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Kunming city is located in the middle of Yunnan Province. Due to large-scale groundwater exploitation and urban development in recent years, this area has been affected by surface subsidence. In this paper, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data are used to monitor the surface subsidence in Kunming city area for better analysis and understanding. The study used data of Sentinel-1A from 2018 to 2020 with atmospheric correction based on GACOS to calculate the average annual subsidence rate in Kunming city area, and the results show that the maximum subsidence rate is 48 mm/year. The subsidence obtained by InSAR is compared with the vertical deformation information obtained by eight GNSS stations in continuous operation in the study area. The subsidence rate trend show by the two methods is consistent, which further verifies the validity of InSAR data to reflect the local deformation. Experimental results shown that the eastern and northeastern Dianchi lake areas were affected by underground resources mining, and the induced surface subsidence characteristics were obvious, with the surface subsidence rate reachde 48 mm/year and 37 mm/year respectively. The Kunyang Phosphate Mine also had different degrees of mining subsidence disaster, with the maximum subsidence rate reached 36 mm/year. The subsidence rate of InSAR and GNSS has the same trend on the whole. However, GNSS sites are generally located in stable areas, the settlement amount obtained in the same time period is somewhat different from that of InSAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time-series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (TS-InSAR) is often affected by tropospheric artifacts caused by temporal and spatial variability in the atmospheric refractive index. Conventional temporal and spatial filtering cannot effectively distinguish topography-related stratified delays, leading to biased estimates of the deformation phases. Here, we propose a TS-InSAR atmospheric delay correction method based on ERA-5; the robustness and accuracy of ERA-5 data under the influence of different atmospheric delays were explored. Notably, (1) wet delay was the main factor affecting tropospheric delay within the interferogram; the higher spatial and temporal resolution of ERA-5 can capture the wet delay signal better than MERRA-2. (2) The proposed method can mitigate the atmospheric delay component in the interferogram; the average standard deviation (STD) reduction for the Radarsat-2 and Sentinel-1A interferograms were 19.68 and 14.75%, respectively. (3) Compared to the empirical linear model, the correlation between the stratified delays estimated by the two methods reached 0.73. We applied this method for the first time to a ground subsidence study in the Yuxi Basin and successfully detected three subsidence centers. We analyzed and discussed ground deformation causes based on rainfall and fault zones. Finally, we verified the accuracy of the proposed method by using leveling monitoring data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing neural network model in urban land-subsidence prediction is over-reliant on historical subsidence data. It cannot accurately capture or predict the fluctuation in the sequence deformation, while the improper selection of training samples directly affects its final prediction accuracy for large-scale urban land subsidence. In response to the shortcomings of previous urban land-subsidence predictions, a subsidence prediction method based on a neural network algorithm was constructed in this study, from a multi-factorial perspective. Furthermore, the scientific selection of a large range of training samples was controlled using a K-shape clustering algorithm in order to produce this high-precision urban land subsidence prediction method. Specifically, the main urban area of Kunming city was taken as the research object, LiCSBAS technology was adopted to obtain the information on the land-subsidence deformation in the main urban area of Kunming city from 2018–2021, and the relationship between the land subsidence and its influencing factors was revealed through a grey correlation analysis. Hydrogeology, geological structure, fault, groundwater, high-speed railways, and high-rise buildings were selected as the influencing factors. Reliable subsidence training samples were obtained by using the time-series clustering K-shape algorithm. Particle swarm optimization–back propagation (PSO-BP) was constructed from a multi-factorial perspective. Additionally, after the neural network algorithm was employed to predict the urban land subsidence, the fluctuation in the urban land-subsidence sequence deformation was predicted with the LSTM neural network from a multi-factorial perspective. Finally, the large-scale urban land-subsidence prediction was performed. The results demonstrate that the maximum subsidence rate in the main urban area of Kunming reached −30.591 mm ⋅ a − 1 between 2018 and 2021. Moreover, there were four main significant subsidence areas in the whole region, with uneven distribution characteristics along Dianchi: within the range of 200–600 m from large commercial areas and high-rise buildings, within the range of 400–1200 m from the under-construction subway, and within the annual average. The land subsidence tended to occur within the range of 109–117 mm of annual average rainfall. Furthermore, the development of faults destroys the stability of the soil structure and further aggravates the land subsidence. Hydrogeology, geological structure, and groundwater also influence the land subsidence in the main urban area of Kunming. The reliability of the training sample selection can be improved by clustering the subsidence data with the K-shape algorithm, and the constructed multi-factorial PSO-BP method can effectively predict the subsidence rate with a mean squared error (MSE) of 4.820 mm. The prediction accuracy was slightly improved compared to the non-clustered prediction. We used the constructed multi-factorial long short-term memory (LSTM) model to predict the next ten periods of any time-series subsidence data in the three types of cluster data (Cluster 1, Cluster 2, and Cluster 3). The root mean square errors (RMSE) were 0.445, 1.475, and 1.468 mm; the absolute error ranges were 0.007–1.030, 0–3.001, and 0.401–3.679 mm; the errors (mean absolute error, MAE) were 0.319, 1.214, and 1.167 mm, respectively. Their prediction accuracy was significantly improved, and the predictions met the measurement specifications. Overall, the prediction method proposed from the multi-factorial perspective improves large-scale, high-accuracy urban land-subsidence prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]