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Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a toolkit that allows you to effectively predict the decision of the Central Bank to change the key rate.Methods: Using the methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression, a model has been built that shows that there is a close relationship between the key rate and inflation, the volume of currency in circulation, and inflation expectations of the population.Result: The results of the study are consistent with the findings presented in previous works, indicating that inflation is the main factor in making decisions about raising and/or lowering the key rate.Conclusion: The findings of the study suggest that a more thorough analysis of additional factors is necessary, which will allow for the development of a qualitative forecast of economic growth and outline ways to stabilize prices. As a result of the analysis, an equation is obtained that can be used to predict the level of the key rate when certain macroeconomic indicators change.