14 results on '"Young, Joseph"'
Search Results
2. Tugging on Superman's Cape: Why Some Insurgencies Are Targets of Foreign Militaries.
- Author
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Asal, Victor, Young, Joseph K., Jahanbani, Nakissa, and Levy, Suzanne Weedon
- Subjects
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INTERVENTION (International law) , *REGRESSION trees , *NON-state actors (International relations) , *LOGISTIC regression analysis , *REGRESSION analysis , *INSURGENCY - Abstract
Why do foreign militaries attack some insurgencies and not others? Although foreign involvement in civil conflicts is on the rise, many insurgencies are not targeted militarily by external powers. Current research suggests organizations that are lethal or that attack democracies should be targeted more often. We argue that organizations that have vital markers of capabilities, such as alliances with other violent non-state actors (VNSAs) and territorial control, and the ability to attack members of a powerful country, in this case, U.S. citizens at home or abroad, are more likely to be targeted. Our empirical analysis supports this contention: we use a logistic regression model and, in post-estimation, predicted probabilities and a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model to understand the effect of potential factors on international military interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Repression, Dissent, and the Onset of Civil War
- Author
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Young, Joseph K.
- Published
- 2013
4. Shifting sands: Explaining and predicting phase shifts by dissident organizations
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Shellman, Stephen M, Levey, Brian P, and Young, Joseph K
- Published
- 2013
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5. Killing Civilians or Holding Territory? How to Think about Terrorism
- Author
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Dugan, Laura, LaFree, Gary, De la Calle, Luis, Sánchez-Cuenca, Ignacio, Asal, Victor, Findley, Michael G., and Young, Joseph K.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
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6. Terrorism and Civil War: A Spatial and Temporal Approach to a Conceptual Problem
- Author
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Findley, Michael G. and Young, Joseph K.
- Published
- 2012
7. Carrots, Sticks, and Insurgent Targeting of Civilians.
- Author
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Asal, Victor, Phillips, Brian J., Rethemeyer, R. Karl, Simonelli, Corina, and Young, Joseph K.
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TERRORISM ,COUNTERINSURGENCY ,CRIMES against civilians in war ,INSURGENCY ,CIVIL war - Abstract
How do conciliatory and coercive counterinsurgency tactics affect militant group violence against civilians? Scholars of civil war increasingly seek to understand intentional civilian targeting, often referred to as terrorism. Extant research emphasizes group weakness, or general state attributes such as regime type. We focus on terrorism as violent communication and as a response to government actions. State tactics toward groups, carrots and sticks, should be important for explaining insurgent terror. We test the argument using new data on terrorism by insurgent groups, with many time-varying variables, covering 1998 through 2012. Results suggest government coercion against a group is associated with subsequent terrorism by that group. However, this is only the case for larger insurgent groups, which raises questions about the notion of terrorism as a weapon of the weak. Carrots are often negatively related to group terrorism. Other factors associated with insurgent terrorism include holding territory, ethnic motivation, and social service provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Terrorism and Civil War: A Spatial and Temporal Approach to a Conceptual Problem.
- Author
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Findley, Michael G. and Young, Joseph K.
- Subjects
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TERRORISM , *CIVIL war , *POLITICAL violence , *TERRORISTS , *INSURGENCY - Abstract
What is the relationship between civil war and terrorism? Recent attempts to un- pack the similarities between these types of political violence have either focused on creating actor-based categories (terrorists vs. insurgents) and elucidating the different reasons for being one or the other or comparing and contrasting each to discern whether they have similar etiologies. In contrast to previous approaches, we use geo-referenced terror event data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to show where and when terror happens and whether it occurs inside or outside of civil war zones. We investigate in detail six separate violent campaigns to illustrate some of the patterns in terrorism and civil war events. While the study of terrorism and civil war mostly occurs in separate scholarly communities, we argue for more work that incorporates insights from each research program and we offer an exciting possibility for future research by merging geo-referenced terror and civil war data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
9. Veto Players and Terror.
- Author
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Dugan, Laura and Young, Joseph
- Subjects
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TERRORISM , *TERRORISTS , *SCHOLARS , *DEMOCRACY , *POLITICAL crimes & offenses , *INSURGENCY , *INTERNATIONAL crimes - Abstract
A recent explosion of work has occurred seeking to understand under what conditions groups use terror to pursue their goals. Regime type is one condition that is prominently discussed. Democratic regimes have been linked to terrorism for contending reasons with some scholars claiming that constraints on the executive and free civil rights increase the likelihood of these regimes experiencing terror while other scholars claim that democracy promotes nonviolent political participation thus reducing the likelihood of terror.Corroborating evidence has been used for both relationships leading to the following puzzle: why do some democratic regimes seem to foster terrorism while others do not? We offer three contributions to this debate. Beginning with the assumption that terror groups want to change government policy, we argue that the more veto players present in a political system, the more likely the system is to experience deadlock. Given the inability of societal actors to change policies through nonviolent and institutional participation, these regimes will have a greater likelihood of experiencing terror events. Second, we argue that the terrorism data generating process has been misidentified. In short, two types of zeros exist in terrorism data that are different but have been treated the same in previous models.Some states across the entire period of most samples never experience terror while other states only experience terror in a few years and thus have some probability of experiencing terror in the future. We use zero-inflated count models to model this process. Third, we use new data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) that was previously unavailable. Unlike previous terrorism databases, this new data incorporates both domestic and international incidents of terrorism while spanning from 1970 to 1997. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2008
10. More Combatant Groups, More Terror?: Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic.
- Author
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Findley, Michael G. and Young, Joseph K.
- Subjects
SUICIDE terrorism ,INSURGENCY ,TERRORISM statistics ,TERRORIST organizations ,POLITICAL violence ,ETHNIC conflict ,INTERGROUP relations ,VIOLENCE research ,CROSS-cultural studies - Abstract
We examine and test the logic that outbidding among insurgent groups results in more suicide terrorism specifically and more terrorism of any type, which has become a popular argument in recent years. A global analysis of terrorism from 1970–2004 provides scant support for the notion that outbidding increases suicide terrorism. An extension of the argument to all types of terrorist attacks provides even less support. The logic of outbidding has received considerable attention in academic and policy circles in recent years. Similar to the argument that democratic occupation increases suicide terror, our lack of empirical support suggests that considerable cross-national work is still needed to understand suicide terror adequately. We suggest some reasons why this may be the case, drawing particular attention to the problem of overgeneralizing from a limited set of cases. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
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11. Promise and Pitfalls of Terrorism Research.
- Author
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Young, Joseph K. and Findley, Michael G.
- Subjects
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TERRORISM , *QUANTITATIVE research , *DYADS , *TERRORISTS , *POLITICAL crimes & offenses , *INSURGENCY , *INTERNATIONAL crimes - Abstract
Using a database of recent articles published in prominent political science journals, we show the rapid increase in terrorism research. Given this increased awareness and attention, we identify several problems that still plague the study of political terrorism including definitional problems that lack empirical tests, not distinguishing among different types of terrorism, and using the wrong unit of analysis when designing research. After identifying these problems-especially as they relate to the quantitative study of terrorism-we suggest some solutions. We then apply these suggestions to investigate whether changing the definition of terrorism, different types of terrorism, or changing the unit of analysis affects key predictors of terror events cross-nationally. One of our tests consists of varying the unit of observation to include directed dyads, which offers the potential to test some of the many strategic models of terrorism. Our analysis suggests that varying definitions of terrorism, such as military vs. non-military targets, might not be that consequential, whereas different types of terrorism, such as domestic vs. transnational, could be driven by fundamentally different processes. We also conclude that modeling transnational terrorism differently using directed dyads yields new and interesting insights into the process of terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Fighting Fire with Fire? How (Not) to Neutralize an Insurgency.
- Author
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Findley, Michael G. and Young, Joseph K.
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POLITICAL violence , *INSURGENCY , *ATTRITION (Military science) , *MILITARY strategy ,CHECHEN War, 1994-1996 - Abstract
From as early as the Roman Empire to the present day, governments have grappled with how best to respond to political violence from organized insurgent groups. In response to insurgent groups, some governments have emphasized a direct military response or what is often called 'attrition'. Other states have stressed a softer, political strategy or what is often called the 'hearts and minds' approach. Either approach places the population at the center of a struggle between the government and violent dissidents. Despite numerous works emphasizing either 'attrition' or 'hearts and minds', few theoretical studies have attempted to compare their relative success. Using an agent-based computational model, we examine which approach is more successful at quelling insurgencies and find that a hearts and minds approach is superior to an attrition strategy. We illustrate the model with insights from the Iraqi insurgency and, more generally, the model has implications for other insurgencies, such as in Chechnya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
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13. Iron Fists or Velvet Gloves?: How to Reduce (or Increase) Insurgent Attacks.
- Author
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Young, Joseph K.
- Subjects
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INSURGENCY , *COUNTERINSURGENCY , *CIVIL war , *POLITICAL crimes & offenses , *REVOLUTIONS , *RESISTANCE to government - Abstract
What counterinsurgent tactics pursued by governments lead to the pacification of insurgents? Some governments pursue iron fist techniques, or repressive counterinsurgent tactics to reduce the capabilities of insurgents. An alternative, velvet glove operations, have the same goal of pacifying the opposition, but are implemented using less aggressive tactics. Case studies of counterinsurgent techniques often demonstrate that more aggressive tactics may actually increase participation in insurgencies as indiscriminant violence pushes potential rebels into active rebellion. Empirical evidence, however, reveal the brutal efficiency of iron fist tactics when unrestrained by domestic or international audiences. In this paper, using events data from Iraq, I evaluate the relative efficacy of these approaches in the current insurgency facing the US and its partners. I also identify the implications for counterinsurgency in other contexts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
14. Modeling Dynamic Violence: Integrating Events Data Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling.
- Author
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Findley, Michael G., Shellman, Stephen, and Young, Joseph K.
- Subjects
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VIOLENCE , *INSURGENCY , *POPULATION dynamics , *MULTIAGENT systems , *DATA analysis - Abstract
Which actions by governments stoke or pacify an insurgency? Scholarly research on the topic has often been relegated to the country level, comparing across large units and rarely looking inside the state. Our research focuses on the primary actors in a contest for authority within a state: the government, dissidents, and the population. In contrast to extant subnational work, we address the difficult question of how population dynamics affect the rise and fall of insurgency. We investigate the question in the context of India and its subnational administrative districts. India is particularly well suited to this research as it presently experiences varying levels of terrorism, insurgency, ethnic conflict, riots and other actions that threaten the stability of the state. Using an agent-based model (ABM), geographic information systems (GIS), data on public sentiment, and events data, we address this question from a multidisciplinary approach. The agent-based model formalizes the interactions of states, dissidents, and the population, the GIS framework allows for actual demographic and geographic information to influence this interaction, and the events data and sentiment data allow us to test empirical implications from the model directly. As the NSF-Minerva grant is midstream, this paper reports our ongoing efforts to couple the ABM and empirical analysis. We expect the results to have important implications for the study of political violence, order, and state-building. The approach is policy relevant, furthermore, and can be adapted to other regions and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
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