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Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science. Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food-energy-environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum, giant miscanthus Miscanthus ? giganteus, and hybrid poplar Populus ? sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (-4% to -39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (>18 Mg·ha-1·yr-1) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands, landscape yield decreased by 27%. The removal of lands with high development probability from crop production resulted in losses of up to 670 000 Mg/yr (40%). This study demonstrated that tradeoffs among bioenergy production, crop production, and exurban expansion in a mountainous changing rural landscape vary spatially with climate change over time. If markets develop, bioenergy crops could potentially counter losses of agricultural land to development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract: Forests growing on former agricultural land often have reduced frequencies of many native forest herbs compared with forests that were never cleared for agriculture. A leading explanation for this pattern is that many forest herbs are dispersal limited, but environmental conditions may also hinder colonization. We examined the response of six forest herb taxa (Arisaema triphyllum, Cimicifuga racemosa, Disporum lanuginosum, Osmorhiza spp., Polygonatum spp., and Prenanthes altissima) to nitrogen (N) fertilization in forests with and without an agricultural history to investigate how N availability affects plant performance. The study was conducted in the southern Appalachian Mountains in western North Carolina, USA. There was a significant interaction between land-use history and N treatment for several species. In A. triphyllum and Osmorhiza spp., N fertilization increased aboveground biomass or leaf area more in the post-agriculture site than in the reference site. However, in the reference site, N fertilization depressed aboveground biomass or leaf area in the same taxa, as well as in C. racemosa. The foliar N concentration of these three taxa was elevated in fertilized plots regardless of land-use history, and there was no indication that the light environment differed among plots. These results suggest that some plants growing in post-agricultural stands may be N limited, whereas undisturbed stands in this region appear to be approaching N saturation. Thus, environmental conditions, and particularly N availability, may be an obstacle to the restoration of forest herb communities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We compared long-term change in two lake districts, one in a forested rural setting and the other in an urbanizing agricultural region, using lakes as sentinel ecosystems. Human population growth and land-use change are important drivers of ecosystem change in both regions. Biotic changes such as habitat loss, species invasions, and poorer fishing were prevalent in the rural region, and lake hydrology and biogeochemistry responded to climate trends and landscape position. Similar biotic changes occurred in the urbanizing agricultural region, where human-caused changes in hydrology and biogeochemistry had conspicuous effects. Feedbacks among ecosystem dynamics, human uses, economics, social dynamics, and policy and practice are fundamental to understanding change in these lake districts. Sustained support for interdisciplinary collaboration is essential to build understanding of regional change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past land use has contributed to variability in the distribution of herbaceous species by reducing plant abundance and altering species' chances of recolonizing suitable habitat. Land use may also influence plant heterogeneity by changing environmental conditions within stands. We compared the variability of understory herb abundance in southern Appalachian forests with different land-use histories to examine how past land use influenced plant heterogeneity. The cover of eleven focal species or genera was estimated and mineral soil concentrations were determined during 2001 and 2002 in eight stands that were farmed, logged, or had no disturbance history (reference) in western North Carolina. Analysis of the coefficients of variation revealed that the abundance of understory plants was more heterogeneous in disturbed stands compared with reference stands. However, when nutrient availability differences were accounted for by detrending the plant cover data, understory variability within stands declined, and no differences between disturbed and reference stands could be distinguished. This finding suggests that nutrient availability has important effects on plant heterogeneity, which depend on past land use. Species dispersal, seed size, and phenology also explained variability in the spatial heterogeneity of plants, but generally only before soil nutrient differences were statistically controlled. In addition to demonstrating that past land use has long-term effects on plant heterogeneity, these results indicate that soil nutrients may play different roles in determining vegetation patterns in historically altered and unaltered forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape ecology focuses on the reciprocal interactions between spatial pattern and ecological processes, and it is well integrated with ecology. The field has grown rapidly over the past 15 years. The persistent influence of land-use history and natural disturbance on contemporary ecosystems has become apparent. Development of pattern metrics has largely stabilized, and they are widely used to relate landscape pattern to ecological responses. Analyses conducted at multiple scales have demonstrated the importance of landscape pattern for many taxa, and spatially mediated interspecific interactions are receiving increased attention. Disturbance remains prominent in landscape studies, and current research is addressing disturbance interactions. Integration of ecosystem and landscape ecology remains challenging but should enhance understanding of landscape function. Landscape ecology should continue to refine knowledge of when spatial heterogeneity is fundamentally important, rigorously test the generality of its concepts, and develop a more mechanistic understanding of the relationships between pattern and process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on effects of land-cover change on spatial pattern of forest communities in the Southern Appalachian Mountains; Susceptibiltiy of forest communities to loss and fragmentation due to human land use; Forest communities, which are most likely to be affected by projected future land cover changes; Impact of the projected land-cover changes, on ongoing reforestation in less populated regions.

Lakeshore development in Vilas County, northern Wisconsin (USA) is heterogeneous, ranging from lakes that are surrounded by homes and commercial establishments to lakes that have no buildings on their shorelines. Development in this recreational area has increased, and since the 1960s over half of new homes have been built on the lakeshore. We examined building density around lakes in relationship to 11 variables, including in-lake, shoreline, and social characteristics. Buildings in many parts of northern Wisconsin tend to be concentrated around shorelines; in Vilas County 61% of all medium-sized buildings (our proxy for residential development) on private land were ≤100 m of a lake. The probability of development on a lake was largely related to lake surface area, with larger, more accessible lakes showing a higher probability of development. Building density along shorelines varied with travel cost, lake surface area, presence of wetlands, and extent of public land ownership. Building density was greater on larger, more accessible lakes that were surrounded by forest (as opposed to wetlands) and public lands. Gaining a more precise understanding of human settlement patterns can help direct planning and resource protection efforts to lakes most likely to experience future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on the origin of the contemporary wildfires in the Upper Midwest of the U.S. states including Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin between 1985 and 1995 using a wide array of satellite and ground-based data. A combination of factors such as abiotic, biotic and human are found to be related to the spatial distribution of wildfires. Fire occurrences and modern fire pattern are noted to be influenced by the settlement of human as well as the using of land.

Discusses the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in land management. Consideration of both species-habitat relationships and the arrangement of habitats in space and time; Principles of resource management and landscape ecology.

Landscapes result from the interaction between nature and society. To understand current landscapes, it is essential to disentangle this interaction; to accomplish this, an historical approach is necessary.Here we focus on the interaction between humans and lakes during thelast century in two sites in Wisconsin, USA, a state where lakes, inexcess of 10,000, have played an important role in the evolution of the landscapes they belong to. We draw contrasts between the two localities, which are set in landscapes that differ in their physiographic setting, environmental history, and current structure. One, in northern Wisconsin, is a forested recreational lake district; the other, in southern Wisconsin, is dominated by agricultural uses and urban and suburban development. We contend that a common development in both localities has been the increase in the value that society attaches to lakes. As a consequence, lakes are playing a bigger role in the evolution of the terrestrial landscapes surrounding them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examine the implications of changing forest demography and its drivers for both future forest management and forecasting impacts of global climate forcing. Topics discussed include estimates of the terrestrial carbon sink and remote sensing data indicate that tree growth and potentially recruitment may have increased globally; analysis of global land-use change and disturbance datasets and earth system models continue to improve to simulate forest dynamics.