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Invasive airborne insects pose major challenges in natural resource and agriculture management, as they can rapidly spread over large distances and cross physical boundaries. Field monitoring and local management are important tools to prevent and control infestations but require additional coordination to be operative region-wide. Computational modeling techniques have been effective in simulating local population dynamics and in capturing spread of invasive species on a regional scale. We use an integrated ecological model to simulate local and regional infestation dynamics of sugarcane aphids, Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), on sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench (family Poaceae), in the southern to central Great Plains of the United States. Local dynamics of aphid populations on sorghum are simulated by a spatially explicit, individual-based model, whereas regional aphid migration is simulated by an atmospheric model that computes inert air particle (aphid) transport, dispersion, and deposition. Simulation results indicate timing of initial infestations in the south affects spatiotemporal patterns of infestation throughout the region. Probability of local infestations is a function of both percentage of land occupied by growing sorghum and prevailing winds. Thus, due to availability of sorghum, relatively later dates of initial infestation in the south will probably lead to infestations farther north that become established more quickly following the first appearance of aphids in the south. The model we present, in coordination with field monitoring schemes, could be applied as a forecasting tool in region-wide pest management systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense) was the most prevalent invasive shrub in the forestlands of Eastern Texas in 2006. We analyzed extensive field data collected by the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the U.S. Forest Service to quantify the range expansion of Chinese privet from 2006 to 2011. Our results indicated the presence of Chinese privet on sampled plots increased during this period. Chinese privet spread extensively in the north. Results of logistic regression, which classified 73% of the field plots correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion was correlated positively with elevation, adjacency (within 300 m) to water bodies, and site productivity, and was correlated negatively with stand age, site preparation (including clearing, slash burning, chopping, disking, bedding, and other practices clearly intended to prepare a site for regeneration), artificial regeneration (which refers to planting or direct seeding that results in at least 50% of the stand being comprised of stocked trees), and distance to the nearest road. Habitats most at risk to further invasion (likelihood of invasion > 40%) under current conditions occurred primarily in Northeast Texas. Practicing site preparation and artificial regeneration reduced the estimated probabilities of further invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japanese honeysuckle is one of the most aggressive invasive vines in forestlands of the southern United States. We analyzed field data collected by the U.S. Forest Service to identify potential determinants of invasion and to predict likelihood of further invasion under a variety of possible management strategies. Results of logistic regression, which classified 74% of the field plots correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion is correlated positively with adjacency to water bodies, temperature, site productivity, species diversity, and private land ownership, and is correlated negatively with slope, stand age, artificial regeneration, distance to the nearest road, and fire disturbance. Habitats most at risk to further invasion under current conditions occur throughout Mississippi, stretching northward across western Tennessee and western Kentucky, westward across southern Arkansas, eastward across north-central Alabama, and also occur in several counties scattered within Virginia. Invasion likelihoods could be increased by global climate change and reduced most by conversion to public land ownership, followed by artificial regeneration, and fire disturbance. While conversion of land ownership may not be feasible, this result suggests the opportunity for decreasing the likelihood of invasions on private lands via using selected management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]