensification might lead to contrasting biological responses in the California CS and the Canary CS, with major implications for the biogeochemical cycles and fisheries in these two ecosystems.

We show here an updated estimate of the net land carbon sink (NLS) as a function of time from 1960 to 2007 calculated from the difference between fossil fuel emissions, the observed atmospheric growth rate, and the ocean uptake obtained by recent ocean model simulations forced with reanalysis wind stress and heat and water fluxes. Except for interannual variability, the net land carbon sink appears to have been relatively constant at a mean value of −0.27 Pg C yr−1 between 1960 and 1988, at which time it increased abruptly by −0.88 (−0.77 to −1.04) Pg C yr−1 to a new relatively constant mean of −1.15 Pg C yr−1 between 1989 and 2003/7 (the sign convention is negative out of the atmosphere). This result is detectable at the 99% level using a t-test. The land use source (LU) is relatively constant over this entire time interval. While the LU estimate is highly uncertain, this does imply that most of the change in the net land carbon sink must be due to an abrupt increase in the land sink, LS = NLS – LU, in response to some as yet unknown combination of biogeochemical and climate forcing. A regional synthesis and assessment of the land carbon sources and sinks over the post 1988/1989 period reveals broad agreement that the Northern Hemisphere land is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but there remain major discrepancies with regard to the sign and magnitude of the net flux to and from tropical land.

The quantification of the amount of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) that the ocean has taken up from the atmosphere since pre-industrial times is a challenging task because of the need to deconvolute this signal from the natural, unperturbed concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Nonetheless, a range of techniques have been devised that perform this separation using the information implicit in other physical, biogeochemical, and man-made ocean tracers. One such method is the TrOCA approach, which belongs to a group of back-calculation techniques, but relative to other methods employs a simple parameterization for estimating the preformed, pre-industrial concentration, the key quantity needed to determine Cant. Here we examine the theoretical foundation of the TrOCA approach and test its accuracy by deconvoluting the known distribution of Cant from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulation of the industrial period (1864–2004). We reveal that the TrOCA tracer reflects the air-sea exchange of both natural and anthropogenic CO2 as well as that of O2. Consequently, the determination of the anthropogenic CO2 flux component requires an accurate determination not only of the contribution of the natural (pre-industrial) CO2 flux component, but also of the O2 flux component. The TrOCA method attempts to achieve this by assuming that the concentration changes invoked by these two air-sea flux components scale with temperature and alkalinity. While observations support a strong exponential scaling of the oxygen flux component with temperature, there exists no simple relationship of the natural CO2 flux component with temperature and/or alkalinity. This raises doubts whether the sum of these two components can be adequately parameterized with a single function. The analyses of the model support this conclusion, even when Cant is deconvoluted using parameter values that were optimized on the basis of the synthetic dataset from the model. Application of an optimal, but globally uniform set of parameters for the estimation of Cant results in a global positive bias in the inventory of more than a factor of two, suggesting that a "universal" TrOCA parameterisation is not achieveable. Even the application of regionally specific sets of parameters causes, on average, a global positive bias of more than 50%. This is substantially larger than the potential positive bias of 7% identified for the ΔC* method using a similar model-based assessment method.

Using numerical simulations, we quantify the impact of changes in the ocean's biological pump on the air-sea balance of CO2 by fertilizing a small surface patch in the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll region of the eastern tropical Pacific with iron. Decade-long fertilization experiments are conducted in a basin-scale, eddy-permitting coupled physical/biogeochemical/ecological model. In contrast to previous studies, we find that most of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) removed from the euphotic zone by the enhanced biological export is replaced by uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. Atmospheric uptake efficiencies, the ratio of the perturbation in air-sea CO2 flux to the perturbation in export flux across 100 m, integrated over 10 years, are 0.75 to 0.93 in our patch size-scale experiments. The atmospheric uptake efficiency is insensitive to the duration of the experiment. The primary factor controlling the atmospheric uptake efficiency is the vertical distribution of the enhanced biological production and export. Iron fertilization at the surface tends to induce production anomalies primarily near the surface, leading to high efficiencies. In contrast, mechanisms that induce deep production anomalies (e.g. altered light availability) tend to have a low uptake efficiency, since most of the removed DIC is replaced by lateral and vertical transport and mixing. Despite high atmospheric uptake efficiencies, patch-scale iron fertilization of the ocean's biological pump tends to remove little CO2 from the atmosphere over the decadal timescale considered here.