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Abstract: The emerald ash borer (EAB) has killed millions of ash trees in Michigan and at least fourteen other states since its first detection near its introduction point in metropolitan Detroit in 2002. Despite overstory ash mortality near 100% in many areas, ash seedling and saplings remain unaffected and provide the potential for ash re-establishment into the canopy of deciduous forests of the region. We examined the potential for ash re-establishment in areas of heavy mortality by measuring the status and change of ash regeneration at 45 sites across southeastern Lower Michigan in 2007 and 2009. Ash regeneration was found to be abundant in all forest types, particularly in the smallest height classes, though it was more abundant in ash species of upland forests compared to those of lowland forests. New seedlings 1–2 years old were less common than other regeneration size classes, and declined substantially between 2007 and 2009, suggesting a depletion of the ash seed bank in these forests. Regeneration density was not explained well by the presence of overstory ash prior to EAB introduction, suggesting that competitive interaction with other tree species in higher canopy strata is an important driver of ash regeneration density. Regeneration is sufficient to replenish overstory ash to pre-EAB levels in upland forests, though ecological changes caused by overstory ash mortality in lowland areas may affect local hydrology in a way that reduces opportunities for tree regeneration. Despite abundant ash regeneration, it remains unclear whether ash will recover to the overstory of forests in southeastern Michigan because of uncertainties in the future dynamics of EAB in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A probabilistic spatial model was created based on empirical data to examine the influence of different fire regimes on stand structure of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests across a >500,000-ha landscape in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. We asked how variation in the frequency of large fire events affects (1) the mean and annual variability of age and tree density (defined by post-fire sapling density and subsequent stand density) of lodgepole pine stands and (2) the spatial pattern of stand age and density across the landscape. The model incorporates spatial and temporal variation in fire and serotiny in predicting postfire sapling densities of lodgepole pine. Empirical self-thinning and in-filling curves alter initital postfire sapling densities over decades to centuries. In response to a six-fold increase in the probability of large fires (0.003 to 0.018 year-1), mean stand age declined from 291 to 121 years. Mean stand density did not increase appreciably at high elevations (1,029 to 1,249 stems ha-1) where serotiny was low and postfire sapling density was relatively low (1,252 to 2,203 stems ha-1). At low elevations, where prefire serotiny and postfire lodgepole pine density are high, mean stand densities increased from 2,807 to 7,664 stems ha-1. Spatially, the patterns of stand age became more simplified across the landscape, yet patterns of stand density became more complex. In response to more frequent stand replacing fires, very high annual variability in postfire sapling density is expected, with higher means and greater variation in stand density across lodgepole pine landscapes, especially in the few decades following large fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]