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To develop and validate a clinical prediction model of patient-reported pain and function after undergoing total knee replacement (TKR). We used data of 1,649 patients from the Knee Arthroplasty Trial who received primary TKR across 34 centres in the UK. The external validation included 595 patients from Southampton University Hospital, and Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre (Oxford). The outcome was the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) 12-month after TKR. Pre-operative predictors including patient characteristics and clinical factors were considered. Bootstrap backward linear regression analysis was used. Low pre-operative OKS, living in poor areas, high body mass index, and patient-reported anxiety or depression were associated with worse outcome. The clinical factors associated with worse outcome were worse pre-operative physical status, presence of other conditions affecting mobility and previous knee arthroscopy. Presence of fixed flexion deformity and an absent or damaged pre-operative anterior cruciate ligament (compared with intact) were associated with better outcome. Discrimination and calibration statistics were satisfactory. External validation predicted 21.1% of the variance of outcome. This is the first clinical prediction model for predicting self-reported pain and function 12 months after TKR to be externally validated. It will help to inform to patients regarding expectations of the outcome after knee replacement surgery.

Objective: To examine the cross-sectional association of whole-knee synovitis assessed by contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CEMRI) with radiographic tibiofemoral osteoarthritis (OA), non-CEMRI-assessed cartilage damage, and meniscal status., Methods: Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) is a cohort study of people with or at high risk of knee OA. Subjects are a subset of MOST who volunteered for both CEMRI and non-CEMRI. Using CEMRI, synovitis was assessed at 11 sites and graded 0-2 at each site. Presence of "whole-knee synovitis" was defined as the synovitis score of ≥ 1 at any site from each knee. Cartilage and meniscal damage was evaluated using non-CEMRI based on the Whole Organ MRI Score. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of synovitis with radiographic OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), widespread cartilage damage, and meniscal damage, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). Additional analyses were performed excluding subjects who had chondrocalcinosis on radiography and those taking antiinflammatory medications., Results: Four hundred four subjects were included (mean age 58.8 ± 7.0 yrs, BMI 29.6 ± 4.9 kg/m(2), 45.5% women). On CEMRI, the maximum synovitis score across 11 sites in each knee was 0 in 106 knees (26.2%), 1 in 135 (33.4%), and 2 in 163 (40.4%). Synovitis was associated with radiographic OA [adjusted OR (aOR) 3.25, 95% CI 1.98-5.35] and widespread cartilage damage (aOR 1.91, 95% CI 1.24-2.92). Severe meniscal damage showed a borderline significant association with synovitis (aOR 1.74, 95% CI 0.99-3.04). Additional analyses as described did not notably change the results., Conclusion: CEMRI-detected synovitis is strongly associated with tibiofemoral radiographic OA and MRI-detected widespread cartilage damage.

Objective: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort., Methods: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiographs of the knees (with the legs in full extension) were obtained at approximately 5-year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA in a blinded manner, using Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grades. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare the incidence, worsening, and progression of radiographic knee OA., Results: A complete radiography series was available for 561 of the original 1,003 subjects enrolled in the study. The median age of these subjects at baseline was 53 years (interquartile range 48-58 years). At baseline, 13.7% of the subjects had radiographic knee OA (K/L grade≥2) in at least one knee, and the prevalence increased to 47.8% by year 15. The annual cumulative incidence of radiographic knee OA was 2.3% between baseline and year 15. The annual rates of disease progression and worsening between baseline and year 15 were 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Subjects with a K/L grade of 1 at baseline were more likely to experience worsening by year 15 compared with subjects with a baseline grade of 0 (OR 4.5, 95% confidence interval 2.7-7.4)., Conclusion: This is the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. The results showed relatively low rates for the incidence and progression of radiographic knee OA; more than half of all subjects had no radiographic evidence of knee OA over a 15-year period of time. Subjects with a baseline K/L grade of 1 were more likely than subjects with other baseline K/L grades to experience worsening of knee OA., (Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: To describe the temporal patterns of knee pain in a community-based cohort over 12 years., Methods: Data on self-reported knee pain at 4 time points over 12 years were analyzed in participants from the Chingford Women's Study of osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis. Pain status was defined as any pain in the preceding month and pain on most days in the preceding month. This status was used to classify participants according to pain patterns of asymptomatic, persistent, incident, or intermittent pain. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify baseline predictors for each pain pattern., Results: Among the 489 women with complete followup data, the median age at baseline was 52 years (interquartile range [IQR] 48-58 years), the median body mass index (BMI) was 24.39 kg/m(2) (IQR 22.46-27.20), and 11.7% of the women had a Kellgren/Lawrence radiographic OA severity grade of ≥2 in at least one knee. Among subjects reporting any pain in the preceding month versus those reporting pain on most days in the preceding month, 9% versus 2% had persistent pain, 24% versus 16% had incident pain, and 29% versus 18% had intermittent pain. A higher BMI was predictive of persistent pain (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.04-1.25) and incident pain (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.18). The presence of radiographic knee OA was predictive of persistent pain (OR 3.70, 95% CI 1.34-10.28; P = 0.012), and reported knee injury was predictive of both persistent pain (OR 4.13, 95% CI 1.34-12.66; P = 0.013) and intermittent pain (OR 4.25, 95% CI 1.81-9.98; P = 0.001)., Conclusion: Significant variability in the temporal fluctuation of self-reported knee pain was seen in this community-based prospective study over a period of 12 years, with few women consistently reporting knee pain at each time point. Distinct baseline predictors for each pain pattern were identified and may explain the observed heterogeneity of self-reported knee pain when pain status is measured at only one time point., (Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: To examine longitudinal patterns in body mass index (BMI) over 14 years and its association with knee pain in the Chingford Study., Methods: We studied a total of 594 women with BMI data from clinic visits at years (Y) 1, 5, 10, and 15. Knee pain at Y15 was assessed by questionnaire. Associations between BMI over 14 years and knee pain at Y15 were examined using logistic regression., Results: BMI significantly increased from Y1 to Y15 (P < 0.0005) with medians (interquartile ranges) of 24.5 kg/m(2) (22.5-27.2 kg/m(2) ) and 26.5 kg/m(2) (23.9-30.1 kg/m(2) ), respectively. At Y15, 45.1% of subjects had knee pain. A greater BMI at Y1 (odds ratio [OR] 1.34, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.69), at Y15 (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10-1.61), and change in BMI over 15 years (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.00-1.93) were significant predictors of knee pain at Y15 (P < 0.05). BMI change was associated with bilateral (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-1.76, P = 0.024) but not unilateral knee pain (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.73-1.76, P = 0.298). The association between BMI change and knee pain was independent of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA). The strength of association between BMI and knee pain at Y15 was similar during followup measurements., Conclusion: Over 14 years, a higher BMI predicts knee pain at Y15 in women, independently of radiographic knee OA. When adjusted, the association was significant in bilateral, not unilateral, knee pain, suggesting alternative pathologic mechanisms may exist. The longitudinal effect of BMI on knee pain at Y15 is equally important at any time point, which may assist reducing the population burden of knee pain., (Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Rheumatology.)

Purpose: To assess the association of prevalent bone marrow edema-like lesions (BMLs) and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident subchondral cyst-like lesions (SCs) in the knee to evaluate the bone contusion versus synovial fluid intrusion theories of SC formation., Materials and Methods: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis study is a longitudinal study of individuals who have or are at risk for knee osteoarthritis. The HIPAA-compliant protocol was approved by the institutional review boards of all participating centers, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Magnetic resonance images were acquired at baseline and 30-month follow-up and read semiquantitatively by using the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score system. The tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joints were subdivided into 14 subregions. BMLs and SCs were scored from 0 to 3. Cartilage morphology was scored from 0 to 6. The association of prevalent BMLs and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident SCs in the same subregion was assessed by using logistic regression with mutual adjustment for both predictors., Results: A total of 1283 knees were included. After adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, prevalent BMLs showed a strong and significant association with incident SCs in the same subregion, with an odds ratio of 12.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.9, 18.6). After adjustment for BMLs, prevalent full-thickness cartilage loss showed a significant but much less important association with incident SCs in the same subregion (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.0). There was no apparent relationship between severity of full-thickness cartilage loss at baseline and incident SCs., Conclusion: Prevalent BMLs strongly predict incident SCs in the same subregion, even after adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, which supports the bone contusion theory of SC formation., ((c) RSNA, 2010.)

Objective: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has greater sensitivity to detect osteoarthritis (OA) damage than radiographs but it is uncertain which MRI findings in early OA are clinically important. We examined MRI abnormalities detected in knees without radiographic OA and their association with incident knee symptoms., Method: Participants from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) without frequent knee symptoms (FKS) at baseline were eligible if they also lacked radiographic features of OA at baseline. At 15 months, knees that developed FKS were defined as cases while control knees were drawn from those that remained without FKS. Baseline MRIs were scored at each subregion for cartilage lesions (CARTs); osteophytes (OST); bone marrow lesions (BML) and cysts. We compared cases and controls using marginal logistic regression models, adjusting for age, gender, race, body mass index (BMI), previous injury and clinic site., Results: 36 case knees and 128 control knees were analyzed. MRI damage was common in both cases and controls. The presence of a severe CART (P=0.03), BML (P=0.02) or OST (P=0.02) in the whole knee joint was more common in cases while subchondral cysts did not differ significantly between cases and controls (P>0.1). Case status at 15 months was predicted by baseline damage at only two locations; a BML in the lateral patella (P=0.047) and at the tibial subspinous subregions (P=0.01)., Conclusion: In knees without significant symptoms or radiographic features of OA, MRI lesions of OA in only a few specific locations preceded onset of clinical symptoms and suggest that changes in bone play a role in the early development of knee pain. Confirmation of these findings in other prospective studies of knee OA is warranted., (Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objectives: Previous studies suggest that high systemic bone mineral density (BMD) is associated with incident knee osteoarthritis (OA) defined by osteophytes but not with joint space narrowing (JSN), and are inconsistent regarding BMD and progression of existing OA. The association of BMD with incident and progressive tibiofemoral OA was tested in a large prospective study of men and women aged 50-79 years with or at risk for knee OA., Methods: Baseline and 30-month weight-bearing posteroanterior and lateral knee radiographs were scored for Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade, JSN and osteophytes. Incident OA was defined as the development of K-L grade > or =2 at follow-up. All knees were classified for increases in grade of JSN and osteophytes from baseline. The association of gender-specific quartiles of baseline BMD with risk of incident and progressive OA was analysed using logistic regression, adjusting for covariates., Results: The mean (SD) age of 1754 subjects was 63.2 (7.8) years and body mass index was 29.9 (5.4) kg/m(2). In knees without baseline OA, higher femoral neck and whole body BMD were associated with an increased risk of incident OA and increases in grade of JSN and osteophytes (p<0.01 for trends); adjusted odds were 2.3-2.9-fold greater in the highest compared with the lowest BMD quartiles. In knees with existing OA, progression was not significantly related to BMD., Conclusions: In knees without OA, higher systemic BMD was associated with a greater risk of the onset of JSN and K-L grade > or =2. The role of systemic BMD in early knee OA pathogenesis warrants further investigation.

Objective: Subchondral bone attrition (SBA) is defined as flattening or depression of the osseous articular surface. The causes of attrition are unknown, but remodeling processes due to chronic overload that are reflected as bone marrow edema-like lesions (BMLs) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) might predispose the subchondral bone to subsequent attrition. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cross-sectional and longitudinal association of BMLs with SBA in the same subregion of the knee., Design: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) study is a longitudinal observational study of individuals who have or are at high risk for knee osteoarthritis. Subjects with available baseline and 30-months follow-up MRI were included. Patients with a recent history of trauma or findings suggestive of post-traumatic bone marrow changes were excluded. Subchondral BMLs and SBA were scored semiquantitatively from 0 to 3 in 10 tibiofemoral subregions. We evaluated the association of prevalent BMLs at baseline with the presence of prevalent and incident SBA on a per-subregion basis using logistic regression. We also cross-sectionally evaluated the association of BML grade severity and presence of baseline SBA., Results: One thousand and twenty-five knees were included. 8.9% of the analyzed knee subregions showed SBA present at baseline and 9.2% of subregions exhibited prevalent subchondral BMLs. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for prevalent SBA for subregions with prevalent BMLs was 18.8 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 15.9-22.4]. A larger BML size was directly associated with an increased risk of prevalent SBA. 195 (2.2%) subregions exhibited incident SBA at follow-up. The adjusted OR for incident SBA was 5.3 [95% CI 3.6-7.7] when compared to subregions without BMLs as the reference., Conclusions: Prevalent and incident SBA is strongly associated with subchondral BMLs in the same subregion. One explanation for the presence and development of SBA is subchondral remodeling due to increased stress, which is reflected as BMLs on MRI., (Copyright 2009 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

PurposeLower limb malalignment is a strong predictor of progression in knee osteoarthritis. The purpose of this study is to identify the individual alignment variables that predict progression in early to moderate osteoarthritis of the knee.MethodA longitudinal cohort study using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. In total, 955 individuals (1329 knees) with early to moderate osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence grade 1, 2 or 3) were identified. All subjects had full-limb radiographs analysed using the Osteotomy module within Medicad® Classic (Hectec GMBH) to give a series of individual alignment variables relevant to the coronal alignment of the lower limb. Logistic regression models, with generalised estimating equations were used to identify which of these individual alignment variables predict symptom worsening (WOMAC score > 9 points) and or structural progression (joint space narrowing progression in the medial compartment > 0.7mm) over 24 months.ResultsIndividual alignment variable were associated with both valgus and varus alignment (mechanical Lateral Distal Femoral Angle, Medial Proximal Tibial Angle and mechanical Lateral Distal Tibial Angle). Only the Medial Proximal Tibial Angle was significantly associated with structural progression and none of the variables was associated with symptom progression. The odds of joint space narrowing progression in the medial compartment occurring at 24 months increased by 21% for every one degree decrease (more varus) in Medial Proximal Tibial Angle (p < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the risk of structural progression in the medial compartment is associated with greater varus alignment of the proximal tibia.Level of evidenceLevel III, retrospective cohort study.

ObjectiveStrong associations between radiographic features of knee osteoarthritis (OA) and pain have been demonstrated in persons with unilateral knee symptoms. This study was undertaken to compare radiographic and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of knee OA and assess their ability to discriminate between painful and nonpainful knees in persons with unilateral symptoms.MethodsThe study population included 283 individuals ages 70-79 years with unilateral knee pain who were enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study, a study of weight-related diseases and mobility. Radiographs of both knees were read for Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grade and individual radiographic features, and 1.5T MRIs were assessed using the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score. The association between structural features and pain was assessed using a within-person case-control design and conditional logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was then used to test the discriminatory performance of structural features.ResultsIn conditional logistic analyses, knee pain was significantly associated with both radiographic features (any joint space narrowing grade ≥ 1) (odds ratio 3.20 [95% confidence interval 1.79-5.71]) and MRI features (any cartilage defect scored ≥ 2) (odds ratio 3.67 [95% confidence interval 1.49-9.04]). However, in most subjects, MRI revealed osteophytes and cartilage and bone marrow lesions in both knees, and using ROC analysis, no individual structural feature discriminated well between painful and nonpainful knees. The best-performing MRI feature (synovitis/effusion) was not significantly more informative than K/L grade ≥ 2 (P = 0.42).ConclusionIn persons with unilateral knee pain, MRI and radiographic features were associated with knee pain, confirming that structural abnormalities in the knee have an important role in the etiology of pain. However, no single MRI or radiographic finding performed well in discriminating between painful and nonpainful knees. Further work is needed to examine how structural and nonstructural factors influence knee pain.