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The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, also known as the Rio Treaty, is one of the Organization of American States’ (OAS) founding agreements. The treaty includes language that provides for collective hemispheric defense, and it has been invoked on multiple occasions. However, Rio Treaty invocations have consistently struggled to generate salient multilateral security cooperation. This thesis hypothesizes, and finds, that the Rio Treaty has been unsuccessful at producing meaningful security cooperation because of repeated misuse by its signatories. To prove the hypothesis, this thesis examines OAS involvement in two regional crises, the 1965 Dominican Civil War and the Falklands/Malvinas War, in search of common themes. In both cases, a treaty signatory executed a fait accompli and then turned to the OAS in need of international legitimacy rather than strategic need. During the Dominican Civil War, the Rio Treaty was not invoked when it likely should have been. As a result, the Inter-American Peace Force (IAPF), which the OAS dispatched in response to the crisis, would remain forever unformalized. Argentina misused the Rio Treaty by invoking it after it had to face the military consequences of a conflict that it instigated with Great Britain. The vastly different OAS response to each case can be explained by vested U.S. interest in each conflict. http://archive.org/details/tepidpartnersthe1094567158 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Over the last decade there has been significant focus, particularly in national security circles, on the rise of China and its expansion in regions such as Latin America, Africa, and Asia. While it is relatively easy to identify literature examining China's rationale for expanding into Latin America, there is notably less that focuses on the reasons why Latin American countries let China in. This thesis seeks to understand why Latin American countries choose to economically cooperate with China through the form of accepting loans. By centering the agency of the countries receiving loans, this thesis identifies the economic and political decisions and institutions that have made Latin American countries potential partners for an emerging China. Overall, pre-existing commodity-based economic relationships and the presence of a centrist or left-wing government were the two factors most linked with accepting loans from China. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Operating under the assumption that proportional representation (PR) systems strengthen rather than undermine democracies, scholars have largely ignored the question of how this particular system interacts with presidentialism to shape stability outcomes. This thesis challenges that understanding. It argues that presidentialism, in interaction with PR for legislative elections, reduces coalition-formation incentives and makes inter-branch conflict in Latin American democracies more likely. Through a cross-regional comparative analysis and case studies on the Chilean and Venezuelan democratic experiences, this thesis shows that presidential systems experience higher levels of conflict when not subject to the systematic coalition incentives regularly produced by parliamentary or plurality-presidential systems. It also indicates that institutional factors can shape governing coalitions, independent of traditional political divides. Without electoral incentives to coalesce policy visions before elections or institutional mechanisms to ensure the formation of a majority coalition after the election, PR-presidential systems often create a multiparty result that is especially prone to inter-branch conflict and political crisis. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

This thesis approaches the study of identity politics in Latin America through the two cases of Guatemala and Bolivia. Both countries have similar histories of racism, indigenous demographic majorities, indigenous mobilization, democratization moments, and institutions, and yet the 1999 Guatemalan referendum failed where the 2009 Bolivian referendum succeeded at delivering indigenous rights. Why? This thesis seeks to understand Latin America's indigenous movements and identity politics with implications for conflict resolution or management, combating inequality, and expanding notions of democratic governance. The leading explanations for indigenous movements and politics in Latin America tend to revolve around institutions, social movements, and party systems. However, by examining national histories, contemporary news sources, relevant scholarship, and original materials from relevant political actors, this study proposes another explanation. It stipulates that the success of an indigenous movement in constitutionalizing its demands rests upon the unification of the movement, its programmatic appeal, and its ability to form coalitions with meaningful political allies, thus explaining the disparities in the Guatemalan and Bolivian movements. The Pan-Mayan movement did not meet the preponderance of criteria whereas Bolivia’s indigenous movement did, highlighting the importance of unity and broad appeal in diversifying the region’s politics. Major, United States Air Force Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

Within the last decade, Russia and China have greatly expanded their presence in Latin America—often in ways deemed threatening to U.S. national interests. Partly echoing the first half of the Cold War, the U.S. aims to maintain influence in the region while these states seek to counter any advances. At the same time, the current administration has proposed major cuts to the foreign aid budget. Many experts worry that large cuts could diminish U.S. influence and harm bilateral partnerships. Accordingly, the two case studies contained in this thesis assessed the impact of U.S. bilateral aid on influence in LATAM during the 1950s and 1960s. They both relied on primary U.S. sources (e.g., embassy reporting, congressional hearings, and now-declassified documents), as well as LATAM officials' statements. The research found that bilateral U.S. aid is an effective means to gain influence in the region when it (1) meets needs of recipients, (2) is cooperative and encourages interaction between U.S. personnel and Latin Americans, (3) is somewhat altruistic, and (4) respects recipients' autonomy. Conversely, aid damages influence when these conditions are reversed. Other tools of U.S. foreign policy, as well as many other factors, also contributed to shifts in influence. These are briefly addressed in each chapter to highlight the complexity and fleeting nature of U.S. influence overall. http://archive.org/details/aidandinfluencet1094564900 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Mired in turmoil, the current state of Venezuelan politics is rife with political corruption and abuses of power. This thesis uses resource curse theory and governance datasets to analytically study changes in Venezuela over time to identify how the 2014 petroleum market crash affected the instances of political corruption. The argument shows that, when petroleum rents plummeted, financial and political incentives caused the focus of the Venezuelan government’s corruption behaviors to change from controlling the economy’s profits to regime survival. The governance data used reveals that in the period surrounding the 2014 petroleum market price decline, incentives behind political corruption shifted from cashing in on oil profits to consolidating political power, which affected the types of corruption actions used by government officials. The findings in this thesis demonstrate that governments without institutional constraints are likely to use different kinds of politically corrupt activities to stay in power during periods of decreased petroleum rent than they do when experiencing windfall incomes. The lack of institutional constraint in Venezuela caused by the willful abuse of power, as well as insufficient government capacity, signals that hurried efforts to rebuild Venezuela must emphasize the quality of governance and the policing of corruption before focusing on repairing the economy. http://archive.org/details/theeffectofdecli1094562257 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Theory attempting to explain poverty and development is vast, varied, and, in many ways, inconclusive. In this thesis, I review core literature on the Industrial Revolution and the rise of Western Europe and the Asian Tigers, finding that their economic development rested on a cycle of three fundamental principles: rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. With an emphasis on Latin America, I then conduct a two-step analysis to determine the universal applicability of these factors. First, I analyze the implementation and outcomes of import substitution industrialization, finding an ambiguous correlation between this landmark set of economic policies and economic outcomes. Second, I develop a case study of Mexico that demonstrates a strong correlation between economic development and the three underpinnings of rule of law, access to capital, and strong, yet restrained, bureaucratic capacity. The thesis concludes that these three factors are universally crucial for sustained growth and development. This research also finds that the institutions that provide for these principles can take vastly different forms, and, in doing so, it joins a growing body of scholarship that emphasizes the significance of institutional function over institutional form. http://archive.org/details/foundationsforec1094559678 Captain, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

American society conventionally expects immigrants to assimilate, yet contemporary views question whether Latin American immigrants are choosing to conform to this standard. However, this perspective does not account for the structural constraints placed upon immigrants through the influence of U.S. foreign and immigration policy. During the Cold War, two cases—Cuba in the 1960s and El Salvador in the 1980s—demonstrated differential U.S. policy responses to sustained, large-scale exile migrations to the United States, particularly to Miami and Los Angeles. In these cases, the U.S. response was to welcome and provide a positive reception to Cubans in Miami, while Salvadorans were excluded and constrained by the negative reception afforded to them as illegal migrants in Los Angeles, with both responses stemming from U.S. foreign policy interests in Latin America. Twenty-five years after the first wave of exiles from each of these countries, both second generations appear to be assimilating in terms of educational attainment, but Salvadoran-Americans lag behind Cuban-Americans in occupational attainment and income levels. These differential outcomes indicate that reception contexts—government responses, economic opportunity, societal attitudes, and presence of ethnic communities—may accelerate or delay exile groups’ rates of structural assimilation, with legal status playing a major role in determining whether groups assimilate upward or downward. http://archive.org/details/cubanandsalvador1094559562 Major, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

States (principals) frequently employ pro-government militias (agents) in low intensity conflicts with mixed results. In some cases, principal and agent interests diverge or the principal loses control over its agent, which devolves into an autonomous terrorist, warlord, or criminal organization. Looking at historical cases of Latin American pro-government militias from Colombia (Self-Defense groups, Convivirs, and Hometown Soldiers) and Peru (Rondas Campesinas), I examined the principal-agent problem in the context of state-sponsored, pro-government militias and answered the following question: How do sponsor states succeed or fail in maintaining positive control and influence over pro-government militias? States fail when they grant too much autonomy and firepower to militias and succeed when they limit militias’ autonomy by subjecting them to a tailored combination of control mechanisms: monitoring, screening, sanctions, and rewards. Cases from Colombia and Peru demonstrate that the best way to control militias and employ them in counterinsurgency is by incorporating them as legitimate auxiliaries of the armed forces. Incorporation of a militia into the armed forces greatly reduces the principal-agent problem, the associated risk of diverging interests and objectives, and the future pain of demobilization. Arming militias with restricted use weapons, outsourcing their financing to private benefactors, and granting them too much autonomy is a recipe for disaster. http://archive.org/details/theprincipalagen1094559551 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This thesis investigates why U.S. space cooperation efforts with Latin American countries have decreased over the past three decades. This thesis also addresses the following questions: Is the reduced number of U.S.–Latin American space cooperation projects an indication of a loss of U.S. regional influence? Is there an indication of a shift in the partner of choice? If so, what are the factors alienating the U.S. and preventing the establishment of cooperative space efforts, and what can be done about them? This thesis argues that U.S.-Latin American space cooperation has decreased due to the increased availability of providers, the maturing domestic space sectors, and the committed drive toward technological independence. Latin American countries are pursuing space capabilities mainly to support socio-economic development efforts. Their specific resource constraints motivate them to pursue cooperative projects. The increasing availability of providers allows for greater flexibility, and Latin American countries chose engagements that best suit their requirements. Therefore, the smaller number of cooperative U.S.–Latin American space projects is not an indication of a loss of U.S. regional influence but instead of a competitive market with pragmatic consumer base. Thus, the United States is not being alienated but challenged to engage on equitable terms. http://archive.org/details/theuslatinameric1094558368 Captain, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

In this paper, I examined U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America, primarily during the Cold War. I sought to answer the following questions: (1) What factors influenced the behavior of lower-level U.S. officials stationed in Latin America at the time? and (2) How much policy-affecting agency did these officials have? Using primary source documentation contained in the State Department’s Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) volumes to the maximum extent possible, I examined the following case studies: Guatemala circa 1954, Costa Rica circa 1948, and lastly, present-day Bolivia. In my research and analysis, I shed light on the dynamic that existed between Washington policymakers and lower-level officials stationed in-region, mainly ambassadors. My analysis resulted in the following conclusions: (1) anti-communist Cold War hysteria clouded the judgment of lower-level officials, (2) pressure from Washington elites largely influenced the behavior of these officials, and (3) U.S. officials stationed in-region had relatively little policy-affecting agency. Ultimately, I make a case for a U.S. foreign policy apparatus that empowers lower-level officials stationed in-region. This arrangement will prove most effective in observing, analyzing, and appreciating the nuances present in foreign countries, which would result in a flexible and tailored U.S. foreign policy. http://archive.org/details/affectinguspolic1094558282 Major, United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.