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Following the paradigm for reforming the current CAP, the first objective of this study is to give insights into the economic impact of post-2013 CAP measures at different levels of aggregation (e.g. EU, Member State and region). The post-2013 CAP measures included are directed towards income for the farmers, competitiveness, valuable areas and ecosystem services. The second objective is to analyse the impact of a scenario that combines the above mentioned post-2013 CAP measures. This study can be seen as a first attempt to quantify the transition to a CAP with more targeted measures at the European level and reveals considerable methodological and data challenges. A key finding is that the impact of the various measures is very different with regard to various economic indicators.

The aim of this paper is to show the consequences of a model extension towards the presentation of by-product in the production of biofuels. By-products can be used as a substitute for feed grain use in livestock production. A boost in biofuel production will also show a strong increase in the availability of by-products. To identify the impact of modelling biofuel production with and without presentation of by-products two different model versions have been applied. The simulation results of both model versions show that the EU mandatory blending mandate has a pronounced impact on the markets for grains, oilseeds and sugar but a rather limited impact on production level of aggregated primary agricultural output. The analysis shows that apart from direct effects of an enhanced demand for bioenergy on production and land use, the indirect effects of the EU Biofuel Directive (BFD) dominates. Additional production of biofuel crops within and outside the EU leads to strong indirect land use changes which are partly compensated for a higher availability of feed byproducts of biofuel production

The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of the biofuel production process and substitution between different feed components and feed byproducts. The simulation results shows that the implementation of the EU BFD has a pronounced impact on the markets of cereals, oilseeds and sugar and shows only a limited impact on production and consumption of other agrifood commodities which are not directly affected by biofuel production. The harvested area and production of biofuel crops (grains, oilseeds) is expected to increase by 17% and 25% respectively and sugar production by 12% as a direct result the BFD. The EU-imports of these commodities are expected to rise more than twice. The increasing demand for biofuel crops and sugar will lift domestic prices of these commodities by 25% and 19% respectively but overall agri-food price inflation will be limited to 3% in the EU and to less than 1% at world market level.

This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020 De analyse laat zien dat een toegenomen vraag naar gewassen voor biobrandstof onder de huidige EU-richtlijnen zowel Europees als wereldwijd grote gevolgen heeft voor de landbouw en biodiversiteit. De huidige stijging van de voedselprijzen kan slechts ten dele toegeschreven worden aan de teelt van gewassen voor biobrandstof. Zonder bijmengverplichting of subsidies op biobrandstof zullen de doelen die de EU zich gesteld heeft voor 2010 en 2020 niet gehaald worden

This report explores the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions and on changing commodity production areas by coupling of the modeling tools GTAP and IMAGE. Four scenarios are explored with developments up tot 2050. The scenarios include a baseline, full liberalisation and two partial liberalisation scenarios for which the latter scenarios include removal of trade barriers or removal of milk quota by 2015 only. The results indicate that liberalisation leads to a further increase in greenhouse gas emissions adding to an already observed increase in emissions observed in the baseline scenario. CO2 emission increase is caused by vegetation clearance due to a rapid expansion of agricultural areas in South America and South East Asia. Increased methane emissions are also calculated in these areas caused by less intensive cattle farming. Global production of the commodities milk, dairy and beef does not change between full liberalisation and the baseline but clear shifts from North America and Europe to South America and South East Asia are expected.