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The Bailongjiang River Basin is a high-risk area for debris flow in China. On 17 August 2020, a debris flow occurred in the Shuimo catchment, Wen County, which blocked the Baishui River, forming a barrier lake and causing significant casualties and property damage. In this study, remote sensing, InSAR, field surveys, and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) techniques were used to analyze the causal characteristics, material source characteristics, dynamic processes, and disaster characteristics after the debris flow. The results showed that the Shuimo catchment belongs to low-frequency debris flows, with a recurrence cycle of more than 100 years and concealed features. High vegetation coverage (72%) and a long main channel (11.49 km) increase the rainfall-triggering conditions for debris flow occurrence, making it more hidden and less noticed. The Shuimo catchment has a large drainage area of 31.26 km2, 15 tributaries, significant elevation differences of 2017 m, and favorable hydraulic conditions for debris flow. The main sources of debris flow material supply are channel erosion and slope erosion, which account for 84.4% of the total material. The collapse of landslides blocking both sides of the main channel resulted in an amplification of the debris flow scale, leading to the blockage of the Baishui River. The scale of the accumulation fan is 28 × 104 m3, and the barrier lake area is 37.4 × 104 m2. The formation mechanism can be summarized as follows: rainfall triggering → shallow landslides → slope debris flow → channel erosion → landslide damming → dam failure and increased discharge → deposition and river blockage. The results of this study provide references for remote sensing emergency investigation and analysis of similar low-frequency and concealed debris flows, as well as a scientific basis for local disaster prevention and reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debris flow can cause damage only when its discharge exceeds the drainage capacity of the prevention engineering. At present, most rainfall thresholds for debris flows mainly focus on the initiation of debris flow and do not adequately consider the magnitude and drainage measures of debris flows. These thresholds are likely to initiate numerous warnings that may not be related to hazardous processes. This study proposes a method for calculating the rainfall threshold that is related to a defined level of debris flow magnitude, over which certain damage may be caused. This method is constructed by using the transient rainfall infiltration analysis slope stability model (TRIGRS) and the fluid dynamics process simulation model (MassFlow). We first use the TRIGRS model to analyze slope stability in the study area and obtain the distribution of unstable slopes under different rainfall conditions. Afterward, the MassFlow model is employed to simulate the movement process of unstable slope units and to predict the depositional processes at the mouth of the catchment. Lastly a rainfall threshold is constructed by statistically analyzing the rainfall conditions that cause debris flows flushing out of the given drainage ditch. This method is useful to predict debris flow events of a hazardous magnitude, especially for areas with limited historical observational data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hunza Valley, in the northwestern Karakoram Mountains, North Pakistan, is a typical region with many towns and villages, and a dense population and is prone to landslides. The present study completed landslide identification, updating a comprehensive landslide inventory and analysis. First, the ground surface deformation was detected in the Hunza Valley by SBAS-InSAR from ascending and descending datasets, respectively. Then, the locations and boundaries were interpreted and delineated, and a comprehensive inventory of 118 landslides, including the 53 most recent InSAR identified active landslides and 65 landslides cited from the literature, was completed. This study firstly named all 118 landslides, considering the demand for globally intensive research and hazard mitigation. Finally, the deformation, spatial–topographic development, and distribution characteristics in the Hunza Valley scale and three large significant landslides were analyzed. Information on 72 reported landslides was used to construct an empirical power law relationship linking landslide area (AL) to volume (VL) (VL = 0.067 × AL1.351), and this formula predicted the volume of 118 landslides in this study. We discovered that the landslides from the literature, which were interpreted from optical images, had lower levels of velocity, area, elevation, and height. The SBAS-InSAR-detected active landslide was characterized by higher velocity, larger area, higher elevation, larger slope gradient, larger NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), and greater height. The melting glacier water and rainfall infiltration from cracks on the landslide's upper part may promote the action of a push from gravity on the upper part. Simultaneously, the coupling of actions from river erosion and active tectonics could have an impact on the stability of the slope toe. The up-to-date comprehensive identification and understanding of the characteristics and mechanism of landslide development in this study provide a reference for the next step in landslide disaster prevention and risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The area comprising the Langma-Baiya fault zone (LBFZ) and the Bailongjiang fault zone (BFZ) in the Western Qinling Mountains in China is characterized by intensive, frequent, multi-type landslide disasters. The spatial distribution of landslides is affected by factors, such as geological structure, landforms, climate and human activities, and the distribution of landslides in turn affects the geomorphology, ecological environment and human activities. Here, we present the results of a detailed landslide inventory of the area, which recorded a total of 2765 landslides. The landslides are divided into three categories according to relative age, area, and type of movement. Sixteen factors related to geological structure, geomorphology, materials composition and human activities were selected and four machine learning algorithms were used to model the spatial distribution of landslides. The aim was to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between the spatial distribution of landslides and the contributing factors. Based on a comparison of model accuracy and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, RandomForest (RF) (accuracy of 92%, area under the ROC of 0.97) and GradientBoosting (GB) (accuracy of 96%, area under the ROC curve of 0.97) were selected to predict the spatial distribution of unclassified landslides and classified landslides, respectively. The evaluation results reveal the following. The vegetation coverage index (NDVI) (correlation of 0.2, and the same below) and distance to road (DTR) (0.13) had the highest correlations with the distribution of unclassified landslides. NDVI (0.18) and the annual precipitation index (API) (0.14) had the highest correlations with the distribution of landslides of different ages. API (0.16), average slope (AS) (0.14) and NDVI (0.1) had the highest correlations with the landslide distribution on different scales. API (0.28) had the highest correlation with the landslide distribution based on different types of landslide movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From a geological standpoint, northern Pakistan is one of the most active and unstable areas in the world. As a consequence, many massive landslides have occurred in the area in historical times that have destroyed infrastructure, blocked the Hunza River, and damaged the Karakoram Highway repeatedly. However, despite the high frequency of large magnitude landslide events, and the consequent damages, the entire area is largely understudied, mainly due to the difficult logistics and the large distances involved. This work is aimed at applying the potential use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for landslide identification and investigation for the Hunza-Nagar Region. Sentinel-1 images covering a period of more than two years (February 2017–August 2019) were used and processed by adopting the small baseline subset (SBAS) method. The obtained deformation rate measured along the line of sight (VLOS) varies from −114 to 20 mm/year. The downslope velocity deformation rates (Vslope) range from 0 to −300 mm/year. The Vslope stability threshold for our study area was calculated to be −14 mm/year from the Vslope standard deviation. Four active landslides with Vslope exceeding 14 mm/year were recognizable and have been confirmed by field inspection. The identified landslides listed from the most active to least active are the Humarri, Mayoon, Khai, and Ghulmet landslides, respectively. VLOS exceeding 114 mm/year was observed in the Humarri landslide, which posed a threat of damming a lake on the Hispar River and was also a risk to the Humarri Village located below the landslide. The maximum mean deformation detected in the Ghulmet, and Mayoon landslide was in the order of 30 mm/year and 20 mm/year, respectively. More importantly, it was found that in places, the slope deformation time series showed a patchy correlation with precipitation and seismic events in the area. This may indicate a complex, and possibly uncoupled, relationship between the two controlling agents promoting the deformation. However, the collective impact of the two factors is evident in the form of a continuously descending deformation curve and clearly indicates the ground distortion. The results indicate a potentially critical situation related to the high deformation rates measured at the Humarri landslide. On this specific slope, conditions leading to a possible catastrophic failure cannot be ruled out and should be a priority for the application of mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological conditions along the Karakorum Highway (KKH) promote the occurrence of frequent natural disasters, which pose a serious threat to its normal operation. Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) provides a basis for analyzing and evaluating the degree of landslide susceptibility of an area. However, there has been limited analysis of actual landslide activity processes in real-time. The SBAS-InSAR (Small Baseline Subsets-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) method can fully consider the current landslide susceptibility situation and, thus, it can be used to optimize the results of LSM. In this study, we compared the results of LSM using logistic regression and Random Forest models along the KKH. Both approaches produced a classification in terms of very low, low, moderate, high, and very high landslide susceptibility. The evaluation results of the two models revealed a high susceptibility of land sliding in the Gaizi Valley and the Tashkurgan Valley. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and historical landslide verification points were used to compare the evaluation accuracy of the two models. The Area under Curve (AUC) value of the Random Forest model was 0.981, and 98.79% of the historical landslide points in the verification points fell within the range of high and very high landslide susceptibility degrees. The Random Forest evaluation results were found to be superior to those of the logistic regression and they were combined with the SBAS-InSAR results to conduct a new LSM. The results showed an increase in the landslide susceptibility degree for 2808 cells. We conclude that this optimized landslide susceptibility mapping can provide valuable decision support for disaster prevention and it also provides theoretical guidance for the maintenance and normal operation of KKH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In active orogenic belts, fault zones and fluvial erosion are the two principal factors that control the development of landslides. The Langma-Baiya fault zone (LBFZ) and the Bailongjiang fault zone (BFZ) in the Western Qinling Mountains (WQM) in China are part of an intracontinental orogenic zone, where landslides are the principal geomorphological process. It is also one of the regions with the most severe landslide disasters in China. We established a historical landslide database for the LBFZ and BFZ, based on high-precision remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation. The results indicated a total of 2764 landslides, including 1190 large landslides and 79 giant landslides. The quality of the landslide database was evaluated using the frequency-area curve distribution characteristics, and the results showed that the small-medium size landslides are underrepresented in the database, likely due to the influence of factors such as surface erosion, vegetation coverage, and human activities. Therefore, we focused on the spatial distribution and formation mechanism of large and giant landslides. Landslides are unevenly distributed in space; specifically, our field investigation and statistical analysis of swath profiles revealed that landslides are aggregated within tectonic zones, in areas of weak rock masses, and on the banks of rivers. Finally, based on the combination of the various factors controlling landslides, we divided the study area into three subregions, for which conceptual models were established. These models highlight the importance of the distance of the fault zone to a river, together with the degree of fluvial erosion, in controlling the development of landslides. The combined effects of fluvial erosion, geological structures, and the low-grade metamorphic rocks exposed along fault zones are major controls on the development of large landslides, and the local structural characteristics of thrust-strike-slip fault zones control the type of landslides. • Inventory and distribution characteristics of landslides in fault zones in the Western Qinling Mountains of China. • Conceptual models for landslide development under the coupled influences of the fault zone and fluvial erosion. • Statistical application of swath profiles in integrating tectonics, landforms, and landslide distribution. • Local structural characteristics of the fault zones control the spatial distribution of different types of landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NW-SE-striking fault zone in the Bailong River Basin in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have the most densely distributed, large complex landslides in China. However, the failure of large complex landslides along the fault zone and the causes of their complex geomorphic characteristics are unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the fault zone and the spatial distribution, direction of movement, and geomorphic characteristics of large landslides. We inventoried 29 large landslides in the middle reaches of the Bailong River and described their characteristics. Statistical analysis revealed differences in the spatial relationship between the faults and landslides of different scales. Almost all of the landslide bodies with an area > 1 km2 are distributed on the faults; in addition, the strike of the faults was found to constrain the direction of movement of the landslides to the WNW-ESE direction. Statistical results show that the cross sections of landslides in the study area are asymmetric arc, corresponding to which there are significant differences in the geomorphological characteristics of the north and south sides of landslides. The geometric characteristics, physical properties (i.e., material weakness) of the fault zone and rapid uplift of the hanging wall were responsible for the asymmetric shape of landslide cross sections and the geomorphic difference. We present a conceptual model based on the relationship between the fault zone and landslides, which facilitates an improved understanding of the relationship between the fault zone and landslide evolution. • Movement direction of landslides is symmetrically distributed along fault zones. • The landslides have geomorphic differences between the north and south sides of the landslide body. • Fault zone control the asymmetric shape of landslide cross sections and the geomorphic features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]