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We study the connection of matter density and its tracers from the probability density function (PDF) perspective. One aspect of this connection is the conditional expectation value 〈δtracer|δm〉 when averaging both tracer and matter density over some scale. We present a new way to incorporate a Lagrangian bias expansion of this expectation value into standard frameworks for modelling the PDF of density fluctuations and counts-in-cells statistics. Using N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogues we confirm the accuracy of this expansion and compare it to the more commonly used Eulerian parametrization. For haloes hosting typical luminous red galaxies, the Lagrangian model provides a significantly better description of 〈δtracer|δm〉 at second order in perturbations. A second aspect of the matter-tracer connection is shot-noise, i.e. the scatter of tracer density around 〈δtracer|δm〉. It is well known that this noise can be significantly non-Poissonian and we validate the performance of a more general, two-parameter shot-noise model for different tracers and simulations. Both parts of our analysis are meant to pave the way for forthcoming applications to survey data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the integrated three-point shear correlation function i ζ± – a higher order statistic of the cosmic shear field – which can be directly estimated in wide-area weak lensing surveys without measuring the full three-point shear correlation function, making this a practical and complementary tool to two-point statistics for weak lensing cosmology. We define it as the one-point aperture mass statistic M ap measured at different locations on the shear field correlated with the corresponding local two-point shear correlation function ξ±. Building upon existing work on the integrated bispectrum of the weak lensing convergence field, we present a theoretical framework for computing the integrated three-point function in real space for any projected field within the flat-sky approximation and apply it to cosmic shear. Using analytical formulae for the non-linear matter power spectrum and bispectrum, we model i ζ± and validate it on N -body simulations within the uncertainties expected from the sixth year cosmic shear data of the Dark Energy Survey. We also explore the Fisher information content of i ζ± and perform a joint analysis with ξ± for two tomographic source redshift bins with realistic shape noise to analyse its power in constraining cosmological parameters. We find that the joint analysis of ξ± and i ζ± has the potential to considerably improve parameter constraints from ξ± alone, and can be particularly useful in improving the figure of merit of the dynamical dark energy equation of state parameters from cosmic shear data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pinning down the total neutrino mass and the dark energy equation of state is a key aim for upcoming galaxy surveys. Weak lensing is a unique probe of the total matter distribution whose non-Gaussian statistics can be quantified by the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of the lensing convergence. We calculate the convergence PDF on mildly nonlinear scales from first principles using large-deviation statistics, accounting for dark energy and the total neutrino mass. For the first time, we comprehensively validate the cosmology dependence of the convergence PDF model against large suites of simulated lensing maps, demonstrating its per cent level precision and accuracy. We show that fast simulation codes can provide highly accurate covariance matrices, which can be combined with the theoretical PDF model to perform forecasts and eliminate the need for relying on expensive N -body simulations. Our theoretical model allows us to perform the first forecast for the convergence PDF that varies the full set of ΛCDM parameters. Our Fisher forecasts establish that the constraining power of the convergence PDF compares favourably to the two-point correlation function for a Euclid-like survey area at a single source redshift. When combined with a cosmic microwave background prior from Planck, the PDF constrains both the neutrino mass M ν and the dark energy equation of state w 0 more strongly than the two-point correlation function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3 × 2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modelling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude (Q 1) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of Q 1 prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach |$\sim 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$| improvement in the constraint of |$S_8=\sigma _8(\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$| compared to the original DES 3 × 2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain |$S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$| for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative Q 1 prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure |$Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$| for DES Y1 only and |$Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$| for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than 2σ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the possibility to detect primordial non-Gaussianity by analysing the bulk of the probability distribution function (PDF) of late-time cosmic density fluctuations. For this purpose, we devise a new method to predict the impact of general non-Gaussian initial conditions on the late-time density PDF. At redshift z  = 1 and for a smoothing scale of 30 Mpc  h −1 our predictions agree with the high-resolution Quijote N -body simulations to |$\sim 0.2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$| precision. This is within cosmic variance of a ∼100(Gpc  h −1)3 survey volume. When restricting to this 30 Mpc  h −1 smoothing scale and to mildly non-linear densities (δ[30 Mpc  h −1] ∈ [−0.3, 0.4]) and also marginalizing over potential ignorance of the amplitude of the non-linear power spectrum an analysis of the PDF for such a survey volume can still measure the amplitude of different primordial bispectrum shapes to an accuracy of |$\Delta f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{loc}} = \pm 7.4\ ,\ \Delta f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{equi}} = \pm 22.0\ ,\ \Delta f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{ortho}} = \pm 46.0$|⁠. When pushing to smaller scales and assuming a joint analysis of the PDF with smoothing radii of 30 and 15 Mpc  h −1 (δ[15 Mpc  h −1] ∈ [−0.4, 0.5]) this improves to |$\Delta f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{loc}} = \pm 3.3\ ,\ \Delta f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{equi}} = \pm 11.0\ ,\ \Delta f_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\mathrm{ortho}} = \pm 17.0$| – even when marginalizing over the non-linear variances at both scales as two free parameters. Especially, such an analysis could simultaneously measure f NL and the amplitude and slope of the non-linear power spectrum. However, at 15 Mpc  h −1 our predictions are only accurate to |$\lesssim 0.8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$| for the considered density range. We discuss how this has to be improved in order to push to these small scales and make full use of upcoming surveys with a PDF-based analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We comprehensively analyse the cosmology dependence of counts-in-cells statistics. We focus on the shape of the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of the matter density field at mildly non-linear scales. Based on large-deviation statistics, we parametrize the cosmology dependence of the matter PDF in terms of the linear power spectrum, the growth factor, the spherical collapse dynamics, and the non-linear variance. We extend our formalism to include massive neutrinos, finding that the total matter PDF is highly sensitive to the total neutrino mass M ν and can disentangle it from the clustering amplitude σ8. Using more than a million PDFs extracted from the Quijote simulations, we determine the response of the matter PDF to changing parameters in the νΛCDM model and successfully cross-validate the theoretical model and the simulation measurements. We present the first νΛCDM Fisher forecast for the matter PDF at multiple scales and redshifts, and its combination with the matter power spectrum. We establish that the matter PDF and the matter power spectrum are highly complementary at mildly non-linear scales. The matter PDF is particularly powerful for constraining the matter density Ωm, clustering amplitude σ8 and the total neutrino mass M ν. Adding the mildly non-linear matter PDF to the mildly non-linear matter power spectrum improves constraints on Ωm by a factor of 5 and σ8 by a factor of 2 when considering the three lowest redshifts. In our joint analysis of the matter PDF and matter power spectrum at three redshifts, the total neutrino mass is constrained to better than 0.01 eV with a total volume of 6 (Gpc h−1)3. We discuss how density-split statistics can be used to translate those encouraging results for the matter PDF into realistic observables in galaxy surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computing the inverse covariance matrix (or precision matrix) of large data vectors is crucial in weak lensing (and multiprobe) analyses of the large-scale structure of the Universe. Analytically computed covariances are noise-free and hence straightforward to invert; however, the model approximations might be insufficient for the statistical precision of future cosmological data. Estimating covariances from numerical simulations improves on these approximations, but the sample covariance estimator is inherently noisy, which introduces uncertainties in the error bars on cosmological parameters and also additional scatter in their best-fitting values. For future surveys, reducing both effects to an acceptable level requires an unfeasibly large number of simulations. In this paper we describe a way to expand the precision matrix around a covariance model and show how to estimate the leading order terms of this expansion from simulations. This is especially powerful if the covariance matrix is the sum of two contributions, C = A + B, where A is well understood analytically and can be turned off in simulations (e.g. shape noise for cosmic shear) to yield a direct estimate of B. We test our method in mock experiments resembling tomographic weak lensing data vectors from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). For DES we find that 400 N-body simulations are sufficient to achieve negligible statistical uncertainties on parameter constraints. For LSST this is achieved with 2400 simulations. The standard covariance estimator would require >105 simulations to reach a similar precision. We extend our analysis to a DES multiprobe case finding a similar performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]