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This thesis examines the main security and economic drivers for Japan’s foreign policy responses to U.S.–China competition in the Indo-Pacific region through a historical lens. First, the Cold War era is reviewed to determine the effects of Japan’s post-war status under the occupation of U.S. forces and China’s rapid rise as an economic competitor in the region. Then, the last decade is reviewed to find the trajectory and consistency of Japan’s foreign policy decisions as the U.S. and China progressively competed for hegemonic influence in the region. This thesis found that, while security drivers tended to be consistent throughout these two periods, economic drivers were more diverse because of the radically different set of circumstances Japan has faced while it developed into a more autonomous country. Japan frequently reacted to perceptions of an increasingly hostile or unstable environment and to concerns of an over-dependence on the U.S., particularly during periods where the U.S. was viewed as a potentially unreliable security partner. While Japan's responses did not have a consistent set of economic drivers, there was a common trend of fear of over-dependence on the U.S. and China at different points in time. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis explores three aspects of post–Cold War Japanese security policy development. First, what significant security policy changes have occurred between 1989 and 2020? Second, what were the underlying factors that created the observed policy outcome? Third, how durable do those factors appear to be in 2020 and beyond? This thesis concludes with an assessment of Japan's probable future security policy trajectory, based upon the answers to the three foregoing questions. In seeking to answer the above questions, this thesis draws four primary conclusions. First, that Japan has maintained a consistent, but limited, security policy trajectory toward militarization over the observed period from 1989–2020. Second, that the observed trajectory is being driven by an interaction between external factors (China threat, North Korea threat, U.S. force presence, and U.S. diplomacy) and internal factors (antiwar norms, suspicion of revisionists, single-party dominance, and prime minister preferences). Third, that the factors driving Japan’s security policy trajectory toward militarization are currently durable in both vector and degree, while the factors resisting further militarization are situationally malleable. Fourth, and finally, that Japan is likely to remain on a long-term trajectory toward further militarization, in which Japanese technological and legal capability for use of force will continue to expand. http://archive.org/details/japansmodernsecu1094566595 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

According to conventional wisdom, a country’s population affects its ability to staff and fund its military. Japan analysts agree, making the case that Japan’s current demographic situation should be constraining manpower and funding in its military—the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). However, Japan has maintained both manning and expenditure levels for the SDF, despite its aging and declining population. Does the conventional wisdom not apply to Japan? If not, why? How has Japan maintained its military manpower and funding despite deteriorating demographic trends? Ultimately, the purpose of this research is to assess the prevailing opinion of Japan based on data gathered from academic and government sources. The first half of this research examines whether population decline has a negative impact on military manpower (i.e., poses a direct constraint), while the second half examines whether population decline has a negative impact on military funding (i.e., poses an indirect constraint). This thesis finds that Japan has successfully maintained both manning and expenditure levels for the SDF by (1) manipulating certain recruitment policies and (2) increasing its deficit spending. http://archive.org/details/japansdemographi1094564877 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

During the Cold War, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) was heavily focused on defending Japan from a Soviet invasion and ensuring sea lines of communications (SLOC) were available for U.S. naval forces in the event of a major conflict. After the Cold War, the JMSDF had to adopt new missions based on the constantly changing threat environment. This thesis assesses how well the JMSDF responded to a variety of threats to Japan during each of the three decades since the end of the Cold War. The main chapters look at the threats Japan faced each decade and then how JMSDF equipment and policy changed as a result of the identified threats. The research suggests that the JMSDF usually falls in the middle of the spectrum and adequately meets defense requirements. It also shows that there were times where the JMSDF was not prepared or was over prepared, but adjustments were made to bring the JMSDF back to the middle ground. http://archive.org/details/japanesemaritime1094561383 Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.