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Objective: The pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with genetic predisposition and immunological changes during presymptomatic disease. Differences in immune cell subset numbers and phenotypes between T1D patients and healthy controls have been described; however, the role and function of these changes in the pathogenesis is still unclear. Here we aimed to analyze the transcriptomic landscapes of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) during presymptomatic disease. Methods: Transcriptomic differences in PBMCs were compared between cases positive for islet autoantibodies and autoantibody negative controls (9 case–control pairs) and further in monocytes and lymphocytes separately in autoantibody positive subjects and control subjects (25 case–control pairs). Results: No significant differential expression was found in either data set. However, when gene set enrichment analysis was performed, the gene sets “defence response to virus” (FDR

Background Genetic heterogeneity in type I interferon (IFN)–related gene IFI44L may account for variable susceptibility to respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in children. Methods In 2 prospective, population-based birth cohorts, the STEPS Study and the FinnBrain Birth Cohort Study, IFI44L genotypes for rs273259 and rs1333969 were determined in relation to the development of RTIs until 1 or 2 years of age, respectively. At age 3 months, whole-blood transcriptional profiles were analyzed and nasal samples were tested for respiratory viruses in a subset of children. Results In the STEPS Study (n = 1135), IFI44L minor/minor gene variants were associated with lower rates of acute otitis media episodes (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 0.77 [95% confidence interval, .61–.96] for rs273259 and 0.74 [.55–.99] for rs1333969) and courses of antibiotics for RTIs (0.76 [.62–.95] and 0.73 [.56–.97], respectively. In the FinnBrain cohort (n = 971), IFI44L variants were associated with lower rates of RTIs and courses of antibiotics for RTIs. In respiratory virus–positive 3-month-old children, IFI44L gene variants were associated with decreased expression levels of IFI44L and several other IFN-related genes. Conclusions Variant forms of IFI44L gene were protective against early-childhood RTIs or acute otitis media, and they attenuated IFN pathway activation by respiratory viruses.

Blood myxovirus resistance protein A (MxA) has broad antiviral activity, and it is a potential biomarker for symptomatic virus infections. Limited data is available of MxA in coinciding viral and bacterial infections. We investigated blood MxA levels in children hospitalized with a febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) with or without simultaneous respiratory virus infection. We conducted a prospective observational study of 43 children hospitalized with febrile UTI. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were collected at admission and tested for 16 respiratory viruses by nucleic acid detection methods. Respiratory symptoms were recorded, and blood MxA levels were determined. The median age of study children was 4 months (interquartile range, 2–14 months). A respiratory virus was detected in 17 (40%) children with febrile UTI. Of the virus-positive children with febrile UTI, 7 (41%) had simultaneous respiratory symptoms. Blood MxA levels were higher in virus-positive children with respiratory symptoms (median, 778 [interquartile range, 535–2538] μg/L) compared to either virus-negative (155 [94–301] μg/L, P P = 0.006) children without respiratory symptoms at presentation with febrile UTI. MxA differentiated virus-positive children with respiratory symptoms from virus-negative without symptoms by an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.96. Respiratory viruses were frequently detected in children with febrile UTI. In UTI with simultaneous respiratory symptoms, host antiviral immune response was demonstrated by elevated blood MxA protein levels. MxA protein could be a robust biomarker of symptomatic viral infection in children with febrile UTI.

Context Characterization of slow progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D) may reveal novel means for prevention of T1D. Slow progressors might carry natural immunomodulators that delay β-cell destruction and mediate preservation of β-cell function. Objective To identify demographic, genetic, and immunological characteristics of slow progression from seroconversion to clinical T1D. Design HLA-susceptible children (n = 7410) were observed from birth for islet cell antibody (ICA), insulin autoantibody (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), and islet antigen-2 autoantibodies (IA-2A), and for clinical T1D. Disease progression that lasted ≥7.26 years (slowest) quartile from initial seroconversion to diagnosis was considered slow. Autoantibody and genetic characteristics including 45 non-HLA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) predisposing to T1D were analyzed. Results By the end of 2015, 1528 children (21%) had tested autoantibody positive and 247 (16%) had progressed to T1D. The median delay from seroconversion to diagnosis was 8.7 years in slow (n = 62, 25%) and 3.0 years in other progressors. Compared with other progressors, slow progressors were less often multipositive, had lower ICA and IAA titers, and lower frequency of IA-2A at seroconversion. Slow progressors were born more frequently in the fall, whereas other progressors were born more often in the spring. Compared with multipositive nonprogressors, slow progressors were younger, had higher ICA titers, and higher frequency of IAA and multiple autoantibodies at seroconversion. We found no differences in the distributions of non-HLA SNPs between progressors. Conclusions We observed differences in autoantibody characteristics and the season of birth among progressors, but no characteristics present at seroconversion that were specifically predictive for slow progression.

Context Children with initial autoantibodies to either insulin (IAA) or glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) differ in peak age of seroconversion and have different type 1 diabetes (T1D) risk gene associations, suggesting heterogeneity in the disease process. Objective To compare the associations of age at seroconversion, HLA risk, and specificity of secondary autoantibodies with the progression of islet autoimmunity between children with either IAA or GADA as their first autoantibody. Design and methods A cohort of 15,253 children with HLA-associated increased risk of T1D participated in a follow-up program in which islet autoantibodies were regularly measured. The median follow-up time was 6.7 years. Spearman correlation, Kaplan-Meier survival plots, and Cox proportional-hazard models were used for statistical analyses. Results Persistent positivity for at least one of the tested autoantibodies was detected in 998 children; 388 of children progressed to clinical T1D. Young age at initial seroconversion was associated with a high probability of expansion of IAA-initiated autoimmunity and progression to clinical diabetes, whereas expansion of GADA-initiated autoimmunity and progression to diabetes were not dependent on initial seroconversion age. The strength of HLA risk affected the progression of both IAA- and GADA-initiated autoimmunity. The simultaneous appearance of two other autoantibodies increased the rate of progression to diabetes compared with that of a single secondary autoantibody among subjects with GADA-initiated autoimmunity but not among those with IAA as the first autoantibody. Conclusions Findings emphasize the differences in the course of islet autoimmunity initiated by either IAA or GADA supporting heterogeneity in the pathogenic process.

Aims/Hypothesis: Evidence of the role of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in the pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) has remained inconclusive. Our aim was to elucidate the possible role of CMV infection in the initiation of islet autoimmunity and in the progression to clinical T1D among children with human leukocyte antigen (HLA)‐conferred T1D risk. Methods: A total of 1402 children from the prospective Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study were analyzed for CMV‐specific IgG antibodies during early childhood. All the children carried HLA‐DQ genotypes associated with increased risk for T1D. The effect of CMV infection on the appearance of T1D‐associated autoantibodies (insulin autoantibodies [IAA], glutamic acid decarboxylase [GADA], and insulinoma antigen‐2 [IA‐2A], n = 356) and on the progression rate to clinical T1D (n = 233) were analyzed with Kaplan‐Meier survival analysis and Log‐rank test. Results: Early childhood CMV infection was inversely associated with the development of T1D during childhood. Cumulative progression to T1D was decreased in subjects with an early CMV infection (P = 0.035). In further analyses, the effect of early CMV infection on the initiation of islet autoimmunity and progression to clinical T1D were examined separately. Interestingly, early CMV infection did not affect the appearance of T1D‐associated autoantibodies but a decelerating effect was observed on the progression rate from islet autoimmunity to clinical T1D (P = 0.015). Conclusion: Our results suggest that an early childhood CMV infection may decelerate the progression from islet autoimmunity to clinical T1D among at‐risk children and may thus protect these children from progressing to T1D during childhood.

Objective We aimed to clarify the association of various HLA risk alleles with different types of autoantibodies initiating islet specific autoimmunity. Methods Follow-up cohorts from the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study and children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes from the Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Register (FPDR) were analyzed for the presence of autoantibodies to insulin (IAA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), IA-2 antigen (IA-2A) and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A) and genotyped for HLA DR/DQ alleles. In the DIPP study autoantibodies were regularly analyzed from birth up to 15 years of age. Results In the DIPP cohort 621 children developed one single persistent autoantibody, GADA in 284, IAA in 268 and IA-2A in 40 cases. Highly significant differences in the specificity of the first autoantibody were observed between HLA genotypes. Homozygotes for the DR3-DQ2 haplotype had almost exclusively GADA as the first autoantibody whereas a more even distribution between GADA and IAA was found in DR3-DQ2/DR4-DQ8 as well as DR3-DQ/x and DR4-DQ8/x genotypes (x referring to neutral haplotypes). In DR4-DQ8 positive genotypes with the DRB1*04:01 allele IAA was more often the first autoantibody than in DRB1*04:04 positive genotypes. Various neutral haplotypes also significantly affected the relative proportions of different initial autoantibodies. These findings were confirmed and expanded in a series of 1591 T1D children under the age of 10 years from FPDR. Conclusions These results emphasize the importance of HLA class II polymorphisms in the recognition of autoantigen epitopes in the initiation of various pathways of the autoimmune response. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A declining first-phase insulin response (FPIR) is associated with positivity for multiple islet autoantibodies, irrespective of class II HLA DR-DQ genotype. We examined the associations of FPIR with genetic variants outside the HLA DR-DQ region in the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study in children with and without multiple autoantibodies. Association between FPIR and class I alleles A*24 and B*39 and eight single nucleotide polymorphisms outside the HLA region were analyzed in 438 children who had one or more FPIR results available after seroconversion. Hierarchical linear mixed models were used to analyze repeated measurements of FPIR. In children with multiple autoantibodies, the change in FPIR over time was significantly different between those with various PTPN2 (rs45450798), FUT2 (rs601338), CTSH (rs3825932), and IKZF4 (rs1701704) genotypes in at least one of the models. In general, children carrying susceptibility alleles for type 1 diabetes experienced a more rapid decline in insulin secretion compared with children without susceptibility alleles. The presence of the class I HLA A*24 allele was also associated with a steeper decline of FPIR over time in children with multiple autoantibodies. Certain genetic variants outside the class II HLA region may have a significant impact on the longitudinal pattern of FPIR.

Objective The HLA-DR/DQ region remains the major determinant of susceptibility to type 1 diabetes (T1D) despite the more than 50 risk affecting loci outside human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region that have been identified. We aimed at developing a simple risk estimation based on HLA class II genotyping, which was also tested by analyzing HLA class II effect on the autoantibody seroconversion and further progression to diabetes. Subjects and methods A total of 2991 trio families with a diabetic child from the Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Register were genotyped and the risk contributed by each DR-DQ haplotype calculated through transmission analysis. The genotype risk was estimated based on the summary effect of haplotypes. Genotype grouping was further tested in a subcohort of the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) Study Results The summary effect of haplotypes was generally seen in genotypes, while the expected synergistic effect of DR3-DQ2 and DR4-DQ8 (DRB1*04:03 excluded) combination was also clear in the T1D risk association analysis. This highest risk DR/DQ genotype was found in 21.6% of patients and 2.0% of controls, odds ratio (OR) = 13.2 (10.1–17.2), whereas the lowest risk genotype contained only 0.8% of patients and 28.0% of controls, OR = 0.02 (0.01–0.03). In the subcohort from the DIPP study the risk grades correlated clearly with seroconversion for islet autoantibodies and T1D development. In contrast, DR/DQ risk groups did not associate with the progression rate from advanced autoimmunity to clinical diabetes. Conclusions Class II HLA genotype groups improve the estimation of T1D risk. Class II effect is limited to the early phase of the disease process characterized by seroconversion for islet autoantibodies.

Objective The relationship between patterns of islet autoantibodies at diagnosis and specificity of the first islet autoantibody at the initiation of autoimmunity was analyzed with the aim of identifying patterns informative of the primary autoantibodies. Methods Information about a single first autoantibody at seroconversion and autoantibody data at diagnosis were available for 128 children participating in the follow-up cohort of the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study. Autoantibody data at diagnosis and genotyping results were also obtained from children in the Finnish Pediatric Diabetes Register (FPDR). Results Insulin autoantibodies (IAA) were the most common primary antibodies (N = 68), followed by those for glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA; N = 38), IA-2 antigen (IA-2A; N = 13), and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8A; N = 9), whereas at diagnosis, IA-2A were most frequent (N = 103), followed by IAA (N = 78), ZnT8A (N = 73), and GADA (N = 71). Accordingly, the presence of many specific autoantibodies at diagnosis was due to the secondary antibodies appearing after primary antibodies, and in some cases, the primary autoantibody, most often IAA, had already disappeared at the time of diagnosis. Many of the autoantibody combinations present at diagnosis could be assembled into groups associated with either IAA or GADA as first autoantibodies. These combinations, in children diagnosed below the age of 10 years in the FPDR, were found to be strongly associated with risk genotypes in either INS (IAA first) or IKZF4-ERBB3 (GADA first) genes. Conclusions Autoantibody patterns at diagnosis may be informative on primary autoantibodies initiating autoimmunity in young children developing type 1 diabetes.

We analyzed demographic and genetic differences between children with various diabetes-associated autoantibodies reflecting the autoimmune process. In a prospective birth cohort comprising children with HLA-conferred susceptibility to type 1 diabetes (T1D), the pattern of autoantibody appearance was analyzed in 520 children with advanced β-cell autoimmunity associated with high risk for disease. In 315 cases, a single biochemical autoantibody could be identified in the first positive sample as insulin (insulin autoantibody [IAA]) in 180, as GAD (GAD antibody [GADA]) in 107, and as IA-2 antigen (IA-2 antibody [IA-2A]) in 28. The age at seroconversion differed significantly between the three groups (P = 0.003). IAA as the first autoantibody showed a peak time of appearance during the second year of life, whereas GADA as the first autoantibody peaked later, between 3 and 5 years of age. The risk-associated insulin gene rs689 A/A genotypes were more frequent in children with IAA as the first autoantibody compared with the other children (P = 0.002). The primary autoantigen in the development of β-cell autoimmunity and T1D seems to strongly correlate with age and genetic factors, indicating heterogeneity in the initiation of the disease process.

Aims/hypothesis In this study, we aimed to characterise rapid progressors to type 1 diabetes among children recruited from the general population, on the basis of HLA-conferred disease susceptibility. Methods We monitored 7410 HLA-predisposed children participating in the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) study for the development of beta cell autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes from birth over a median follow-up time of 16.2 years (range 0.9-21.1 years). Islet cell antibodies (ICA) and autoantibodies to insulin (IAA), GAD (GADA) and islet antigen 2 (IA-2A) were assessed as markers of beta cell autoimmunity. Rapid progression was defined as progression to clinical type 1 diabetes within 1.5 years of autoantibody seroconversion. We analysed the association between rapid progression and demographic and autoantibody characteristics as well as genetic markers, including 25 non-HLA SNPs predisposing to type 1 diabetes. Results Altogether, 1550 children (21%) tested positive for at least one diabetes-associated autoantibody in at least two samples, and 248 (16%) of seroconverters progressed to type 1 diabetes by the end of 2015. The median time from seroconversion to diagnosis was 0.51 years in rapid progressors (n = 42, 17%) and 5.4 years in slower progressors. Rapid progression was observed both among young ( 7 years), resulting in a double-peak distribution of seroconversion age. Compared with slower progressors, rapid progressors had a higher frequency of positivity for multiple (>= 2) autoantibodies and had higher titres of ICA, IAA and IA-2A at seroconversion, and there was a higher prevalence of the secretor genotype in the FUT2 gene among those carrying the high-risk HLA genotype. Compared with autoantibody-positive non-progressors, rapid progressors were younger, were more likely to carry the high-risk HLA genotype and a predisposing SNP in the PTPN22 gene, had higher frequency of ICA, IAA, GADA and IA-2A positivity and multipositivity, and had higher titres of all four autoantibodies at seroconversion. Conclusions/interpretation At seroconversion, individuals with rapid progression to type 1 diabetes were characterised by a younger age, higher autoantibody titres, positivity for multiple autoantibodies and higher prevalence of a FUT2 SNP. The double-peak profile for seroconversion age among the rapid progressors demonstrates for the first time that rapid progression may take place not only in young children but also in children in early puberty. Rapid progressors might benefit from careful clinical follow-up and early preventive measures.

We set out to analyze the role of two major non-HLA gene polymorphisms associated with type 1 diabetes (T1D), PTPN22 1858C/T and insulin gene INS−23 A/T in progression to clinical T1D after the appearance of β-cell autoimmunity. The study population comprised 249 children with HLA-associated T1D susceptibility. All subjects were persistently positive for at least one of the T1D-associated biochemically defined autoantibodies (insulin autoantibody, GAD antibody, or IA-2 antibody), and 136 subjects presented with T1D over a median follow-up of 4.3 years (range 0.0–12.5) after the appearance of the first autoantibody. The PTPN22 1858T allele was strongly associated with progression to T1D after the appearance of the first biochemically defined β-cell autoantibody (hazard ratio 1.68 [95% CI 1.09–2.60], P = 0.02 Cox regression analysis, multivariate test), and the effect remained similar when analyzed after the appearance of the second autoantibody (P = 0.013), whereas INS−23 HphI AA genotype was not associated with progression to clinical diabetes after the appearance of the first or second autoantibody (P = 0.38 and P = 0.88, respectively). The effect of the INS risk genotype seems to be limited to the induction and early phases of β-cell autoimmunity, but the PTPN22 1858T allele instead affects the initiation and late progression phase of diabetes-associated autoimmunity.

Background Enteral virus infections and early introduction of cow's milk (CM)-based formula are among the suggested triggers of type 1 diabetes (T1D)-associated autoimmunity, although studies on their role have remained contradictory. Here, we aimed to analyse whether interactions between these factors might clarify the controversies. Materials The study population comprised 107 subjects developing positivity for at least two T1D-associated autoantibodies and 446 control subjects from the Finnish diabetes prediction and prevention cohort. Enterovirus, rotavirus, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and bovine insulin-binding antibodies were analysed from prospective serum samples at 3–24 months of age. Data on infant cow's milk exposure were available for 472 subjects: 251 subjects were exposed to cow's milk before 3 months of age and 221 subjects later in infancy. Results Signs of an enterovirus infection by 12 months of age were associated with the appearance of autoimmunity among children who were exposed to cow's milk before 3 months of age. Cox regression analysis revealed a combined effect of enterovirus infection and early cow's milk exposure for the development of ICA and any of the biochemically defined autoantibodies (p = 0.001), of IAA (p = 0.002), GADA (p = 0.001) and IA-2A (p = 0.013). Conclusions The effect of enterovirus infection on the appearance of T1D-associated autoimmunity seems to be modified by exposure to cow's milk in early infancy suggesting an interaction between these factors. Moreover, these results provide an explanation for the controversial findings obtained when analysing the effect of any single one of these factors on the appearance of T1D-associated autoimmunity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

OBJECTIVE Class II alleles define the main HLA effect on type 1 diabetes, but there is an independent effect of certain class I alleles. Class II and class I molecules are differently involved in the initiation and effector phases of the immune response, suggesting that class I alleles would be important determinants in the rate of β-cell destruction. To test this hypothesis we analyzed the role of HLA class I and class II gene polymorphisms in the progression from diabetes-associated autoimmunity to clinical disease. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The effect of HLA-DR-DQ haplotypes and a panel of class I HLA-A and -B alleles on the progression from autoantibody seroconversion to clinical diabetes was studied in 249 children persistently positive for at least one biochemical diabetes-associated autoantibody in addition to islet cell autoantibody. RESULTS The progression to clinical disease was separately analyzed after the appearance of the first and the second persistent biochemical autoantibody using Cox regression. Multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant protective effect of the A*03 allele (odds ratio [OR] 0.61, P = 0.042 after the first and OR 0.55, P = 0.027 after the second autoantibody), whereas the B*39 allele had a promoting effect after seroconversion for the second autoantibody (OR 2.4, P = 0.014). When children with the DR3/DR4 genotype were separately analyzed, HLA-B*39 had a strong effect (OR 6.6, P = 0.004 and OR 7.5, P = 0.007, after the appearance of the first and the second autoantibody, respectively). The protective effect of A*03 was seen only among children without the DR3/DR4 combination. CONCLUSIONS These results confirm that class I alleles affect the progression of diabetes-associated autoimmunity and demonstrate interactions between class I and class II alleles.

Prediction of type 1 diabetes is based on the detection of multiple islet autoantibodies in subjects who are at increased genetic risk. Prediction of the timing of diagnosis is challenging, however. We assessed the utility of HbA1c levels in predicting the clinical disease in genetically predisposed children with multiple autoantibodies. Cord blood samples from 168,055 newborn infants were screened for class II HLA genotypes in Finland, and 14,876 children with increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes were invited to participate in regular follow-ups, including screening for diabetes-associated autoantibodies. When two or more autoantibodies were detected, HbA1c levels were analyzed at each visit. During follow-up, multiple (two or more) autoantibodies developed in 466 children; type 1 diabetes was diagnosed in 201 of these children (43%, progressors), while 265 children remained disease free (nonprogressors) by December 2011. A 10% increase in HbA1c levels in samples obtained 3–12 months apart predicted the diagnosis of clinical disease (hazard ratio [HR] 5.7 [95% CI 4.1–7.9]) after a median time of 1.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 0.6–3.1 years) from the observed rise of HbA1c. If the HbA1c level was ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) in two consecutive samples, the median time to diagnosis was 0.9 years (IQR 0.3–1.5, HR 11.9 [95% CI 8.8–16.0]). In conclusion, HbA1c is a useful biochemical marker when predicting the time to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with multiple autoantibodies.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease causing the destruction of pancreatic beta cells. The onset of clinical T1D is preceded by a time period called pre-diabetes, the duration of which varies widely. However, not all subjects developing beta-cell autoimmunity progress to clinical T1D. The inherited risk for T1D is determined by the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II genes, HLA class I genes, and several loci outside the HLA area. Although the role of the genetic risk variants in disease pathogenesis is not completely understood, some of the variants affecting disease risk are thought to influence the initiation of beta-cell autoimmunity whereas others seem to play a role during the later stages of the autoimmune process. In this review we describe the current knowledge on the genetic factors mediating the fate of already-established beta-cell autoimmunity and the rate of beta-cell destruction.

Genetic heterogeneity may affect the analysis of risk factors associated with type 1 diabetes (T1D). We studied the effect of the INS -23A/T, PTPN22 1858C/T, and CTLA-4 +49A/G polymorphisms on the emergence of T1D-associated autoimmunity in children exposed to cow's milk (CM) based formula during early or late infancy. The study comprised of 156 children from the Finnish DIPP cohort who had developed >or= 2 types of autoantibodies (ICA, IAA, GADA or IA-2A) or clinical T1D and 563 control children. The PTPN22 1858T allele was associated with the appearance of the autoantibodies and clinical T1D among children exposed to CM formula before the age of 6 months (PTPN22: for all P

IMPORTANCE: Type 1 diabetes usually has a preclinical phase identified by circulating islet autoantibodies, but the rate of progression to diabetes after seroconversion to islet autoantibodies is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine the rate of progression to diabetes after islet autoantibody seroconversion. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were pooled from prospective cohort studies performed in Colorado (recruitment, 1993-2006), Finland (recruitment, 1994-2009), and Germany (recruitment, 1989-2006) examining children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes for the development of insulin autoantibodies, glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 (GAD65) autoantibodies, insulinoma antigen 2 (IA2) autoantibodies, and diabetes. Participants were all children recruited and followed up in the 3 studies (Colorado, 1962; Finland, 8597; Germany, 2818). Follow-up assessment in each study was concluded by July 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary analysis was the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with 2 or more autoantibodies. The secondary analysis was the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with 1 autoantibody or no autoantibodies. RESULTS: Progression to type 1 diabetes at 10-year follow-up after islet autoantibody seroconversion in 585 children with multiple islet autoantibodies was 69.7% (95% CI, 65.1%-74.3%), and in 474 children with a single islet autoantibody was 14.5% (95% CI, 10.3%-18.7%). Risk of diabetes in children who had no islet autoantibodies was 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2%-0.6%) by the age of 15 years. Progression to type 1 diabetes in the children with multiple islet autoantibodies was faster for children who had islet autoantibody seroconversion younger than age 3 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.65 [95% CI, 1.30-2.09; P < .001]; 10-year risk, 74.9% [95% CI, 69.7%-80.1%]) vs children 3 years or older (60.9% [95% CI, 51.5%-70.3%]); for children with the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype DR3/DR4-DQ8 (HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.09-1.68; P = .007]; 10-year risk, 76.6% [95% CI, 69.2%-84%]) vs other HLA genotypes (66.2% [95% CI, 60.2%-72.2%]); and for girls (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.04-1.58; P = .02];10-year risk, 74.8% [95% CI, 68.0%-81.6%]) vs boys (65.7% [95% CI, 59.3%-72.1%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The majority of children at risk of type 1 diabetes who had multiple islet autoantibody seroconversion progressed to diabetes over the next 15 years. Future prevention studies should focus on this high-risk population.