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PURPOSE The microsatellite instability (MSI) or deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) phenotype is usually regarded as a single biologic entity, given the absence of comparative analyses regarding prognosis and response to chemotherapy between sporadic and familial dMMR cancers. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with stage III colon cancers were randomly assigned to FOLFOX (leucovorin, fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin) with or without cetuximab in 2 large adjuvant phase III trials (N = 5,577). Among patients with MSI and KRAS exon 2 wild-type (WT) tumors, the prognostic and predictive impacts of sporadic versus familial dMMR cancers and BRAF V600E mutational status were determined. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess disease-free survival (DFS) by treatment arm, adjusting for age, sex, tumor grade, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, pT/pN stage, and primary tumor location. RESULTS Among patients with MSI status with complete data for dMMR mechanism analysis (n = 354), 255 (72%) had sporadic ( BRAF mutation and/or MLH1 methylation) and 99 (28%) had familial tumors ( BRAF WT and unmethylated MLH1 or loss of MSH2/MSH6/PMS2 protein expression). A large proportion of dMMR sporadic tumors were mutated for BRAF (n = 200). In patients treated with FOLFOX, DFS did not differ statistically by dMMR mechanism, whereas in patients treated with FOLFOX plus cetuximab, those with sporadic tumors had worse DFS than those with familial cancers (multivariable hazard ratio, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.02 to 7.08; P = .04). Considering the predictive utility, the interaction between treatment and dMMR mechanism was significant ( P = .03). Furthermore, a nonsignificant trend toward a deleterious effect of adding cetuximab to FOLFOX was observed in patients with BRAF-mutant but not BRAF WT tumors. CONCLUSION The addition of cetuximab to adjuvant FOLFOX was associated with shorter DFS in patients with sporadic dMMR colon cancer. Additional studies are needed to validate these results in metastatic disease.

Background: How can a clinician and patient incorporate survival and toxicity information into a single expression of comparative treatment benefit? Sloan et al. recently extended the ½ standard deviation concept for judging the clinical importance of findings from clinical trials to survival and tumor response endpoints. A new method using this approach to combine survival and toxicity effect sizes from clinical trials into a quality-adjusted effect size is presented. Methods: The quality-adjusted survival effect size (QASES) is calculated as survival effect size (ESS) minus the calibrated toxicity effect sizes (EST) (QASES=ESS-EST). This combined effect size can be weighted to adjust for the relative emphasis placed by the patient on survival and toxicity effects. Results: As an example, consider clinical trial NCCTG 89–20-52 which randomized patients to once-daily thoracic radiotherapy (ODTRT) versus twice-daily treatment of thoracic radiotherapy (TDRT) for the treatment of lung cancer. The ODTRT vs. TDRT arms had median survival time of 22 vs. 20 months (p=0.49) and toxicity rate of 39% vs. 54%, (p

Background: Prior studies have supported an inverse association between physical activity and colon cancer risk and suggest that higher physical activity may also improve cancer survival. Among participants in a phase III adjuvant trial for stage III colon cancer, we assessed the association of physical activity around the time of cancer diagnosis with subsequent outcomes. Methods: Before treatment arm randomization (FOLFOX or FOLFOX + cetuximab), study participants completed a questionnaire including items regarding usual daily activity level and frequency of participation in recreational physical activity (N = 1,992). Using multivariable Cox models, we calculated HRs for associations of aspects of physical activity with disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: Over follow-up, 505 participants died and 541 experienced a recurrence. Overall, 75% of participants reported recreational physical activity at least several times a month; for participants who reported physical activity at least that often (vs. once a month or less), the HRs for DFS and OS were 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69–0.99] and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.63–0.93), respectively. There was no evidence of material effect modification in these associations by patient or tumor attributes, except that physical activity was more strongly inversely associated with OS in patients with stage T3 versus T4 tumors (Pinteraction = 0.03). Conclusions: These findings suggest that higher physical activity around the time of colon cancer diagnosis may be associated with more favorable colon cancer outcomes. Impact: Our findings support further research on whether colon cancer survival may be enhanced by physical activity. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 696–703. ©2018 AACR.

BACKGROUND\ud Since 2004, a regimen of 6 months of treatment with oxaliplatin plus a fluoropyrimidine has been standard adjuvant therapy in patients with stage III colon cancer. However, since oxaliplatin is associated with cumulative neurotoxicity, a shorter duration of therapy could spare toxic effects and health expenditures.\ud \ud METHODS\ud We performed a prospective, preplanned, pooled analysis of six randomized, phase 3 trials that were conducted concurrently to evaluate the noninferiority of adjuvant therapy with either FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin) or CAPOX (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) administered for 3 months, as compared with 6 months. The primary end point was the rate of disease-free survival at 3 years. Noninferiority of 3 months versus 6 months of therapy could be claimed if the upper limit of the two-sided 95% confidence interval of the hazard ratio did not exceed 1.12.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud After 3263 events of disease recurrence or death had been reported in 12,834 patients, the noninferiority of 3 months of treatment versus 6 months was not confirmed in the overall study population (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.15). Noninferiority of the shorter regimen was seen for CAPOX (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.06) but not for FOLFOX (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.26). In an exploratory analysis of the combined regimens, among the patients with T1, T2, or T3 and N1 cancers, 3 months of therapy was noninferior to 6 months, with a 3-year rate of disease-free survival of 83.1% and 83.3%, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.12). Among patients with cancers that were classified as T4, N2, or both, the disease-free survival rate for a 6-month duration of therapy was superior to that for a 3-month duration (64.4% vs. 62.7%) for the combined treatments (hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.23; P=0.01 for superiority).\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud Among patients with stage III colon cancer receiving adjuvant therapy with FOLFOX or CAPOX, noninferiority of 3 months of therapy, as compared with 6 months, was not confirmed in the overall population. However, in patients treated with CAPOX, 3 months of therapy was as effective as 6 months, particularly in the lower-risk subgroup. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others.)

This commentary describes the progress of the SEAL [Surrogate Endpoints for Aggressive Lymphoma] research group and invites collaboration in sharing data to continue building a large database of individual patient data from multiple clinical trials in DLBCL.

Background: Family history of colon cancer often portends increased risk of disease development; however, the prognostic significance of family history related to disease and survival outcomes is unclear. Methods: To investigate the relationship between family history of colorectal cancer and survival outcomes in stage III colon cancer patients, a prospective cohort of 1,935 patients with resected stage III colon cancer enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (N0147), comparing the standard of care FOLFOX to FOLFOX with cetuximab, was studied. Patients completed a baseline questionnaire on family history and were followed every 6 months until death or 5 years after randomization. Results: We examined the endpoints of disease-free survival (DFS), time to recurrence (TTR) and overall survival (OS), comparing patients with a positive versus negative family history of colorectal cancer. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for patients with a positive family history were 0.95 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78–1.16] for DFS, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.76–1.16) for TTR, and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.74–1.15) for OS (all adjusted P>0.47). A non-significant trend toward improved DFS (P=0.17; adjusted P=0.34) was observed when 2 or more relatives were affected as compared to 0 relatives (multivariate HR: 0.72; 95% CI, 0.45–1.15), whereas subjects with histories of 0 or 1 affected relatives had similar DFS (multivariate HR for 1 vs. 0: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.81–1.24). Interactions of the molecular factors KRAS, BRAF, and MMR with family history were also explored. The only significant interaction was for deficient MMR (dMMR) and first-degree relatives with a family history of colorectal cancer (0 vs. 1 vs. 2+ relatives) for a benefit on OS (univariate P=0.001), which remained significant after adjusting for other factors (P=0.029). Conclusions: Among patients with stage III resected colon cancer treated with adjuvant FOLFOX, a family history of colorectal cancer did not significantly impact DFS, TTR, or OS outcomes, with the exception of patients with dMMR-expressing tumors.

The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the utility of progression‐free survival (PFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in mesothelioma based on clinical trials data. Given the short postprogression survival and moderate correlation between PFS and OS, the study found no evidence that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in mesothelioma., Purpose. The aim of this study was to investigate whether progression‐free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in malignant mesothelioma. Materials and Methods. Individual data were collected from 15 Cancer and Leukemia Group B (615 patients) and 2 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (101 patients) phase II trials. The effects of 5 risk factors for OS and PFS, including age, histology, performance status (PS), white blood cell count, and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk score, were used in the analysis. Individual‐level surrogacy was assessed by Kendall's tau through a Clayton bivariate Copula survival (CBCS) model. Summary‐level surrogacy was evaluated via the association between logarithms of the hazard ratio (log HR)—log HROS and log HRPFS—measured in R2 from a weighted least‐square (WLS) regression model and the CBCS model. Results. The median PFS for all patients was 3.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8–3.5 months) and the median OS was 7.2 months (95% CI, 6.5–8.0 months). Moderate correlations between PFS and OS were observed across all risk factors at the individual level, with Kendall's tau ranging from 0.46 to 0.47. The summary‐level surrogacy varied among risk factors. The Copula R2 ranged from 0.51 for PS to 0.78 for histology. The WLS R2 ranged from 0.26 for EORTC and PS to 0.67 for age. Conclusions. The analyses demonstrated low to moderate individual‐level surrogacy between PFS and OS. At the summary level, the surrogacy between PFS and OS varied significantly across different risk factors. With a short postprogression survival and a moderate correlation between PFS and OS, there is no evidence that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in malignant mesothelioma. Implications for Practice. For better disease management and for more efficient clinical trial designs, it is important to know if progression‐free survival (PFS) is a good surrogate endpoint for overall survival in malignant mesothelioma. With a relatively large database of 17 phase II trials and 716 patients from Cancer and Leukemia Group B and North Central Cancer Treatment Group, we conducted statistical analyses and found that there is no evidence to suggest that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS for malignant mesothelioma. Future research work is needed to find alternative surrogate endpoints for OS.

Context: In planning oncology phase II and phase III clinical trials, the size of the expected effect for endpoints such as tumor response and overall survival are key parameters driving the sample size. We applied the empirical rule effect size approach, also known as the ½ standard deviation (SD) method, to define clinically significant effect sizes for overall survival and tumor response endpoints in a series of clinical trials. Methods: The observed effect size was calculated for 12 phase II and 27 phase III completed cancer clinical trials identified by experts as being notable. Results: The effect sizes of the phase II and phase III clinical trials ranged from -0.32 to 0.84 and 0.01 to 0.44 SDs respectively. Effect sizes for all but four of the phase II trials were less than a ½ SD. For phase III studies, the effect sizes for all but one study were below 0.4 SD and roughly 67% of them had an effect size smaller than 0.2 SDs. There were no differences across disease sites, although colorectal and breast trials did have slightly larger effect sizes. Conclusions: Even highly noteworthy existing phase II and phase III oncology clinical trials rarely achieve the ½ SD level of clinical significance. This method allows for more ready interpretation of the clinical significance of overall survival and tumor response endpoints. It allows for cross-study comparison across different endpoints. The method also facilitates study design as it directly builds clinical significance into the study.

Metformin might have antineoplastic properties against colon cancer (CC). Patients with stage III CC enrolled in the N0147 study completed a questionnaire regarding diabetes mellitus (DM) and metformin use. Patients with stage III CC undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy who used metformin before the diagnosis of CC experienced survival outcomes similar to those for non-DM patients and DM patients without metformin use., Background. Preclinical and epidemiological data suggest that metformin might have antineoplastic properties against colon cancer (CC). However, the effect of metformin use on patient survival in stage III CC after curative resection is unknown. The survival outcomes were comparable regardless of the duration of metformin use. Patients and Methods. Before randomization to FOLFOX (folinic acid, 5-fluorouracil, oxaliplatin) with or without cetuximab, 1,958 patients with stage III CC enrolled in the N0147 study completed a questionnaire with information on diabetes mellitus (DM) and metformin use. Cox models were used to assess the association between metformin use and disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and the time to recurrence (TTR), adjusting for clinical and/or pathological factors. Results. Of the 1,958 patients, 1,691 (86%) reported no history of DM, 115 reported DM with metformin use (6%), and 152 reported DM without metformin use (8%). The adjuvant treatment arms were pooled, because metformin use showed homogeneous effects on outcomes across the two arms. Among the patients with DM (n = 267), DFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59–1.35; p = .60), OS (aHR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.65–1.49; p = .95), and TTR (aHR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.56–1.35; p = .53) were not different for the metformin users compared with the nonusers after adjusting for tumor and patient factors. The survival outcomes were comparable regardless of the duration of metformin use (

Alcohol consumption is associated with a modest increased risk of colon cancer, but its relationship with colon cancer survival has not been elucidated. Using data from a phase III randomized adjuvant trial, we assessed the association of alcohol consumption with colon cancer outcomes. Patients completed a risk factor questionnaire before randomization to FOLFOX or FOLFOX + cetuximab (N = 1984). Information was collected on lifestyle factors, including smoking, physical activity and consumption of different types of alcohol. Cox models assessed the association between alcohol consumption and outcomes of disease-free survival (DFS), time-to-recurrence (TTR) and overall survival (OS), adjusting for age, sex, study arm, body mass, smoking, physical activity and performance status. No statistically significant difference in outcomes between ever and never drinkers were noted [hazard ratio (HR)DFS = 0.86, HRTTR = 0.87, HROS = 0.86, p-values = 0.11-0.17]. However, when considering alcohol type, ever consumers of red wine (n = 628) had significantly better outcomes than never consumers (HRDFS = 0.80, HRTTR = 0.81, HROS = 0.78, p-values = 0.01-0.02). Favorable outcomes were confirmed in patients who consumed 1-30 glasses/month of red wine (n = 601, HR = 0.80-0.83, p-values = 0.03-0.049); there was a suggestion of more favorable outcomes in patients who consumed >30 glasses/month of red wine (n = 27, HR = 0.33-0.38, p-values = 0.05-0.06). Beer and liquor consumption were not associated with outcomes. Although alcohol consumption was not associated with colon cancer outcomes overall, mild to moderate red wine consumption was suggestively associated with longer OS, DFS and TTR in stage III colon cancer patients.

Progression-free survival is an increasingly popular end point in oncology clinical trials. A complete blinded independent central review (BICR) is often required by regulators in an attempt to reduce the bias in progression-free survival (PFS) assessment. In this paper, we propose a new methodology that uses a sample-based BICR as an audit tool to decide whether a complete BICR is needed. More specifically, we propose a new index, the differential risk, to measure the reading discordance pattern, and develop a corresponding hypothesis testing procedure to decide whether the bias in local evaluation is acceptable. Simulation results demonstrate that our new index is sensitive to the change of discordance pattern; type I error is well controlled in the hypothesis testing procedure, and the calculated sample size provides the desired power. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Purpose: Missing data commonly occur in cancer clinical trials (CCT) and may hinder the search for alternative trial endpoints. We consider reasons for missing tumor measurement (TM) data in CCT and how missing TM data are typically handled. We explore the potential impact of missing TM data on predictive ability of a set of TM-based endpoints. Methods: Literature review identifies reasons for and approaches to handling missing TM data. Data from 3 actual clinical trials were used for illustration. A sensitivity analysis of the potential impact of missing TM data was performed by comparing overall survival (OS) predictive ability of alternative endpoints using observed and imputed data. Results: Reasons for missing TM data in CCT are presented, based on the literature review and the three trials. Although missing TM data impacted individual objective status (e.g. 12-week status changed for 53% of patients in one imputation set), it surprisingly only minimally impacted endpoint predictive ability (e.g. median c-indices of 500 imputed datasets ranged from 0.566 to 0.570 for N9741, 0.592–0.616 for N9841, and 0.542–0.624 for N0026). Conclusion: By understanding the reasons for missingness, we can better anticipate them and minimize their occurrence. Our preliminary analysis suggests missing TM data may not impact endpoint predictive ability, but could impact objective response status classification; however these findings require further validation. With response status accepted as an important phase II endpoint in the development of new cancer therapies (including immunotherapy), we urge that in CCT complete TM data collection and adherence to protocol-defined disease evaluation as closely as possible be a priority. Keywords: Missing data, Phase II, Tumor measurement-based endpoints, Cancer trials

Purpose: Patients with left-sided colon tumours have better survival and respond differently to biologics compared with patients with right-sided tumours. Left-sided colon tumours and rectal cancers are often grouped together. Herein, we examined the clinicopathological differences and outcomes between left-sided colon and rectal cancers.Patients and methods: Data from 2879 metastatic colorectal cancer patients enrolled on six first-line clinical trials during 2004–2010 were pooled. Patients were included if the primary tumour origin was clearly defined. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared in the two groups after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics, metastatic sites and the first-line regimen.Results: In total, 1374 patients with metastatic left-sided colon cancer and 1505 patients with metastatic rectal cancers were evaluated. Left-sided colon cancer patients were more likely to be female (40.1% versus 32.6%; P < 0.0001) and older (31.0% ≥ 70 years versus 25.8%; P = 0.0033) compared with rectal cancers patients. Patients with left-sided colon cancer had higher rates of liver metastases (80.9% versus 72.3%, P < 0.0001) but lower rates of lung metastases (34.2% versus 53.8%, P < 0.0001). KRAS mutations were slightly less frequent among left-sided tumours (34.8% versus 40.5%; P = 0.0103). Patients with left-sided tumours had approximately similar PFS (median 7.4 versus 6.9 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87–1.03; P = 0.1998) and OS (median 17.4 versus 16.6 months; HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.91–1.07; P = 0.7597) compared with rectal cancer patients.Conclusion: The site of tumour origin within the left side was not prognostic of outcomes. Moreover, neither bevacizumab nor cetuximab impacted, differently, the findings of the comparisons in outcomes between patients with left-sided colon tumours or rectal cancers.

Contains fulltext : 193579.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND: The estimation of risk of recurrence for patients with colon carcinoma must be improved. A robust immune score quantification is needed to introduce immune parameters into cancer classification. The aim of the study was to assess the prognostic value of total tumour-infiltrating T-cell counts and cytotoxic tumour-infiltrating T-cells counts with the consensus Immunoscore assay in patients with stage I-III colon cancer. METHODS: An international consortium of 14 centres in 13 countries, led by the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer, assessed the Immunoscore assay in patients with TNM stage I-III colon cancer. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set, an internal validation set, or an external validation set. Paraffin sections of the colon tumour and invasive margin from each patient were processed by immunohistochemistry, and the densities of CD3+ and cytotoxic CD8+ T cells in the tumour and in the invasive margin were quantified by digital pathology. An Immunoscore for each patient was derived from the mean of four density percentiles. The primary endpoint was to evaluate the prognostic value of the Immunoscore for time to recurrence, defined as time from surgery to disease recurrence. Stratified multivariable Cox models were used to assess the associations between Immunoscore and outcomes, adjusting for potential confounders. Harrell's C-statistics was used to assess model performance. FINDINGS: Tissue samples from 3539 patients were processed, and samples from 2681 patients were included in the analyses after quality controls (700 patients in the training set, 636 patients in the internal validation set, and 1345 patients in the external validation set). The Immunoscore assay showed a high level of reproducibility between observers and centres (r=0.97 for colon tumour; r=0.97 for invasive margin; p

Background:Estimating prognosis on the basis of clinicopathologic factors can inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials. We constructed prognostic nomograms for one-year overall survival and six-month progression-free survival in metastatic colorectal carcinoma by using the ARCAD database. Methods:Data from 22 674 patients in 26 randomized phase III clinical trials since 1997 were used to construct and validate Cox models, stratified by treatment arm within each study. Candidate variables included baseline age, sex, body mass index, performance status, colon vs rectal cancer, prior chemotherapy, number and location of metastatic sites, tumor mutation status (BRAF, KRAS), bilirubin, albumin, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, and derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Missing data (50% vs 50% vs

Purpose: To determine the frequency and prognostic association of molecular markers by anatomic tumor site in patients with stage III colon carcinomas. Experimental Design: In a randomized trial of adjuvant FOLFOX ± cetuximab, BRAFV600E and KRAS (exon 2) mutations and DNA mismatch repair (MMR) proteins were analyzed in tumors (N = 3,018) in relationship to tumor location, including subsite. Cox models were used to assess clinical outcome, including overall survival (OS). Results: KRAS codon 12 mutations were most frequent at the splenic flexure and cecum; codon 13 mutations were evenly distributed. BRAF mutation frequency sharply increased from transverse colon to cecum in parallel with deficient (d) MMR. Nonmutated BRAF and KRAS tumors progressively decreased from sigmoid to transverse (all P < 0.0001). Significantly, poorer OS was found for mutant KRAS in distal [HR, 1.98; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.49–2.63; P < 0.0001] versus proximal (1.25; 95% CI, 0.97–1.60; P = 0.079) cancers. BRAF status and outcome were not significantly associated with tumor site. Proximal versus distal dMMR tumors had significantly better outcome. An interaction test was significant for tumor site by KRAS (Padjusted = 0.043) and MMR (Padjusted = 0.010) for OS. Significant prognostic differences for biomarkers by tumor site were maintained in the FOLFOX arm. Tumor site was independently prognostic with a stepwise improvement from cecum to sigmoid (OS: Padjusted = 0.001). Conclusions: Mutation in BRAF or KRAS codon 12 was enriched in proximal cancers whereas nonmutated BRAF/KRAS was increased in distal tumors. Significant differences in outcome for KRAS mutations and dMMR were found by tumor site, indicating that their interpretation should occur in the context of tumor location. Clin Cancer Res; 21(23); 5294–304. ©2015 AACR.

Prognostic models have been proposed to predict survival for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). It is important to evaluate whether these models perform better than performance status (PS) alone in stage- and age-specific subgroups.The validation cohort included 2060 stage I and 1611 stage IV NSCLC patients from 23CALGB studies. For stage I, Blanchon (B), Chansky (C) and Gail (G) models were evaluated along with the PS only model. For stage IV, Blanchon (B) and Mandrekar (M) models were compared with the PS only model. The c-index was used to assess the concordance between survival and risk scores. The c-index difference (c-difference) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to determine the improvement of these models over the PS only model.For stage I, B and PS have better survival separation. The c-index for B, PS, C and G are 0.61, 0.58, 0.57 and 0.52, respectively, and B performs significantly better than PS with c-difference=0.034. For stage IV, B, M and PS have c-index 0.61, 0.64 and 0.60, respectively; B and M perform significantly better than PS with c-difference=0.015 and 0.033, respectively.Although some prognostic models have better concordance with survival than the PS only model, the absolute improvement is small. More accurate prognostic models should be developed; the inclusion of tumor genetic variants may improve prognostic models.

The treatment of colon cancer has evolved significantly since the discovery of 5-fluorouracil, and with continued innovation, it will continue to advance for the foreseeable future. In this review, we identify and discuss novel adjuvant trial designs which are currently being employed and that are forthcoming in the treatment of colon cancer. Novel approaches include investigation into whether a shorter duration of adjuvant therapy is as effective as the current standard, whether there is benefit of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in the treatment of nonmetastatic colon cancer, the role of circulating tumor cells and cell-free DNA on clinical decision making and their impact on long-term outcomes, identification, and individualized treatment of molecular subgroups of colon cancer (i.e., HER2 amplified, microsatellite instable, BRAF V600E mutated, etc.) and the efficacy of targeting cancer stem cells.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in Europe and worldwide, with the peak incidence in patients >70 years of age. However, as the treatment algorithms for the treatment of patients with CRC become ever more complex, it is clear that a significant percentage of older CRC patients (>70 years) are being less than optimally treated. This document provides a summary of an International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) task force meeting convened in Paris in 2013 to update the existing expert recommendations for the treatment of older (geriatric) CRC patients published in 2009 and includes overviews of the recent data on epidemiology, geriatric assessment as it relates to surgery and oncology, and the ability of older CRC patients to tolerate surgery, adjuvant chemotherapy, treatment of their metastatic disease including palliative chemotherapy with and without the use of the biologics, and finally the use of adjuvant and palliative radiotherapy in the treatment of older rectal cancer patients. An overview of each area was presented by one of the task force experts and comments invited from other task force members.

Purpose Progression-free survival (PFS) has previously been established as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) for first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Because mCRC treatment has advanced in the last decade with extended OS, this surrogacy requires re-examination. Methods Individual patient data from 16,762 patients were available from 22 first-line mCRC studies conducted from 1997 to 2006; 12 of those studies tested antiangiogenic and/or anti–epidermal growth factor receptor agents. The relationship between PFS (first event of progression or death) and OS was evaluated by using R2 statistics (the closer the value is to 1, the stronger the correlation) from weighted least squares regression of trial-specific hazard ratios estimated by using Cox and Copula models. Results Forty-four percent of patients received a regimen that included biologic agents. Median first-line PFS was 8.3 months, and median OS was 18.2 months. The correlation between PFS and OS was modest (R2, 0.45 to 0.69). Analyses limited to trials that tested treatments with biologic agents, nonstrategy trials, or superiority trials did not improve surrogacy. Conclusion In modern mCRC trials, in which survival after the first progression exceeds time to first progression, a positive but modest correlation was observed between OS and PFS at both the patient and trial levels. This finding demonstrates the substantial variability in OS introduced by the number of lines of therapy and types of effective subsequent treatments and the associated challenge to the use of OS as an end point to assess the benefit attributable to a single line of therapy. PFS remains an appropriate primary end point for first-line mCRC trials to detect the direct treatment effect of new agents.

Purpose The optimal end point for randomized phase II trials of anticancer therapies remains controversial. We simulated phase II trials by resampling patients from N9741, a randomized phase III trial of chemotherapy regimens for metastatic colorectal cancer, and compared the power of various end points to detect the superior therapy (FOLFOX [infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin] had longer overall survival than both IROX [irinotecan plus oxaliplatin] and IFL [irinotecan and bolus fluorouracil plus leucovorin]). Methods Tumor measurements and progression-free survival (PFS) data were obtained for 1,471 patients; 1,002 had consistently measured tumors and were resampled (5,000 replicates) to simulate two-arm, randomized phase II trials with α = 0.10 (one sided) and 20 to 80 patients per arm. End points included log ratio of tumor size at 6, 12, and 18 weeks relative to baseline; time to tumor growth (TTG), estimated using a nonlinear mixed-effects model; and PFS. Arms were compared using rank sum tests for log ratio and TTG and a log-rank test for PFS. Results For FOLFOX versus IFL, TTG and PFS had similar power, with both exceeding the power of log ratio at 18 weeks; for FOLFOX versus IROX, TTG and log ratio at 18 weeks had similar power, with both exceeding the power of PFS. The best end points exhibited > 80% power with 60 to 80 patients per arm. Conclusion TTG is a powerful end point for randomized phase II trials of cytotoxic therapies in metastatic colorectal cancer; it was either comparable or superior to PFS and log ratio at 18 weeks. Additional studies will be needed to clarify the potential of TTG as a phase II end point.

Altres ajuts: This work was partially supported by grant UM1 CA167551 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and through cooperative agreements with members of the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) and Principal Investigators. Centers contributing to this analysis include the Seattle Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (U01/U24CA074794), Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (U01 CA074778 and U01/U24 CA097735), Mayo Clinic Cooperative Family Registry for Colon Cancer Studies (U01/U24 CA074800), and Ontario Familial Colorectal Cancer Registry (U01/U24 CA074783). This work was also supported by NCI/NIH grant K07CA172298 and K05CA152715 (to AIP). The content of this article does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the NIH or any of the collaborating centers in the CCFR, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government. This study was partly supported by the "Norwegian Cancer Society" and the "Research Council of Norway" (no grants apply). TNM staging alone does not accurately predict outcome in colon cancer (CC) patients who may be eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy. It is unknown to what extent the molecular markers microsatellite instability (MSI) and mutations in BRAF or KRAS improve prognostic estimation in multivariable models that include detailed clinicopathological annotation. After imputation of missing at random data, a subset of patients accrued in phase 3 trials with adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 3016)-N0147 (NCT00079274) and PETACC3 (NCT00026273)-was aggregated to construct multivariable Cox models for 5-year overall survival that were subsequently validated internally in the remaining clinical trial samples (n = 1499), and also externally in different population cohorts of chemotherapy-treated (n = 949) or -untreated (n = 1080) CC patients, and an additional series without treatment annotation (n = 782). TNM staging, MSI and BRAF V600E mutation status remained independent prognostic factors in multivariable models across clinical trials cohorts and observational studies. Concordance indices increased from 0.61-0.68 in the TNM alone model to 0.63-0.71 in models with added molecular markers, 0.65-0.73 with clinicopathological features and 0.66-0.74 with all covariates. In validation cohorts with complete annotation, the integrated time-dependent AUC rose from 0.64 for the TNM alone model to 0.67 for models that included clinicopathological features, with or without molecular markers. In patient cohorts that received adjuvant chemotherapy, the relative proportion of variance explained (R 2) by TNM, clinicopathological features and molecular markers was on an average 65%, 25% and 10%, respectively. Incorporation of MSI, BRAF V600E and KRAS mutation status to overall survival models with TNM staging improves the ability to precisely prognosticate in stage II and III CC patients, but only modestly increases prediction accuracy in multivariable models that include clinicopathological features, particularly in chemotherapy-treated patients.

Importance Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) currently apply the same statistical threshold of alpha = 2.5% for controlling for false-positive results or type 1 error, regardless of the burden of disease or patient preferences. Is there an objective and systematic framework for designing RCTs that incorporates these considerations on a case-by-case basis? Objective To apply Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) to cancer therapeutics to choose an alpha and sample size that minimize the potential harm to current and future patients under both null and alternative hypotheses. Data Sources We used the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and data from the 10 clinical trials of the Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology. Study Selection The NCI SEER database was used because it is the most comprehensive cancer database in the United States. The Alliance trial data was used owing to the quality and breadth of data, and because of the expertise in these trials of one of us (D.J.S.). Data Extraction and Synthesis The NCI SEER and Alliance data have already been thoroughly vetted. Computations were replicated independently by 2 coauthors and reviewed by all coauthors. Main Outcomes and Measures Our prior hypothesis was that an alpha of 2.5% would not minimize the overall expected harm to current and future patients for the most deadly cancers, and that a less conservative alpha may be necessary. Our primary study outcomes involve measuring the potential harm to patients under both null and alternative hypotheses using NCI and Alliance data, and then computing BDA-optimal type 1 error rates and sample sizes for oncology RCTs. Results We computed BDA-optimal parameters for the 23 most common cancer sites using NCI data, and for the 10 Alliance clinical trials. For RCTs involving therapies for cancers with short survival times, no existing treatments, and low prevalence, the BDA-optimal type 1 error rates were much higher than the traditional 2.5%. For cancers with longer survival times, existing treatments, and high prevalence, the corresponding BDA-optimal error rates were much lower, in some cases even lower than 2.5%. Conclusions and Relevance Bayesian decision analysis is a systematic, objective, transparent, and repeatable process for deciding the outcomes of RCTs that explicitly incorporates burden of disease and patient preferences.

Purpose Follicular lymphoma (FL) is an indolent cancer, with effective but rarely curative treatment options. As a standard study end point for first-line FL therapy, progression-free survival (PFS) requires extended follow-up (median PFS, > 7 years). To provide patients with earlier access to newer therapies, an earlier end point to expedite clinical trials is needed. Our objective was to formally assess the complete response rate at 30 months (CR30) after initiation of induction therapy as a potential surrogate end point for PFS in first-line FL therapy. Patients and Methods We analyzed individual patient data from 13 randomized multicenter trials of induction and maintenance regimens in first-line FL therapy published after 1990 and with sufficient data to evaluate whether CR30 could predict treatment effects on PFS. Correlation of the CR30 odds ratio with the PFS hazard ratio was evaluated by both linear regression (R2WLS) and bivariate copula (R2Copula) models. Prespecified criteria for surrogacy required either R2WLS or R2Copula ≥ 0.80, with a lower-bound 95% CI > 0.60. Results Data from eight induction and five maintenance randomized trials in 3,837 evaluable patients were analyzed. The prespecified surrogacy threshold was met, with an R2WLS of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.96) and an R2Copula of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.00). Multiple sensitivity and supplemental analyses supported the robustness of the findings. A minimum 11% absolute improvement in CR30 from a 50% control rate predicted a significant treatment effect on PFS (hazard ratio, 0.69). Conclusion This large, prospective, pooled analysis of randomized chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and chemoimmunotherapy trials demonstrates that CR30 is a surrogate end point for PFS in first-line FL treatment trials. Use of this end point may expedite therapeutic development with the intent of bringing novel therapies to this patient population years before PFS results are mature.

Objectives: To develop evidence-based guideline recommendations through a systematic review of the literature to establish standard molecular biomarker testing of colorectal cancer (CRC) tissues to guide epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapies and conventional chemotherapy regimens. Methods: The American Society for Clinical Pathology, College of American Pathologists, Association for Molecular Pathology, and American Society of Clinical Oncology convened an expert panel to develop an evidence-based guideline to establish standard molecular biomarker testing and guide therapies for patients with CRC. A comprehensive literature search that included more than 4,000 articles was conducted. Results: Twenty-one guideline statements were established. Conclusions: Evidence supports mutational testing for EGFR signaling pathway genes, since they provide clinically actionable information as negative predictors of benefit to anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody therapies for targeted therapy of CRC. Mutations in several of the biomarkers have clear prognostic value. Laboratory approaches to operationalize CRC molecular testing are presented.

Purpose: Recurrence risk assessment to make treatment decisions for early-stage colon cancer patients is a major unmet medical need. The aim of this retrospective multicenter study was to evaluate the clinical utility of guanylyl cyclase C (GCC) mRNA levels in lymph nodes on colon cancer recurrence. Methods: The proportion of lymph nodes with GCC-positive mRNA (LNR) was evaluated in 463 untreated T3N0 patients, blinded to clinical outcomes. One site's (n = 97) tissue grossing method precluded appropriate lymph node assessment resulting in post hoc exclusion. Cox regression models tested the relationship between GCC and the primary endpoint of time to recurrence. Assay methods, primary analyses, and cut points were all prespecified. Results: Final dataset contained 366 patients, 38 (10%) of whom had recurrence. Presence of four or more GCC-positive lymph nodes was significantly associated with risk of recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07–5.69, P = 0.035], whereas binary GCC LNR risk class (HR = 1.87, 95% CI, 0.99–3.54, P = 0.054) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR = 0.77, 95% CI, 0.36–1.62, P = 0.49) were not. In a secondary analysis using a 3-level GCC LNR risk group classification of high (LNR > 0.20), intermediate (0.10 < LNR ≤ 0.20), and low (LNR ≤ 0.10), high-risk patients had a 2.5 times higher recurrence risk compared with low-risk patients (HR = 2.53, 95% CI, 1.24–5.17, P = 0.011). Conclusions: GCC status is a promising prognostic factor independent of traditional histopathology risk factors in a contemporary population of patients with stage IIa colon cancer not treated with adjuvant therapy, but GCC determination must be performed with methodology adapted to the tissue procurement and fixation technique. Clin Cancer Res; 20(16); 4361–9. ©2014 AACR.

Purpose Progressive disease (PD) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) 1.1 is defined as growth of measurable target lesions, presence of new lesions or unequivocal progression of non-target disease. In this manuscript we explored whether a more refined categorisation of tumour response and/or these components of progression, varying over time, can improve prediction of overall survival (OS) in the RECIST database. Methods Data were randomly selected from 13 randomised clinical trials (3758 patients with breast, lung or colorectal cancer). A maximum of five target lesions contributed to the sum of longest diameters. At each measurement time we determined: best target response as best % improvement from baseline; tumour growth of target lesions as worst % change and worst rate of increase (mm/week) from nadir; presence of new lesions and occurrence of non-target PD. OS was analysed by tumour type using Cox regression, adjusting for baseline sum and including these parameters as time-dependent covariates. Results 36% of patients had new lesions, 28% non-target PD and 49% experienced target lesion growth (median strongest growth 1.5 mm/week). Regardless of tumour type, presence of new lesions (hazard ratio (HR) ranging 1.5–2.3) and non-target PD (HR 1.5–2.0) were strongly associated with worse OS. The explanatory value of tumour growth for OS was low compared to the other components. Conclusion Modelling target lesion tumour growth did not show a marked improvement in OS prediction over and above the other components. These analyses enable a better understanding of the role of each component in PD evaluation. Work is ongoing to incorporate this information into an updated version of RECIST with enhanced prediction of subsequent survival.

Background: Recently, a prospective study reported improved clinical outcomes for recurrent ovarian cancer patients treated with chemotherapies indicated to be sensitive by a chemoresponse assay, compared with those patients treated with non-sensitive therapies, thereby demonstrating the assay's prognostic properties. Due to cross-drug response over different treatments and possible association of in vitro chemosensitivity of a tumour with its inherent biology, further analysis is required to ascertain whether the assay performs as a predictive marker as well. Methods: Women with persistent or recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer (n=262) were empirically treated with one of 15 therapies, blinded to assay results. Each patient's tumour was assayed for responsiveness to the 15 therapies. The assay's ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed by comparing the association when the assayed therapy matches the administered therapy (match) with the association when the assayed therapy is randomly selected, not necessarily matching the administered therapy (mismatch). Results: Patients treated with assay-sensitive therapies had improved PFS vs patients treated with non-sensitive therapies, with the assay result for match significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio (HR)=0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.50–0.91, P=0.009). On the basis of 3000 simulations, the mean HR for mismatch was 0.81 (95% range=0.66–0.99), with 3.4% of HRs less than 0.67, indicating that HR for match is lower than for mismatch. While 47% of tumours were non-sensitive to all assayed therapies and 9% were sensitive to all, 44% displayed heterogeneity in assay results. Improved outcome was associated with the administration of an assay-sensitive therapy, regardless of homogeneous or heterogeneous assay responses across all of the assayed therapies. Conclusions: These analyses provide supportive evidence that this chemoresponse assay is a predictive marker, demonstrating its ability to discern specific therapies that are likely to be more effective among multiple alternatives.

Purpose: We examined the prognostic impact of specific KRAS mutations in patients with stage III colon adenocarcinoma receiving adjuvant FOLFOX alone or combined with cetuximab in a phase III trial (N0147). Analysis was restricted to BRAF–wild-type tumors, because BRAF mutation was associated with poor prognosis, and BRAF and KRAS mutations are mutually exclusive. Experimental Design: The seven most common KRAS mutations in codon 12 and codon 13 were examined in 2,478 BRAF–wild-type tumors. Because KRAS mutations in codon 12 (n = 779) or 13 (n = 220) were not predictive of adjuvant cetuximab benefit, study arms were pooled for analysis. Disease-free survival (DFS) was evaluated by HRs using Cox models. Results: KRAS mutations in codon 12 (multivariate HR, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.28–1.80; P < 0.0001) or codon 13 (multivariate HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.04–1.77; P = 0.0248) were significantly associated with shorter DFS compared with patients with wild-type KRAS/BRAF tumors, independent of covariates. KRAS codon 12 mutations were independently associated with proficient mismatch repair (P < 0.0001), proximal tumor site (P < 0.0001), low grade, age, and sex, whereas codon 13 mutations were associated with proximal site (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: KRAS mutations in either codon 12 or 13 are associated with inferior survival in patients with resected stage III colon cancer. These data highlight the importance of accurate molecular characterization and the significant role of KRAS mutations in both codons in the progression of this malignancy in the adjuvant setting. Clin Cancer Res; 20(11); 3033–43. ©2014 AACR.

Purpose: With the increasing use of novel targeted agents and the development of high imaging techniques, response evaluation criteria in solid tumour (RECIST) 1.1 developed primarily for cytotoxic agents and anatomic imaging, has demonstrated limitations. A survey was conducted of RECIST users to identify concerns and their suggestions for future RECIST criteria.Methods: 140 key partners of the RECIST collaboration were asked to complete a questionnaire. The 49 questions concerned (a) satisfaction and concerns with RECIST 1.1; (b) use of modified RECIST criteria and (c) suggestions for the next RECIST Version.Results: Sixty-five replies were received. 52.3% responders were satisfied with RECIST 1.1, while 10.8% indicated dissatisfaction. Areas of potential weakness included: (a) lack of incorporation of potential early indicators of response such as functional imaging, (b) lack of validation in rarer tumour types and (c) lack of validation for novel (targeted) agents. Suggestions were multiple, with highest numbers on two points: developing sub-criteria for certain disease types and including advanced imaging techniques for the evaluation.Conclusions: Constructive suggestions were received for optimising the next version. Ongoing data collection will make it possible to investigate the possible utilisation of fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging in tumour assessment, to verify whether RECIST is/can still be applicable in novel targeted therapy and to consider the need for criteria for specific disease types. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

O1 Combinatorial CD8+ and PD-L1+ cell densities correlate with response and improved survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with durvalumab #### Sonja Althammer1, Keith Steele2, Marlon Rebelatto2, Tze Heng Tan1, Tobias Wiestler1, Guenter Schmidt1, Brandon Higgs2, Xia

3583 Background: The Microsatellite instability (MSI) or deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) phenotype is usually taken as a single biological entity whereas no data are available concerning prognosis and response to chemotherapy between sporadic and familial dMMR cases. Methods: Resected KRAS exon 2 wild-type (WT) tumor stage III colon cancers (N = 4596) from patients (pts) randomly assigned to FOLFOX +/- cetuximab in two adjuvant large phase III trials were prospectively analyzed for MSI status and dMMR mechanism (sporadic vs familial). Stratified Cox models were used to assess prognostic and predictive values of dMMR mechanism by treatment arms, adjusting for age, gender, tumor grade, ECOG PS, pT/pN stage and primary tumor location. Results: Among dMMR patients with complete data for dMMR mechanism analysis (N = 354), there were 255 (72%) sporadic ( BRAF mutated or WT with MLH1 methylation) and 99 (28%) familial (loss of MSH2 or MSH6, or loss MLH1 with BRAF WT and unmethylated MLH1) cases. A large proportion of dMMR sporadic cases were mutated for BRAF (n = 200; 80%). In pts treated with FOLFOX, the disease-free survival (DFS) was not statistically different by dMMR mechanism, while for pts treated with FOLFOX + cetuximab, the sporadic cases did worse than familial cases (DFS; adjusted (adj) HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.02-7.08; P= 0.04). Considering the predictive value, a deleterious effect of adding cetuximab to FOLFOX was observed in sporadic (DFS; adjHR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.01-2.79; P= 0.04) but not in familial dMMR pts (interaction P value regarding treatment effect = 0.03). Furthermore, a non-significant trend to a deleterious effect of adding cetuximab to FOLFOX was observed in BRAF mutant (DFS; adjHR, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.95-2.92; P= 0.07) but not in BRAF WT pts. Conclusions: The addition of cetuximab to FOLFOX was associated with reduced DFS in patients with sporadic dMMR cases. Further studies including the methylator phenotype (CIMP) analysis are needed to validate these results. Clinical trial information: NCT00265811 and NCT00079274.

In cancer clinical trials, patients often experience a recurrence of disease prior to the outcome of interest, overall survival. Additionally, for many cancers, there is a cured fraction of the population who will never experience a recurrence. There is often interest in how different covariates affect the probability of being cured of disease and the time to recurrence, time to death, and time to death after recurrence. We propose a multi-state Markov model with an incorporated cured fraction to jointly model recurrence and death in colon cancer. A Bayesian estimation strategy is used to obtain parameter estimates. The model can be used to assess how individual covariates affect the probability of being cured and each of the transition rates. Checks for the adequacy of the model fit and for the functional forms of covariates are explored. The methods are applied to data from 12 randomized trials in colon cancer, where we show common effects of specific covariates across the trials.

Purpose The association of deficient DNA mismatch repair (dMMR) with prognosis in patients with colon cancer treated with adjuvant fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) chemotherapy remains unknown. Patients and Methods Resected, stage III colon carcinomas from patients (N = 2,686) randomly assigned to FOLFOX ± cetuximab (North Central Cancer Treatment Group N0147 trial) were analyzed for mismatch repair (MMR) protein expression and mutations in BRAFV600E (exon 15) and KRAS (codons 12 and 13). Association of biomarkers with disease-free survival (DFS) was determined using Cox models. A validation cohort (Cancer and Leukemia Group B 88903 trial) was used. Results dMMR was detected in 314 (12%) of 2,580 tumors, of which 49.3% and 10.6% had BRAFV600E or KRAS mutations, respectively. MMR status was not prognostic overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.64 to 1.07; P = .14), yet significant interactions were found between MMR and primary tumor site (Pinteraction = .009) and lymph node category (N1 v N2; Pinteraction = .014). Favorable DFS was observed for dMMR versus proficient MMR proximal tumors (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.94; P = .018) but not dMMR distal tumors (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.95; P = .056), adjusting for mutations and covariates. Any survival benefit of dMMR was lost in N2 tumors. Mutations in BRAFV600E (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.70; P = .009) or KRAS (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.21 to 1.70; P < .001) were independently associated with worse DFS. The observed MMR by tumor site interaction was validated in an independent cohort of stage III colon cancers (Pinteraction = .037). Conclusion The prognostic impact of MMR depended on tumor site, and this interaction was validated in an independent cohort. Among dMMR cancers, proximal tumors had favorable outcome, whereas distal or N2 tumors had poor outcome. BRAF or KRAS mutations were independently associated with adverse outcome.

Purpose: To compare long-term outcomes between men and women in a large cohort of clinical trial participants with early-stage colon cancer, specifically by examining whether the prognostic effect of sex varies based on age, stage of disease, and type of adjuvant therapy received. Methods: A pooled analysis of individual patient data from 33,345 patients with colon cancer enrolled in 24 phase III studies of various adjuvant systemic therapies was conducted. Chemotherapy consisted of (1) fluorouracil (5-FU), (2) 5-FU variations, (3) 5-FU plus oxaliplatin, (4) 5-FU plus irinotecan, or (5) oral fluoropyrimidine-based regimens. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival; secondary endpoints included overall survival and time to recurrence. Stratified Cox models were used to assess the effect of sex on outcomes. Multivariate models were used to assess adjusted effects and to explore the interaction among sex and other factors. Results: A total of 18,244 (55%) men and 15,101 (45%) women were included. In the entire cohort, the median age was 61 years; 91% (24,868) were white; 31% (10,347) and 69% (22,964) had stage I/II and III disease, respectively. Overall, men had inferior prognoses when compared with women for time to recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05 [95% CI, 1.01-1.09]) and other endpoints after adjusting for age, stage, and treatment. Sex was not a predictive factor of treatment efficacy (P for interaction between sex and treatment when adjusting for age and stage were .40, .67, and .77 for disease-free survival, overall survival, and time to recurrence, respectively). In exploratory analyses, worse outcomes in men were more prominent in the older patients when adjusting for stage and treatment (HR 1.08 in age ≤ 65 years vs. HR 1.18 in age > 65 years; interaction P = .016 for disease-free survival). The stage of disease and type of adjuvant regimen did not modify the prognostic value of sex. Conclusions: Sex is a modest independent prognostic marker for patients with early-stage colon cancer, particularly in older patients. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Purpose Prior studies have suggested that patients with stage II/III colon cancer receive similar benefit from intravenous (IV) fluoropyrimidine adjuvant therapy regardless of age. Combination regimens and oral fluorouracil (FU) therapy are now standard. We examined the impact of age on colon cancer recurrence and mortality after adjuvant therapy with these newer options. Patients and Methods We analyzed 11,953 patients age < 70 and 2,575 age ≥ 70 years from seven adjuvant therapy trials comparing IV FU with oral fluoropyrimidines (capecitabine, uracil, or tegafur) or combinations of fluoropyrimidines with oxaliplatin or irinotecan in stage II/III colon cancer. End points were disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and time to recurrence (TTR). Results In three studies comparing oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy with IV FU, statistically significant interactions were not observed between treatment arm and age (P interaction = .09 for DFS, .05 for OS, and .36 for TTR), although the stratified point estimates suggested limited benefit from the addition of oxaliplatin in elderly patients (DFS hazard ratio [HR], 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.13; OS HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.27). No significant interactions by age were detected with oral fluoropyrimidine therapy compared with IV FU; noninferiority was supported in both age populations. Conclusion Patients age ≥ 70 years seemed to experience reduced benefit from adding oxaliplatin to fluoropyrimidines in the adjuvant setting, although statistically, there was not a significant effect modification by age, whereas oral fluoropyrimidines retained their efficacy.

Purpose By using data from North Central Cancer Treatment Group Phase III Trial N0147, a randomized adjuvant trial of patients with stage III colon cancer, we assessed the relationship between smoking and cancer outcomes, disease-free survival (DFS), and time to recurrence (TTR), accounting for heterogeneity by patient and tumor characteristics. Patients and Methods Before random assignment to infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) or FOLFOX plus cetuximab, 1,968 participants completed a questionnaire on smoking history and other risk factors. Cox models assessed the association between smoking history and the primary trial outcome of DFS (ie, time to recurrence or death), as well as TTR, adjusting for other clinical and patient factors. The median follow-up was 3.5 years among patients who did not experience events. Results Compared with never-smokers, ever smokers experienced significantly shorter DFS (3-year DFS proportion: 70% v 74%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.42). This association persisted after multivariate adjustment (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.49). There was significant interaction in this association by BRAF mutation status (P = .03): smoking was associated with shorter DFS in patients with BRAF wild-type (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.66) but not BRAF mutated (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.29) colon cancer. Smoking was more strongly associated with poorer DFS in those with KRAS mutated versus KRAS wild-type colon cancer (HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.12 to 2.00] v HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 0.85 to 1.39]), although interaction by KRAS mutation status was not statistically significant (P = .07). Associations were comparable in analyses of TTR. Conclusion Overall, smoking was significantly associated with shorter DFS and TTR in patients with colon cancer. These adverse relationships were most evident in patients with BRAF wild-type or KRAS mutated colon cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is an established risk factor for developing colon cancer, its prognostic impact and relation to patient sex in colon cancer survivors remains unclear. METHODS: The authors examined the prognostic and predictive impact of the body mass index (BMI) in patients with stage II and III colon carcinoma (N = 25,291) within the Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints (ACCENT) database. BMI was measured at enrollment in randomized trials of 5-fluorouracil–based adjuvant chemotherapy. Association of BMI with the time to recurrence (TTR), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) were determined using Cox regression models. Statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.8 years, obese and underweight patients had significantly poorer survival compared with overweight and normal-weight patients. In a multivariable analysis, the adverse prognostic impact of BMI was observed among men but not among women (Pinteraction = .0129). Men with class 2 and 3 obesity (BMI ≥35.0 kg/m2) had a statistically significant reduction in DFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.33; P = .0297) compared with normal-weight patients. Underweight patients had a significantly shorter TTR and reduced DFS (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.09-1.28; P < .0001) that was more significant among men (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.15-1.50; P < .0001) than among women (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.23; P = .0362; Pinteraction = .0340). BMI was not predictive of a benefit from adjuvant treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and underweight status were associated independently with inferior outcomes in patients with colon cancer who received treatment in adjuvant chemotherapy trials. Cancer 2013. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

The Adjuvant Colon Cancer End Points (ACCENT) Collaborative Group was formed 15 years ago to address scientific questions in early stage colon cancer that could best be answered by pooling individual patient data across many randomized clinical trials. Today, the ACCENT database contains detailed information collected from over 40,000 patients enrolled onto 27 major adjuvant colon cancer trials conducted between 1977 and 2009. Since its inception, the ACCENT group has led many sophisticated analyses addressing a variety of clinical questions, such as the long-term survivorship of colon cancer patients by treatment, the time course of oxaliplatin benefit, and support for the use of disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS), among many others. Here, we provide an updated overview of recent important results and future directions of the ACCENT collaboration.

Although the lack of CDX2 expression has recently been proposed as a potential biomarker for a high risk of relapse in patients with stage II and III colon cancer after complete surgical resection, its prognostic role in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear and warrants investigation.We identified 145 patients treated at our institution from 2006 to 2016, including 66 patients with CDX2-negative metastatic CRC and a comparison cohort of 79 patients with CDX2-positive metastatic CRC. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for first-line systemic therapy were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The associations of CDX2 expression with survival were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models.The prevalence of absent CDX2 expression in our cohort was 5.6%. Patients with CDX2-negative metastatic CRC were significantly more likely to be female, and to have right-sided primary tumors, poorly differentiated histologic features, and distant lymph node metastasis. The median OS for patients with CDX2-negative and -positive metastatic CRC was 8 and 39 months, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 4.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.49-6.54; P .0001). After adjusting for covariates in a multivariate model, the association of a lack of CDX2 expression and OS remained statistically significant (HR, 4.52; 95% CI, 2.50-8.17; P .0001). In addition, the median PFS (3 vs. 10 months; HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.52-3.27; P .0001) for first-line chemotherapy was significantly decreased in patients with CDX2-negative metastatic CRC.The results of the present study show that a lack of CDX2 expression in metastatic CRC is an adverse prognostic feature and a potential negative predictor of the response to chemotherapy.

Background: The prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations within microsatellite-unstable (MSI) and microsatellite-stable (MSS) subgroups of resected colon carcinoma patients remains controversial. We examined this question in prospectively collected biospecimens from stage III colon cancer with separate analysis of MSI and MSS tumors from patients receiving adjuvant FOLFOX +/− cetuximab in two adjuvant therapy trials. Methods: Three groups were defined: BRAF Mutant, KRAS Mutant, and double wild-type. The analytic strategy involved estimation of study-specific effects, assessment of homogeneity of results, and then analysis of pooled data as no differences in patient outcome were found between treatment arms in both trials. Associations of mutations with patient outcome were analyzed, and multivariable models were adjusted for treatment and relevant factors. Results: Four thousand four hundred eleven tumors were evaluable for BRAF and KRAS mutations and mismatch repair status; 3934 were MSS and 477 were MSI. In MSS patients, all BRAF V600E mutations (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.92, P < .001), KRAS codon 12 alterations, and p.G13D mutations (HR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.40 to 1.83, P < .001) were associated with shorter time to recurrence (TTR) and shorter survival after relapse (SAR; HR = 3.02 , 95% CI = 2.32 to 3.93, P < .001, and HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.44, P = .04, respectively). Overall survival (OS) in MSS patients was poorer for BRAF-mutant patients (HR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.56 to 2.57, P < .001) and KRAS-mutant patients (HR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.38 to 1.91, P < .001) vs wild-type. No prognostic role of KRAS or BRAF mutations was seen in MSI patients. Furthermore, no interaction was found between treatment arm (with or without cetuximab) and KRAS and BRAF mutations for TTR or OS in MSS patients. Conclusions: In a pooled analysis of resected stage III colon cancer patients receiving adjuvant FOLFOX, BRAF or KRAS mutations are independently associated with shorter TTR, SAR, and OS in patients with MSS, but not MSI, tumors. Future clinical trials in the adjuvant setting should consider these mutations as important stratification factors.

Severe (grade≥3) adverse events (AEs) to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy regimens can result in treatment delays or cessation, and, in extreme cases, life-threatening complications. Current genetic biomarkers for 5-FU toxicity prediction, however, account for only a small proportion of toxic cases. In the current study, we assessed DPYD variants suggested to correlate with 5-FU toxicity, a deep intronic variant (c.1129-5923 C>G), and four variants within a haplotype (hapB3) in 1953 stage III colon cancer patients who received adjuvant FOLFOX±cetuximab. Logistic regression was used to assess multivariable associations between DPYD variant status and AEs common to 5-FU (5FU-AEs). In our study cohort, 1228 patients (62.9%) reported any grade≥3 AE (overall AE), with 638 patients (32.7%) reporting any grade≥3 5FU-AE. Only 32 of 78 (41.0%) patients carrying DPYD c.1129-5923 C>G and the completely linked hapB3 variants c.1236 C>G and c.959-51 T>C showed at least one grade≥3 5FU-AE, resulting in no statistically significant association (adjusted odds ratio=1.47, 95% confidence interval=0.90-2.43, P=0.1267). No significant associations were identified between c.1129-5923 C>G/hapB3 and overall grade≥3 AE rate. Our results suggest that c.1129-5923 C>G/hapB3 have limited predictive value for severe toxicity to 5-FU-based combination chemotherapy.

Purpose Factors associated with early mortality after surgery and treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer are poorly understood. We aimed to characterize the determinants of early mortality in a large cohort of colon cancer trial participants. Methods A pooled analysis of 37,568 patients in 25 randomized trials of adjuvant systemic therapy was conducted. Multivariable logistic regression models with several definitions of early mortality (30, 60, and 90 days, and 6 months) were constructed, adjusting for clinically and statistically significant variables. A nomogram for 6-month mortality was developed and validated. Results Median age among patients was 61 years, patient demographics included 54% men and 90% White, 29% and 71% had stage II and III disease, respectively, and 79%, 20%, and 1% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS) of 0, 1, and ≥ 2, respectively. Early mortality was low: 0.3% at 30 days, 0.6% at 60 days, 0.8% at 90 days, and 1.4% at 6 months. Of those patients who died by 6 months post–random assignment, 40% had documented disease recurrence prior to death. Early disease recurrence was associated with a markedly increased risk of death during the first 6 months post-treatment (hazard ratio, 82.6; 95%CI, 66.9 to 102.1). In prognostic analyses, advanced age, male sex, poorer PS, increasing ratio of positive to examined lymph nodes, earlier decade of enrollment, and higher tumor stage and grade predicted a greater likelihood of early mortality, whereas treatment received was not strongly predictive. A multivariable model for 6-month mortality showed strong optimism-adjusted discrimination (concordance index, 0.73) and calibration. Conclusion Early mortality was infrequent but more prevalent in patients with advanced age and a PS of ≥ 2, underscoring the need to carefully consider the risk-to-benefit ratio when making treatment decisions in these subgroups.

Purpose In recent retrospective analyses of early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC), low and high body mass index (BMI) scores were associated with worsened outcomes. Whether BMI is a prognostic or predictive factor in metastatic CRC (mCRC) is unclear. Patients and Methods Individual data from 21,149 patients enrolled onto 25 first-line mCRC trials during 1997 to 2012 were pooled. We assessed both prognostic and predictive effects of BMI on overall survival and progression-free survival, and we accounted for patient and tumor characteristics and therapy type (targeted v nontargeted). Results BMI was prognostic for overall survival (P < .001) and progression-free survival (P < .001), with an L-shaped pattern. That is, risk of progression and/or death was greatest for low BMI; risk decreased as BMI increased to approximately 28 kg/m2, and then it plateaued. Relative to obese patients, patients with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m2 had a 27% increased risk of having a PFS event (95% CI, 20% to 34%) and a 50% increased risk of death (95% CI, 43% to 56%). Low BMI was associated with poorer survival for men than women (interaction P < .001). BMI was not predictive of treatment effect. Conclusion Low BMI is associated with an increased risk of progression and death among the patients enrolled on the mCRC trials, with no increased risk for elevated BMI, in contrast to the adjuvant setting. Possible explanations include negative effects related to cancer cachexia in patients with low BMI, increased drug delivery or selection bias in patients with high BMI, and potential for an interaction between BMI and molecular signaling pathways.

Purpose Limited data exist regarding the outcomes of adjuvant therapy in younger patients with stage II and III colon cancer. We examined disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), recurrence-free interval (RFI), and grade 3+ adverse events (AEs) in younger patients in the 33,574 patient Adjuvant Colon Cancer Endpoints Group data set. Patients and Methods Individual patient data from 24 randomized phase III clinical trials were obtained for survival outcomes, which included 10 clinical trials for AE outcomes. Two age-based cutoff points were used to define younger patients: age younger than 40 years and younger than 50 years. Adjuvant therapy benefit analyses were limited to the nine clinical trials in which the investigational chemotherapeutic arm demonstrated benefit. Results One thousand seven hundred fifty-eight patients (5.2%) were younger than 40 years, 5,817 patients (17.3%) were younger than 50 years, and only 299 patients (0.9%) were younger than 30 years. No meaningful differences in sex or stage were noted in younger versus older patients. Younger and older patients did not differ in RFI (age, < 40 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.0; P = .62 and age < 50 years: HR, 1.02; P = .35). Younger patients (both cutoff points), had longer OS and DFS than older patients. In trials demonstrating adjuvant therapy benefit, similar DFS benefit was observed by age. Younger patients experienced less leukopenia and stomatitis, but more frequent nausea/vomiting. Conclusion Among patients on clinical trials, younger and older patients with stage II and III colon cancer had similar RFI and adjuvant therapy benefit. Younger patients have longer OS and DFS, which is likely primarily because of fewer competing causes of death. Adjuvant therapy is beneficial for colon cancer in patients younger than 50 years who meet typical clinical trial eligibility criteria.

Purpose: Assessing impact of poor accrual on premature trial closure requires a relevant metric. We propose defining accrual sufficiency on apparent ability to address primary endpoints (PE) rather than attaining accrual targets. Experimental Design: All phase III trials open January 1, 1993, to December 31, 2002, by five U.S. oncology Clinical Trials Cooperative Groups (CTCG) were evaluated for accrual sufficiency and scientific results. Sufficient accrual included meeting accrual target, CTCGs documentation attesting adequate accrual, or conclusive results at interim analysis; insufficient accrual included poor accrual as cited closure reason or other reasons rendering a trial unable to address its primary endpoints. Closure rates based on our accrual sufficiency definition are compared with rates of meeting accrual targets and addressing the primary endpoints. A percentage of target accrual above which trials commonly answer the intended scientific question was identified to serve as an alternative to meeting full target accrual in designating accrual success. Results: Of 238 eligible trials, 158 (66%) closed with sufficient accrual. Among 80 trials with insufficient accrual, 70 (29%) closed specifically because of poor accrual. Inadequate accrual rates are overemphasized when defining accrual success solely by meeting accrual targets. Nearly 75% of trials conclusively addressed the primary endpoints with positive results in 39% of trials. Exceeding 80% of target accrual serves as a reliable proxy for answering the intended scientific question. Conclusions: Approximately one third of phase III trials closed with insufficient accrual to address the primary endpoints, primarily due to poor accrual. Defining accrual sufficiency broader than meeting accrual targets represents a fairer account of trial closures. Clin Cancer Res; 18(1); 256–62. ©2011 AACR.

Purpose Current prognostic factors are poor at identifying patients at risk of disease recurrence after surgery for stage II colon cancer. Here we describe a DNA microarray–based prognostic assay using clinically relevant formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. Patients and Methods A gene signature was developed from a balanced set of 73 patients with recurrent disease (high risk) and 142 patients with no recurrence (low risk) within 5 years of surgery. Results The 634–probe set signature identified high-risk patients with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.62 (P < .001) during cross validation of the training set. In an independent validation set of 144 samples, the signature identified high-risk patients with an HR of 2.53 (P < .001) for recurrence and an HR of 2.21 (P = .0084) for cancer-related death. Additionally, the signature was shown to perform independently from known prognostic factors (P < .001). Conclusion This gene signature represents a novel prognostic biomarker for patients with stage II colon cancer that can be applied to FFPE tumor samples.