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A review of ALEX POLLOCK & HOWARD ADLER, SURPRISED AGAIN! THE COVID CRISIS AND THE NEW MARKET BUBBLE (2022) I approach phenomena that I don't understand with good cheer and [...]

Reaching for yield, which we define as an investor preference for higher-yield bonds at a given rating or for higher-rated bonds at given yields, is associated with inflated valuation and thus negatively predicts risk-adjusted returns. Controlling for ratings, alphas are lower for higher-yield bonds, whereas, controlling for yields, alphas are lower for safer-looking, higher-rated bonds. Future bond returns are particularly low when current interest rates are low and demand from yield-reaching investors increases. These bonds experience more frequent downgrades and defaults, suggesting that they are riskier despite their high valuation. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Supplemental Material: The e-companion and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4920. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our article contains three critical elements. First, by way of motivation, we consider active optimal mean-variance portfolios within the confines of a three-risky-asset model (based on common equity, corporate bonds, and long-dated Treasury securities) and a short-term, riskless security. Within that context, our article models and numerically demonstrates the impact of the magnitude and sign of the interest-rate term premium in optimal asset allocation. Then, based on interest-rate survey data, we demonstrate the occurrence of a negative term premium in the Treasury market, and proceed to permit such an occurrence within a model whereby asset returns covary with a market portfolio. Finally, turning to empirics, we document the relationship between the sign of the term premium and the sign of the covariance between Treasury and equity returns. Recognizing the deficiency in using historical data as inputs to active optimal mean-variance portfolios, we seek to obtain forward-looking inputs to render our model prospective (rather than merely retrospective): we design and implement tests for obtaining forward-looking measures of covariation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the backdrop of the gradually exposed credit bond default risk in China, how to accurately identify and efficiently warn of corporate bond default risk has become a key concern for both academia and practice. To effectively solve a series of key problems in the traditional credit risk warning model, such as insufficient warning performance, single optimization target of hyperparameters, and weak model interpretability, this study integrates machine learning algorithms such as LightGBM, NSGA- II, and SHAP to constructs a LightGBM-NSGA- II-SHAP for early warning of corporate bond default risk, and empirically analyzes and tests the warning performance of the proposed model. The research results show that the warning accuracy of the proposed model exceed 85%, and compared with traditional machine learning models, the warning performance of the proposed model in this study is more excellent. In addition, the impact of visualization of warning features on warning results is demonstrated through the SHAP algorithm, and it is found that coupon interest rate, profit margin on fixed assets, total issuance, and receivable turnover etc. are the key features for identifying corporate bond defaults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that interest rates and credit spreads are negatively correlated. Any successful model for pricing callable corporate bonds has to take this correlation into account. A new approach for the analysis of corporate bond options is developed by using two correlated geometric Brownian motion (GBM) processes for the spread and interest rate components of corporate bond yields. Analysis of the results and comparison with market prices suggest that the traditional methods of calculating the option premium overestimate the value of the call option. Our analysis can also explain why risk neutral credit spreads are significantly wider than implied by default probability and in fact justify higher spreads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest rates have risen rapidly in many advanced economies over the last two years, leading to a monetary squeeze. The impact of this squeeze varies across countries due to factors such as private debt levels, the distribution of debt, and the average maturity of fixed rate debt. The UK, Italy, and Germany are expected to be the hardest hit economies, while Korea and Japan will be the least affected. Other indicators of the monetary squeeze include money and credit growth, changes in bank credit standards, quantitative tightening, and property price changes. Overall, the findings suggest downside risks to growth in Italy, Spain, and Australia, while supporting positive GDP forecasts for Korea and Japan. [Extracted from the article]

Using the structural approach to derive tax-adjusted duration for defaultable bonds under stochastic interest rate process, we thoroughly investigate the effects of personal taxes, default risk, and their interaction on bond duration. The simulation results show that default risk reduces duration, while personal taxes increase duration. Premium amortization and discount accretion further enhance the positive impact of personal taxes on duration. The interactive effect of default risk and personal taxes on duration depends on which effect dominates. Also, the tax effect on duration changes with bond features, bond issuers' debt policy, and interest rate level. Our empirical results validate the positive tax effect on duration by showing that duration of corporate bonds is significantly longer than that of municipal counterparts with the same credit rating, coupon rate, and maturity. Our study provides timely information on how to accurately measure interest rate risk under the current circumstance that interest rate is increasing substantially from the low level and personal taxes are expected to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights the U.S. unemployment rate's slight increase to 3.80 present in August, despite efforts by the Fed to address inflation, with experts like doctor Ray Perryman and Wells Fargo noting the economy's resilience. It mentions Rajeev Dhawan expresses concern about a 'white-collar recession' due to job compressions in various sectors, affecting upward mobility and leading to reluctance in taking on higher-rate mortgages in certain segments of the workforce.

This article provides an overview of different models and approaches used to analyze transition risk for corporate bonds. It discusses the two-factor model and the Vašíček model, which are commonly used in credit risk calculations. The article also mentions the use of historic transition matrices, probability distributions, and copulas to create risk distributions for parameters. The K-means clustering algorithm is introduced as a non-parametric model for analyzing transition matrices. The article emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and the challenges of modeling financial and non-financial firms separately. Further research is needed to improve understanding and application of these models. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Die Unternehmensbesteuerung (Ubg) is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study addresses interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt. Previous research suggests that interest rate sensitivity of corporate bonds depends on residual maturity of issues, creditworthiness of issuers, embedded options and other idiosyncratic factors. However, the dependence of interest rate sensitivity on phases of the business cycle has not received an appropriate academic attention. This paper provides empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation of a dichotomy of interest rate sensitivity across the phases of the cycle, and sheds light on how credit spreads respond to interest rates. The historical span of the research covers the period of 2004–2016. The findings imply that hedging interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process and take into consideration where the economy is positioned in the current business cycle. This research provides important insights on the nature of interest rate sensitivity, capable of enhancing financial stability and improving efficiency of financial system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The LIBOR manipulation scandal of 2008 spurred extensive policy debates regarding the importance of market-based reference rates. The alternative reference rates committee (ARRC) eventually identified the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) to be a suitable replacement to LIBOR. In this study, we question the underlying process behind the choice of SOFR as a replacement for LIBOR. Both academic literature and regulatory bodies fail to identify a consistent definition and criteria of a good reference rate. We fill in this gap in the literature by providing an empirically testable 'checklist' to evaluate any potential money market rate to gauge its suitability as a reference rate. We also carry out an empirical evaluation of various money market rates against our criteria and identify the 1-month AA non-financial commercial paper rate as the best available replacement for LIBOR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of NTU Management Review is the property of NTU Management Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Die Unternehmensbesteuerung (Ubg) is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)