Search

Data from 48,187 cats insured between April 2012 and March 2013 were analyzed using logistic regression analysis to determine the association of age, breed and sex with the occurrence of urinary disorders. The overall annual prevalence of urinary disorders was 12.2%. Using crossbreeds as the reference breed, Abyssinian cats had the highest odds of having urinary disorders with a ratio of 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.63), followed by Norwegian Forest Cats and Somalis. Male cats had higher odds of having urinary disorders with a ratio of 1.27 (1.20-1.35) over female cats. Older cats had higher odds of having urinary disorders than young cats.

Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%–24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%–2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%–0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%–0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%–0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%–0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to examine the habits of dog walking in Japan using an internet survey of insured dog owners. About 96.4% of the respondents (n = 1,151) reported that they would take their dogs for a walk and they most frequently walk their dogs once or twice a day (75.9%) for 30 min to 1 hr (83.1%). The probability of a companion dog having contact with other dogs during dog walking was estimated to be 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81–0.85), and the associated daily contact rate was estimated using log‐normal distribution with a mean of 2.73 (95% CI: 2.42–3.11) and a standard deviation (SD) of 6.39 (95% CI: 5.18–7.84). Multiple linear regression revealed that the contact rate is mainly influenced by the social behaviour of the owner and to a lesser degree by his/her demographic characteristics including the area of residence, the breed size of dog and the age of the owner. In addition, ten Likert items measured on a 5‐point scale were designed to assess the practices towards potential cases of rabies among dog owners. The respondents (n = 972) achieved a mean score of 2.99 (out of a full score of 4) with a SD of 0.90 in responding to situations related to dog bite incidents and injury from stray cat scratches during dog walking. They achieved a higher score in responding to situations related to sighting a stray or wild animal during dog walking and situations related to non‐specific clinical signs of rabies and bite injuries from stray dogs or wild animals during dog walking with a mean of 3.70 (SD = 0.58) and 3.84 (SD = 0.34), respectively. The level of best practice was also proved to be significantly associated with the demographic characteristics of the dog owner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan is one of the few rabies-free countries/territories which implement the policy of mandatory vaccination of domestic dogs. In order to assess the economic efficiency of such policy in reducing the economic burden of a future canine rabies outbreak in Japan, a benefit-cost analysis (BCA) was performed using probabilistic decision tree modelling. Input data derived from simulation results of published mathematical model, field investigation conducted by the authors at prefectural governments, literature review, international or Japanese database and empirical data of rabies outbreaks in other countries/territories. The current study revealed that the annual costs of implementing the current vaccination policy would be US$160,472,075 (90% prediction interval [PI]: $149,268,935–171,669,974). The economic burden of a potential single canine rabies outbreak in Japan were estimated to be US$1,682,707 (90% PI: $1,180,289–2,249,283) under the current vaccination policy, while it would be US$5,019,093 (90% PI: $3,986,882–6,133,687) under hypothetical abolition of vaccination policy, which is 3-fold higher. Under a damage-avoided approach, the annual benefits of implementing the current vaccination policy in expected value were estimated to be US$85.75 (90% PI: $55.73–116.89). The benefit-cost ratio (BCR) was estimated to be 5.35 X 10−7 (90% PI: 3.46 X 10−7–7.37 X 10−7), indicating that the implementation of the current policy is very economically inefficient for the purpose of reducing the economic burden of a potential canine rabies outbreak. In worse-case scenario analysis, the BCR would become above 1 (indicating economic efficiency) if the risk of rabies introduction increased to 0.04 corresponding to a level of risk where rabies would enter Japan in 26 years while the economic burden of a rabies outbreak under the abolition of vaccination policy increased to $7.53 billion. Best-case analysis further revealed that under relatively extreme circumstances the economic efficiency of the current policy could be improved by decreasing the vaccination price charged to dog owners, relaxing the frequency of vaccination to every two to three years and implementing the policy on a smaller scale, e.g. only in targeted prefectures instead of the whole Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a stochastic simulation model, we estimated the effectiveness of the three BSE interventions (SRM removal, post-mortem testing and cohort culling) in Japan, in terms of the amount of bovine ID50 that would be prevented from entering the human food supply and the number of life years that would be saved from resulting vCJD cases. The average reduction of the BSE load on the human food supply under SRM removal was 97% over the period from 2002 to 2009. The average reduction of the BSE load under most-mortem testing was 83% over the period from 2002 to 2007. The risk reducing effect of the three interventions combined was 99%. The maximum number of life years saved by the three interventions combined was 40.84 in 2006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We estimated the infection prevalence of BSE in Japanese cattle born in the period 2000–2012, using maximum likelihood methods and BSE surveillance data of these birth cohorts. From this, we predicted the number of infected cattle and test positives in years 2004–2020. Assuming that the infection prevalence decayed exponentially over time from 2000, the infection prevalence of the 2000 birth cohort was estimated to be 0.00058 which declined exponentially by 0.115 times per year in the following years. The number of infected cattle was calculated to have peaked in 2005 and would be zero by 2020. The number of test positives was calculated to have peaked in 2005 and would be zero by 2012. The number of BSE cases actually detected was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted numbers. The detectable prevalence (predicted number of test positives/number of cattle tested) was predicted to be highest in 2005. In this year it was predicted that one animal out of 160,000 tested would test positive. The detectable prevalence would decline exponentially to zero in the subsequent years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Following the detection of the first case of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan in September 2001, nine million cattle were tested for BSE up to the end of 2008. As a result, a further 28 cases were detected in dairy cattle. Using the mathematical model previously developed and surveillance data up to the end of 2008, we estimated the prevalence of BSE-infected animals within each birth cohort for the years 1995–2001. We predicted historic and future trends in the number of BSE-infected animals to be culled and anticipated BSE cases from each birth cohort. The results indicate that more infected animals (428 (95% CI: 59–727)) than previously estimated would have been culled from 1995 to 2001, and more cases (53 (95% CI: 25–101)) than previously predicted would have been detected during this period with a higher peak in 2001, if a BSE surveillance program as comprehensive as the present one was applied. In and after 2009, 0–2 cases of BSE would likely to be detected. As previously predicted, the BSE epidemic should be eradicated by 2012. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: With the objective of evaluating the effectiveness of an administrative guidance on the use of ruminant meat-and-bone meal in ruminant feed, effective from April 1996 to September 2001, we developed a model to simulate the evolution of the BSE epidemic and to estimate the BSE multiplication factor (K) in the Japanese dairy population. The output that provided the best fit to the number of BSE cases both observed and predicted to date suggest that the probability that bovine MBM was fed back to cattle was 14.2–75.2% and 0.129–0.570% during the periods from 1992 to April 1996 and from April 1996 to October 2001, respectively. Given these estimates, the value of K would have peaked in 1995 at 40–48 and then declined to 0.32–0.67 between 1997 and 2001. These results suggest that the administrative guidance was effective in reducing the amount of MBM fed to cattle by a factor of 104–141 and was perhaps enough to drive the epidemic towards extinction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Following the detection of the first case of BSE in Japan in September 2001, four million cattle were subjected to a rapid test for BSE up to the end of 2004. A further 10 cases were detected in the dairy cattle population and two cases in Holstein steers. We focused on the dairy population and estimated the prevalence of BSE infected animals within each birth cohort for the years 1992–2001 using Bayesian inference. From this we were able to predict historic and future trends in the number of infected animals culled from each cohort and whether or not they could be detected using a rapid test. Assuming that BSE infectivity entered Japan in 1995, 225 (95%CI: 111–418) infected animals were predicted to have been culled from 1995 to 2001, of which 116 (56–219) would have been slaughtered for human consumption, and 33 (12–65) cases would have been detected during this period if a BSE surveillance program as comprehensive as the one in place as of April 2004 was applied. Assuming that BSE infectivity entered Japan in 1992, 905 (366–4633) infected animals were predicted to have been culled from 1992 to 2001, of which 694 (190–2473) would have been slaughtered for human consumption, and 201 (53–693) cases would have been detected during this period. Assuming the April 2004 level of surveillance continues and that the feed ban introduced in 2001 is completely effective, 18 (3–111) BSE cases are likely to be detected in the future. The BSE epidemic in Japan most likely reached a peak between 1998 and 2001 and should be eradicated around 2012. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Immediately after the detection of the first case of BSE in 2001, the Japanese government introduced active surveillance targeting fallen-stock and all cattle slaughtered for human consumption. By the end of 2004, four million animals were tested with rapid tests under the passive and active surveillance. As a result 13 additional cases were detected. I focused on the 1996 birth cohort, in which nine cases of BSE were detected during 2001–2004, and estimated the prevalence of BSE infection of that birth cohort using maximum-likelihood methods. Using the estimated prevalence of infection as an input variable, I calculated the adjusted incidence risk of BSE by different ages and risk subpopulations (clinical-suspects, fallen-stock, sick-slaughter and healthy-slaughter animals). The adjusted incidence risk of BSE in sick-slaughter animals (animals showing clinical signs not compatible with BSE when slaughtered for human consumption) was 18.7 and 4.5–78.4 times higher than the incidence risk in fallen-stock and healthy-slaughter animals, respectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

All cattle of UK and German origin imported to Japan since 1980 and slaughtered before 2002 were traced (n = 33 and 15 respectively) and the probability that none, one, two or three of these imported cattle had developed BSE (reached the end or last stage of incubation period) at the year of slaughter/death was calculated. The predicted risk that BSE was introduced into Japan by imported cattle was 0.18. Among cattle imported from these countries in various years, cattle imported from the UK in 1987 and 1988 presented the highest risk, while the risk that BSE entered Japan by live cattle imported from the UK in 1982 and from Germany in 1993 was negligible. Because there was no effective system to avoid the recycling of the BSE agent, those infected cattle imported from the UK in 1987 and 1988 most probably entered the feed chain in Japan in 1992 and 1993. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place to protect the country from the introduction of the disease. With an increasing number of freight containers arriving in Japan every year, there is a concern that rabies might be reintroduced into Japan through animals arriving in international freight containers. A stochastic simulation model was built assuming the following entry and exposure pathway as being the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected animal is accidentally placed in a freight container in the country of origin; it survives transportation from the moment the container is sealed in the country of origin until it is opened at the destination in Japan; and it escapes from the container when it is opened at the destination in Japan. Input parameter values were based on surveys of container handling and warehouse agencies and scientific data from the literature. The annual probability of rabies introduction through this pathway worldwide was 5.47 × 10−6 (90 % PI: 9.72 × 10-7–1.33 × 10-5), or rabies would enter Japan every 368,864 (90 %PI: 75,267 – 1,027,568) years. Among sub-regions, the annual probability was highest for South-eastern Asia (4.54 × 10-6 (90 % PI: 8.04 × 10-7–1.11 × 10-5)), followed by Eastern Asia and Southern Asia. The rabies introduction risk from other sub-regions was negligible. The result of scenario analysis indicated that even if any of the main parameters changes, the risk of rabies introduction still remains very low, suggesting that unintentional movement of animals through international freight containers is not a very important pathway of rabies introduction into Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place protecting the country from the introduction of the disease. Historical reviews indicate that the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido occurred frequently especially in the early 2000s and this could potentially be a source of introduction of rabies into Japan. The method of scenario tree modelling was used and the following entry and exposure pathway was considered the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected dog arriving on a Russian fishing boat lands in a port of Hokkaido in Japan, it becomes infectious, contacts and infects a susceptible domestic animal (companion dog, stray dog or wildlife). Input parameter values were based on surveys of Russian fishermen, expert opinion and scientific data from the literature. At present (2006–2015), the probability of the introduction of rabies as a result of one Russian fishing boat arriving at a port of Hokkaido is 8.33 × 10 −10 (90% Prediction Interval (PI): 7.15 × 10 −11 –5.34 × 10 −9 ), while this probability would have been 7.70 × 10 −9 (90% PI: 6.40 × 10 −10 –4.81 × 10 −8 ) in the past (1998–2005). Under the current situation (average annual number of boat arrivals is 1106), rabies would enter Japan every 1,084,849 (90% PI: 169,215–20,188,348) years, while the disease would have been introduced every 18,309 (90% PI: 2929–220,048) years in the past (average annual number of boat arrivals is 7092). The risk of rabies introduction has decreased 59 fold due to both the effective control of the issue of illegal landing of dogs and the decline in the number of Russian boat arrivals. Control efforts include education of Russian fishermen, establishment of warning signs, daily patrols and regular port surveillance of potential dog landing activity. Furthermore, scenario analysis revealed that the policy of mandatory domestic dog vaccination does not contribute effectively to Japan’s rabies prevention system under rabies-free situation. Although the current risk of rabies introduction is minimal, control measures against the illegal landing of dogs must be maintained. Further risk management measures, such as the removal of wildlife from the port area and regular monitoring of the rabies situation in Russia (particularly the easternmost regions), can be established to strengthen the current rabies prevention system in Hokkaido. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aim of obtaining information to establish an import risk assessment on African swine fever (ASF) and other transboundary animal diseases (TADs) into Japan, a questionnaire survey was conducted between 1 August and 20 September 2019 on air travellers arriving into Japan from China. There were 248 responses with 2.8 % of respondents illegally importing pork products. The quantity imported per traveller varied between 250 g and 2 kg. Concerning the travellers' perception in regard to the difficulty of importing a pork product in their luggage, 32 respondents (12.9 %) considered it very easy or rather easy and 216 (87.1 %) very difficult or rather difficult. In regard to the recognition of respondents of the illegality of importing pork products into Japan, seven respondents (2.8 %) did not consider this practice to be illegal whilst 241 (97.2 %) had some idea of the illegal nature of this behaviour. The regression analysis revealed that the practice of illegal importation of pork products was significantly affected by the level of difficulty perception held by the traveller (P < 0.001) and that the difficulty perception is significantly affected by the level of recognition of illegality by the traveller (P < 0.001). The result of this study will not only provide useful data in developing a model to assess the probability of introduction of ASF and other TADs into Japan and other countries, but also in monitoring the effect of measures taken by the government to reduce the illegal importation of meat and meat products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Japan veterinary antimicrobials are used most in the pig production sector. However, there is a paucity of data on the quantity of antimicrobials used on pig farms in Japan. This study describes antimicrobial use on Japanese pig farms in 2015, 2016 and 2017 in terms of mg of active ingredient per kg of PCU (population correction unit). Data on antimicrobial use from a total of 72 farrow-to finish farms over these three years were used in the study. The results revealed that the average use of antimicrobials in 2015, 2016 and 2017 was 304.8 (SD = 226.3), 311.2 (SD = 241.0) and 342.9 (SD = 291.3) mg/kg PCU, respectively. Most (97%) of the antimicrobials were administered orally. The most commonly used antimicrobials were tetracyclines, followed by macrolides, penicillins and sulfonamides. Tohoku was the region in which the lowest quantities of antimicrobial were used whilst South Kanto was the region in which the largest amount was used. The use of antimicrobials was on the increase in the North Kanto, South Kanto and Kyushu regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]