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Tacrolimus is a critical dose drug with a considerable intrapatient variability (IPV) in its pharmacokinetics. We investigated whether a high IPV in tacrolimus exposure is associated with adverse long-term renal transplantation outcomes. Tacrolimus IPV was calculated from predose concentrations measured between 6 and 12 months post-transplantation of 808 renal transplant recipients (RTRs) transplanted between 2000 and 2010. One hundred and eighty-eight (23.3%) patients reached the composite end point consisting of graft loss, late biopsy-proven rejection, transplant glomerulopathy, or doubling of serum creatinine concentration between month 12 and the last follow-up. The cumulative incidence of the composite end point was significantly higher in patients with high IPV than in patients with low IPV (hazard ratio: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.06-1.89; P = 0.019). After the adjustment for several factors, the higher incidence of the composite end point for RTRs with a high IPV remained statistically significant (hazard ratio: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.06-1.90; P = 0.019). Younger recipient age at transplantation, previous transplantation, worse graft function (at month 6 post-transplantation), and low mean tacrolimus concentration at 1 year post-transplantation were additional predictors for worse long-term transplant outcome. A high tacrolimus IPV is an independent risk factor for adverse kidney transplant outcomes that can be used as an easy monitoring tool to help identify high-risk RTRs., (© 2016 Steunstichting ESOT.)

Background: We hypothesized that a high within-patient variability in clearance of tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) would put patients at risk for periods of over- or underimmunosuppression and would thus lead to long-term chronic allograft nephropathy and graft loss after transplantation., Methods: From 297 patients transplanted between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2004, the within-patient variability in clearance was calculated from tacrolimus whole-blood concentrations and mycophenolic acid (MPA) plasma concentrations drawn between 6 and 12 months post-transplantation. As a primary outcome, a composite end point consisting of graft loss, biopsy-proven chronic allograft nephropathy and 'doubling in plasma creatinine concentration in the period between t = 12 months post-transplantation and last follow-up' was used., Results: In the study population of 297 patients, 34 patients reached the primary end point of graft failure. The within-patient variability in the clearance of tacrolimus and three other covariates are significant risk factors for reaching the composite end point of failure [P-values for intraindividual tacrolimus variability = 0.003, biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) = 0.003, recipient age at transplantation = 0.005]. The mean tacrolimus concentration for controls [7.4 (+/- 2.9) ng/mL] and for failures [6.9 (+/- 2.5) ng/mL] was similar. Within-patient variability in the clearance of MPA was not related to reaching the composite end point of failure., Conclusions: This study shows a significant relationship between the high within-patient variability in the clearance of tacrolimus, but not for MPA, and long-term graft failure.