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We study the impact of the employment-based health insurance system on aggregate labor supply in a general equilibrium life cycle model with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risks in both income and medical expenses. We find that employment-based health insurance provides Americans with an extra incentive to work and is an important reason why they work much more hours than Europeans. In contrast to Europeans, who get universal health insurance from the government, most working-age Americans get health insurance through their employers. Since medical expenses are large and volatile, and there is no good alternative available in the private market, health insurance from employers can be highly valuable to risk-averse individuals (much more than its actuarially fair cost), thus providing them with extra incentive to work. We calibrate the benchmark model to match the US system using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey dataset. The results of our quantitative experiments suggest that different health insurance systems account for more than half of the difference in aggregate hours that Americans and Europeans work. Furthermore, our model can also match several other relevant empirical observations, that is, the different employment rates and the different shares of full-time/part-time workers in the U.S. and Europe. When our model is extended to include the different tax rates in the U.S. and Europe, a main existing explanation for the difference in aggregate labor supply, the extended model can account for a major portion of the difference in aggregate hours that Americans and Europeans work.

The paper uses the a multi-region (reforming euro-area region, rest of euro area, rest of world) version of the QUEST macroeconomic model to analyse the impact of structural reforms on economic activity in a macroeconomic environment in which the zero bound on monetary policy rates is temporarily binding. Following Eggertsson et al. (2014), the simulations focus on reforms with deflationary impact, namely reforms that increase competition and reduce mark-ups and labour costs in the economy. The results suggest that the short-term output response to reforms is less positive at the zero bound compared to 'normal times' and can indeed be negative. Negative net effects are small and rather short-lived, however. Simulations that compare current and pre-announced future reforms question the idea that commitment to future reforms would improve economic conditions compared to reform implementation at the zero bound. According to political economy models, the zero bound may reduce reform intensity by increasing the short-term cost of implementation.

To what extent is public debt private liquidity? Much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households. This is the case for ad-hoc debt limits, which are exogenous to public policy. Instead, if debt limits are fully endogenous, as e.g. in the case of the natural borrowing limit, public debt has no impact. We assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes. Using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks, we show that public debt provides some liquidity, but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad-hoc. We show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions, such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity.

In November 2014, investments in capital assets amounted to 95.2%, while in January–November 2014, to 97.2% on the respective index of the previous year. A long-term reduction of the volumes of building jobs may result in a dramatic drop in business activities in the business and investment complex early in 2015. The situation is made worse due to a sudden surge of the rate of inflation and growth in the cost of credit resources which situation limits the activities of private investors on the market.

По предварительной оценке Минэкономразвития России, ВВП в I кв. 2015 г. составил 97,8% от показателя I кв. 2014 г. На внутренний рынок в текущем году негативное влияние оказало одновременное сокращение потребительского спроса и инвестиций в основной капитал. Индекс оборота розничной торговли в I кв. 2015 г. составил 93,3% и инвестиции в основной капитал 94,0% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом предыдущего года. Ситуация в экономике осложняется падением реальной заработной платы на 8,3% и ростом безработицы на 1,4% по сравнению с I кв. 2014 г.

В текущем году сокращение внутреннего спроса оказывало негативное влияние на внутренний рынок. Индекс оборота розничной торговли в июле 2015 г. в годовом выражении составил 90,8%, платных услуг населению – 97,5% и инвестиции в основной капитал – 91,5%. В июле 2015 г. выпуск обрабаты- вающего производства снизился до 92,9% по сравнению с июлем прошлого года. Негативное влияние на динамику обрабатывающего производства оказывает сокращение выпуска капитальных товаров.

The volume of investments in fi xed assets over the period of January–July 2015 in real terms amounted to 94.1%; the index for July dropped to 91.5% on the same month of last year. The structure of sources of investment fi nancing displayed a strengthening trend towards increasing the share of equity and federal budget funding. Over the fi rst half-year of 2015, the decline of investment in fi xed assets demonstrated by the segment represented by big and medium-sized enterprises amounted to 7.3% on the corresponding period of last year.

По данным Росстата, ВВП в I квартале 2015 г. составил 98,1% от показателя I квартала 2014 г. Нега- тивное влияние на экономическую динамику в текущем году оказывает сокращение внутреннего спро- са и усиление спада потребительского рынка. Индекс оборота розничной торговли в апреле 2015 г. составил 90,2% и инвестиции в основной капитал 95,2% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом пре- дыдущего года. Ситуация в экономике осложняется падением реальной заработной платы на 13,2% и ростом безработицы на 8,4% по сравнению с апрелем 2014 г.

12 марта 2014 г. со стороны ОЭСР был приостановлен процесс присоединения России к этой орга- низации. Долгая история сотрудничества России с ОЭСР, – сначала в формате в научно-экспертнойподдержки внедрения общепризнанных стандартов ОЭСР с целью развития отдельных институтов национальной экономики, преимущественно в сфере налогообложения, антимонопольной и корпора- тивной политики, затем, с мая 2007 г., формально определенный процесс присоединения, когда на за- седании Совета ОЭСР было принято решение о приглашении России в качестве полноправного члена ОЭСР, – демонстрирует значимость взаимодействия России с данной организацией.

In H1 2015, business activities in the Russian economy were determined by weakening of the external and internal demand. In H1 2015, a decrease of 5.4% and 8.0% in investments in capital assets and the volume of the retail trade, respectively, as compared to the respective period of the previous year produced a negative eff ect on the domestic market. In Q2, the situation became more complicated due to a greater slump in the industry to 4.9%, including the manufacturing industry to 5.1% as compared to the indices of the previous year. A drop in real wages and salaries with a consolidating trend of growth in general and registered unemployment is an alarming factor.

Инвестиции в основной капитал в мае 2015 г. составили 92,4%, а за январь–май текущего года – 95,2% от соответствующих показателей 2014 г. Продолжающееся уже шестой квартал подряд сокраще- ние инвестиций определяется снижением деловой активности со второй половины 2012 г. и усугу- бляется ухудшением макроэкономической ситуации в начале 2015 г. (в результате чего продолжала сокращаться доля привлеченных средств в структуре источников финансирования инвестиций), ос- ложнением бюджетной ситуации в регионах и сокращением внутреннего платежеспособного спроса (что ведет к снижению инвестиций в строительстве, торговле и сфере платных услуг). Особую тре- вогу вызывает нестабильность инвестиционного спроса в сырьевом секторе обрабатывающей про- мышленности, оказывавшем позитивное влияние на динамику отечественного производства в 1 кв. 2015 г. В то же время инвестиционная ситуация в машиностроительном секторе демонстрирует определенный потенциал импортозамещения

Early in 2015, a further drop in investment activities was registered. In January–February 2015, investments in capital assets and the volumes of jobs in the building industry amounted to 93.6% and 96.7%, respectively, as compared to the relevant indices of the previous year.

In May 2015, investments in capital assets amounted to 92.4%, while in January–May 2015, to 95.2% as compared to respective indices of 2014. A drop in investments which continues for six quarters running has been determined by a decline of business activities since H2 2012 and made worse by the macroeconomic situation early in 2015 (due to that the share of borrowed funds in the pattern of sources of funding of investments kept decreasing), complicated budget situation in regions and reduction of domestic solvent demand (which situation results in a drop in investments in building, trade and the sphere of paid services). Instability of investment demand in the primary sector of the manufacturing industry which had a positive eff ect on the dynamics of the domestic production in Q1 2015 is of a particular concern. At the same time, the investment situation in the engineering sector demonstrates a certain potential of import substitution.

Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effects of this uncertainty, a stochastic dynamic growth model with the public sector is examined. It is shown that deterministic excessive red tape and corruption deteriorate the growth potential through income redistribution and public sector inefficiencies. Most importantly, it is demonstrated that the increase in corruption via higher uncertainty exerts adverse effects on capital accumulation, thus leading to lower growth rates.

In a quantitative model of Social Security with endogenous health, I argue that Social Security increases the aggregate health spending of the economy because it redistributes resources to the elderly whose marginal propensity to spend on health is high. I show by using computational experiments that the expansion of US Social Security can account for over a third of the dramatic rise in US health spending from 1950 to 2000. In addition, Social Security has a spill-over effect on Medicare. As Social Security increases health spending, it also increases the payments from Medicare, thus raising its financial burden.

In April 2014, the economic situation was determined both by slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand and a drop in investment demand. Investments in capital assets in April 2014 and January–April amounted to 97.3% and 95.7%, respectively, against the respective indices of the previous year. A decrease in growth rates of retail trade sales volumes year on year to 2.6% was determined by dramatic slowdown of households’ real income and real wages and salaries. After a drop in January, year on year indices of industry demonstrated growth in February–April 2014. In April 2014, year on year growth rates of industrial production amounted to 2.4%, while in manufacturing and production of primary products, to 3.9% and 1.7%, respectively. However, despite the fact that the situation has improved to some extent the expected growth in industry in 2014 will amount by the estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation to 1.0%, which is justified by the expected 2.4% drop in investment activities in 2014.

Christopher D. Carroll is an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University Baltimore and research associate at NBER. He obtained his BA from Harvard University in 1986 and his PhD from MIT in 1990. He first worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board and later took a job at Johns Hopkins University. He was also a member of the Council of Economic Advisors in 1997-1998 and 2009-2010. His research field is macroeconomics, in particular the consumption and saving decisions of households. He is particularly interested in how theoretical models can be reconciled with household and aggregate data. He has several publications in leading economic journals, and he is also editor of the entries of Encyclopedia Britannica on consumption. He received the TIAA-CREF/Samuelson award in 1998 for his work on the precautionary saving motive.

Fixed investment in real terms stood at 97.42% in the period of January to July 2014 compared to the corresponding period in 2013. The structure of sources of fi nancing saw an upward trend towards the formation of a bigger share of equity at enterprises as the share of federal budget resources tended to diminish. In H1 2014, fi xed investment stopped falling in the segment of large and medium-sized enterprises, up by 2.8% relative to the corresponding period of the previous year, although it couldn’t off set entirely the negative growth dynamics observed in the preceding year. Investment upsurge in industrial and transport sectors had a positive eff ect on the dynamics of investment at large enterprises in H1 2014. Fixed investment kept diminishing in the investment and construction sector.

GDP advanced 0.8% in H1 2014 relative to the corresponding period of 2013, according to the preliminary data from Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service). The products and services output index by basic type of economic activity remained near a positive value of 100.3% on an annualized basis in July 2014 compared to July 2013. The industrial production index stood at 101.5% in July 2014, including the manufacturing industry (102.4%) and the mineral extraction sector (100.2%). Reduction in both exports of traditional raw materials and their by-products, and the scale of output in the construction and investment sector had an adverse eff ect on the dynamics of general economic indicators..

In January–May 2014, capital investments in real terms amounted to 96.2% on the respective index of the previous year. In the patiern of sources of investment funding, the share of own funds and banks’ participation increased with a reduction of investment of federal budget funds. In Q1 2014, in the segment of large and midsized enterprises a drop in capital investments stopped and they increased by 1,8% as compared to the respective period of the previous year. In Q1 2014, a positive effect on the dynamics of investments by large enterprises was produced by growth in investments in the primary sector (5.4%), manufacturing (2.6%), oil refi ning (35.1%) and transport and communications (10.5%).

The situation in the investment sphere remains tense despite the fact that in November 2013 growth rates of investments in capital assets entered the positive zone and amounted to 100.2% year on year after a drop in the previous three months. In January-November 2013, investments in capital assets amounted to 99.2% of the level of the respective period of 2012. Despite a low base of December 2012, on the basis of the results of 2013 annual growth rates can hardly exceed those of 2012. Reduction of volumes of building with growing rates of commissioning of housing and reduction of volumes of incomplete building may result in a sharp drop in business activities in the building and investment complex early in 2014.

Falling investments in fixed assets in early 2014 were the result of the negative tendency which had formed in the construction investment complex in 2013. Investments in fixed assets in January-February this year were 95.0% while the volume of construction works was 96.2% of the corresponding indicator for last year.

The model of the macroeconomic stabilisation pentagon allows for a quick insight into the most important macroeconomic indicators of an economy in question. On the basis of this concept - comparing pentagrams for particular years - changes of the economic condition of countries can be examined. Moreover, the analysis of each of the adopted criteria allows for the evaluation of achievement of particular goals by a country in terms of its economic policy. The aim of this article is to describe the condition of Central and Eastern Europe countries in the years 2007-2010. The economies analysed were compared at two levels. The first level concerned the macroeconomic situation of all economies in particular years just before and during the global economic crisis. At the second level, the changes in the analysed indicators in particular economies of Central and Eastern Europe were compared. The results of the analysis shall contribute to the formulation of conclusions concerning the influence of the financial crisis upon the macroeconomic situation of the CEE countries.

In November 2014, a trend of weak economic dynamics intensifi ed. In November 2014, the industrial production index amounted to 99.6%, including 97.0% in manufacturing as compared to the previous year. Investments in capital assets fell by 4.8% as compared to November 2013; irregularity in fulfi llment of jobs in building intensifi ed. The situation is complicated by slowdown of growth rates of households’ real incomes by 4.7% year on year in November 2014 and growth in the rate of inflation to 9.1% as compared to November 2013.

In January 2015, a drop of 5.1% and 6.3% year-on-year in retail trade volume and investments in capital assets, respectively, had a considerable eff ect on the domestic market. The dynamics of the consumer market was determined by a simultaneous drop of 5.5% and 3.5% in demand on food products and non-food products, respectively, as compared to January 2014. In January 2015, the market of investment goods and services was characterized by a decrease of 3.5% year on year in building. In January 2015, industrial production increased by 0.9% year on year with growth of 1.5% in the primary sector and a drop of 0.1% in manufacturing. In January 2015, the total number of the unemployed and the number of the offi cially registered unemployed increased by 3% and 2.6%, respectively, but the above indices remained much below the respective values of January 2014.

На внутренний рынок России в текущем году негативное влияние оказало одновременное сокращение по- требительского и инвестиционного спроса. Индекс оборота розничной торговли в феврале 2015 г. в го- довом выражении составил 92,3%, платных услуг населению – 98,5% и инвестиций в основной капитал – 93,5%. Начало 2015 г. характеризуется резким ухудшение показателей реальных доходов населения.

According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in Q1 2015 GDP amounted to 97.8% against the index of Q1 2014. A simultaneous shrinkage of consumer demand and investments in capital assets had a negative eff ect on the domestic market in 2015. In Q1 2015, the retail trade index and the index of investments in capital assets amounted to 93.3% and 94.0%, respectively, as compared to the same period of the previous year. The situation in the economy is complicated by a 8.3% drop in real wages and salaries and a 1.4% growth in the rate of unemployment as compared to Q1 2014.

In early 2015, Russia’s domestic market was strongly aff ected by the simultaneous shrinkage of consumer and investment demand. In February 2015, the retail trade turnover index amounted to 92.3% in annual terms; the index of paid services delivered to the population amounted to 98.5%; and the index of investment in fi xed assets – to 93.5% in annual terms. The beginning of 2015 was characterized by a profound deterioration of the indices of the population’s real incomes.

This year, Russia’s domestic market was operating under the negative eff ects of shrinking domestic demand. In July 2015, the retail trade turnover index amounted to 90.8%; the index of paid services delivered to the popula- tion – to 97.5%; and the index of investment in fi xed assets – to 91.5% in annual terms. Over the same month, output in the processing industries dropped to 92.9% on July 2014. The growth rates in the processing industries were negatively infl uenced by the shrinking output of capital goods.

Russia’s GDP in Q1 2015 stood at 98.1% compared to that for Q1 2014, according to the data provided by the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat). The economic dynamics in 2015 are aff ected by weakening domestic demand and the increased downturn in the consumer market. The retail turnover index in April 2015 stood at 90.2% and fi xed investments at 95.2% compared with that for the corresponding period last year. The economic situation has been deteriorating through a 13.2% decline in real wages and a 8.4% increase of unemployment rate compared to that for April 2014..

According to the preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2014 GDP annual growth rates amounted to 100.6% as compared to the previous year. Slowdown of growth rates of the Russian economy is justifi ed by low internal demand. Investments in capital assets fell by 2.5%, while growth rates of the consumer market slowed down to 2.5% as compared to 2013. In 2014, a positive trend was a speed-up of growth rates of industrial production to 101.7% with advanced growth in manufacturing (102.1% on the previous year). A negative factor of 2014 was a drop in households’ real income due to growth of 11.4% in the consumer price index in 2014. The situation on the labor market is getting worse: in December 2014 as compared to the previous month the total number of the unemployed rose by 0.9%, while the number of offi cially registered unemployed, by 7.5%.

The slowdown of the economic growth in April 2013 was determined by the slackening of the investment demand dynamics. In April 2013 the investments in fixed assets made 99.3%, in January– April – 99.8% of the corresponding indices of the previous year. However, the indices of the industrial production in March–April 2013 in annual terms demonstrate some growth after the recession of January–February. The growth rates of the industrial production this April in annual terms made 2.3%.

In Q1 2013 the slowdown of the economic growth was determined both by the decrease in the external demand by 4.6% versus the corresponding period of the previous year and the sudden weakening of the internal demand dynamics. In Q1 2013 the indices of the industrial growth and the volumes of investments in fi xed assets remained at the level of the previous year. The rates of retail trade turnover in Q1 2013 nearly halved as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year and made 3.9% while the growth rates of the real disposable incomes went up to 5.3% versus 1.6% a year ago. The level of the unemployment in Q1 2013 remained below the indices of the corresponding period of the previous year but exceeded the indices of Q4 2012

In January thru May 2013 capital investments in real terms stood at 99.6% on a year-on-year basis. An uptrend in corporate own funds and federal budget funds was boosted in the structure of sources of investment financing. In Q1 2013, investments dropped in real terms on a year-on-year basis by 11.4% in the extractive industries, 13.9% in the production and distribution of electric power, gas and water, and 19.1% in transport sector. The preceding-year uptrend in investments remained unchanged in manufacturing industry, but output declined due to ineffective usage of investments.

At the beginning of 2013 the economic activity continued to slow down – the process that started in 2012. In February 2013 the investments in fixed assets growth rates made only 100.3% in annual Terms.

This book review presents a summary of “Fault Lines : How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy” by Raghuram Rajan, who puts forward a clear and cogent account of the latest global financial crisis. With the historical perspective he adopts, Rajan digs in deeper than the shallow surface to reveal the growing economic stresses in both the United States and the rest of the world that were overlooked at the time but came together eventually to trigger the crisis that drifted world economies into prolonged recessions. While elucidating the roots of the crisis, the book insightfully explains how structural problems piled up, how households, banks, and politicians acted on self-interest ignoring rising risks, and how policy makers stayed reluctant to act. Rajan emphasizes the importance of drawing right lessons out of the crisis to ensure a more balanced world economy and restore lasting prosperity on a global scale.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) once again became a newsworthy topic in the US media, this time during the contested Spring 2008 Democratic primary for the US presidency, particularly from campaign talking-points originating within Midwestern Rust-Belt states. Although the merits of NAFTA were central to the dialogue during this campaign season, similar debate did not warrant deliberation during the time of the general election in the Fall of 2008. An examination of media coverage dedicated to NAFTA in the lead-up to the past three American general elections confirmed these tendencies. Even though the Rust Belt, which is considered the key political toss-up region in the for the US presidency, has the most at stake concerning NAFTA’s effects, it remains to be seen if the trade pact will elicit debate from the presidential candidates during the Fall election in 2012.

Today, the world economy is at the brink of a major recession at zero lower bound. The recession has been fomented by the underconsumption induced by (i) the increasing income inequality, which is inherent in the neoliberal policymaking followed the last third of a century, and (ii) the declining wages being brought about by the increasing globalization and hence, international competition. And, the zero lower bound has been the aftermath of continuous interest rate reductions to confront the latent recessionary trends by stimulating investment but by increasing at the same time the prices of assets, bonds, and housing inciting several kinds of “bubbles” and inhibiting investment. The policy of “quantitative easing” in the place of interest rate reductions, a surrogate only of the latter has proved to be so far, for the simple reason that the money injections involved to spur business and household demand, are channeled towards the banking system, which withholds and does not pass on the money to the public. A money gift policy in the sense of transferring money directly to the public as a permanent asset for the private sector but not liability for the public sector, activating subsequently the Pigou effect, is advocated herein to be a viable policy alternative out of the current deadlock, ceteris paribus.

La microfinance a fait l’objet d’un colloque organisé par la Banque de France en juillet 2011. Les participants ont souligné son utilité comme outil d’inclusion financière, de développement économique et de lutte contre la pauvreté en s’appuyant sur les expériences des pays du Sud et ont proposé des pistes de réflexion pour le financement de son développement, ainsi que sur la pertinence et les modalités de sa régulation.

The Banque de France organised a symposium on microfinance in July 2011. Based on the experience of Southern countries, the participants stressed the usefulness of microfinance as an instrument for financial inclusion, economic development and poverty reduction. They proposed several avenues for financing its development and discussed ways to regulate it and their relevance.

Промышленное производство в феврале 2014 г. в годовом выражении увеличилось на 2,1%, в том числе обрабатывающее производство -на 3,4%. Однако производство машин и оборудования упало на 11,4%, строительных материалов – на 2,0% , работ в строительстве на 2,4% в годовом выражении. Резко замедлился спрос на услуги. Индексы оборота розничной торговли и платных услуг населению в январе–феврале 2014 г. к соответствующим показателям предыдущего года составили 103,2% и 101,0%, годом ранее аналогичные показатели были на 0,6 п.п. и 3,3 п.п. выше.

Экономическая динамика в I квартале 2014 г. определялась ростом потребительского спроса и падением инвестиционного. Инвестиции в основной капитал по итогам I квартала 2014 г. снизились на 4,8% относительно аналогичного периода предыдущего года при одновременном сокращении объемов работ в строительстве и производства капитальных товаров. Темпы роста оборота розничной торговли в I квартале 2014 г. составил 103,5%, что на 0,5 п.п. ниже аналогичного показателя 2013 г. Позитивное влияние на экономическую ситуацию в январе–марте текущего года оказало восстановление промышленного роста за счет увеличения выпуска обрабатывающего производства на 2,4% по сравнению с январем–мартом предшествующего года. В государственных учреждениях службы занятости населения на конец марта 2014 г. в качестве безработных было зарегистрировано 941 тыс. чел., что на 13,2% меньше по сравнению с мартом 2013 г..

In the fi rst fi ve months of 2014, the economic situation was determined by slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand and a drop in investments. In January–May 2014, investments in capital assets decreased by 3.8% against the index of the respective period of the previous year. In January–May 2014, the retail trade volume increased by 3.1% against 3.9% a year earlier. A positive contribution to the dynamics of the economic development is made by recovery of output growth in manufacturing. In January–May 2014, manufacturing output index amounted to 103.2% against 98.9% a year before with a high diff erentiation of production rates in diff erent sectors which situation is primarily justified by prevalence of negative trends in production of capital goods.

In January–September 2014, the index of physical volumes of GDP amounted to 100.8% on the respective period of 2013. The positive factors behind positive quarterly dynamics of GDP are, fi rstly, the speed-up of growth rates of manufacturing industries to 3.6% year-on-year in October 2014 against 0.6% a year before, secondly, growth in consumer demand though its rates are much lower than the index of October 2013 and, thirdly, growth in the net export despite a decrease in the foreign trade turnover. In January–October 2014, a 2.5% reduction in investments in capital assets on the respective period of the previous year had a negative eff ect on the domestic market.

In February 2014, industrial production increased by 2.1% on an annualised basis, including a 3.4% increase in manufacturing. However, the production of machines and equipment decreased by 11.4%, construction materials, by 2.0%, and construction works, by 2.4% in annual terms. Demand for services slowed sharply. In January-February 2014 the indices of retail turnover and paid services provided to the public were 103.2% and 101.0% of the corresponding figures for the previous year, whilst, in the year before that, these indicators had been 0.6 and 3.3 percentage points higher.

In January 2014, the macroeconomic situation is under the effect of the same factors which determined the economic dynamics in 2013. In January 2014, a drop of 7.0% and 5.5% in investments in capital assets and the volume of building work, respectively, against January 2013 had a substantial impact on the domes?? c market. Also, slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand on the commodity market (to 102.4% against 104.4% a year earlier) and the market of paid services (to 101.6% against 105.6%) was observed.

Экономическая ситуация в апреле 2014 г. определялась замедлением темпов роста потребительского спроса и спадом инвестиционного. Инвестиции в основной капитал составили в апреле 2014 г. 97,3%, а в январе – апреле – 95,7% от соответствующих показателей предыдущего года. Сокращение темпа прироста оборота розничной торговли в годовом выражении до 2,6% обусловлено резким замедлением реальных доходов населения и реальной заработной платы. После январского падения в феврале – апреле 2014 г. индексы промышленности в годовом выражении демонстрируют рост. Темп прироста промышленного производства в апреле т.г. в годовом выражении составил 2,4%, обрабатывающего производства – 3,9% и добычи полезных ископаемых – 1,7%. Однако, несмотря на некоторое улучшение ситуации, ожидаемый рост промышленности в 2014 г. составит, по оценке Минэкономразвития России, 1,0%, что обусловлено прогнозируемым в текущем году снижением инвестиционной активности на 2,4%.

On the basis of the results of January–September 2013, the index of the physical volume of GDP amounted to 101.3% against the respective period of the previous year. With the existing dynamics of investment and con¬sumer demand, slowdown of growth rates of households’ income and decrease in the financial performance of enterprises and entities, on the basis of the results of 2013 the expected growth rates of GDP will amount to 103–104%. From June 201, growth in the rate of unemployment renewed which factor would make the situation more complicated on the labor market early in 2014.

In the 1st quarter of 2014, economic dynamics was determined by growth in consumer demand and a drop in investment demand. On the basis of the results of the 1st quarter of 2014, investments in capital assets fell by 4.8% on the respective period of the previous year with simultaneous reduction of volumes of jobs in building and production of capital goods. In the 1st quarter of 2014, growth rates of retail trade turnover amounted to 103.5%, which is 0.5 p.p. lower than the respective index of 2013. In January–March 2014, recovery of industrial growth thanks to a 2.4% increase in the output of manufacturing industries as compared to January–March 2013 had a positive effect on the economic situation. As of the end of March 2014, offices of the state employment service registered 941,000 persons as unemployed which is 13.2% lower as compared to March 2013.

In September 2014, the trend of slowdown of economic dynamics by the baseline types of economic activities stopped. Growth in industrial output, manufacturing and mining amounted to 2.8%, 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively, as compared to September 2013. However, the situation is complicated by the continued drop in investment activities. Investments in capital assets decreased by 2.8%, while the volume of jobs in building, by 3.7% as compared to September 2013. In September, year-on-year growth of up to 8% in the inflation rate and a 1% reduction in real wages caused a sudden slowdown of households’ consumer activities and the retail trade volume.