1. PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
- Author
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Abdurakhman Abdurakhman, Gunardi Gunardi, Subanar Subanar, Yunita Sari, and Herni Utami
- Subjects
singular spectral analysis ,Mathematical optimization ,forecasting model ,Series (mathematics) ,Computer science ,linear recurrent formula ,Signal extraction ,Process (computing) ,lcsh:Probabilities. Mathematical statistics ,Electricity demand ,lcsh:QA273-280 ,electricity demand - Abstract
This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.
- Published
- 2019