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Previous studies mostly assumed that the effects of policy uncertainty on trade flows are symmetric. In this article, we add to this literature by arguing and demonstrating that the effects could be asymmetric. Since asymmetry analysis requires using non‐linear models, such models yield a more significant outcome than linear models. We show this by considering the trade flows of 66 two‐digit U.S. exporting industries to Japan and 59 two‐digit Japanese exporting industries to the United States. While both the linear and non‐linear models predicted short‐run effects of the U.S. and Japanese policy uncertainty on exports of most industries, the long‐run effects were significantly different. In the long run, while the linear model predicted no significant effects of either uncertainty measure, the non‐linear model 12 (14) U.S. exporting industries that were affected by changes in the Japanese (the U.S.) policy uncertainty measure and six (10) Japanese exporting industries that were affected by changes in the Japanese (the U.S.) policy uncertainty measure. Several large industries were among the affected industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The J-curve studies related to India have mostly either used aggregate trade flows of India with the rest of the world or between India and its trading partners. They have [...]

The new direction on the link between a measure of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is to estimate nonlinear models to determine if trade flows respond to exchange rate volatility in an asymmetric manner. In this paper we consider the U.S. trade flows with 12 South American partners. Estimates of traditional trade models revealed that only U.S. exports to Paraguay and Venezuela and its imports from Peru responds adversely to exchange rate volatility in the long run. However, estimates of nonlinear models predicted that U.S. exports to Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, and Venezuela, and its imports from Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, and Venezuela are affected asymmetrically. Clearly, the nonlinear approach yields relatively more significant outcomes than the linear approach and must be the norm for future research on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current trend in applied research points at application of Shin et al.'s (2014) nonlinear ARDL approach to asymmetric error-correction modeling and asymmetric cointegration. Two studies in the literature have applied these approaches to assess the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on aggregate exports and imports of Asian and African countries, respectively. We add to this new literature by considering the experiences of G7 countries. We find that trade flows of almost all countries are affected by volatility asymmetrically in the short run. In the long run, while French and Italian exports are boosted by increased volatility, German exports are hurt. On the other hand, decreased volatility reduces French and Italian exports. As for G7 imports, increased exchange rate volatility hurts imports of Canada, Germany, France, Italy, and the U.K. in the long run and decreased volatility boosts their imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade includes trade not just in goods but also in services. Introduction of internet technology has helped to boost trade in services by more than trade in goods. What has been the role of the exchange rate in this journey? While many studies have investigated the link between the exchange rate and trade in goods, only three studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade in services. Two have used data from the U.S., and one from China. We add to this new emerging literature by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won on Korean trade in 10 service categories with the rest of the world. Considering the symmetric (linear) models and asymmetric (nonlinear) models to be complementary, we find short-run effects of imports and exports of almost all 10 service industries. Short-run effects translate into the long run in little over 50% of industries. These findings did not change significantly when we considered real trade in services versus nominal trade. Our findings were industry-specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies are assessing the impact of news‐based policy uncertainty measure on trade flows between countries. In this paper we add to this new literature by investigating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Australian policy uncertainty index and the U.S. index on trade flows of 63 two‐digit industries that trade between the two countries. When we estimated a symmetric and linear model for each industry, we found short‐run effects of both uncertainty measures on 30% of the industries' trade flows. However, this number increased to 70% when an asymmetric and nonlinear model was estimated. The long‐run effects of both policy uncertainty followed similar pattern. Less than 10% of trade was affected by the estimates of the linear models. However, estimates of the nonlinear models predicted that 41.20% (26.53%) of the U.S. exports to Australia was affected by the U.S. uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). As for the Australian exports to the United States, 6.72% (5.5%) of its exports were affected by the changes in the U.S. policy uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). In almost all industries, increased uncertainty was found to hurt the trade and decreased uncertainty was found to boost it at different rate or asymmetrically. In sum, the U.S. and Australian policy uncertainty measure affects U.S. exports to Australia much more than they affect Australian exports to the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost all studies that tested the J-curve phenomenon, used trade data in only goods. Trade in service has received no attention until recently when one study tested the symmetric and asymmetric J-curve hypothesis using financial and insurance service data between the U.S. and its major partners. In this paper we add to this new literature by testing the symmetric and asymmetric J-curve effect using China's service trade with rest of the world. We find support for the J-curve effect in six out of 12 service industries, symmetric in some and asymmetric in some others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excessive fluctuations in exchange rates often influence trade flows. Theoretically, increased uncertainty may increase or decrease the volume of trade, or leave it unchanged. Using annual export and import data for 102 industries from 1962 to 2004, we analyze both the short- and long-term effects of volatility in the peso/dollar real exchange rate on Mexican trade with the United States. We also investigate the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on this relationship. We find that increased volatility has short-term effects on the trade flows of most industries but that the long-term effects are significant (positive or negative) for only one-third of industries. Most of the significant effects are negative rather than positive. JEL Classification: F31, 1. Introduction With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, real exchange rates began to fluctuate greatly. As volatility increased, exporters and importers could no longer be as [...]

A few studies that have assessed the impact of economic policy uncertainty on trade flows, have used aggregate trade flows in a panel model. In this paper, we reduce aggregation bias by considering the response of each of the 87 industries in the trade between the U.S. and China to economic policy uncertainty in both countries. While we find significant short-run effects of both uncertainty measures in almost 55% of the U.S. exporting to and importing industries from China, short-run effects lasted into significant long-run effects in a limited number of large and small industries. More precisely, we found U.S. policy uncertainty to have negative long-run effects in 36 exporting industries with an export share of 43% and 25 importing industries with an import share of 11%. By contrast, we found China's economic policy uncertainty to have positive long-run effects on the U.S. exports of 19 industries with an export share of 18% and on the U.S. imports of 24 industries with an import share of 13.5%. Clearly, increased tension between these two countries that contribute to increased uncertainty will hurt the trade balance of both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the response of trade flows between Britain and Germany to exchange rate volatility. When we estimated a linear model, we found short-run effects of volatility in 36 British exporting industries that lasted into the long run only in 23 industries. The comparable number for German exporting industries were 42 and 17, respectively. However, when we estimated a nonlinear model, we found short-run asymmetric effects of volatility in 54 British exporting industries that lasted into the long run in 38 industries. The comparable number for German exporting industries were 64 and 42, respectively. Almost all affected industries were small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly all studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows for goods. Service industries, however, have not received much attention. Two studies have assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on U.S. service trade with its partners. We add to this literature with a new study that assesses the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective rate of the yuan on China's trade in 11 service industries with the world. While we find short-run effects on imports and exports for almost all service categories, short-run effects last into long-run asymmetric effects in six Chinese importing service industries and eight Chinese exporting service industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies investigating the J-Curve have shifted their emphasis from aggregate trade to bilateral trade. The test of short-run and the long-run effects of depreciation of the dollar on the bilateral balance between the U.S. and 13 developing countries is presented

Following recent advances in asymmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on China's bilateral trade with each of its 21 trading partners. We find symmetric effects in only a few bilateral trade models. However, the asymmetric analysis which required using nonlinear models revealed short-run asymmetric effects in almost all export and import demand models and log-run significant asymmetric effects in 50% of the models. In almost all models, while increased volatility was found to hurt Chinese trade, decreased volatility was found to boost them, implying that stable exchange rate is beneficial for China's trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the main goal of the original NAFTA treaty was to promote trade among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, exchange rate uncertainty among the members is still a factor affecting trade. A previous study that assessed asymmetric effects of the real peso‐dollar volatility on trade flows between Mexico and the U.S. used the nonlinear ARDL approach and found that increased (decreased) volatility hurts (boosts) exports of nearly 50% of the industries that trade between the two countries. In this paper, we carry out the same analysis using trade data from 34 (24) large U.S. exporting (importing) industries to (from) Canada. We find that nearly 38% of the industries are affected by the U.S. dollar‐Canadian dollar volatility. However, the majority of the affected industries export more when exchange rate volatility increases or decreases. It appears that traders are more risk tolerant in the case of U.S.‐Canada trade but risk averse in the case of U.S.‐Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Chinese trade flows reported mixed findings. They all have assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of asymmetric effects of the real yuan–dollar volatility on the trade flows of 84 2‐digit industries that trade between the two countries. We show that estimating asymmetric and nonlinear models for each industry yields much more significant outcomes than estimating symmetric and linear models. We find that trade flows of 2/3rd of industries are affected asymmetrically in the short run. Short‐run effects last into asymmetric adverse long‐run effects in 35 U.S. exporting industries (with export share of 45%) to China and in 44 Chinese exporting industries (with 76% export share) to the U.S. Since increased volatility hurts a significant share of both countries' exports, a stable yuan–dollar rate as well as inflation rate will benefit both countries in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on Korean trade flows assumed that the effects are symmetric. When we change this assumption and investigate the asymmetric effects of the real won‐dollar volatility on 61 U.S. exporting industries to Korea and on 49 U.S. importing industries from Korea, we discover relatively more significant and asymmetric effects. Indeed, we find short‐run asymmetric effects in 37 U.S. exporting industries that last into significant long‐run asymmetric effects in 29 of them. We also find short‐run asymmetric effects on imports of 24 industries that last into significant long‐run asymmetric effects in 33 out of 49 industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the introduction of the news-based policy uncertainty measure, a few studies have looked at its impact on trade flows by using panel models and aggregate trade data. In this paper we consider the short-run and long-run response of 61 2-digit U.S. exporting industries to Korea and 49 2-digit Korean exporting industries to the U.S. to policy uncertainty measures of the U.S. and Korea. We find that both measures have short-run effects on exports of almost one-third of industries in either direction. In the long run, however, while nine U.S. exporting industries (with a trade share of 9%) are negatively affected by the Korean uncertainty measure, only five industries (with 6% export share) are affected by the U.S. uncertainty measure. As for the Korean exporting industries, we find that three industries with a 31% export share are affected positively by the Korean uncertainty measure and six industries with a 7% export share are affected positively by the U.S. uncertainty measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article follows the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) error-correction methodology to explore nonlinearity in the relationship between the trade balances and the real exchange rates for China and its 21 partners. We find evidence for short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate in cases of 18 partners, short-run adjustment asymmetry in cases of 11 partners, short-run cumulative asymmetry in cases of seven partners, and a significant long-run asymmetric effect cases of five partners. We find support for the “J-curve” that is only due to appreciation or depreciation of the Yuan in cases of five partners, including the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cushman suggested that impact of exchange rate volatility declines after the inclusion of the third-country effect. Like Cushman, when we use a linear analysis, we confirm his results. However, when we engage in asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility which requires including nonlinear adjustment of volatility measures, the findings show more support to both exchange rate volatility influence and the third-country effect. Therefore, we propose that in examining exchange rate volatility effect on trade, consideration must be given to not just asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility but also asymmetric effects of the third-country effect. We demonstrate these findings using monthly data from 54 Malaysian industries that export to the US and 63 Malaysian industries that import from the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the pass-through of exchange rate changes on import and export prices are asymmetric, we expect a country’s inpayments (export earnings) and outpayments (cost of imports) to also react to exchange rate changes asymmetrically. We demonstrate this hypothesis by considering trade between Malaysia and each of her 11 largest trading partners. We find that while the short-run effects of exchange rate changes on Malaysia’s inpayments and outpayments are asymmetric with all partners, the long-run asymmetric effects are present in less than half of the partners. The results are partner specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aftab et al. (Empirica 43:461-485, 2016) in this journal assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Malaysia-EU trade at commodity level using the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econom 16:289-326, 2001) and did not find significant effects in most of the 81 Malaysian exporting and 66 importing industries. In this paper, we argue for asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the same industries’ trades which implies using Shin et al.’s (Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach. While we find short-run asymmetric effects of volatility in almost all industries, we find evidence of adjustment asymmetry in 17 exporting and nine importing industries. We also find significant impact or short-run cumulative asymmetry in 12 exporting and six importing industries. The most important finding is significant long-run asymmetric effects in 36 Malaysian exporting industries and 25 Malaysian importing industries. Clearly, trade flows react to an increased exchange rate volatility differently than to a decreased volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study a sample of twelve African countries to examine the impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their trade flows. In order to distinguish the distinct impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their exports and imports, both in the short-run and long-run, we use the bounds-testing approach. We find that while exchange rate volatility affects trade flows of many of the countries in our sample in the short run, the long-run effects were restricted only on the exports of five countries and on the imports of only one country. The level of economic activity in the world and at home were identified to be major determinants of exports and imports, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate continues to attract attention by international economists and has entered into new territory, mostly due to advances in econometric methods. The introduction of asymmetric error-correction modelling and asymmetric cointegration using the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. ( Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, Springer, 2014, 281) as compared to the symmetric and linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. ( Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 289) has led us in a new direction to discover relatively better results. We apply these methods to the bilateral trade balance model of each of the 68 industries that trade between India and the USA. The nonlinear approach not only provides more support to the J-curve effect, but also yields support in favour of short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in most of the industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows has been intensively studied by researchers after the adoption of flexible exchange rate system. Different studies have used data from different countries at different aggregation level. In this paper we consider the experiences of 57 Pakistan's exporting to and 52 importing industries from the US over the period 1980-2014. We find that almost 50 % of the industries are affected by exchange rate volatility in the short-run. However, short-run effects last into the long run only in 26 exporting industries and 18 importing industries. Due to such disaggregation we find that all four large exporting and importing industries are affected positively in the long run. The list includes industries coded 656 (made up articles with 32.45 % of exports share), 841 (clothing with 50.7 % exports share), 263 (cotton with 8.64 % import share) and 282 (iron and steel scrap with 2.10 % imports share). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We add to the literature on the “Third-Country” effect by assessing the impact of rupee-dollar volatility on 116 U.S. industries that export to Pakistan and 53 U.S. industries that import from Pakistan. As two measures of “Third-Country” effects, we include volatility measures of rupee-yuan and dollar-yuan rates due to the increased role of China in the global economy. We find evidence of “Third-Country” effects in more than half of the industries. Among affected industries are many of the large U.S. exporting industries, but not large U.S. importing industries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Orcutt’s hypothesis in international economics implies that trade flows respond to exchange rate changes faster than to changes in relative prices. Most previous studies used import and export demand models and tested the hypothesis by imposing and comparing lag lengths on the exchange rate and relative prices. One recent study, however, employed impulse response of trade flows to one SD shock to the nominal exchange rate and one SD shock to relative prices and tested the Orcutt’s hypothesis for several industrial countries. In this article we follow this study and test the hypothesis for six developing countries using impulse response analysis. Like the other study for industrial countries, we do not find much support for the hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Orcutt’s hypothesis in international economics asserts that trade flows respond to exchange rate changes faster than to changes in relative prices. Previous research has provided mixed support by using trade flows of one country with the rest of the world, an aggregate concept. A second group of studies is now emerging which use prices and trade flows at commodity level. We add to this second group by using data from 10 Standard International Trade Classification single-digit industries that trade between Korea and the United States. The hypothesis was supported in small fraction of industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent instability in Egypt has brought attention to the role of risk in this important economy. At the same time, there is room in the ever-expanding literature on the link between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, in Egypt. This study examines 36 separate export and import industries vis-à-vis the United States, from 1994 to 2007. An application of cointegration analysis and error-correction modeling finds evidence of long-run relationships for many import and export industries, with exports increasing due to higher risk in a large proportion of cases. Although most industries, particularly in imports, are nevertheless unaffected, our results differ from other studies in the literature. An analysis of our industry-level results shows that chemical imports, and exports of industries with large trade shares, are more likely to increase than are other products or imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, many papers have studied the effects of exchange-rate volatility on international trade, particularly at the bilateral level for large numbers of individual industries. This is necessary because the underlying theory is ambiguous and because earlier papers failed to uncover significant results at a higher degree of aggregation. This paper examines the case of Japan and Thailand over the period from 1970 to 2010. We find that slightly more than half of 117 export industries and 54 import industries are affected by volatility in the short run. In the long run, 6 export and 2 import industries are affected positively, and 22 export and 9 import industries are affected negatively. Small Japanese export industries are more likely to be negatively affected, while imports show no differences regarding industry size. In a sectoral analysis, we find some evidence that Japanese exports of manufactures and certain machinery and transport equipment might be relatively more affected by the exchange-rate risk. Raw material imports are least affected. These findings therefore suggest which industries might benefit most by a policy promoting a stable yen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elasticity approach to balance of payments postulates that a country can enjoy an improvement in its trade balance in the long run if sum of import and export demand price elasticities exceed unity, a condition known as the Marshall-Lerner condition. Previous research tested this condition either using aggregate trade data between one country and rest of the world or between two countries and provided mixed results. They are all said to suffer from aggregation bias. To remove the bias, in this paper we concentrate on trade flows of two countries, i.e., the U.S. and Egypt and disaggregate their trade flows by commodity. The estimates reveal that the ML condition is met in 28 out of 36 industries that trade between the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the world's most important exporters, Korea might find volatility in the won to be detrimental to trade. But, since previous studies - as well as economic theory - suggest that the impact of exchange-rate risk on individual countries trade flows can be ambiguous, each case must be tested empirically. This study does, examining 148 Korean export industries and 144 import industries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. We find that in the long run, twenty export industries respond negatively to exchange-rate risk, while twelve respond positively. For imports, however, eight have negative coefficients and fourteen have positive ones. The majority of industries are unaffected. Small Korean exporters are particularly vulnerable to exchange-rate risk, as are two large export industries. Imports in the Machinery and transport equipment sector, particularly automobiles, are most likely to see a decrease in the overall trade balance due to increased risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currency devaluation or depreciation is said to temporarily worsen a country’s trade balance and improve it later, an effect that is called the J-Curve. Previous research that tested the J-Curve for Brazil used the country’s aggregate trade flows with the rest of the world and did not find support for the phenomenon. In this article, we consider the trade flows between Brazil and a major trading partner, the United States, disaggregating their trade flows by commodity. We then test the empirical validity of the J-Curve for each of the 92 industries that trade between the two countries. We find support for the phenomenon in 31 industries. Therefore, disaggregation by industry seems to yield some support for the phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Une dévaluation ou dépréciation monétaire est censée améliorer la balance commerciale d′un pays à long terme si la condition de Marshall-Lerner est satisfaite. S′appuyant sur des données agrégées sur le commerce entre un pays et le reste du monde, ou entre deux pays, au niveau bilatéral, des recherches antérieures, qui ont cherché à évaluer la validité empirique de cette condition, ont fourni des résultats contrastés. Il est dit que les deux groupes souffrent d′un biais d′agrégation. Pour corriger ce biais, nous ventilons les données du commerce entre deux régions, l′Égypte et l′UE, et procédons à une estimation de la condition au niveau de produits issus de 59 secteurs et faisant l′objet d′échanges commerciaux entre les deux régions. Les résultats montrent que la condition est remplie pour 39 secteurs. Parmi ces 39 secteurs on trouve des petites et grandes industries, certaines bénéficiant d′un avantage comparatif, d′autres souffrant d′un désavantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has been accused of manipulating its currency to gain international competitiveness and enjoy a trade surplus. The S-Curve is a hypothesis that could be used to test the effectiveness of currency devaluation or depreciation. It claims that while future values of the trade balance and current exchange rate are positively correlated, the past values of the trade balance and current exchange rate are negatively correlated. While China’s aggregate trade flows with the rest of the world conforms to the S-Curve hypothesis, disaggregating trade flows by trading partner reveals that not all partners are affected equally by devaluation. Indeed, trade with 8 out of the 24 partners does not support the S-Curve hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assesses the impact of the RMB-dollar exchange rate and volatility on U.S. agricultural exports to and imports from China. Two measures of volatility are employed: one based on the moving standard deviation of the real RMB-dollar rate, the other a GARCH-based measure which yields more significant results. We find that exchange rate volatility has a significantly positive long-run effect only on export earnings of the nonagricultural sector. On the other hand, depreciation of the dollar has an expected long-run effect on the import value of the nonagricultural sector and on export earnings of the agricultural sector. No matter which model we consider, the level of economic activity in both countries seems to be the major long-run determinant of trade flows in both directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past half century, Western Europe has been part of varying currency regimes. Yet, whether under Bretton Woods, the European Monetary System, or the Euro, exchange-rate fluctuations have had an influence on these countries' trade flows with the United States at the national and the industry level. This study looks at the case of Spain, examining the role of real exchange-rate fluctuations on trade with the United States for 74 industries. We find that the trade balances of only 40 industries are cointegrated with their macroeconomic determinants, but that 26 of these respond positively in the long run to a real depreciation. While industry characteristics do not seem to explain which industries are more likely to do this, we find that a relatively large share of industries in the Machinery sector see their trade balances improve after a depreciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange-rate risk is often thought to reduce international trade flows, but numerous theoretical and empirical analyses have pointed toward positive as well as negative effects. This is particularly true when bilateral trade flows for individual industries are estimated. In this study, we extend the literature to the case of Japanese trade with China for 110 import industries and 95 export industries. Aggregate Japanese exports, but not imports, respond to real exchange rate volatility in the long run, while most individual export and import industries respond in the short run. Although many individual Japanese import industries are affected in the long run by risk, mostly negatively, this is even more the case for exporters. A larger proportion of Japanese export industries are affected by exchange rate uncertainty for most industry sectors. Manufacturing exports are particularly vulnerable to this risk, with a large share responding negatively to increased volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows continues to occupy the international finance literature. More recent studies have deviated from the traditional approach of using aggregate trade flows and have employed trade data at commodity level. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of 118 US exporting industries to Thailand and 41 US importing industries from Thailand. We find that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries. In the long-run, the main determinants of the trade flows are the level of economic activity in both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, when we apply the technique to the bilateral trade balance between the USA and Hong Kong, we find neither short-run nor long-run effects. Suspecting that this could be due to aggregation, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and apply the same method. While we find short-run negative effects in the majority of industries, positive long-run effects are observed in 58 of 108 industries, supporting the J-Curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that were concerned with the impact of depreciation of the ringgit on the Malaysian trade balance employed data either between Malaysia and rest of the world or between Malaysia and each of her major trading partners. Specifically, the bilateral trade balance between Malaysia and the US is shown to be insensitive to the real bilateral ringgit–dollar rate. In this article we wonder if disaggregating trade flows between Malaysia and the US by commodity could help us to discover any significant effects that the real exchange rate could have. We consider 101 industries that export from US to Malaysia and 17 industries that import from Malaysia. While majority of the industries showed short-run sensitivity to the real bilateral exchange rate, short-run effects lasted into the long run almost in half of the industries in both group. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]