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Brain drain--the movement of high school and college graduates out of state for employment--is a concern for state policymakers. This study focuses on brain drain of students who graduate from high school in Maryland. Using data from the Maryland Longitudinal Data System and applying propensity score matching to control for differences between the groups, we evaluated the degree to which brain drain exists in Maryland, and which students are likely to contribute to brain drain. Findings indicate that brain drain does exist in this state: students who graduated from a Maryland high school and who attended college out of state were less likely to return to Maryland to join the workforce compared to students who remained in state for college. Additionally, higher-achieving students were more likely to be lost to brain drain.

The science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) workforce, and therefore STEM education, has become increasingly central to the U.S. economic growth and competitiveness over the past five decades. Nationally, the number of STEM workforce positions and the number of STEM postsecondary graduates have increased over time, but there is controversy in the research literature about whether there is a shortage of STEM workers to fill open STEM positions. Some research points to a STEM worker shortage, whereas other research suggests a possible disconnect between the preparation of STEM workers and the types of STEM jobs available. A second issue of note in the research literature is the under-representation of women and minorities in STEM educational programs and the workforce. More complex examinations of the STEM postsecondary graduate production and the STEM workforce are needed to formulate better understandings and solutions. Using data from the Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS), students who earned postsecondary degrees in STEM fields were followed into the workforce to examine their wages, industry in which they were employed, and retention in the Maryland workforce. Overall, the number of STEM postsecondary degrees earned increased over time. STEM bachelor's, associate, and master's degrees had the most pronounced increase across the years examined (2008-2009 through 2012-2013). STEM postsecondary degree earners were predominantly male, white, and non-Hispanic. For all postsecondary degree levels, less than 50% of degree earners received wages in Maryland for four quarters in the first calendar year following graduation. For the degree earners who were found to be receiving wages in four quarters in the first calendar year following graduation, STEM associate degree earners earned the lowest median four quarter wages, followed by STEM certificate earners, and STEM bachelor's degree earners. STEM master's and STEM doctorate degree earners earned the highest four quarter wages in the first calendar year following graduation. This report also includes information on the distribution of four quarter wages in the first calendar year after graduation for Maryland STEM degree earners by program area and the top 3 industries employing Maryland STEM degree earners for four quarters in the first calendar year after graduation. Retaining workers in the Maryland workforce is important for the State's economic development and prosperity. The percentage of Maryland STEM degree earners who worked four quarters in the first calendar year after graduation who were retained in the workforce after five years post-graduation varied by the degree earned. For the STEM bachelor's and master's degree levels, students who resided in-state prior to enrolling in a Maryland postsecondary institution were retained in the Maryland workforce at higher rates than students who resided out-of-state prior to enrolling in a Maryland postsecondary institution. This report also includes information on the median four quarter wages of the workers retained over time. This report focuses on students earning postsecondary degrees in the fields of science, technology, engineering or mathematics (STEM) who apply their acquired knowledge and skills to the workforce. The STEM workforce, and therefore STEM education, has become increasingly central to the U.S. economic growth and competitiveness over the past five decades. For example, between 1950 and 2000 the STEM workforce exploded from 200,000 to 4.8 million jobs, and between 2004 and 2014 it was estimated that STEM jobs increased by another 26% (Hoffman, Starobin, Laanan, & Rivera, 2010; Langdon, McKittrick, Beede, Kahn, & Doms, 2011). The current estimate of STEM jobs is at 7.6 million, which is estimated to represent 4 to 5 percent of the U.S. workforce (Salzman, 2013). The number of postsecondary students earning degrees has also increased steadily with 17% of current U.S. graduates earning degrees in STEM disciplines, and despite some concerns expressed to the contrary, more students are taking science and math courses and doing better in them than ever before (Cannady, Greenwald, & Harris, 2014). However, recent research ranked U.S. 15 years olds as 28th in the world in math literacy and 24th in science literacy while 24 years olds ranked 20th in the world in having earned postsecondary degrees in science or engineering (Kuenzi, 2008). In this report we briefly review some of the ongoing questions and concerns about STEM education and the workforce, including the question of whether there is a shortage of STEM graduates emerging from our postsecondary institutions in order to fill the positions needed to keep the U.S. competitive in the world economy. We also briefly review the literature on the persistent underrepresentation of female and racial and ethnic minority students and workers in STEM fields. We then present an extensive look at the data currently available in the MLDS with respect to STEM postsecondary degree earners across Maryland and their workforce outcomes. The outcomes examined include working in the Maryland workforce, the four quarter wages of students found in the workforce, and the retention of workers in the workforce. The number of Maryland STEM postsecondary degree earners increased over time between academic years 2008-2009 and 2012-2013. Maryland STEM postsecondary degree earners were predominantly male, white, and not Hispanic. Additionally, Maryland STEM postsecondary degree earners were predominantly in-state residents prior to enrolling in Maryland postsecondary education, with the exception of Maryland STEM doctorate degree earners who were predominantly out-of-state residents prior to enrolling in Maryland postsecondary education. For each STEM postsecondary degree level, less than half of degree earners were employed for four quarters in the Maryland workforce in the calendar year following graduation. For each STEM degree level examined, the four quarter wages in the calendar year following graduation remained relatively stable across years. However, wages varied greatly for each degree level within a year. Of the STEM postsecondary degree earners who were employed for four quarters in the Maryland workforce in the calendar year following graduation, retention in the workforce after five years ranged from 52%-78%, depending on the degree level earned. A number of future directions for research on Maryland STEM postsecondary graduates and the workforce are of interest. First, with additional years of longitudinal data, data from the Maryland Longitudinal Data System (MLDS) could be used to follow students from high school to postsecondary education and into the workforce. This research could offer information about the associations between high school attendance, coursework, and assessment scores and postsecondary STEM graduation. Examination of high school data can also begin to offer some information about the emergence of STEM disparities by gender, race, and ethnicity. These disparities likely arise prior to postsecondary entry, and additional years of longitudinal data will enable the examination of this long-term trend. Second, with expanded data collections from partner agencies, data from the MLDS could be used to examine high school and postsecondary education STEM course taking patterns. For example, it may be interesting to examine whether passing advanced placement STEM courses in high school is associated with increased likelihood of enrolling in a STEM program area in postsecondary education. With new course taking information collected by the Maryland Higher Education Commission (MHEC), it will be possible to examine whether taking particular STEM courses in postsecondary education is associated with increased likelihood of receiving a postsecondary degree in STEM and/or being employed in a STEM industry. Third, with the expansion in the number of longitudinal years of data available and the improved data collections from partner agencies, data from the MLDS could be used to run multivariate predictive models examining STEM postsecondary education. For example, data could be used to predict which students are likely to enroll in and graduate from postsecondary STEM program areas and which postsecondary STEM graduates are likely to be employed in a STEM industry in Maryland. This type of predictive modeling can offer valuable information to target practice and policy aimed at improving STEM postsecondary education. The following tables are appended: (1) Distribution of Four Quarter Wages in the First Calendar Year after Graduation for Maryland STEM Certificate and Associate Degree Earners by Program Area, 2008-09 to 2012-13; (2) Distribution of Four Quarter Wages in the First Calendar Year after Graduation for Maryland STEM Bachelor's and Master's Degree Earners by Program Area, 2008-09 to 2012-13; and (3) Distribution of Four Quarter Wages in the First Calendar Year after Graduation for Maryland STEM Doctorate Degree Earners by Program Area, 2008-09 to 2012-13.