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The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment. Keywords: flood, simulation, distributed model, land-use changes, channel modifications, historical data

A stochastic rainfall generator and a deterministic rainfall-runoff model, both distributed in space and time, are combined to provide accurate flood frequency prediction in the Bisagno River basin (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy). The inadequacy of streamflow records with respect to the return period of the required flow discharges makes the stochastic simulation methodology a useful operational alternative to a regionalisation procedure for flood frequency analysis and derived distribution techniques. The rainfall generator is the Generalized Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (GNSRP) model. The rainfall-runoff model is the FEST98 model. The GNSRP generator was calibrated using a continuous 7-years' record of hourly precipitation measurements at five raingauges scattered over the Bisagno basin. The calibrated rainfall model was then used to generate a 1000 years' series of continuous rainfall data at the gauging sites and a flood-oriented model validation procedure was developed to evaluate the agreement between observed and simulated extreme values of rainfall at different scales of temporal aggregation. The synthetic precipitation series were input to the FEST98 model to provide flood hydrographs at selected cross-sections across the river network. Flood frequency analysis of the annual flood series (AFS) obtained from these simulations was undertaken using L-moment estimations of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions. The results are compared with those determined by applying a regional flood analysis in Thyrrhenian Liguria and the derived distribution techniques to the Bisagno river basin. This approach is also useful to assess the effects of changes in land use on flood frequency regime (see Rosso and Rulli, 2002). Keywords: flood frequency, stochastic rainfall generator, distributed rainfall runoff model, derived distribution