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Lake water clarity is an indicator of water quality, trophic status, and habitat condition. Changes in clarity impact lake ecosystems and may reflect land use changes or presence of invasive species. Quantifying temporal changes in water clarity can be challenging because clarity varies seasonally, annually, and spatially within and among lakes. We developed a hierarchical generalized additive model to quantify trends in water clarity (Secchi depth) from 1979 to 2018 for 909 Minnesota lakes, accounting for seasonal and spatial variability. Water clarity increased by 0.41 m across lakes from 1984 to 1988 and 2014 to 2018. Lake‐specific clarity trends varied: clarity did not change significantly in 59.0% of lakes, increased in 34.5% of lakes, and decreased in 6.5% of lakes. Water clarity dynamics caused considerable variability in littoral area between seasons and years. Our results have wide applications in aquatic ecology, including understanding changes to food webs, assessing fish habitat, and evaluating impacts of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding where, when, and how native species persist in the face of invasive species‐driven ecosystem change is critical for invasive species management and native species conservation. In some cases, ecological interactions among native and invasive species are spatially structured, and spatial segregation can be a key coexistence mechanism for ecologically similar taxa.We evaluated 19‐years of spatially explicit crayfish community data from a long‐term whole‐lake experiment, which includes 8 years of invasive rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) removal followed by 11 years of post‐removal data collection. We quantified the within lake spatiotemporal patterns of virile crayfish (F. virilis) and rusty crayfish, and relate their dynamics to site‐level habitat conditions.In response to removal efforts, rusty crayfish catch rates declined by >95%, and native virile crayfish catch rates increased by more than 20‐fold. Ten years after ceasing removals, rusty crayfish have stayed at this relatively low abundance, and the virile crayfish population has remained stable. During removal, rusty crayfish abundances decreased non‐uniformly throughout the lake. Only after rusty crayfish populations were at their lowest levels did the native virile crayfish population begin to show signs of a recovery.Virile crayfish recovery was highly localized within the lake, and likely influenced by habitat and rusty crayfish abundance. Initially, virile crayfish made the most substantial resurgence in an area of the lake with rocky habitat conditions, but through time their distribution shifted into adjacent suboptimal macrophyte and muck habitats as rusty crayfish became more abundant in nearby areas. In general, when the two species overlapped in space, virile crayfish abundance stayed low, or the population shifted to adjacent areas with fewer competitively dominant rusty crayfish.Our results suggest that habitat heterogeneity allowed virile crayfish to maintain a foothold despite high rusty crayfish densities. Removal efforts led to the recovery of virile crayfish, and spatial segregation facilitated both species coexisting at comparable abundances for a decade. Our results highlight that invasive species control, even in the absence of complete eradication, can benefit native species and that spatially structured interactions can promote coexistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species are leading drivers of environmental change. Their impacts are often linked to their population size, but surprisingly little is known about how frequently they achieve high abundances. A nearly universal pattern in ecology is that species are rare in most locations and abundant in a few, generating right-skewed abundance distributions. Here, we use abundance data from over 24,000 populations of 17 invasive and 104 native aquatic species to test whether invasive species differ from native counterparts in statistical patterns of abundance across multiple sites. Invasive species on average reached significantly higher densities than native species and exhibited significantly higher variance. However, invasive and native species did not differ in terms of coefficient of variation, skewness, or kurtosis. Abundance distributions of all species were highly right skewed (skewness>0), meaning both invasive and native species occurred at low densities in most locations where they were present. The average abundance of invasive and native species was 6% and 2%, respectively, of the maximum abundance observed within a taxonomic group. The biological significance of the differences between invasive and native species depends on species-specific relationships between abundance and impact. Recognition of cross-site heterogeneity in population densities brings a new dimension to invasive species management, and may help to refine optimal prevention, containment, control, and eradication strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fishery management is often characterized by trade-offs among conflicting objectives. One important tradeoff exists between investments in assessment (reducing uncertainty) and in implementation of management actions in system. Resource-intensive assessment programs are often used to inform decision makers, and we argue that the value of these assessments should be measured not only in terms of the information they provide, but also relative to other management actions that could be funded in their place. In this article, we illustrate the importance of accounting for all aspects of the value of information using examples drawn from three critical areas of fishery management: invasive species control, commercial fisheries stock assessments, and marine protected area design. We discuss how experts have judged the value of assessment programs in the past, and provide suggestions as to how these methods could be expanded to examine the value of information in a more holistic manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting invasion risk under future climate conditions is critical for the effective management of invasive species, and species distribution models (SDMs) are key tools for doing so. However, SDM‐based forecasts are uncertain, especially when correlative statistical models extrapolate to nonanalog environmental domains, such as future climate conditions. Different assumptions about the functional form of the temperature–suitability relationship can impact predicted habitat suitability under novel conditions. Hence, methods to understand the sources of uncertainty are critical when applying SDMs. Here, we use high‐resolution predictions of lake water temperatures to project changes in habitat suitability under future climate conditions for an invasive macrophyte (Myriophyllym spicatum). Future suitability was predicted using five global circulation models and three statistical models that assumed different species–temperature functional responses. The suitability of lakes for M. spicatum was overall predicted to increase under future climate conditions, but the magnitude and direction of change in suitability varied greatly among lakes. Variability was most pronounced for lakes under nonanalog temperature conditions, indicating that predictions for these lakes remained highly uncertain. Integrating predictions from SDMs that differ in their species–environment response function, while explicitly quantifying uncertainty across analog and nonanalog domains, can provide a more robust and useful approach to forecasting invasive species distribution under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]