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• A speleothem record from Eastern North America spans three glacial/interglacial cycles. • The oxygen isotope record displays strong cyclicity in the precession band. • The record lags summer insolation at 65°N by ∼5000 yr. • The record is in phase with Northern Hemisphere fall insolation. • Our findings are consistent with North American climates being forced by global ice volumes. The nature and controls of orbital-scale climate variability in North America (NA) are subjects of ongoing debates. On the basis of previous cave records from Southwestern United States, two mutually incompatible hypotheses have been proposed. One links NA orbital-scale climate variability to Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer insolation forcing in a manner analogous to low-latitude monsoon systems, while the other suggests that it is not causally tied to either changes in global ice-volumes or NH summer insolation. Here we report new cave oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records from Buckeye Creek Cave (BCC), West Virginia, east central North America, covering most of the past three glacial-interglacial periods (∼335 to 45 kyr ago). The BCC δ 18 O record exhibits a strong precession-band cycle, which is in-phase with changes in global ice-volumes (i.e., sea level), sea surface temperatures in the NE Gulf of Mexico and is consistent with the results from published cave records from Nevada and Devils Hole. As with global ice-volume, the BCC records lag summer insolation at 65°N by ∼5000 yr, which stands in contrast with records of low-latitude monsoon variability in South America and Asia, which are in phase and out-of-phase with changes in summer insolation and sea level, respectively. Provided the degree of lag to summer insolation provides a measure of competing forcing from global ice-volume and summer insolation, our data suggest that NA orbital-scale climate variability is dominantly driven by ice-volume forcing. In addition, the sea surface temperatures in the NE Gulf of Mexico and changes in northern high-latitude cryosphere may be also important in explaining the unusually low δ 18 O values at times of the intermediate ice-volume periods in BCC and other NA cave records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A full‐spectrum characterization of past interglacial climate is a necessary prerequisite for the detection and attribution of climate changes during the current interglacial. Here we present a speleothem record of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial (MIS 11c), from Yongxing cave, China. The record's unprecedented chronologic constraints and decadal‐scale temporal resolution allow a precise and direct comparison of ASM between the MIS 11c and the Holocene. Our data suggest that orbital‐centennial patterns of ASM were remarkably similar during both interglacial, including their pacing and structure. Notably, a multi‐millennial stronger monsoon late in MIS 11c, the "Late‐MIS 11c shift," is similar to the Late Holocene strengthening of the ASM, the "2‐Kyr shift." Thus, the multicentennial ASM weakening at the end of the Late‐MIS 11c shift could imply that the current century‐long ASM waning trend may persist into the future, if only natural forcings are considered. Plain Language Summary: The interglacial of Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11c) is generally considered to be an appropriate natural climate analog to the current interglacial, the Holocene. A new speleothem oxygen‐isotope (δ18O) record is reconstructed to characterize Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability across MIS 11c on a wide range of timescales. This new record has an unprecedented high resolution (~11 years) and precise chronology constrained by 230Th dating and annual band counting. It thus allows for the first time a precise comparison of ASM variability between MIS 11c and the Holocene. We find that the observed pattern of decreasing ASM strength during the late portion of MIS 11c was interrupted by a multi‐millennial period of stronger monsoon (the "Late‐MIS 11c shift"), which is similar to the Late Holocene increase in ASM strength (the "2‐Kyr shift"), which also occurred against a backdrop of long‐term decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Notably, the Late‐MIS 11c shift was terminated by a multicentennial ASM weakening trend, thus suggesting that the current century‐long ASM waning trend could persist into the future, provided that the anthropogenic forcing does not supersede the natural variability. Key Points: A new high‐resolution record of the Asian summer monsoon is reconstructed over Marine Isotope Stage 11 as a natural analog to the HoloceneThe Marine Isotope Stage 11 record with a chronology constrained by annual band counting shows climate variability similar to the HoloceneThe projection of the Marine Isotope Stage 11‐Holocene comparison into the future suggests a weakening trend for the Asian summer monsoon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) constitutes one of key proxies to reconstruct the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon (ISM and EASM) hydroclimate history on a wide range of timescales. Here, we use three new well-dated speleothem δ18O records from Tianmen cave, in the south-central Tibetan Plateau (TP), together with previous records from the same cave, to reconstruct a composite Tianmen record spanning over the past 414,000 years. The Tianmen δ18O record follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI), broadly coherent with speleothem δ18O records from both ISM and EASM regimes. In comparison with previous model simulations and modern hydroclimate analyses, the Tianmen δ18O was interpreted primarily as a proxy indicating the ISM intensity. The Tianmen δ18O record comprises both high and low NHSI time periods, which reveals an exceptional large amplitude (∼14‰) of δ18O variations at the precession band, possibly resulted from a combination effect of precipitation amount, moisture source, transport pathway, high elevation and rainout. Besides, a broad consistency on orbital-scale variability among Tianmen δ18O, δ13C and trace element records is found, suggesting that the ISM intensity regulates the effective rainfall at the cave site as well. Notably, Tianmen speleothem growth occurred merely during warm-wet interglacial periods, even during low NHSI times near the precession maximum, and in contrast, hiatuses persistently occurred throughout cold-dry glacial periods. This pattern is similar to that found in travertine formations in the region, both suggesting that the interglacial temperature might be a prerequisite for speleothem/travertine formations in the region, while the strong ISM precipitation in turn provides a sufficient condition. Our new Tianmen record, combined with a large set of speleothem records from both Asian Westerlies and Asian monsoon domains, gives further evidence to reinforce a previous hypothesis: a consistent temporal pattern in the δ18O of precipitation on orbital and millennial scales over the vast Asian monsoon and Westerlies regimes. As such, in order to reconcile the precipitation δ18O variations between speleothem and TP ice cores, we argue that the Guliya ice-core chronology may have a basal age of ∼70 ka BP , which is supported by recent dating results from the Guliya ice cap. • Speleothem δ18O records from the south-central Tibetan Plateau primarily indicate the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity. • Combined effect results in a large amplitude (∼14‰) of Tianmen cave δ18O variations at the precession band. • Interglacial temperature and high ISM precipitation are critical factors for the speleothem formations in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and models suggest a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation as a result of ongoing global climatic warming. However, the dynamic link between temperature and regional precipitation in the course of natural climatic variability during the current interglacial period remains unclear, especially in the monsoon regions of China. Here we present a reconstruction of a ∼5 year-resolution summer monsoon rainfall record for the past 3200 years, based on 622 pairs of δ18O and δ13C and 29 230Th dates from a stalagmite (Wu37) from Wulu Cave in southern China. A close similarity between the δ18O and δ13C records on centennial to decadal timescales suggests that calcite δ18O is most likely a proxy associated with monsoon precipitation. The record reveals that the Little Ice Age (650 - 100 yr B.P.) was a relatively humid period, with two centennial-scale wet events, compared with the Medieval Warm Period (1050 - 650 yr B.P.). In contrast with previous observations in India and northern China, monsoon precipitation variations indicated by our record and other cave records nearby were inversely related to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature over the past two millennia, in particular to variations in the thermal gradient between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This suggests that NH temperature has an important influence on summer precipitation in southern China, via the interhemispheric thermal gradient and land-ocean thermal contrast. In addition, we find that variations of monsoon rainfall in southern China on multi-centennial to centennial timescales are inversely correlated with observed rainfall in the core monsoon region of India and in the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. This spatial pattern of rainfall variability can be interpreted as a result of the migration of the intertropical convergence zone that is likely dominated by the interhemispheric thermal gradient via cross-equatorial airflows. • Increase of monsoon precipitation in southern China (SC) since the LIA. • Anti-phase relationship between SC precipitation and NH temperature. • A negative correlation between precipitation in SC and India, northern China. • A direct control of NH temperature on the shifts of the ITCZ rainbelt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]