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The value of information regarding risk class for a monopoly insurer and its customers is examined in both symmetric and asymmetric information environments. A monopolist always prefers contracting with uninformed customers as this maximizes the rent extracted under symmetric information while also avoiding the cost of adverse selection when information is held asymmetrically. Although customers are indifferent to symmetric information when they are initially uninformed, they prefer contracting with hidden knowledge rather than symmetric information since the monopoly responds to adverse selection by sharing gains from trade with high-risk customers when low risks are predominant in the insurance pool. However, utilitarian social welfare is highest when customers are uninformed, and is higher when information is symmetric rather than asymmetric.

In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black-Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

Due to the strong complexity of financial markets, economics does not have a unified theory of price formation in financial markets. The most common assumption is the Efficient-Market Hypothesis, which has been attacked by a number of researchers, using different tools. There were varying degrees to which these tools complied with the formal definitions of efficiency and predictability. In our earlier work, we analysed the predictability of stock returns at two time scales using the entropy rate, which can be directly linked to the mathematical definition of predictability. Nonetheless, none of the above-mentioned studies allow any general understanding of how the financial markets work, beyond disproving the Efficient-Market Hypothesis. In our previous study, we proposed the Maximum Entropy Production Principle, which uses the entropy rate to create a general principle underlying the price formation processes. Both of these studies show that the predictability of price changes is higher at the transaction level intraday scale than the scale of daily returns, but ignore all scales in between. In this study we extend these ideas using the multiscale entropy analysis framework to enhance our understanding of the predictability of price formation processes at various time scales.

New risk-based solvency requirements for insurance companies across European markets have been introduced by Solvency II and will come in force from 1 January 2016. These requirements, derived by a Standard Formula or an Internal Model, will be by far more risk-sensitive than the required solvency margin provided by the current legislation. In this regard, a Partial Internal Model for Premium Risk is developed here for a multi-line Non-Life insurer. We follow a classical approach based on a Collective Risk Model properly extended in order to consider not only the volatility of aggregate claim amounts but also expense volatility. To measure the effect of risk mitigation, suitable reinsurance strategies are pursued. We analyze how naïve coverage as conventional Quota Share and Excess of Loss reinsurance may modify the exact moments of the distribution of technical results. Furthermore, we investigate how alternative choices of commission rates in proportional treaties may affect the variability of distribution. Numerical results are also figured out in the last part of the paper with evidence of different effects for small and large companies. The main reasons for these differences are pointed out.

Publicly provided long-term care (LTC) insurance with means-tested benefits is suspected to crowd out either private saving or informal care. This contribution predicts crowding-out effects for both private saving and informal care for policy measures designed to relieve the public purse from LTC expenditure such as more stringent means testing and increased taxation of inheritance. These effects result from the interaction of a parent who decides on the amount of saving in retirement and a caregiver who decides on the effort devoted to informal care which lowers the probability of admission to a nursing home. Double crowding-out effects are also found to be the consequence of exogenous influences, notably a higher opportunity cost of caregiving.

Insurance companies use conservative first order valuation bases to calculate insurance premiums and reserves. These valuation bases have a significant impact on the insurer’s solvency and on the premiums of the insurance products. Safety margins for systematic biometric and financial risk are in practice typically chosen as time-constant percentages on top of the best estimate transition intensities. We develop a risk-oriented method for the allocation of a total safety margin to the single safety margins at each point in time and each state. In a case study, we demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method in different frameworks. The results show that the traditional method yields an unwanted variability of the safety level with respect to time, whereas the variability can be significantly reduced by the new method. Furthermore, the case study supports the German 60 percent rule for the technical interest rate.

Being active in both the insurance sector and the banking sector, financial conglomerates intrinsically increase the interconnections between the banking sector and the insurance sector. We address two main concerns about financial conglomerates using a unique database on bilateral exposures between 21 French financial institutions. First, we investigate to what extent to which the insurers that are part of financial conglomerates differ from pure insurers. Second, we show that in the presence of sovereign risk, the components of a financial conglomerate are better off than if they were distinct entities. Our empirical findings bring a new perspective to the previous results of the literature based on using different types of data.

We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011).

We show that the results of ArXiv:1305.6008 on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (\emph{hedging options}) are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of \emph{robust no-arbitrage} which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are \emph{non-redundant}. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting., Comment: Final version. To appear in Risks

We present some new evidence on the tail distribution of commercial property losses based on a recently constructed dataset on large commercial risks. The dataset is based on contributions from Lloyd's of London syndicates, and provides information on over three thousand claims occurred during the period 2000 - 2012, including detailed information on exposures. We use occupancy characteristics to compare the tail risk profiles of different commercial property exposures, and find evidence of substantial heterogeneity in tail behavior. The results demonstrate the benefits of aggregating granular information on both claims and exposures from different data sources, and provide warning against the use of reserving and capital modeling approaches that are not robust to heavy tails.

International audience; Abstract. Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of results pertaining to the joint asymptotic Laplace transforms of the normalized sums of the smallest and largest claims, when the length of the considered time interval tends to infinity. The results crucially depend on the value of the tail index of the claim distribution, as well as on the number of largest claims under consideration.

In a diffusion model of risk, we focus on the initial capital needed to make the probability of ruin within finite time equal to a prescribed value. It is defined as a solution of a nonlinear equation. The endeavor to write down and to investigate analytically this solution as a function of the premium rate seems not technically feasible. Instead, we obtain informative bounds for this capital in terms of elementary functions.

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy that have been ongoing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a “perpetual money machine” type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has been increasingly funded by smaller savings, booming financial profits, wealth extracted from house price appreciation and explosive debt. This is in stark contrast with the productivity-fueled growth that was seen in the 1950s and 1960s. We describe the transition, in gestation in the 1970s, towards the regime of the “illusion of the perpetual money machine”, which started at full speed in the early 1980s and developed until 2008. This regime was further supported by a climate of deregulation and a massive growth in financial derivatives designed to spread and diversify the risks globally. The result has been a succession of bubbles and crashes, including the worldwide stock market bubble and great crash of October 1987, the savings and loans crisis of the 1980s, the burst in 1991 of the enormous Japanese real estate and stock market bubbles, the emerging markets bubbles and crashes in 1994 and 1997, the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis of 1998, the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, the recent house price bubbles, the financialization bubble via special investment vehicles, the stock market bubble, the commodity and oil bubbles and the current debt bubble, all developing jointly and feeding on each other until 2008. This situation may be further aggravated in the next decade by an increase in financialization, through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs), speed and automation, through algorithmic trading and public debt, and through growing unfunded liabilities. We conclude that, to get out of this catch 22 situation, we should better manage and understand the incentive structures in our society, we need to focus our efforts on our real economy and we have to respect and master the art of planning and prediction. Only gradual change, with a clear long term planning, can steer our financial and economic system from the turbulence associated with the perpetual money machine to calmer and more sustainable waters., Risks, 2 (2)

Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn, so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

In a bonus-malus system in car insurance, the bonus class of a customer is updated from one year to the next as a function of the current class and the number of claims in the year (assumed Poisson). Thus the sequence of classes of a customer in consecutive years forms a Markov chain, and most of the literature measures performance of the system in terms of the stationary characteristics of this Markov chain. However, the rate of convergence to stationarity may be slow in comparison to the typical sojourn time of a customer in the portfolio. We suggest an age-correction to the stationary distribution and present an extensive numerical study of its effects. An important feature of the modeling is a Bayesian view, where the Poisson rate according to which claims are generated for a customer is the outcome of a random variable specific to the customer.

Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot) is followed by a decline (noise). This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds), a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

A certain spectrum, indexed by a\in[0,\infty], of upper bounds P_a(X;x) on the tail probability P(X\geq x), with P_0(X;x)=P(X\geq x) and P_\infty(X;x) being the best possible exponential upper bound on P(X\geq x), is shown to be stable and monotonic in a, x, and X, where x is a real number and X is a random variable. The bounds P_a(X;x) are optimal values in certain minimization problems. The corresponding spectrum, also indexed by a\in[0,\infty], of upper bounds Q_a(X;p) on the (1-p)-quantile of X is stable and monotonic in a, p, and X, with Q_0(X;p) equal the largest (1-p)-quantile of X. In certain sense, the quantile bounds Q_a(X;p) are usually close enough to the true quantiles Q_0(X;p). Moreover, Q_a(X;p) is subadditive in X if a\geq 1, as well as positive-homogeneous and translation-invariant, and thus is a so-called coherent measure of risk. A number of other useful properties of the bounds P_a(X;x) and Q_a(X;p) are established. In particular, quite similarly to the bounds P_a(X;x) on the tail probabilities, the quantile bounds Q_a(X;p) are the optimal values in certain minimization problems. This allows for a comparatively easy incorporation of the bounds P_a(X;x) and Q_a(X;p) into more specialized optimization problems. It is shown that the minimization problems for which P_a(X;x) and Q_a(X;p) are the optimal values are in a certain sense dual to each other; in the case a=\infty this corresponds to the bilinear Legendre--Fenchel duality. In finance, the (1-p)-quantile Q_0(X;p) is known as the value-at-risk (VaR), whereas the value of Q_1(X;p) is known as the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and also as the expected shortfall (ES), average value-at-risk (AVaR), and expected tail loss (ETL). It is shown that the quantile bounds Q_a(X;p) can be used as measures of economic inequality. The spectrum parameter, a, may be considered an index of sensitivity to risk/inequality.

We present the optimal consumption and investment strategy for an investor, endowed with labor income, searching to maximize utility from consumption and terminal wealth when facing a binding capital constraint of a European (constraint on terminal wealth) or an American (constraint on the wealth process) type. In both cases, the optimal strategy is proven to be of the option-based portfolio insurance type. The optimal strategy combines a long position in the optimal unrestricted allocation with a put option. In the American case, where the investor is restricted to fulfill a capital guarantee at every intermediate time point over the interval of optimization, we prove that the investor optimally changes his budget constraint for the unrestricted allocation whenever the constraint is active. The strategy is explained in a step-by-step manner, and numerical illustrations are presented in order to support intuition and to compare the restricted optimal strategy with the unrestricted optimal counterpart.

We consider a one-period portfolio optimization problem under model uncertainty. For this purpose, we introduce a measure of model risk. We derive analytical results for this measure of model risk in the mean-variance problem assuming we have observations drawn from a normal variance mixture model. This model allows for heavy tails, tail dependence and leptokurtosis of marginals. The results show that mean-variance optimization is seriously compromised by model uncertainty, in particular, for non-Gaussian data and small sample sizes. To mitigate these shortcomings, we propose a method to adjust the sample covariance matrix in order to reduce model risk., Risks, 2 (3)

In this paper we introduce an intra-sector dynamic trading strategy that captures mean-reversion opportunities across liquid U.S. stocks. Our strategy combines the Avellaneda and Lee methodology (AL, Quant. Financ. 2010, 10, 761–782) within the Black and Litterman framework (BL, J. Fixed Income, 1991, 1, 7–18, Financ. Anal. J. 1992, 48, 28–43). In particular, we incorporate the s-scores and the conditional mean returns from the Orstein and Ulhembeck (Phys. Rev. 1930, 36, 823–841) process into BL. We find that our combined strategy ALBL has generated a 45% increase in Sharpe Ratio when compared to the uncombined AL strategy over the period from January 2, 2001 to May 27, 2010. These new indices, built to capture dynamic trading strategies, will definitely be an interesting addition to the growing hedge fund index offerings. This paper introduces our first “focused-core” strategy, namely, U.S. Equity Mean-Reversion.

Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are popular risk measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of a Neyman–Pearson type binary solution. We add a constraint on expected return to investigate the mean-CVaR portfolio selection problem in a dynamic setting: the investor is faced with a Markowitz type of risk reward problem at the final horizon, where variance as a measure of risk is replaced by CVaR. Based on the complete market assumption, we give an analytical solution in general. The novelty of our solution is that it is no longer the Neyman–Pearson type, in which the final optimal portfolio takes only two values. Instead, in the case in which the portfolio value is required to be bounded from above, the optimal solution takes three values, while in the case in which there is no upper bound, the optimal investment portfolio does not exist, though a three-level portfolio still provides a sub-optimal solution.

In a randomized trial of two interventions on employer health benefit decision-making, 156 employers in the evidence-based (EB) condition attended a two hour presentation reviewing scientific evidence demonstrating depression products that increase high quality treatment of depression in the workforce provide the employer a return on investment. One-hundred sixty-nine employers participating in the usual care (UC) condition attended a similar length presentation reviewing scientific evidence supporting healthcare effectiveness data and information set (HEDIS) monitoring. This study described the decision-making process in 264 (81.2%) employers completing 12 month follow-up. The EB intervention did not increase the proportion of employers who discussed depression products with others in the company (29.2% versus 32.1%, p &gt, 0.10), but it did significantly influence the content of the discussions that occurred. Discussion in EB companies promoted the capacity of a depression product to realize a return on investment (18.4% versus 4.7%, p = 0.05) and to improve productivity (47.4% versus 25.6%, p = 0.06) more often than discussions in UC companies. Almost half of EB and UC employers reported that return on investment has a large impact on health benefit decision-making. These results demonstrate the difficulty of influencing employer decisions about health benefits using group presentations.

The financial equilibrium of pension funds relies on the appropriate computation of retirement benefits, taking account of future payments and discount rates. Short-term errors in the commitment for retirement benefits, ill-suited investment in the stock market, or improper mixture with pay-as-you-go payments have long-term consequences and may lead the pension fund to insolvency. The differential equation governing the current assets shows the respective weights associated with the error on the interest rate, the error on the extra bonus, and the error made in forecasting mortality. These weights are estimated through simulations. A short follow-up is sufficient to estimate the three errors. A threshold for the extra interest rate to be earned on the financial market is given to counter-balance the extra bonus when mortality is forecast correctly.

Money markets offer monetary services and short-term finance in the capital market with the credit support of institutional sponsors. Investors finance money market instruments at low interest because their salability on short notice confers an implicit monetary services yield. Low interest attracts borrowers to money markets. The fragile equilibrium depends on collective confidence in the credit quality of instruments supplied to the market. Federal Reserve monetary and credit policies have influenced interest rates and credit intermediated in the money market, especially during the credit turmoil. Permissive regulatory rulings have allowed borrowers to take increasing advantage of low interest funding in money markets via securitization and structured finance—vastly increasing maturity, credit, and liquidity transformation through asset-backed commercial paper, repurchase agreements, and money market mutual funds. Funding in such instruments and runs on these instruments helped to create the credit cycle that culminated in the turmoil of 2007–2009.

Le courant Law and Finance souligne l’impact determinant du droit sur le financement et la gouvernance des entreprises. Il vehicule en outre l’idee de la superiorite du systeme de common law britannique sur le systeme de droit civil francais. Malgre son influence, ce courant de recherche repose sur des fondements theoriques et methodologiques fragiles. Cet article expose en detail les differentes critiques pouvant etre adressees a la these du Law and Finance. Sur la base de travaux recents, il prone une approche moins ambitieuse de l’interaction droit-finance reposant sur l’analyse microeconomique des relations entre les regles juridiques, les pratiques de gouvernance des entreprises et la forme des contrats de financement.

Le European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (esfrs) a reitere, dans son rapport du 20 novembre 2006 intitule « Basel II and the Scope for Prompt Corrective Action in Europe », sa proposition d’instaurer dans l’Union europeenne une politique d’actions correctives precoces sur un modele apparente au cas americain. Nous presentons dans cet article une analyse de cette proposition en montrant que son adoption aurait des implications sur les autres constituants du filet de securite financiere europeen allant bien au-dela de ce que reconnait le esfrc.

The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds., Risks, 3 (3)

In this paper, irrational exercise behavior of the buyer of an American put is characterized by a single parameter. We model irrational exercise rules as the first jump time of a point processes with stochastic intensity. By the rationality parameter, we parameterize a family of stochastic intensities that depends on the value of the put itself. We present a probabilistic proof that the value of the American put using the irrational exercise rule converges to the arbitrage-free price as the rationality parameter converges to infinity. Another application of this result is the penalty method for approximating the price of an American put.

The Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) IV, which constitutes the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), as well as the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD), is aimed at implementing Basel III in the European Union. Consequently, this CRD package, replaces Directives 2006/48 and 2006/49 with a Regulation and a Directive. The significance of such a move not only highlights the awareness of the importance of ensuring that Basel rules and regulations become more binding and enforceable, but also signals an era whereby the use of enforcement and supervisory tools such as Binding Technical Standards (BTS) are being introduced and generated by the European Banking Authority, as its plays a crucial role in the implementation of Basel III in the EU. Another significance of such a move towards Basel rules and regulations becoming more enforceable and binding lies in the facilitation of greater consistency, convergence and compliance, which the introduction of a Regulation, Binding Technical Standards, as well as other reporting requirements and provisions would generate in the implementation process. The increased relevance of Basel rules, and particularly Basel III rules, as well as their significance for the Eurozone, European Union institutions and European banks is hereby emphasised. This paper is also aimed at providing an analysis of the recent updates which have taken place in respect of the Basel III Leverage Ratio and the Basel III Supplementary Leverage Ratio – both in respect of recent amendments introduced by the Basel Committee and proposals introduced in the United States. As well as highlighting and addressing gaps which exist in the literature relating to liquidity risks, corporate governance and information asymmetries, by way of reference to pre-dominant based dispersed ownership systems and structures, as well as concentrated ownership systems and structures, this paper will also consider the consequences – as well as the impact - which Basel III, and in particular, the recent Basel Leverage ratios could have on the Eurozone, and European financial institutions. From this perspective, the rise of macro economics, micro economic inefficiency debates - as well as the validity of such debates will be considered.

Cooperatives represent an alternative to large-scale corporate farms and plantations as well as to independent unaffiliated small private farms. This paper presents a comparative modeling narrative on cooperative organizational forms’ potential impact on equitable rural development. This speaks to issues of both increasing the size of the economic pie and how this income is distributed. The case is made the cooperatives can potentially generate higher rates of growth and more equitable growth, even in competitive economic environments. An important type of cooperative that is focused upon in this paper is one based on the linking of smaller farms into a cooperative. Economies of scale and scope can be captured by the cooperatives and transaction costs can be reduced. Given cooperative governance, one would also expect higher levels of x-efficiency. Overall, cooperatives can generate relatively high incomes to cooperative members, whilst remaining competitive with the traditional privately owned large farms. Critical to the success of the cooperative, is a set rules and regulations that place them on a level playing field with the privately owned farm. In addition, the implementation and practice of cooperative principles is key to the success of the cooperative farm and rural cooperatives, more generally speaking.

Basic and fundamental issues which link financing and funding activities to financial regulation involve the problems of systemic risks and asymmetric information. In addition to addressing these issues, this paper will also consider other issues related to long term funding, which affect financial stability and development in Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) - namely inadequate regulatory frameworks, as well as constraints and accessibility to long term funding. By considering the recent developments with the Basel framework, it will seek to illustrate, by way of reference to studies, why low income developing countries, as well as selected emerging economies are still lagging behind in terms of the implementation of regulatory standards. It will also aim to demonstrate how these countries would largely benefit from effective implementation of these standards. Whilst aiming to facilitate means whereby sources of longer term funding could be enhanced, it will also consider the disadvantages and risks associated with longer term funding, challenges imposed by debt sustainability and propose alternative sources of funding. Transparency and disclosure, it will be highlighted, continue to generate severe obstacles to financial development and growth, as will be reflected from results of certain investigations.

Basic and fundamental issues which link financing and funding activities to financial regulation involve the problems of systemic risks and asymmetric information. In addition to addressing these issues, this paper will also consider other issues related to long term funding, which affect financial stability and development in Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) - namely inadequate regulatory frameworks, as well as constraints and accessibility to long term funding. By considering the recent developments with the Basel framework, it will seek to illustrate, by way of reference to studies, why low income developing countries, as well as selected emerging economies are still lagging behind in terms of the implementation of regulatory standards. It will also aim to demonstrate how these countries would largely benefit from effective implementation of these standards. Whilst aiming to facilitate means whereby sources of longer term funding could be enhanced, it will also consider the disadvantages and risks associated with longer term funding, challenges imposed by debt sustainability and propose alternative sources of funding. Transparency and disclosure, it will be highlighted, continue to generate severe obstacles to financial development and growth, as will be reflected from results of certain investigations.

As well as incorporating and exploring the role of formal analytical methods as a means of highlighting and discovering foundational and fundamental strategy issues, such as the determinants/causes of performance differences between banking institutions and other corporate structures across various jurisdictions, this paper aims to contribute to the literature on how limitations of empirical based research can be mitigated. Such causes of performance differences will incorporate a consideration of what these determinants are, how they operate, how performance should be measured, the extent to which such differences persist, the extent to which such performance measures should be relied upon. Performance measures to be incorporated in this paper will focus primarily on firm performance measures, such as leverage ratios, as well as a brief discussion of macro-economic indicators. From this perspective, the rise of macroeconomics, micro economic inefficiency debates - as well as the validity of such debates will be considered. In its aim to accentuate why many doubts have arisen as regards the reliability of the Basel III Leverage Ratio as a performance measure, and principally in respect of calibration issues, this paper will also provide an analysis of the recent updates which have taken place in respect of the Basel III Leverage Ratio and the Basel III Supplementary Leverage Ratio – both in respect of recent amendments introduced by the Basel Committee and proposals introduced in several jurisdictions such as the United Kingdom and the United States. The paper will also aim to highlight the role of enforcement and the enforceability of rules, ratios and standards, in ensuring that more comparable, consistent, objective and ultimately reliable performance measures are generated.

The study of random graphs has become very popular for real-life network modeling, such as social networks or financial networks. Inhomogeneous long-range percolation (or scale-free percolation) on the lattice Zd, d ≥ 1, is a particular attractive example of a random graph model because it fulfills several stylized facts of real-life networks. For this model, various geometric properties, such as the percolation behavior, the degree distribution and graph distances, have been analyzed. In the present paper, we complement the picture of graph distances and we prove continuity of the percolation probability in the phase transition point. We also provide an illustration of the model connected to financial networks., Risks, 3 (1)

This paper compares two different types of private retirement plans from the perspective of a representative beneficiary: a defined benefit (DB) and a defined contribution (DC) plan. While salary risk is the main common risk factor in DB and DC pension plans, one of the key differences is that DB plans carry portability risks, whereas DC plans bear asset price risk. We model these tradeoffs explicitly in this paper and compare these two plans in a utility-based framework. Our numerical analysis focuses on answering the question of when the beneficiary is indifferent between the DB and DC plan. Most of our results confirm the findings in the existing literature, among which, e.g., portability losses considerably reduce the relative attractiveness of the DB plan. However, we also find that the attractiveness of the DB plan can decrease in the level of risk aversion, which is inconsistent with the existing literature.

The U.S standard leverage ratio, which is not as stringent as the U.S Supplementary Leverage Ratio, did not include Off Balance Sheet exposures - unlike the Basel leverage ratio. Hence the 3% Supplementary Leverage Ratio was established as part of measures to facilitate the inclusion of Off Balance Sheet exposures in July 2013 - even though many still consider the scope of such inclusion as not being extensive enough - since Secured Financing Transaction Exposures are still excluded. Furthermore, the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio increased the 3% leverage ratio to 5% (a 2% buffer) for globally systemic important banks (GSIBs) bank holding companies and 6 % for their banking subsidiaries. In respect of securities financing transaction exposures, however, U.S banks are considered to enjoy competitive advantage, since the exclusion of such exposures still persist - even though it is also argued that recent liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratio provisions should serve to address these exposures - this also being in line with the complementary functions of liquidity standards and leverage ratios within the risk-based capital adequacy framework. As well as contributing to the extant literature on supplementary leverage ratios, this paper will seek to illustrate why calibration between the risk capital adequacy framework, liquidity standards, and Basel leverage ratio is even more important than merely a focus on the relationship between the risk capital adequacy framework and the Basel leverage ratio. Meanwhile as regards Europe, there are also concerns relating to sovereign credit risks and the “inadequate pricing” of such risks which results in under capitalisation of banks, as well as potential consequences relating to serious distortions in financial stability whose effects could have repercussions extending beyond the Euro zone and globally. This paper considers two headings which have generated controversial discussions - particularly in respect of Basel III leverage ratio implementation, namely, under capitalisation of banks and the issue of calibration. It aims to illustrate why these constitute areas which are still in need of redress - even though tremendous efforts have been made to align the Basel III Leverage Ratio with the Supplementary Leverage Ratios. The paper will also demonstrate that whilst there are concerns related to the issue of calibration, certain jurisdictions such as the UK, have also introduced supplementary leverage ratios - as well as considered alternatives to the Basel leverage ratio.

We identify restrictions on a decision maker’s utility function that are both necessary and sufficient to preserve dominance reasoning in each of two versions of the Two-Envelope Paradox (TEP). For the classical TEP, the utility function must satisfy a certain recurrence inequality. For the St. Petersburg TEP, the utility function must be bounded above asymptotically by a power function, which can be tightened to a constant. By determining the weakest conditions for dominance reasoning to hold, the article settles an open question in the research literature. Remarkably, neither constant-bounded utility nor finite expected utility is necessary for resolving the classical TEP, instead, finite expected utility is both necessary and sufficient for resolving the St. Petersburg TEP.

We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: (1) longer horizon risk factors (value, growth, etc.) increase noise trades and trading costs, (2) arbitrary risk factors can neutralize alpha, (3) “standardized” industries are artificial and insufficiently granular, (4) normalization of style risk factors is lost for the trading universe, (5) diversifying risk models lowers P&amp, L correlations, reduces turnover and market impact, and increases capacity. We discuss various aspects of custom risk model building.

The Business Indicator approach has been identified by the Basel Committee as the most suitable replacement for the Gross Income approach, since it addresses most of the Gross Income’s weaknesses, as well as possesses certain attributes which were highlighted to have been at the heart of the recent Financial Crisis. It had been highlighted by the Committee that weaknesses of the simpler approaches to operational risk, were attributed and generated principally from the use of Gross Income (GI) as a proxy indicator for operational risk exposure. This paper highlights rationales for revisions to the present framework of approaches to operational risk and why adjustments to the simpler approaches have become necessary. Further, as well as accentuating on why issues relating to calibration and adequate focus on Pillar III of Basel II, namely, market discipline, continue to dominate and feature as areas in need of greater attention, the paper also seeks to demonstrate why Pillar III may be that area which requires greater focus - where matters relating to goals of consistency, comparability and simplicity are involved. As well as consolidating on why gaps still persist in relation to disclosure requirements relating to operational risks, the paper will, more importantly, propose means of mitigating such gaps.

We investigate a portfolio optimization problem under the threat of a market crash, where the interest rate of the bond is modeled as a Vasicek process, which is correlated with the stock price process. We adopt a non-probabilistic worst-case approach for the height and time of the market crash. On a given time horizon [0, T], we then maximize the investor’s expected utility of terminal wealth in the worst-case crash scenario. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the worst-case optimal portfolio strategy for the class of HARA (hyperbolic absolute risk aversion) utility functions.

In this article, we consider the generalized Erlang risk model and its dual model. By using a conditional measure-preserving correspondence between the two models, we derive an identity for two interesting conditional probabilities. Applications to the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin are also discussed.

We study the optimal insurance design problem. This is a risk sharing problem between an insured and an insurer. The main novelty in this paper is that we study this optimization problem under a risk-adjusted premium calculation principle for the insurance cover. This risk-adjusted premium calculation principle uses the cost-of-capital approach as it is suggested (and used) by the regulator and the insurance industry., Risks, 2 (2)

We study the recursive moments of aggregate discounted claims, where the dependence between the inter-claim time and the subsequent claim size is considered. Using the general expression for the m-th order moment proposed by Léveillé and Garrido (Scand. Actuar. J. 2001 , 2, 98–110), which takes the form of the Volterra integral equation (VIE), we used the method of successive approximation to derive the Neumann series of the recursive moments. We then compute the first two moments of aggregate discounted claims, i.e., its mean and variance, based on the Neumann series expression, where the dependence structure is captured by a Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) copula, a Gaussian copula and a Gumbel copula with exponential marginal distributions. Insurance premium calculations with their figures are also illustrated.

This paper provides a new interpretation of the early rise of rating agencies in the United States (initially known as ‘Mercantile Agencies’). We explain this American exceptionality through an inductive approach that revisits the conventional parallel with the UK. In contrast with earlier narratives that have emphasized the role of Common Law and the greater understanding of American judges that would have supported the rise of an ethos of ‘transparency’, we argue that Mercantile Agencies prospered as a remedy to deficient bankruptcy law and weak protection of creditor rights in the US. The result was to raise the value of the nation-wide registry of defaulters which the Mercantile Agencies managed. This ensured the Agencies’ profitability and endowed them with resources to buy their survival in a legal environment that remained stubbornly hostile.

Whilst the benefits and potentials of the dual roles assumed by external auditors are emphasized, as well as the need to ensure that safeguards operating to guard against a compromise of objectivity and independence are in place, this paper also highlights the fact that even though such dual roles are appropriate in certain cases – as illustrated by justifications for limitations imposed by the Sarbanes Oxley Act and other relevant and applicable legislation – instances also persist where section 201 of Sarbanes-Oxley, with regard to internal audit outsourcing, may have been over-reactionary and may continue to hinder both companies and their auditors.

The predecessor paper to this publication, “Volcker/Vickers Hybrid”: The Liikanen Report and Justifications For Ring Fencing and Separate Legal Entities, considered the merits, objectives and cost-benefit attributes of respective models associated with the Vickers Report, Liikanen Report and Volckers Rule – by way of reference to the degree of separation of legal entities or banking activities involved, as well as whether an outright ban or prohibition on proprietary trading is involved. This paper is aimed at highlighting why ring fencing not only presents a more feasible and cost effective option to other models, but also why its degree of flexibility provides the more appropriate balance in a financial environment whose trend is increasingly inclined towards conglomeration.

The Basel III Leverage Ratio, as originally agreed upon in December 2010, has recently undergone revisions and updates – both in relation to those proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision – as well as proposals introduced in the United States. Whilst recent proposals have been introduced by the Basel Committee to improve, particularly, the denominator component of the Leverage Ratio, new requirements have been introduced in the U.S to upgrade and increase these ratios, and it is those updates which relate to the Basel III Supplementary Leverage Ratio that have primarily generated a lot of interests. This is attributed not only to concerns that many subsidiaries of US Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) will find it cumbersome to meet such requirements, but also to potential or possible increases in regulatory capital arbitrage: a phenomenon which plagued the era of the original 1988 Basel Capital Accord and which also partially provided impetus for the introduction of Basel II. This paper is aimed at providing an analysis of the most recent updates which have taken place in respect of the Basel III Leverage Ratio and the Basel III Supplementary Leverage Ratio – both in respect of recent amendments introduced by the Basel Committee and revisions introduced in the United States. Amongst these notable developments, the Final or rather nearly finalised Standard issued by the Basel Committee in January 2014, as well as the 2014 U.S Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratios are worth mentioning. Sometimes the competitive disadvantages resulting from over compliance or stringent measures may generate costs which are actually minimal when compared to those costs which could potential arise in a scenario where economic disruptions and crises do occur where such „over compliance“ measures are not implemented. So when do measures become over-compliant? What may be regarded as over-compliance for a particular jurisdiction may not necessarily be the case for another. Conversely what may be required for minimal compliance purposes in certain jurisdictions may prove inadequate for certain major economies.

Whilst economic, political linkages and relationships constitute the theme of this paper, the paper also attempts to address why central bank independence still lacks certain vital attributes which embody adequate governance and accountability mechanisms - which are necessary if better results in relation to longer term economic and political objectives, in particular, are to be achieved. From this perspective, the growing importance of the shift to a focus on distinguishing between micro and macro prudential regulation is illustrated. The need for such distinction is not just evidenced through the creation of agencies responsible for such affairs within particular jurisdictions which are considered in this paper, but also through the increased realisation and need for greater focus on decision making responsibilities which are to be assigned to political and economic entities at supra national levels. Financial stability, it appears, has more to do with a mere focus on longer term objectives. Financial stability is also concerned with the ability to sustain long term policy objectives whilst being flexible enough to respond effectively to short term unpredictabilities.