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Objectives of this study were to investigate changes in predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) of yields from evaluations based on first records to evaluations based on first and later records of daughters and determine whether these changes are heritable. Data were USDA sire evaluations of July 1989 through May 2000 on Holstein bulls in standard progeny testing programs. Changes in PTA for milk, fat, and protein from evaluations based on first records of daughters to evaluations on first and second were obtained on 2001 bulls. These were divided into two sets: subset 1 (n = 889) included bulls first evaluated before 1995 and subset 2 (n = 1112) included bulls first evaluated in 1995 and later. Changes in PTA from first-record evaluation to most recent evaluation (May 2000) were obtained on 2524 bulls first evaluated in 1995 or later. Mean changes in PTA for bulls first evaluated in 1995 and later were smaller than mean changes for bulls evaluated earlier but standard deviations were similar. Regressions of changes in PTA on changes in parent average showed that a change of 1.0 kg in parent average resulted in 1.1 to 1.2 kg change in PTA. Heritabilities estimated with animal model ranged from 0.14 to 0.23 for changes from first-record evaluation to evaluation on first and second, and 0.27 to 0.35 for changes from first-record evaluation to most recent evaluation. Heritabilities of this magnitude allow for identifying bulls that decrease in PTA.

The main objective of this study was to estimate genetic trends for 3.7% FCM, fat yield, days open, and predicted body weight after calving in six experimental dairy herds owned by the State Farm Division of the North Carolina Department of Agriculture. Body weights were predicted from heart girths measured at or before the first test day after calving. Data analyzed were 23,052 records from 8575 cows, daughters of 681 bulls. Heritabilities and breeding values were estimated using the multiple-trait, derivative-free REML programs and a single-trait repeatability model. Breeding values of cows were averaged by and regressed on birth year to estimate genetic trends. Genetic correlations between traits were estimated by correlating breeding values. Estimates of heritability were 0.25 for 3.7% FCM, 0.28 for fat yield, 0.03 for days open, and 0.17 for predicted body weight. Unfavorable genetic relationships were found between yields and days open and between yields and body weight. Genetically, cows that were heavier after calving produced less milk and fat but conceived earlier than smaller cows. Genetic changes in yields and days open were greater for cows born after 1970, but the greatest genetic changes were after 1980 (FCM, 94.7 kg/yr; fat yield, 3.46 kg/yr; days open, 1.1 d/yr). Breeding values for body weight increased for cows born from 1950 to 1970, decreased until 1980, and increased for later parities. The results of our study suggest that AI organizations may need to include fertility traits in progeny testing and relax the emphasis on increased body weight.

Three Holstein lines, were compared, based on different methods of sire selection, for genetic change in 3.7% FCM, fat yield, days open, and predicted body weight after calving. The three lines were 1) evaluated sires selected only for 3.7% FCM (milk line), 2) evaluated sires selected on an index that included 3.7% FCM and type traits (index line), and 3) young bulls selected on pedigree for 3.7% FCM (young line). Cows from these lines were born in 1971 through 1993 in five experimental herds owned by the State Farm Division of North Carolina Department of Agriculture. Breeding values of cows in each line computed with a repeatability model were averaged by and regressed on birth year to estimate genetic change. Genetic gains in 3.7% FCM were 81 kg/yr for the milk line, 61 kg/yr for the line selected on index, and 68 kg/yr for the young sire line. Estimates of genetic gain in fat yield were 2.99, 2.16, and 2.54 kg/ yr in the three lines, respectively. Genetic gains in 3.7% FCM and fat yield in the milk line were significantly different from the index and young sire lines, but the index and young sire lines were not significantly different. Estimates of genetic change in days open were 0.71, 0.57, and 0.63 d/yr in the milk, index, and young sire lines, respectively. These estimates were not significantly different. Average breeding values for body weight decreased for births from 1971 to 1981 then rapidly increased for later births in all lines.