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The interest rate was and still a point of difference between economists. This difference is based on a difference in understanding the nature of the market in which the interest rate is determined and in enumerating the influencing factors in this market. Interest rate has a role to play in the national economy, but this role differs from one country to another due to different economic and political conditions. This study sheds light on the impact of changes of the US interest rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate on the domestic interest rate in five emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, Turkey, China, and South Africa). The experimental results of the study were estimated by the dynamic least squares method and the causality test using monthly data during the period 2011-2019. The study concluded that the US interest rate has an inverse relationship with the interest rates of all sample countries included in the study at a significant level (5%). The increase in inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate contributed to raising interest rates in the sample country. The results of causality test also indicated that the inflation rate and the exchange rate cause interest rates in Brazil, Turkey and South Africa in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in Türkiye over the [2005, 2019] period. We employ the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model involving 125 macroeconomic variables, including economic activity, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, price level, and their sub-items. We aim to provide a comprehensive and coherent picture of the effect of monetary policy on the Turkish economy compared to the standard VARs. We examine the effects of two shocks on Turkish economy: 'interbank interest rate', a proxy variable for the policy rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, and 'spread', an alternative monetary policy measure which is the difference between interbank interest rate and treasury auction rate. Both of these shocks have significant effects on key macroeconomic variables in Türkiye. A positive interbank interest rate shock decreases the industrial production index, money supply, and real effective exchange rate, while increasing the short- and long-term deposit interest rates, which are largely consistent with conventional wisdom. However, following the monetary tightening, consumer inflation increases, contrary to economic theory. Thus, the price puzzle is observed. But a positive spread shock decreases the consumer inflation and the price puzzle disappears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The highest rate of inflation was observed as countries faced increasing prices for food and energy, primarily due to supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. In such challenging times, interest rate-based monetary policy remains an important issue for fighting inflation. From a policy perspective, central banks all over the globe tighten their monetary policy stance to cool inflation. Arguably, Turkey opted for an ultra-lose monetary policy via very low interest rates in response to high inflation. Drawing on the Turkish experience, we tackle the evolution of the Turkish central bank's operations in the face of high inflation, providing further details on how ultra-loose monetary policy implementation can be extremely challenging in a highly inflationary economy. We extend the existing body of literature by employing the time-varying Granger causality model proposed by Shi et al. (J Time Ser Anal 39:966–987,2018; J Financ Econom 18:158–180, 2020). Using monthly data (2005:01 to 2022:01), we examine the links between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates to detect possible changes across various time horizons. The major finding of this study explores the significant episodes of causality by detecting the origination date of causality starting from 2018 toward 2021. This finding confirms that August 2018 and its repercussions on the sharp currency depreciation and high Turkish inflation are pivotal moments to understand the nature of Turkey's economic growth model and the impact of monetary policy in the ongoing economic crisis that hit Turkey harder. Our results reveal that a poorly managed country's interest rate decisions can be disastrous for the exchange rate movements and inflation dynamics, whereas the conclusion is that there are limits to what central banks can do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the 2008 global financial crisis has radically changed monetary policies, it is seen that the Taylor Rule still has a wide place in practice. The aim of this study is to examine the reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey with the Extended Taylor Rule model for two sub-periods. In this way, it is determined how sensitive the monetary policy in Turkey has changed in the post-crisis period to which macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, monetary policy for the period 2011:04-2019:07 was modeled with the extended Taylor Rule and estimated with the linear Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. In the analysis, it is divided into two sub-periods according to the CBRT presidents. The period between 2011:04-2016:03 represents Erdem Basci, and the period between 2016:04-2019:07 represents the Murat Cetinkaya period. The data used in the econometric analysis are the CBRT weighted average funding cost, inflation rate, industrial production index and USD/TL exchange rate. According to the impulse response analysis, the main findings are that the CBRT reacts increasingly to a shock in the exchange rate in both periods and does not react to a shock in the industrial production index. The severity of the shocks is different in the two periods. In the Cetinkaya period, the interest rate reacted more severely to the fluctuations in the exchange rate compared to the Basci period. Variance decomposition also supports this result. In the Cetinkaya period, the share of the exchange rate in the variance of the interest rate is higher. As a result, the reaction function reacts differently to different variables in both sub-periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan and Turkey share the same macroeconomic fundamentals as energy dependence, double digits inflation, and tremendous currency depreciation. This paper aims at analyzing the impact that exchange rate, interest rate, and oil price have on the inflation rate in Turkey and Pakistan by using the data period of 2010:M1-2021:M12 and employing the wavelet coherence model. The results show that currency deprecation boosts inflation in both economies. Interest contribution to inflation is more significant in the case of Pakistan compared to Turkey while oil prices only increase inflation in Pakistan compared to turkey. To reduce the impact of currency depreciation on inflation in both nations, an increase in export policy can be implemented, similarly, foreign direct investment can be attracted. Additionally, both nations need to increase the inflow of funds and need to reduce the outflow of funds which will also help them stabilize the currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Marmara University Social Sciences Institute / Öneri is the property of Marmara University, Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Is exchange rate volatility an important determinant of tax revenues? This study seeks, in the light of this question, empirical evidence on the relationship between volatility in exchange rates and tax revenues in the case of Turkey. Monthly data on exchange rate volatility, tax revenues, industrial production index and inflation rate for the period 2006:01-2019:12 are utilized for research purposes. The short-run and longrun dynamics between the variables are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to shed some light on the macroeconomic determinants of tax revenues, with a new perspective considering exchange rate volatility. The results of the ARDL bounds test show that volatility in the exchange rate has a negative effect on tax revenues in the long-run, but positively in the short-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aimed to study the evolution of the inflation rate, the quantity of money supply, exchange rate, interest rate and GDP, stability test in Turkey, measuring the effect of independent variables in the dependent variable (inflation rate) The second hypothesis: there is an effect of the exchange rate on inflation in Turkey, and the third hypothesis: there is an effect of the interest rate on inflation in Turkey, and the fourth hypothesis: There is an impact of the domestic output Total on inflation in the study data were obtained using the following sources: Reports issued by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, various international political and economic organizations, and various Arab and foreign references (letters, books, diaries, reports, etc). The results of the research: Turkey's growth rose from %2.9in 2014to %4.2in 2015. It is much higher than expected, despite the geopolitical tensions (the violence in southeastern Turkey and the refugee crisis emanating from Syria), and the low rate Inflation in Turkey from %8.85in 2014to %7.67in 2015. The relationship between inflation and the quantity of money supply in Turkey is also positive and the correlation between inflation and exchange rate is positive and the relation between inflation and the quantity of money supply in Turkey, That the positive relationship between inflation and GDP in Turkey [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Economic & Social Research is the property of Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Carry trade is a speculative financial transaction and a leveraged exchange rate position. Thus, a sudden unwinding in carry trade position leads to a sharp depreciates in the high-interest currency and to increase exchange rate volatility. It can cause global imbalances and financial crises and therefore it can ensue as a source of financial fragility and instability. In this study, we examined effects of unwinding of carry trade on financial variables in regimes when interest rate differential and TL/USD exchange rate volatility are high and low, over the period of January 2005-September 2017 in Turkey. From the results of this study, we concluded that a sudden unwinding of carry trade position led to decrease of interest rate and BİST 100 return and increase of inflation rate in regimes when interest rate differential is high and low. So-called unwinding led to depreciate Turkish Lira and decrease of BİST 100 return in regimes when exchange rate volatility is high and low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to establish the possible existence of the long-run interrelationship between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in five EMEs (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey), what is so-called by Morgan Stanley 'Fragile Five'. To do so, we utilize Li and Lee's [2010. "ADL Tests for Threshold Cointegration." Journal of Time Series Analysis 31 (4): 241–254.] Autoregressive Distributed Lag test for threshold cointegration and apply it to the sample country's time-series data from 2013:m1 to 2018:m12. Overall, our results are threefold: First, there seems to be a long-run positive relationship between actual rates of inflation and nominal interest rates supporting the validity of the ex-post Fisher hypothesis for all the sample countries. Second, the results support the presence of a cointegrating relationship between interest rates and exchange rates for Brazil, India, and Turkey but not for Indonesia and South Africa. Lastly, without exception, exchange rates and actual rates of inflation in all the sample countries tend to co-move in the long-run, implying that the depreciation of their currencies creates an inflationary effect on domestic prices through raising the prices of imported goods. The results above are widely consistent with both theoretical expectations and the relevant empirical literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of the study is to determine financial relations between principal macro-economic indicators in Turkey empirically. In this respect, it is necessary to examine whether there is a pass-through effect of inflation and interest rate on the exchange rate and to examine the relation between inflation and interest rate. The period between April 2018 and January 2003 is used in the analysis, data on average monthly exchange rate, inflation and interest rates. In the study, cointegration analysis was done with ARDL bound test approach and then was done also causality analysis with Toda-Yamamoto test. According to the findings obtained from the study it has been found to be unidirectional causality from exchange rate to inflation and interest rates. According to the results, the effect of the exchange rate on the interest rate and inflation is valid. On the other hand according to the findings it has been identified cointegration relationship between interest rates and inflation in Turkey and concludes that the verification of the Fisher hypothesis has been reached. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Administrative Sciences / Yonetim Bilimleri Dergisi is the property of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart Universitesi, Terzioglu Kampusu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of the Cukurova University Institute of Social Sciences is the property of Cukurova University Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper investigates the interrelations between purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) in Turkey using Johansen cointegration analysis for a system containing Turkish and US inflation rates, interest rates, and exchange rate. The results of a structural model obtained by data-acceptable over-identifying restrictions over the cointegration space suggest the existence of two cointegration vectors representing UIP and PPP with proportionality and symmetry conditions, respectively. Consistent with the c apital en h anced e quilibrium e xchange r ates (CHEERs) approach, each of the international parity hypotheses is rejected when formulated independently. This is a theiry-consistent result for a financially open economy for which equilibrium conditions of asset and commodity markets may not be independent of each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]