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Subantarctic islands form ideal sentinels to climate change. These islands support terrestrial and marine ecosystems that are relatively simple and extremely sensitive to perturbations. They provide an ideal natural laboratory for studying how ecosystems respond to a changing climate in the Southern Ocean. Initial studies and subsequent analyses at the Prince Edward Islands in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean have all shown that there has been a climatological rise of >1°C in the sea surface temperature since 1949. Mirrored to this rise is a decrease in rain, an increase in extreme events, an increase in winds from the warmer sector in the northwest, and annual sunshine hours have risen by 3.3 h since the 1950s. It has been proposed that climate changes reported at the Prince Edward Islands correspond in time to a southward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and in particular its frontal systems the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and the Antarctic Polar Front (APF), between which the islands lie (Figure 1). The Prince Edward Islands, like many other oceanic islands within the Southern Ocean, are seasonally characterised by vast populations of marine organisms and a diversity and abundance of seabirds that use the islands as breeding grounds. It is estimated that the islands support over 5 million breeding pairs of top predators including seabirds, penguins and seals during the peak breeding season. The energy necessary to sustain these top predators is derived from the close interaction between the oceanic environment and the islands themselves. Changes in the intensity and geographic position within these frontal systems are likely to coincide with dramatic changes in the distribution of species and total productivity within the Southern Ocean. Long-term research in both the offshore and near-shore environments of the Prince Edward Islands is critical if the mechanisms needed to sustain high concentrations of marine life in a changing environment are to be better understood and conserved. If ecosystems are pushed beyond certain thresholds or tipping points, there is a high risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and accompanying degradation of a broad range of ecosystem services. Furthermore, a real threat brought on by a warmer climate will be the increase in ease in which pristine Subantarctic islands such as the Prince Edward Islands can be invaded by alien species.

Several commercially and ecologically important species in the southern Benguela have undergone southward and eastward shifts in their distributions over previous decades, most notably the small pelagic fish sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus . Understanding these changes and their implications is essential in implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the southern Benguela and attempting to appreciate the potential impacts of future environmental change. To investigate possible impacts of these shifts at an ecosystem level, distribution maps for before (1985-1991), during (1997-2000) and after (2003-2008) the shift in small pelagic fish were constructed for 14 key species from catch and survey data, and used to calculate spatial indicators including proportion east and west of Cape Agulhas, relative overlap in biomass and area, index of diversity, connectivity. Potential interactions on the south and west coasts were also compared. For several species (redeye; chub mackerel; kingklip; chokka squid; yellowtail), previously unidentified increases in the proportion of biomass east of Cape Agulhas were shown to have occurred over the same period as that of small pelagic fish, although none to the same degree. On average, overlap with small pelagic fish increased over time and overall system connectivity was lowest in the intermediate period, possibly indicating a system under transition. Connectivity declined over time on the west coast while increasing on the east coast. Distributions of other species have changed over time, with the region east of Cape Agulhas becoming increasingly important in terms of potential trophic interaction. Variations in distribution of biomass and structural complexity affect the trophic structure and hence functioning of the system, and implications should be considered when attempting to identify the possible ecosystem impacts of current and future system-level change.

The Vibrio cholerae N-acetyl glucosamine-binding protein A (GbpA) is a chitin-binding protein involved in V . cholerae attachment to environmental chitin surfaces and human intestinal cells. We previously investigated the distribution and genetic variations of gbpA in a large collection of V . cholerae strains and found that the gene is consistently present and highly conserved in this species. Primers and probe were designed from the gbpA sequence of V . cholerae and a new Taq-based qPCR protocol was developed for diagnostic detection and quantification of the bacterium in environmental and stool samples. In addition, the positions of primers targeting the gbpA gene region were selected to obtain a short amplified fragment of 206 bp and the protocol was optimized for the analysis of formalin-fixed samples, such as historical Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples. Overall, the method is sensitive (50 gene copies), highly specific for V . cholerae and failed to amplify strains of the closely-related species Vibrio mimicus . The sensitivity of the assay applied to environmental and stool samples spiked with V . cholerae ATCC 39315 was comparable to that of pure cultures and was of 10 2 genomic units/l for drinking and seawater samples, 10 1 genomic units/g for sediment and 10 2 genomic units/g for bivalve and stool samples. The method also performs well when tested on artificially formalin-fixed and degraded genomic samples and was able to amplify V . cholerae DNA in historical CPR samples, the earliest of which date back to August 1966. The detection of V . cholerae in CPR samples collected in cholera endemic areas such as the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) is of particular significance and represents a proof of concept for the possible use of the CPR technology and the developed qPCR assay in cholera studies.

We set out to explore some of the impediments which hinder effective communication among fishers, fisheries researchers and managers using detailed ethnographic research amongst commercial handline fishers from two sites– one on the southern Cape coast and the other on the west coast of South Africa. Rather than assuming that the knowledge of fishers and scientists is inherently divergent and incompatible, we discuss an emerging relational approach to working with multiple ways of knowing and suggest that this approach might benefit future collaborative endeavours. Three major themes arising from the ethnographic fieldwork findings are explored: different classifications of species and things; bringing enumerative approaches into dialogue with relational approaches; and the challenge of articulating embodied ways of relating to fish and the sea. Although disconcertments arise when apparently incommensurable approaches are brought into dialogue, we suggest that working with multiple ways of knowing is both productive and indeed necessary in the current South African fisheries research and management contexts. The research findings and discussion on opening dialogue offered in this work suggest a need to rethink contemporary approaches to fisheries research in order to mobilise otherwise stagnant conversations, bringing different ways of knowing into productive conversation.

The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N 2 P 2 Z 2 D 2 -OSMOSE). Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects of fishing and environmental variability.

Gridded SST products developed particularly for offshore regions are increasingly being applied close to the coast for biogeographical applications. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the dangers of doing so through a comparison of reprocessed MODIS Terra and Pathfinder v5.2 SSTs, both at 4 km resolution, with instrumental in situ temperatures taken within 400 m from the coast. We report large biases of up to +6°C in places between satellite-derived and in situ climatological temperatures for 87 sites spanning the entire ca . 2 700 km of the South African coastline. Although biases are predominantly warm (i.e. the satellite SSTs being higher), smaller or even cold biases also appear in places, especially along the southern and western coasts of the country. We also demonstrate the presence of gradients in temperature biases along shore-normal transects -- generally SSTs extracted close to the shore demonstrate a smaller bias with respect to the in situ temperatures. Contributing towards the magnitude of the biases are factors such as SST data source, proximity to the shore, the presence/absence of upwelling cells or coastal embayments. Despite the generally large biases, from a biogeographical perspective, species distribution retains a correlative relationship with underlying spatial patterns in SST, but in order to arrive at a causal understanding of the determinants of biogeographical patterns we suggest that in shallow, inshore marine habitats, temperature is best measured directly.

Pelagic ecosystems support a significant and vital component of the ocean's productivity and biodiversity. They are also heavily exploited and, as a result, are the focus of numerous spatial planning initiatives. Over the past decade, there has been increasing enthusiasm for protected areas as a tool for pelagic conservation, however, few have been implemented. Here we demonstrate an approach to plan protected areas that address the physical and biological dynamics typical of the pelagic realm. Specifically, we provide an example of an approach to planning protected areas that integrates pelagic and benthic conservation in the southern Benguela and Agulhas Bank ecosystems off South Africa. Our aim was to represent species of importance to fisheries and species of conservation concern within protected areas. In addition to representation, we ensured that protected areas were designed to consider pelagic dynamics, characterized from time-series data on key oceanographic processes, together with data on the abundance of small pelagic fishes. We found that, to have the highest likelihood of reaching conservation targets, protected area selection should be based on time-specific data rather than data averaged across time. More generally, we argue that innovative methods are needed to conserve ephemeral and dynamic pelagic biodiversity.

Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. Fil: Cruz-Motta, Juan José. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Miloslavich, Patricia. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Palomo, Maria Gabriela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales “Bernardino Rivadavia”; Argentina Fil: Iken, Katrin. University Of Alaska; Estados Unidos Fil: Konar, Brenda. University Of Alaska; Estados Unidos Fil: Pohle, Gerhard. Huntsman Marine Science Centre; Canadá Fil: Trott, Tom. Suffolk University; Fil: Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro. Università degli Studi di Pisa; Italia Fil: Herrera, César. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Hernández, Alejandra. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Sardi, Adriana. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Bueno, Andrea. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Castillo, Julio. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Klein, Eduardo. Universidad Simón Bolívar; Venezuela Fil: Guerra-Castro, Edlin. Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas; Venezuela Fil: Gobin, Judith. The University Of The West Indies, St. Augustine Campus; Fil: Gómez, Diana Isabel. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras José Benito Vives de Andréis; Colombia Fil: Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael. Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Sur; Estados Unidos Fil: Mead, Angela. University Of Cape Town; Fil: Bigatti, Gregorio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina Fil: Knowlton, Ann. University Of Alaska; Estados Unidos Fil: Shirayama, Yoshihisa. Field Science Education And Research Center

Shark attacks on humans are high profile events which can significantly influence policies related to the coastal zone. A shark warning system in South Africa, Shark Spotters, recorded 378 white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) sightings at two popular beaches, Fish Hoek and Muizenberg, during 3690 six-hour long spotting shifts, during the months September to May 2006 to 2011. The probabilities of shark sightings were related to environmental variables using Binomial Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). Sea surface temperature was significant, with the probability of shark sightings increasing rapidly as SST exceeded 14 °C and approached a maximum at 18 °C, whereafter it remains high. An 8 times (Muizenberg) and 5 times (Fish Hoek) greater likelihood of sighting a shark was predicted at 18 °C than at 14 °C. Lunar phase was also significant with a prediction of 1.5 times (Muizenberg) and 4 times (Fish Hoek) greater likelihood of a shark sighting at new moon than at full moon. At Fish Hoek, the probability of sighting a shark was 1.6 times higher during the afternoon shift compared to the morning shift, but no diel effect was found at Muizenberg. A significant increase in the number of shark sightings was identified over the last three years, highlighting the need for ongoing research into shark attack mitigation. These patterns will be incorporated into shark awareness and bather safety campaigns in Cape Town.