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In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the objective of establishing a resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources. This report contributes to the plan by evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. Such effects can only be evaluated with a computable general equilibrium model such as MAGNET. Four bio-based applications are considered, namely biofuel (second generation), biochemicals, bioelectricity, and biogas (synthetic natural gas). This is done assuming that 1 EJ lignocellulose biomass is converted into fuel, chemicals, electricity and gas and that the final product replaces an equal amount of conventional (e.g. fossil energy) product (on energy basis). The results show that given the assumed efficiency of conversion technology, costs of conversion, biomass price and oil price, the production of second generation biofuel and biochemicals are the only competitive sectors compare to their conventional counterparts in the year 2030 for the EU. In the case of the fuel sectors, it represents a net GDP effect of 5.1 billion US dollars while biochemicals generates 6 billion US dollars. A substantial part of this impact can be explained by the increase in wages, since the production of biomass is relatively labour intensive. The resulting increase in wages is transmitted to other sectors in the economy and increases production and consumption. Another important contributor is the lower oil and fuel price as a result of the substitution of oil based fuel production by bio-based fuel production, which in turn benefits the entire economy

This paper assesses the complex interplay between global Renewable Energy Directives (RED) and the United Nations programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The interaction of the two policies is examined using a scenario approach with a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model. The consequences of a global biofuel directive on worldwide land use, agricultural production, international trade flows, food prices and food security out to 2030 are evaluated with and without a strict global REDD policy.

Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and estimation economic effects of these.However, only few global modeling studies concerning this issue exist, and the actual implementation can take many forms. This study uses the approach of assuming that non Annex-I countries protect carbon rich areas from deforestation, and therefore loose the opportunity to use it as agricultural area. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD are assessed with the global economic model LEITAP and the biophysical model IMAGE. A key methodological challenge is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert forestry land into agricultural land as REDD policies might prevent the use of forest for agriculture. We endogenize availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve and proxy the implementation of the REDD policies as a shift in the asymptote of this curve representing maximal agricultural land availability in various regions in the world. In a series of experiments, increasingly more carbon rich areas are protected from deforestation, the associated costs in terms of GDP reduction are calculated with the economic model. The associated reduction in CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by the IMAGE model. From this series of experiments, abatement cost curves, relating CO2 emission reduction to costs of this reduction, are constructed. The results show that globally a maximum CO2 reduction of around 2.5 Gt could be achieved. However, regional differences are large, ranging from about 0 to 3.2 USD per ton CO2 in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia

This paper analyses the complex battle between RED and REDD policies and the resulting global consequences on land use, agricultural production, international trade flows and world food prices. A key methodological challenge is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert forestry land into agricultural land as REDD policies might prevent the use of forestry and wood lands for agriculture. The paper introduces a flexible land supply function allowing large changes in the total potential land availability for agriculture due to environmental considerations such as reducing emissions from deforestation. The parameters of the new land supply function are defined as variables of the model. In the paper, we simplify the implementation of the REDD policies as a shift in potential availability for agricultural land in various regions in the world. Both analysed policies are designed to save emissions but their land use impacts are opposite. The paper shows that global RED policies expand global land use with 3% relative to the baseline. Land abundant countries such as Canada, USA and Indonesia extend their use of agricultural land and their agricultural production. Severe REDD policies that protect all forest and woodlands in especially tropical land abundant regions such as Central and South America, South Africa and Indonesia imply a global reduction of agricultural land by 5% and lead to higher food and land prices. REDD policies reverse production and trade patterns as previous land abundant countries become land scarce countries.

This Macro-economic Impact Study (MES) provides quantitative insights into the macro-economic effects of introducing green, palmbased alternatives for electricity, fuels, chemicals and materials industries in Malaysia between now and 2030. Deze macro-economische impactstudie (MES) biedt kwantitatieve inzichten in de macro-economische effecten van de invoering tussen nu en 2030 van groene, op palmolie gebaseerde alternatieven voor de productie van elektriciteit, brandstoffen, chemicaliën en materialen in Maleisië.

Following the paradigm for reforming the current CAP, the first objective of this study is to give insights into the economic impact of post-2013 CAP measures at different levels of aggregation (e.g. EU, Member State and region). The post-2013 CAP measures included are directed towards income for the farmers, competitiveness, valuable areas and ecosystem services. The second objective is to analyse the impact of a scenario that combines the above mentioned post-2013 CAP measures. This study can be seen as a first attempt to quantify the transition to a CAP with more targeted measures at the European level and reveals considerable methodological and data challenges. A key finding is that the impact of the various measures is very different with regard to various economic indicators.

Mondiale ecosystemen staan zwaar onder druk. Het beschermen van waardevolle natuurgebieden is niet voldoende om de afname van de biodiversiteit te verminderen, maar blijft wel noodzakelijk. Om het tempo van het biodiversiteitverlies fors af te remmen, zijn structurele veranderingen in consumptie en productie nodig. Er valt veel winst te behalen bij vermindering van de vleesconsumptie. Daarnaast zijn vooral in de land- en bosbouw, visserij en energievoorziening veranderingen nodig. Het Planbureau identificeert nieuwe strategieën voor VN-top in Nagoya

The aim of this paper is to show the consequences of a model extension towards the presentation of by-product in the production of biofuels. By-products can be used as a substitute for feed grain use in livestock production. A boost in biofuel production will also show a strong increase in the availability of by-products. To identify the impact of modelling biofuel production with and without presentation of by-products two different model versions have been applied. The simulation results of both model versions show that the EU mandatory blending mandate has a pronounced impact on the markets for grains, oilseeds and sugar but a rather limited impact on production level of aggregated primary agricultural output. The analysis shows that apart from direct effects of an enhanced demand for bioenergy on production and land use, the indirect effects of the EU Biofuel Directive (BFD) dominates. Additional production of biofuel crops within and outside the EU leads to strong indirect land use changes which are partly compensated for a higher availability of feed byproducts of biofuel production

This study investigates the effectiveness of post-2013 CAP measures. In addition to the measures proposed in the Dutch Outlook (focusing on competitiveness, valuable areas and ecosystem services) the effectiveness of base premiums are considered, as this measure is proposed by some other Member States. This study can be seen as a first attempt to quantify the transition to a CAP with more targeted measures at the European level and reveals considerable methodological and data challenges. A key finding is that the impact of the various measures is very different with regard to various economic and environmental indicators. There is also a difference in the impact of a measure between regions, sectors and farm types. In dit onderzoek wordt ingegaan op de effectiviteit van verschillende doelgerichte maatregelen van het GLB na 2013. Naast effectiviteit van de maatregelen die zijn voorgesteld in de Houtskoolschets (die gericht zijn op het concurrentievermogen, de waardevolle gebieden en de ecosysteemdiensten) wordt ook gekeken naar de effectiviteit van eventuele basispremies, zoals voorgesteld door sommige andere lidstaten. Dit onderzoek kan worden gezien als een eerste poging als een eerste poging tot het kwantificeren van de overgang van het GLB met meer gerichte maatregelen op Europees niveau. Uit dit onderzoek komen grote uitdagingen op het gebied van methodologieën en data naar boven. Een van de belangrijkste bevindingen is dat de impact van de diverse maatregelen zeer veschillend is met betrekking tot verscheidene economische en milieu-indicatoren. Ook is er een verschil van impact van de maatregelen tussen regio's, sectoren en bedrijfssoorten.

The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of the biofuel production process and substitution between different feed components and feed byproducts. The simulation results shows that the implementation of the EU BFD has a pronounced impact on the markets of cereals, oilseeds and sugar and shows only a limited impact on production and consumption of other agrifood commodities which are not directly affected by biofuel production. The harvested area and production of biofuel crops (grains, oilseeds) is expected to increase by 17% and 25% respectively and sugar production by 12% as a direct result the BFD. The EU-imports of these commodities are expected to rise more than twice. The increasing demand for biofuel crops and sugar will lift domestic prices of these commodities by 25% and 19% respectively but overall agri-food price inflation will be limited to 3% in the EU and to less than 1% at world market level.

This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020 De analyse laat zien dat een toegenomen vraag naar gewassen voor biobrandstof onder de huidige EU-richtlijnen zowel Europees als wereldwijd grote gevolgen heeft voor de landbouw en biodiversiteit. De huidige stijging van de voedselprijzen kan slechts ten dele toegeschreven worden aan de teelt van gewassen voor biobrandstof. Zonder bijmengverplichting of subsidies op biobrandstof zullen de doelen die de EU zich gesteld heeft voor 2010 en 2020 niet gehaald worden

A scenario study from 2000 to 2050 has been performed (by Natuur en Milieuplanbureau, UNEP and WCMC) to explore the effects of future economic, demographic and technical developments on environmental pressures and global biodiversity. Policy options that affect global biodiversity were analysed on their contribution to the 2010 biodiversity targets agreed upon under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The mean species abundance of natural occurring species was used as indicator for biodiversity. To analyse the economic and environmental consequences of changes in global drivers and policies, we developed a global economic-biophysical framework by combining the extended GTAP model (Van Meijl et al., 2005) with the IMAGE model (Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE Team, 2001).

EURURALIS is developed for policy makers dealing with the future of agriculture and other land use in the enlarged Europe of 25 member states. Expecting that major developments affect the rural areas in Europe pro-active rural policy has to be informed timely and in a targeted and crispy way. A scenario study was launched that built upon : I) recognizable and internationally authorized scenarios encompassing drivers such as global developments like world trade, climate change, demography, II) predicted transformations in land use (area, regions, intensity), III) impacts on the various domains of sustainability (People, Planet, Profit) and IV) possibilities of policy instruments. The study builds upon IPCC and related scenarios, though adapted for our goals, a global economy model (GTAP/LEITAP) linked to an environmental model (IMAGE) and thirdly a land use allocation model (CLUE). Modelling outcomes were generated for 30 years in 10 year time steps; indicators were selected from economical, socio-cultural and environmental/ecological domains respectively. Meta-indicators were added to offer overview. The product is tuned to non-specialists and offers many graphs, maps and texts for easy use in policy, research and education. This background document aims not to deliver the contents of the CD Rom in a hard copy version, but focuses on policy context, leading concepts, methods and data. It also offers discussions on desired improvements and ways to expand the current 1.0 version.

The impact of globalization on poverty and the environment was a central issue during the Doha development round table and the mass demonstrations on the streets of Cancun. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade regimes, poverty and the environment given two key uncertainties. First, a world where Doha succeeds and globalization proceeds versus a world that moves to regionalism with a stronger orientation toward bilateral and regional trade agreements. Secondly, a world that focuses on economic incentives and economic growth and a limited role for the government versus a world where public and private institutions value also environment and ecology. In our analyses we quantify the impact of trade liberalization on developing countries and the environment. We found that liberalization leads to economic benefits. The benefits are modest in terms of GDP and unequally distributed among countries. Developing countries gain relatively the most. However, between 70 and 85 per cent of the benefits for developing countries is the result of their own reform policies in agriculture. South-South trade liberalization is key to the ¿development¿ part of this round. Liberalization can be helpful in gaining welfare; however uncoordinated liberalization can lead to unbearable pressures on the environment. In the liberalizing scenarios most of these shifts occur, indicating that liberalization should be performed with care. Trade liberalization will necessary have environmental consequences, which might be positive or negative for a region. What seems crucial is that environmental and trade agreements and policies must be sufficiently integrated or coordinated, to assure that they work together to improve the environment and attain the benefits of free trade.

In samenhang met de uitbreiding van de EU en de Doha-WTO-handelsliberalisatieronde staan er belangrijke wijzigingen in het Gemeenschappelijk Landbouwbeleid voor de deur. Voor een goede beoordeling van de voorstellen zijn veronderstellingen en projecties over de toekomst nodig. In deze studie staan projecties van prijzen op agrarische wereldmarkten centraal. Er wordt inzicht gegeven in de manier waarop projecties tot stand komen en hoe ze moeten worden verstaan. Daarnaast is de statistische voorspelkracht van projecties on-derzocht. Wereldmarktprijzen zijn instabiel en zullen dat ook in de toekomst blijven. De voorspel-fouten voor wereldprijzen in de gangbare projecties zijn relatief groot. Er blijken telkens verrassingen op te treden in exogene variabelen zoals opbrengsten per hectare, die sterk af-hankelijk zijn van weersomstandigheden, plagen en ziektes. Het doel van de gangbare basislijnen is echter niet om het meest aannemelijke toekomstbeeld te genereren, maar om implicaties van verschillende beleidsopties te helpen simuleren. Voor beleidsmakers is de geloofwaardigheid van een projectie van belang. Die geloofwaardigheid wordt sterk be-paald door niet-statistische criteria van economische en logische coherentie en stabiliteit. Met causale modellen, die oorzaken en gevolgen met elkaar verbinden, kan aan die criteria worden voldaan. De relevante onzekerheden kunnen bespreekbaar worden gemaakt met onzekerheidsvarianten en scenario's.