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We use quantile regressions to model monetary policy reaction functions in three small open economies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Focusing on Taylor-type rules, we find evidence of asymmetric interest rate responses for all the countries considered, with monetary policy reacting more strongly to inflation when interest rates are high than when they are low. This is consistent with previous research suggesting that central bankers place more weight on positive deviations of inflation from its target than negative ones. In contrast, the interest rate response to the output gap is largely symmetric and small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of committee decisions based on new information since the previous meeting. We characterize this process as a dynamic ordered probit process that uses information to decide between three possible outcomes for interest rates: an increase, decrease or no change. When we analyse the predictive ability of two information sets, we find that the approach has predictive ability both in-sample and out-of-sample that helps forecast the direction of future rates. Copyright © 2008 John wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]