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Correctional education is a prevalent form of rehabilitation programming for prisoners in the United States. There is limited evidence, however, about the labor market returns to credentials received while incarcerated. Using incarceration, educational, and labor market data in Washington State, we study the labor market returns to GEDs and short-term vocational certificates earned in prison. We identify the returns to credentials by a difference-indifferences design that compares changes in earnings and employment for incarcerated persons who earn a credential to those who enroll in a program but fail to complete a GED or certificate. We estimate that GEDs increase post-incarceration earnings by about $450 per quarter and that vocational certificates increase earnings by about $250 per quarter. Degree completers have higher hourly wages, are more likely to be employed, and work more hours following release. For vocational programs, earnings increases are driven by certificates in construction and manufacturing. [The research presented presented in this report uses confidential data from the Education Research and Data Center (ERDC) located within the Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM).]

We provide the first causal evidence of the returns to maternal educational curricula on offspring's health at birth. Educational programs that aim to deliver more general knowledge may potentially improve women's earning potential and maternal prenatal investment by increasing the portability of skills across occupations and improving women's ability to make informed decisions about fertility options and health behavior. We study the impacts of a comprehensive educational reform that postponed students' curriculum choices and integrated more general education into the high school system on infant health outcomes. Using a dose-response difference-in-differences (DiD) model research design applied to linked population registries, we find that the reform led to a significant reduction in the incidence of very low birth weight (less than 1,500 grams) and very preterm birth (less than 33 gestation weeks). Overall, the reform's positive effects on infant health at birth seem to be driven by increased mothers' labor market opportunities and better family planning, rather than increased ability to avoid risky behaviours or increased women's earnings via different occupational choices or assortative mating. [This report received additional funding from Fundación Ramón Areces and the Spanish National Research Plan 2017-2020.]

While the Pell Grant covers a substantial proportion of college tuition for low-income students, it has covered only two full-time semesters per year and has not included any support for summer courses through most of its history. As research has shown that continuous enrollment throughout the year increases college persistence and completion, the summer Pell (SP) program was added during the summer of 2009 and allowed eligible low-income students to receive an additional grant for summer tuition and eligible costs. The SP was eliminated in 2011 and then restored in 2017. Using administrative data on community college students in New York City, our difference-indifferences analysis results from both periods show that SP-eligible students had a higher retention rate in the fall of the second year, had higher associate and bachelor's degree attainment rates, and had higher earnings gains up to nine years from college entry compared to SP-ineligible students. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the SP benefits were driven by Black students and older students.

This study examines the emerging relationship between microcredentials and qualification systems. Information gathered through an online survey among European VET providers, national authorities, employee and employer organisations was complemented by in-depth country case studies and interviews with Cedefop's ReferNet network. Questions of whether and how microcredentials should be related to established qualification systems are at an early stage of consideration in most countries; the focus is on better defining and standardising their role within national qualifications systems. Existing trends towards modularisation and the recognition of prior learning provide potential avenues for realising the benefits of microcredentials in terms of flexibility and responsiveness, while also ensuring their quality for learners and employers. There is still significant debate over how to deal with microcredentials, and how to avoid potential negative effects, such as encouraging a shift away from holistic education towards short-duration learning based around reduced skill sets. Microcredentials are a complex phenomenon, particularly with regard to their relationship to qualifications. In recent years, there has been an acceleration in the availability and use of microcredentials in the labour market, raising questions about their relationship to VET and to qualification systems. The proliferation of microcredentials of different types across various sectors, occupations, education sectors and levels and countries, along with variations between countries in the nature of qualification systems -- which are undergoing change -- make this a complex landscape to research and analyse. To date there has been a lack of data at EU level informing decision-making in this area. This report aims to be a first step towards filling some key gaps in the knowledge around these topics, addressing three main research questions.

This paper introduces a new measure of the labor markets served by colleges and universities across the United States. About 50 percent of recent college graduates are living and working in the metro area nearest the institution they attended, with this figure climbing to 67 percent in-state. The geographic dispersion of alumni is more than twice as great for highly selective 4-year institutions as for 2-year institutions. However, more than one-quarter of 2-year institutions disperse alumni more diversely than the average public 4-year institution. In one application of these data, we find that the average strength of the labor market to which a college sends its graduates predicts college-specific intergenerational economic mobility. In a second application, we quantify the extent of "brain drain" across areas and illustrate the importance of considering migration patterns of college graduates when estimating the social return on public investment in higher education.

'Transforming the future' can have different connotations in different contexts, but here the author focuses on the way in which the vocational education and training (VET) sector is adapting, anticipating and activating change in response to future skill demands. This discussion paper explores how the sector assists learners to skill, upskill and reskill, which in turn actively contributes to the Australian economy. Without a doubt, the past few years have been both difficult and unpredictable for many, with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and other natural disasters such as bushfires and floods. This paper therefore also considers how the VET system has been able to adapt to these unforeseen events and what can be learnt from these responses and adapted for the future.

This paper summarises the exploratory quantitative analysis undertaken to investigate how vocational education and training (VET) students cluster and segment in the Australian VET market. This analysis is outlined in three sections. The first section focuses on 'clustering' as a technique for grouping data and the three clustering algorithms used. These are then discussed in more detail to provide some insights into how they operate. Their specific data requirements, along with their strengths and weaknesses, are also considered. In next section the outputs of the clustering approaches are considered. The resultant clusters are examined to better understand them, and meaningfully label and group them into segments. The final section returns to the raw data. This step was necessary to further explore (in this case, only some of) the identified market segments. Three key market segments are explored: students in targeted English programs; students in social inclusion programs; and migrant students.

Calls are intensifying for workforce reskilling and a re-engineering of education and training to meet the demands of the future. Current policy in England focuses on technical, digital and green economy skills, underpinned by strong literacy and numeracy and a knowledge-rich school curriculum. National Foundation for Educational Research's Nuffield-funded research study, "The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow's workforce" investigates: (1) which essential employment skills will be most needed in 2035; (2) what will their likely supply be and where will the gaps be; (3) which occupations and workers are most at risk of not having these skills; (4) which skills will affected workers need to develop to transition into new employment opportunities; and (5) the role of educators and employers in helping to prepare young people and workers for the future labour market. This first report, a review drawing on a wide-ranging and growing evidence base, sets the scene for the wider research study by bringing together what the literature suggests about: (1) what the world of work will look like in 2035; and (2) which essential employment skills will be in demand and how what should be done to prepare.

This study examines the role of microcredentials in supporting learning for employment. The study collected information through an online survey among mostly European VET providers, national authorities, employee and employer organisations, in-depth country case studies and interviews, as well as Cedefop's ReferNet network. While the topic has gained in importance in the context of higher education, focusing on vocational education and training does justice to the complexity of microcredentials in education, training and learning for the European labour market. Results show that microcredentials have only recently become prominent in Europe-wide policy-level debates, despite the existence for many decades of short courses and credentials that support labour-market-related education and training. Although there is uncertainty linked to the naming and function of microcredentials, clear benefits with regards to their flexibility and responsiveness to labour market needs can be observed. The current report focuses on and explores the take-up, characteristics and functions of microcredentials in European labour-market-related education, training and learning. The mapping exercise helps to identify the main characteristics of microcredentials as currently emerging in the context of VET and reskilling and upskilling initiatives.

There continues to be widespread anxiety about the future of work. I recently proposed a labor studies perspective on how to understand and meet undeniable challenges. This follow-up paper explores the implications of my analysis for the contemporary American academy, reflecting on how labor studies can help enlist public research universities in support of building a human-centered world of work. American universities have long been intricate bundles of contradictions, but recent trends have left them at a crossroads: Will they be able to reform and connect with a progressive reading of the original land-grant vision to support a future in the interest of workers? Or will their practices further drift away from a public-serving mission as they succumb to neoliberal expectations? This paper contends that the three constitutive features of labor studies--its focus on people's struggles, interdisciplinarity, and upholding workers' rights--illuminate crucial steps for realizing much-needed innovations in support of revaluing both work and workers.

We use statewide administrative data from Missouri to document the prevalence of Industry Recognized Credential (IRC) programs in public high schools and understand the characteristics of students who complete IRCs. We show that 9 percent of Missouri students complete an IRC during their senior year of high school. IRC completers have lower achievement and are more likely to be disadvantaged along several measurable dimensions relative to their peers who complete analog college-ready programs, on average. Noting these average relationships, there is substantial heterogeneity among individual IRCs in terms of the types of students served: some IRCs attract students with high test scores who mostly go on to attend college, whereas others serve low-scoring students who mostly forego college. There is strong gender segregation across individual IRCs that aligns with gender segregation across occupations in the labor market.

This research paper is one in a series produced as part of the Cedefop project The changing nature and role of VET (2016-18). The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of how CVET is conceptualised in various international level policy documents and how it is referred to across countries. It discusses national conceptions of CVET, the providers, participation by IVET graduates in non-formal education and training (NFE), and participation of adults in VET education institutions in European Union Member States, Iceland and Norway. The paper describes how the provision of CVET by different types of provider has changed over the past two decades, discussing the main drivers of this change and speculating about possible future trends. One of the main findings is that there are many dominant conceptions of CVET across Europe and the use of this term is not consistent, sometimes not even within countries. [The research was carried out by a consortium led by 3s Unternehmensberatung GmbH, led by Dr Jorg Markowitch; the consortium includes the Danish Technological Institute, the Institute of Employment Research (University of Warwick), the Institute of International and Social Studies (Tallinn University) and Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini. The Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in Germany is supporting the project as a subcontractor.]

For many years the co-operative education program at Madison Park Technical Vocational High School in Boston has fallen short of supporters' hopes for it. The number of students it placed in paid jobs with local employers was often below that of co-op programs at other career vocational technical education (CVTE) schools and mostly focused on three or four of Madison Park's 20 industry disciplines. Much of the reason for the disappointing performance has been attributed to struggles the school has endured during the last decade, by now a well-worn story. In 2016 Madison Park was designated a Level 4 school by the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), earning an "underperforming" label. Accordingly, school officials created a turnaround plan that they began implementing in June of that year. The co-operative education program, in which students receive hands-on training while being paid, is showing positive signs. The number of students working co-op jobs, though still well behind other regional voc-tech schools, has grown. But can Madison Park notch a win beyond its own walls? More specifically, can it play a larger role in creating educational and economic opportunity in Boston by supplying needed skilled labor for Boston-based businesses? State officials forecast thousands of job opportunities during the next eight years for workers who have the skills and education to do the job. Will the school created to train those workers fulfill its promise? This is the second of two papers by Pioneer Institute about the recovery effort at Madison Park. The first report, published in September of this year, examined the turnaround plan and reported on its progress as judged by the 10-year review of the New England Association of Schools and Colleges. This paper looks at the school's co-operative education program because of its important place within the curriculum and the potential it holds. The paper draws on interviews with school officials, state employment data and other CVTE educators and advocates. [For the first report, "Madison Park Technical Vocational High School Turnaround Update. White Paper No. 215," see ED607841.]

This paper provides an overview of government policy on young people who are Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) across the four UK nations. The paper argues that policy in England on this topic is less well-developed and coherent than in the other UK nations, and that the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic will serve to amplify the negative impacts of a set of underlying changes that have been taking place in the youth labour market and in employers' recruitment and selection practices. In addition, the paper notes that in much of the activity directed at reducing those with NEET status has been funded through the EU's European Social Fund and that uncertainty now clouds the continuance of these schemes, and that in England government has increasingly relied on the charities to help fill gaps in outreach and provision.

Work-based learning (WBL) has risen rapidly in the policy agenda over recent years in the European Union. Efforts to strengthen WBL, particularly in vocational education and training (VET), are increasingly common throughout European countries. This report analyses the 2016 EU labour force survey (EU-LFS) ad hoc module, which covers the topic of young people on the labour market. The report focuses on WBL in formal initial education and training. It aims to provide EU-wide updated statistical evidence addressing key aspects: how many young graduates experienced work-based learning as part of their highest education attained, particularly in VET and in tertiary education; who they are; and how well they do on the labour market, in comparison with their counterparts who have not participated in WBL.

The feedback between vocational education and training (VET) and the labour market can provide important input for the review and renewal of qualifications. A feedback loop that is based on learning outcomes helps provide deeper insights into what is required on the labour market, what is offered in training provisions and assessed at the end of a learning programme. The aim of this study is to contribute to strengthening the quality and relevance of qualifications and completing the feedback loop between education and the labour market. It examines methods of collecting data on the match/mismatch between qualifications and labour market requirements, including analysis of how achieved learning outcomes are applied and perceived in the labour market (for example methods of collecting the experience of employers with holders of these qualifications). This report addresses the following two questions: (1) which data already exist in the countries, providing insight into the relevance of qualifications to employees, employers and other labour market stakeholders?; and (2) how can survey methodology be designed to systematically capture the experiences and appreciations of employers as regards the content and profile of qualifications? To what extent, based on limited testing, can scalability of the methodology be achieved?

The paper discusses the implications of recent advances in artificial intelligence for knowledge workers, focusing on possible complementarities and substitution between machine translation tools and language professionals. The emergence of machine translation tools could enhance social welfare through enhanced opportunities for inter-language communication but also create new threats because of persisting low levels of accuracy and quality in the translation output. The paper uses data on online job vacancies to map the evolution of the demand for language professionals between 2015 and 2019 in 10 countries and illustrates the set of skills that are considered important by employers seeking to hire language professionals through job vacancies posted on line.

The purpose of this brief paper is to present initial findings from the recently collected London School of Economics and Political Science-Centre for Economic Performance (LSE-CEP) Social Mobility survey, which was undertaken as part of the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) project 'Generation COVID and Social Mobility: Evidence and Policy'. These are the first results from a project that is producing a detailed assessment of COVID-19's impact on education and economic inequalities and offering an assessment for the longer term consequences for social mobility in the UK. Alongside the survey findings, the authors have also analysed economic and education outcomes of individuals in April 2020 in the Understanding Society (USoc) national household panel data. Before the pandemic, younger generations were already facing declining absolute social mobility and real wage decline (Elliot Major and Machin, 2018, 2020a). Education inequalities were also widening. Here new findings are presented on inequalities in the workplace and the classroom that have emerged following the pandemic.

Nationally, 38.5% of the students who began at a four-year college in 2011-12 attended another college within the first six years of college entry, and more than half of these students attended a community college. Eight percent of students who began at a four-year institution took up to 10 credits at a community college during the same period. Given the number of students involved, it is helpful to better understand how this kind of postsecondary enrollment pattern affects students. This paper considers a sample of "supplementally enrolled" students who began in and primarily enrolled in four-year colleges but who also earned limited numbers of credits at community colleges. We use student data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 and a propensity score matching approach to compare key outcomes of four-year college students who earned 1 to 10 credits at two-year colleges during their first three years at college with those of four-year college students who never earned credits in a two-year college. Many of the supplementally enrolled students took STEM courses at a two-year college. We find that the supplementally enrolled students had higher STEM and total credits earned, higher bachelor's degree attainment, and better employment outcomes than the students who never earned credits from a two-year college. Subgroup results also suggest that supplemental enrollment can potentially improve STEM degree attainment outcomes, particularly for low-socioeconomic-status and female students.

This paper, jointly prepared by Cedefop and the ETF, aims to inform the next steps in VET policy- making at EU level, including the Osnabruck declaration expected to be discussed by ministers in the autumn of 2020. It puts forward key challenges and opportunities for VET which have emerged from the intelligence, research and evidence collected over the years by the two agencies, each within its own remit and geographic scope.

This paper discusses the developments in the renewable energy sector and their impact on jobs and training. It compiles and makes an analysis of how the available technologies in the market will further develop corresponding with global trends in the energy efficiency and renewable energy sectors, and the corresponding capacities that are needed to make the transition from fossil fuel-based consumption into another supported by renewable energy. The role of Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) in developing skills and qualified professionals for jobs in the renewable energy sector is a key vector of analysis. [ADENE - Agência para a Energia, Renewables Academy AG (RENAC), and Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency (C2E2) were contributors to this report.]

This article investigates the causal relationship between women's schooling and fertility by exploiting variation generated by the removal of school fees in Ethiopia. The increase in schooling caused by the reform is identified using both geographic variation in the intensity of its impact and temporal variation generated by the timing of the implementation. The model finds that the removal of school fees led to an increase in schooling for Ethiopian women and that each additional year of schooling led to a reduction in fertility. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms linking schooling and fertility finds that the decline in fertility is associated with an increase in labor market opportunity and a reduction in women's ideal number of children. [This paper is a product of the Knowledge and Strategy Team, Development Economics.]

This article looks at the labour market outcomes of 2015 postsecondary graduates three years after graduation. Specifically, it examines their employment status, job permanency, relatedness of their job or business to their 2015 educational program, the degree to which graduates feel qualified for their job, their employment income and their job satisfaction. This article answers the question: How are graduates of 2015 faring in terms of their integration into the labour market?

This study uses longitudinal data combining information from the Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS) with data from personal income tax (T1 Family File) to analyze the impact of short-duration credentials (certificates and diplomas from colleges and universities), completed after an undergraduate degree, on the outcomes on the labour market of graduates from Canadian public universities.

We examine how teachers from two alternative preparation programs--Teach for America (TFA) and Kansas City Teacher Residency (KCTR)--contribute to the teacher labor market in and around Kansas City, Missouri. We show that TFA and KCTR teachers are more likely than other teachers to work in charter schools, and more broadly, in schools with high concentrations of low-income, low-performing, and underrepresented minority (Black and Hispanic) students. TFA and KCTR teachers are themselves more racial/ethnically diverse than the larger local-area teaching workforce, but only KCTR teachers are more diverse than teachers in the same districts in which they work. In math in grades 4-8 we find sizeable, positive impacts of TFA and KCTR teachers on test-score growth relative to non-program teachers. We also estimate positive impacts on test-score growth in English Language Arts (ELA) for teachers from both programs, but our ELA estimates are smaller in magnitude.

In both Canada and the United States, immigrants constitute a disproportionately large share of the supply of university-educated labour trained in the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields. This article examines the Canada-U.S. differences in the occupational skill utilization and earnings of STEM-educated immigrant workers. Using data from the 2016 Census for Canada and the combined 2015 to 2017 American Community Survey, this analysis focuses on immigrants with a university degree in a STEM field who were aged 25 to 64 and arrived as adults. Over one-half of STEM-educated immigrant workers in both countries held non-STEM jobs. In Canada, only about 20% of these immigrants with non-STEM jobs worked in occupations that required a university education, compared with 48% in the United States. There was a large earnings gap between STEM-educated immigrants and native-born workers in Canada, even after adjusting for sociodemographic differences, while no corresponding earnings gap existed in the United States. The earnings gap in Canada was particularly large for STEM-educated immigrants holding non-STEM jobs. Possible explanations for these results are discussed.

This study introduces a new approach to measure effectiveness of teacher preparation programs at U.S. universities (TPP) by examining to what extent TPPs produce employable teacher candidates. We use teacher application data in Wisconsin public schools from 2014-15 through 2016-17. We find that attending a specific university's TPP makes a difference for novice teacher applicants' job outcomes. However, the competitiveness of a TPP is inextricable from the geographic locale in which it operates. These findings call into question the validity of a contextual and absolute TPP rankings. Our results suggest that graduates of TPPs with strong school and community partnerships are more competitive in the local labor market.

Selective college admissions are fundamentally a question of tradeoffs: Given capacity, admitting one student means rejecting another. Research to date has generally estimated average effects of college selectivity and has been unable to distinguish between the effects on students gaining access and on those losing access under alternative admissions policies. We use the introduction of the Top Ten Percent rule and administrative data from the State of Texas to estimate the effect of access to a selective college on student graduation and earnings outcomes. We estimate separate effects on two groups of students. The first--highly ranked students at schools which previously sent few students to the flagship university--gain access due to the policy; the second--students outside the top tier at traditional "feeder" high schools--tend to lose access. We find that students in the first group see increases in college enrollment and graduation with some evidence of positive earnings gains 7-9 years after college. In contrast, students in the second group attend less selective colleges but do not see declines in overall college enrollment, graduation, or earnings. The Top Ten Percent rule, introduced for equity reasons, thus also seems to have improved efficiency. [This research was originally published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (see ED604542). Funding was provided by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence Scheme, FAIR project No 262675.]

The European qualifications framework (EQF), with its eight levels, serves as a translation grid between qualifications acquired in different European countries. Part of Cedefop's work to make qualifications easier to understand and compare, this study takes a closer look at those acquired through initial VET and assigned to EQF levels 3 and 4 via national classifications and frameworks. It explores what they have in common and in what way they differ. It looks at their purpose and value on the labour market or for further learning, and how they are assigned to the national qualifications frameworks (NQFs) and EQF levels. It also sheds light on the different weighting of occupational and transversal skills and competences and levels of complexity, and between qualifications at both levels within the same occupational area; these issues are not that often examined. While it confirms that describing the intended outcomes of learning improves understanding and eases comparison of vocational qualifications, the study highlights other aspects that are equally important, such as their currency and value on the labour market and in further learning.

We study how human capital diversification, in the form of double majoring, affects the response of earnings to labor market shocks. Double majors experience substantial protection against earnings shocks, of 56%. This finding holds across different model specifications and data sets. Furthermore, the protection double majors experience is more pronounced when the two majors are more distantly related, highlighting the importance of diverse skill sets. Additional analyses demonstrate that double majors are more likely to work in jobs that require a diverse set of skills and knowledge and are less likely to work in occupations that are closely related to their majors.

Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) is widely considered an important tool in strengthening the school-to-work transition, reducing poverty, and achieving economic growth. However, significant barriers prevent girls in Nepal from realizing such opportunities. This paper, drawing from field research and desk review, identifies three major factors--education, the labor market, and social norms--underlying why girls are not able to leverage TVET to their advantage. Overall, an underemphasis and underinvestment in TVET by families, schools, government, and the private sector pose the greatest challenge to improving girls' participation in TVET and thus to girls' transitions to work. Based on my study and professional experience working to enhance the right of children to education, this paper provides policy recommendations for government, private sector, and nongovernmental organizations to improve girls' participation in TVET in order to improve their labor market outcomes and life prospects. The recommendations are concentrated in three different areas: improving girls' "access" to TVET programs, enabling their "completion" of TVET programs, and facilitating their "transition" to work. Increasing investment in TVET--along with creating a gender-transformative approach that enables females to participate more fully in both TVET programs and the labor market--would meaningfully help to realize the promises of education in Nepal.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce--the world's largest business federation--and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation have for the past five years been attempting to bridge the gap and address trust issues between the postsecondary education community and employer community. Rather than placing limitations on the curriculum or taking away academic freedom from faculty, such a partnership has the potential to unlock new learning pathways that can meet the needs of today's diverse learners. With this in mind, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation created the Talent Pipeline Management® (TPM) movement as an effort to bridge the divide between postsecondary education and the employer community. TPM® provides a framework for re-imagining the partnership of these two communities, co-designing learning pathways, and developing authentic, performance-based challenges and learning experiences that address the demonstration of learning gap. In this Occasional Paper, we describe the unique challenges a dynamic, changing labor market poses for employer-education partnerships; including the inherent limitations of current alignment practices and tools. Then, we introduce TPM as a partnership model that allows employers to more meaningfully signal their competency needs to educators and how educators can, in turn, describe their evidence of learning in ways that are understood by employers relative to those competency needs. The latter half of the paper explores how employers and education partners can use TPM as a framework for engaging one another in co-designing learning pathways that produce evidence of learning that is meaningful to both sides. [Foreword by Natasha A. Jankowski.]

Better-educated workers form many more long-distance job matches, and they move more quickly following local employment shocks. I argue this is a consequence of larger dispersion in wage offers, independent of geography. In a frictional market, this generates larger surpluses for workers in new matches, which can better justify the cost of moving - should the offer originate from far away. The market is then "thinner" but better integrated spatially. I motivate my hypothesis with new evidence on mobility patterns and subjective moving costs; and I test it using wage returns to local and long-distance matches over the jobs ladder. [This paper supersedes an earlier (2015) version entitled "Why are Higher Skilled Workers More Mobile Geographically? The Role of the Job Surplus" (CEP Discussion Paper 1338). Additional support was provided by the Royal Economic Society.]

Over the last two decades, Mexico has experienced macroeconomic stability, an open trade regime, and substantial progress in education. Yet average workers' earnings have stagnated, and earnings of those with higher schooling have fallen, compressing the earnings distribution and lowering the returns to education. This paper argues that distortions that misallocate resources toward less-productive firms explain these phenomena, because these firms are less intensive in well-educated workers compared with more-productive ones. It shows that while the relative supply of workers with more years of schooling has increased, misallocation of resources toward less productive firms has persisted. These two trends have generated a widening mismatch between the supply of, and the demand for, educated workers. The paper breaks down worker earnings into observable and unobservable firm and individual worker characteristics, and computes a counterfactual earnings distribution in the absence of misallocation. The main finding is that in the absence of misallocation average earnings would be higher, and that earnings differentials across schooling levels would widen, raising the returns to education. A no-misallocation path is constructed for the wage premium. Depending on parameter values, this path is found to be rising or constant, in contrast to the observed downward path. The paper concludes arguing that the persistence of misallocation impedes Mexico from taking full advantage of its investments in the education of its workforce. [This paper is a product of the Strategy and Operations Team, Development Economics Vice Presidency.]

This paper studies the impact of the First Great Migration on children. We use the complete-count 1940 Census to estimate selection-corrected place effects on education for children of Black migrants. On average, Black children gained 0.8 years of schooling (12 percent) by moving from the South to the North. Many counties that had the strongest positive impacts on children during the 1940s offer relatively poor opportunities for Black youth today. Opportunities for Black children were greater in places with more schooling investment, stronger labor market opportunities for Black adults, more social capital, and less crime.

The number of young people who are not in employment, education and training -- NEET, as this group has become widely known as -- is a key indicator on the state of youth labour markets and opportunities for young people more generally. The persistence and, in the years following the global financial crisis, growth of this group of young people is a major concern for policy makers in Europe for both its short term and long term consequences. However, it is a diverse group as people can be NEET for many reasons, and so understanding the importance of these reasons is crucial for targeting policy responses. This paper looks at data on young people between the age of 16 and 29 in the UK, tracks how the incidence or chance of being NEET has changed over the period between 1985 and 2015, and highlights which characteristics are associated with a higher chance of being NEET and how the importance of these drivers has changed over time. We show that the overall NEET rate has fallen considerably since the 1980s, but has remained largely the same since 2000. Over the past thirty years, the reduction in young people leaving school with few or no qualifications, fewer young people having children and improvements in the chances for young women to work alongside childcare responsibilities have all put a downward pressure on NEET rates, although penalties for women with childcare are still large. Since 2000, an increase in the incidence of mental ill health has acted in the opposite way, while a slower rate of improved educational attainment and some scarring from the 2008-9 recession has also contributed to the persistence of NEETs. We argue that the current policy focus on skills and work incentives for reducing the number of NEETs in the UK misses two key obstacles -- mental ill health and child care. Policies to either tackle increasing mental ill health rates or facilitate (where possible and desirable) some form of labour market participation specific to sufferers of mental ill health could be expected to have some large effects on their own. Moreover, the government could also look to reduce childcare costs and facilitate flexible working for those who want to balance care with work. That said, we find no relationship between the availability of part-time work in a region and NEET rates, so the solution here is unlikely to be as simple as creating more jobs -- of any type and quality -- which offer a smaller number of hours.

In this paper we estimate the impacts of the "pathways" chosen by community college students--in terms of desired credentials and fields of study, as well as other choices and outcomes along the paths--on the attainment of credentials with labor market value. We focus on the extent to which there are recorded changes in students' choices over time, whether students make choices informed by their chances of success and by labor market value of credentials, and the impacts of choices on outcomes. We find that several characteristics of chosen pathways, such as field of study and desired credential as well as early "momentum," affect outcomes. Student choices of pathways are not always driven by information about later chances of success, in terms of probabilities of completing programs and attaining strong earnings. Students also change pathways quite frequently, making it harder to accumulate the credits needed in their fields. Attainment of credentials with greater market value could thus likely be improved by appropriate guidance and supports for students along the way, and perhaps by broader institutional changes as well. [Financial support for this report was provided by the Economic Self-Sufficiency Policy Research Institute (ESSPRI) at UC Irvine.]

Over one in three students who started college in 2012 did not enroll in the fall immediately following their high school graduation. Despite the prevalence of delayed college enrollment, however, little is known about its consequences for labor market outcomes. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, this paper examines the characteristics and earnings trajectories of students who do not enroll in college immediately after high school ("delayers") and the effects of this choice on academic and labor market outcomes. Propensity score matching results show that delaying college enrollment decreases individuals' likelihood of enrolling in college and increases their tendency to enroll in two-year colleges if they do return to school. They also show that, consistent with the study's descriptive results, the early earnings benefits experienced by delayers fade out after their mid-20s and turn to significant losses over time. Oaxaca decomposition results indicate that differences in student characteristics only explain one third of the pay gap between the two groups; 60 percent of the pay gap is explained by delayers' reduced likelihood of attending and obtaining a degree at a four-year college.

"The student journey: skilling for life" is the theme for the 28th National Vocational Education and Training Research Conference 'No Frills'. In this discussion paper, we look at how vocational education and training (VET) supports lifelong learners. We explore VET's role in assisting lifelong learning and seek to understand how VET will need to transform in the future to enable it to confront the challenges of an increasingly complex and changing world. We also profile the various lifelong learner types.

This paper focuses on the potential of competency assessment to support the long-term growth of the labour market by facilitating the appropriate employment of skilled immigrants. A competency-informed approach involves looking holistically at an individual's ability to apply knowledge and skills with appropriate judgment in a defined setting. The report details several key projects World Education Services (WES) will undertake as part of our commitment to a more holistic, competency-informed assessment model of immigrants' knowledge, skills, and abilities. Ensuring that immigrants have access to pathways to employment, education, and training must be an essential piece of a long-term plan for Canadian growth and prosperity.

This study compares the differences in the mismatch between the education and occupations of immigrants in Canada and the United States, operationalized by over-education. It further explores how the cross-country differences may be related to the supply of and demand for university-educated immigrants and the way they are selected. Using comparable data and three measures of over-education, this study found that university-educated recent immigrants in Canada were much more likely to be overeducated than their U.S. peers. The over-education rate gap between recent immigrants and the native-born was much more pronounced in Canada than in the United States. In addition, while labour market demand was associated with a lower level of over-education in both countries, a greater supply of university-educated recent immigrants was positively associated with a likelihood of over-education among recent immigrants in Canada, but not in the United States. Furthermore, in Canada, the over-education rate was significantly lower among immigrants who were admitted through some form of employer selection (e.g., immigrants who worked in skilled jobs in Canada before immigration) than those who were admitted directly from abroad. Overall, this study provides insight into how the immigration system interacts with broader aspects of the labour market to shape the labour market outcomes of immigrants.

We describe the postsecondary transitions of students taking CTE courses in high school using administrative data on one cohort of high school graduates in Washington State. Conditional on observable characteristics, CTE concentrators--high school graduates who complete at least four CTE credits--are about 4 percentage points less likely to enroll in college than other high school graduates. However, CTE students are significantly more likely to enroll in and complete vocational programs, especially in certificate programs in applied STEM and public safety fields. Among students not enrolled in college, CTE students are also more likely to obtain full-time employment--and to work more intensively--within the first three years following high school graduation. Although the improvements in employment outcomes do not offset reductions in college enrollment, the higher completion rates of vocational credentials among CTE concentrators indicate some important positive outcomes for this population.

This article explores the efficacy and cost effectiveness of New Labour's skills-based policies to help low paid workers adjust to the pressures generated by globalisation, of which the leading example was Train to Gain (T2G). It also analyses the more general issue of how, why and under what circumstances education, training and skills can help imbue low paid workers with greater bargaining power within the labour market.

I examine a new generation of Career and Technical Education (CTE) models that has shifted from isolated courses to sequences of study that integrate academics and skills in specific career areas. I use data for a competitive grant administered by the California Department of Education (CDE) that incentives K-12 school districts to partner with community colleges and businesses to increase the career readiness levels of high school students. This study provides causal estimates of receiving large grants (i.e., up to 15 million dollars) to create aligned pathways by leveraging a natural experiment that occurs at the margin of grant receipt. Per pupil CTE expenditures increased by 21.7 percent at school districts that received the grant compared to unsuccessful applicants. Furthermore, dropout rates declined by 23 percent in districts receiving grants. The reduction in dropout rates appears to be concentrated for females and 11th grade students. The impacts for females may be related to design choices by grant applicants to focus on creating career pathways in traditionally female dominated sectors (e.g. health care support). The cost of preventing a single student from dropping out from this intervention is approximately 18,000 dollars compared to the present discounted value of a high school diploma of 300,000 dollars.

This study develops, validates, and applies a typology of teachers using labor market data. We construct our typology by applying a correlated topic model to 17,000 personal statements teachers submitted as part of their applications to open positions in Wisconsin public schools. We identify seven types of teachers active on the labor market: Inclusivists, Idealists, Nurturers, Generalists, Classroom Experts, Guides, and External Experts. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, we explore trends within and among types as well as demographic relationships and labor market behaviors. This research provides novel insights into the philosophies, mission, vision, and values of teachers; links these characteristics to teachers' job market preferences; and provides a sound psychometric foundation for these measures of teacher type to be applied in subsequent research.

Given the time and money invested in higher education by students, parents and governments, there is considerable interest in the economic outcomes of postsecondary graduates. Most assessments of recent graduates have focused on their short-term, early labour market results. As new entrants to the labour force, recent postsecondary graduates may be particularly vulnerable to the economic cycle. Consequently, comparisons of short-term outcomes across graduating cohorts may be highly dependent on prevailing economic conditions and may not reflect the longer-term returns on investments. This is the first study to compare the long-term labour market outcomes of two cohorts of young postsecondary graduates using linked census and tax data. Specifically, graduates who were 26 to 35 years old in 1991 were followed from 1991 to 2005 (when they were 40 to 49 years old) and compared with a similarly aged 2001 cohort, which was followed from 2001 to 2015. The results suggest that median cumulative earnings were higher among members of the more recent cohort of male and female postsecondary graduates. Increases were observed across all postsecondary levels and across most major disciplines where sample sizes were large enough to permit analysis. Also, no discipline registered a decline in cumulative earnings. Although the economic conditions faced by the 2001 cohort over the 15-year study period were generally more favourable, this cohort also registered higher earnings than the 1991 cohort during the latter portion of the period (i.e., when the 2001 cohort was faced with an economic recession). Furthermore, the initial labour market conditions upon graduation (an important determinant of career earnings) were similar for both cohorts. The improvements in long-term earnings for postsecondary graduates are important in light of the significant increase in the number of graduates over the period. However, the results also indicate that the number of years of union membership declined or remained steady across cohorts of male and female postsecondary graduates. Furthermore, while women with postsecondary qualifications registered increases in the number of years of employer-sponsored pension plan coverage, their male counterparts experienced mixed results depending on their level of postsecondary studies.

This publication is the sixth in a series produced as part of the Cedefop project The changing nature and role of VET (2016-18). Based on analysis of developments over the past two decades (1995-2015), the report provides important insights into developments and change processes related to vocationally oriented education and training at higher levels (levels 5 to 8 of the European qualifications framework). Building on detailed national case studies, the report demonstrates the expansion and diversification of vocationally oriented education and training offered at higher levels in European countries and the variations in how countries use the higher levels: there is evidence for strengthening vocational principles at higher levels in various ways as well as for strengthening academic principles. It also covers current debates and potential future challenges, including juggling labour market demands and wider societal values, finding the right balance between academic and vocational principles, and achieving parity of esteem between academically oriented and vocationally oriented qualifications at higher levels, by improving awareness and visibility of the latter. [The research was carried out by a consortium led by 3s Unternehmensberatung GmbH, and includes the Danish Technological Institute, the Institute of Employment Research (University of Warwick), the Institute of International and Social Studies (Tallinn University) and Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini. The Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in Germany is supporting the project as a subcontractor.]

Changes in the credentialing market have produced a complex, multilayered ecosystem with a demand for shorter credentials that are focused around job market competencies. Community colleges are well positioned to lead this emerging market for three reasons. (1) Their dual mission to offer both traditional degrees and workforce development programs provides a competitive advantage in piloting and implementing many of the new types of credentials, especially those that can be embedded into traditional degree programs. (2) They have a long history in awarding certificates, one type of shorter work-aligned credential that is experiencing a new emphasis in today's market. (3) They have an established infrastructure, content knowledge experts, and employer relationships that can support a broad array of shorter credentials with a solid level of quality assurance. To play a central, even leading role, in the new credentialing market, community colleges must build credentials that respond to four growing trends and imperatives: building competency and market-oriented programs, structuring credentials to facilitate lifelong learning, unbundling learning in traditional degrees, and recognizing the need for quality assurance.

Principals are widely seen as a key influence on the educational environment of schools, and nearly all principals have experience as teachers. Yet there is no evidence on whether we can predict the effectiveness of principals (as measured by their value added) based on their value added as teachers, an issue we explore using administrative data from Washington. Several descriptive features of the principal labor market stand out. First, teachers who become principals tend to have higher levels of educational attainment while teaching and are less likely to be female, but we find no significant differences in licensure test scores between those teachers who become principals and those we do not observe in the principalship. Second, principal labor markets appear to be quite localized: about 50 percent of principals previously taught in the same district in which they assumed a principalship. We find positive correlations between teacher and principal value added in reading (ELA) and similarly sized but less precise estimates in math. Teachers who become principals have slightly higher teacher value added, but the difference between the two groups is not statistically significant, suggesting that principals are not systematically selected based on their prior effectiveness when serving as a classroom teacher.