Search

open 8 no Multiple processes contributing to natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Ravenna (Italy) were identified by analysing the relationships among different data set time series (water table level, rainfall, land reclamation drainage, sea level, etc.) and establishing the correlations with vertical ground motion observed at a high-resolution settlement gauge. Our study highlights the presence of three deformation components related to different processes controlling land subsidence: elastic, delayed-elastic, and irreversible (plastic) components. The elastic and delayed-elastic components are closely related to water table fluctuations that change the effective stress in two portions of the coastal aquifer at a daily (in the sandy unconfined portion) and seasonal time scales (in the layered clay-rich semi-confined prodelta portion), respectively. The irreversible component represents the trend in the land subsidence time series and is due to primary consolidation (pore pressure dissipation) of the fine-grained prodelta levels above where the settlement gauge is located. The amplitudes of the elastic component can be up to 0.2–0.3 mm whereas the amplitude of the delayed-elastic component reaches 0.89 mm. The primary consolidation rate of deformation is 0.9 mm yr−1 and constrains the likely age of prodelta sediments deposition to 1300–2800 years before present. The delayed-elastic subsidence rate has similar magnitude to that due to primary consolidation and is connected to poroelastic effects in the prodelta sequence following seasonal variations in water table. Our findings are important for planning land subsidence management and monitoring strategies especially where the surface aquifer structure is heterogeneous due to different depositional settings. The natural land subsidence rate in the Holocene sediments of the shallow coastal aquifer of Ravenna (North eastern Italy) that we measured in this study accounts for 10 %–20 % of the total current land subsidence rate observed in this portion of Ravenna coastal area (10–20 mm yr−1). open Antonellini, Marco; Giambastiani, Beatrice Maria Sole; Greggio, Nicolas; Bonzi, Luciana; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Perini, Luisa; Severi, Paolo Antonellini, Marco; Giambastiani, Beatrice Maria Sole; Greggio, Nicolas; Bonzi, Luciana; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Perini, Luisa; Severi, Paolo

As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ∼ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies designed in response to climate change.

The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20- to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.

This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The first approach was adopted before the directive had been issued. Three scenarios of damage were designed (1-, 10-, 100-year return periods), produced by the concurrent occurrence of a storm, high surge levels and high-water spring tidal levels. Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along 187 equally spaced profiles, and these were added to the tidal and atmospheric water level contributions. The result is a list of 10 vulnerability typologies. To satisfy the requirements of the directive, the Geological, Seismic and Soil Service (SGSS) recently implemented a different methodology that considers three scenarios (10-, 100- and > 100-year return periods) in terms of wave setup (not including run-up) plus the contribution of surge levels as well as the occurrence of high-water springs. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations that are part of a model built into ArcGIS®. The model uses as input a high-resolution lidar DEM that is then processed using a least-path cost analysis. Inundation maps are then overlapped with land use maps to produce risk maps. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods are also presented, showing a positive agreement.

The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The study site is the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (total water level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and > 100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost–Distance tool of ArcGIS® to a high-resolution digital terrain model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-to-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata-based SLEUTH model. The results show that if the urban growth progresses compactly, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-to-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identification of flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.