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To assess post-COVID-19 changes in insurance coverage, health behaviors, and self-assessed health among low-income, non-elderly adults by state Medicaid expansion status.We used nationally representative survey data from the 2016 through 2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The sample was restricted to adults aged 19-64 with household income below 138 percent of the federal poverty level (N = 179,135).We examined a broad set of outcomes related to coverage, health behaviors, and self-assessed health available in the BRFSS. We used a difference-in-differences model to compare changes in outcomes for individuals living in the 35 states and DC that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to those in the 15 non-expansion states before and after the COVID-19 pandemic commenced in March 2020.N/A.We found that the expansions provided some protection for low-income people during the pandemic. In 2020, relative to earlier years, people in expansion states were more likely to report very good or excellent health (4.9 percentage points, 95%CI = 0.022, 0.076; p 0.01) and physical health (-0.393 days of poor physical health in the past month, 95%CI = -0.714, -0.072; p 0.05), lower rates of smoking (-1.9 percentage points, 95%CI = -0.041, 0.004; p 0.10) and heavy drinking (-1.4 percentage points, 95%CI = -0.025, -0.004; p 0.01), and higher flu vaccination rates (2.8 percentage points, 95%CI = 0.005, 0.051; p 0.05) than those in non-expansion states. These benefits were particularly salient for Black and Hispanic individuals. We found no significant differences in insurance coverage, exercise, obesity, and self-assessed mental health between expansion and non-expansion states for the overall low-income sample. However, the expansion was associated with greater insurance coverage for Hispanic adults during the pandemic.Investments in public health through expanding Medicaid may shield low-income populations from some of the health ramifications of public health emergencies.

This study examines the longer term relationship between public health insurance expansions and health behaviors. I leverage geographic and temporal variation in the implementation of the Affordable Care Act-facilitated Medicaid expansions and provide the first estimates of the expansions' behavioral impacts during their first 5 years. Using national survey data from the 2010 to 2018 Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System and a difference-in-differences regression design, I show that the Medicaid expansions increase utilization of certain forms of preventive care, while reducing heavy drinking. I also find suggestive evidence that the expansions reduce smoking and increase the probability of exercise. These results stand in contrast with earlier studies that used only 2 or 3 years of postexpansion data and found no detectable effect of the Medicaid expansions on health behaviors in the short run. My results, combined with evidence from previous studies, suggest that public insurance expansions may not prompt an immediate change in health behaviors, but newly eligible populations do increase investments in healthy behaviors over time. In the long run, Medicaid expansions may help reduce engagement in risky behaviors like drinking and smoking among low-income people.

A growing body of literature examining the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on nonelderly adults provides promising evidence of improvements in health outcomes through insurance expansions. Our review of forty-three studies that employed a quasi-experimental research design found encouraging evidence of improvements in health status, chronic disease, maternal and neonatal health, and mortality, with some findings corroborated by multiple studies. Some studies further suggested that the beneficial effects have grown over time and thus may continue to grow if the ACA insurance expansions remain in force. However, not all studies reported a significant positive relationship between ACA provisions that expanded insurance coverage and health status. We highlight the challenges facing researchers, including the importance of nonmedical factors in determining individual health and the use of outcome data predominantly drawn from self-reports. In closing, we identify opportunities to enhance researchers' understanding of the relationship between the ACA insurance expansions and health outcomes using new data sources, including electronic health records.

Introduction Health insurance expansions may increase early detection of cancer and reduce late-stage cancer incidence. The study assesses the effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansions on rates of early- and late-stage cancer diagnosis up to 3 years after implementation. Methods Population-based quasi-experimental analysis of nonelderly adults was conducted in 732 counties from the 2010–2016 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry data. Multivariate event study regressions were estimated to compare annual changes in county-level rates of cancer diagnoses in states that expanded Medicaid with those that did not. Data analysis was performed from May to October 2019. Results Medicaid expansion was associated with an increase in early-stage cancer diagnoses of 21.3 per 100,000 population (95% CI=2.9, 35.2) or 9.14% of population in its first year; estimates for Years 2 and 3 were also positive but smaller and not statistically significant. There was a marginally significant reduction in late-stage diagnoses of 8.7 per 100,000 population (95% CI= −25.0, 3.4) or 5.7% of population relative to baseline, 3 years after Medicaid expansion. There was no detectable effect of expansion on total diagnoses. Conclusions Medicaid expansions increased early-stage cancer diagnosis in the first year of expansion, but effects dissipated in subsequent years, suggesting a response to pent-up patient demand for screening and diagnostic services immediately after expansion. There was also suggestive evidence of reductions in late-stage diagnosis in the third year of Medicaid expansion, highlighting the potential role of public health insurance in improving cancer outcomes among nonelderly adults.

Little is known about how the Affordable Care Act might have differentially affected insurance coverage for self-employed workers, wage earners with and without offers of employer-sponsored insurance, and people not employed. We found that the self-employed and wage earners without employer coverage offers had coverage gains equal to or greater than those of people not employed.

Purpose To analyze the differential rural-urban impacts of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on low-income childless adults’ health insurance coverage. Methods Using data from the American Community Survey years 2011-2015, we conducted a difference-in-differences regression analysis to test for changes in the probability of low-income childless adults having insurance in states that expanded Medicaid versus states that did not expand, in rural versus urban areas. Analyses employed survey weights, adjusted for covariates, and included a set of falsification tests as well as sensitivity analyses. Findings Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act increased the probability of Medicaid coverage for targeted populations in rural and urban areas, with a significantly greater increase in rural areas (P < .05), but some of these gains were offset by reductions in individual purchased insurance among rural populations (P < .01). Falsification tests showed that the insurance increases were specific to low-income childless adults, as expected, and were largely insignificant for other populations. Conclusions The Medicaid expansion increased the probability of having “any insurance” for the pooled urban and rural low-income populations, and it specifically increased Medicaid coverage more in rural versus urban populations. There was some evidence that the expansion was accompanied by some shifting from individual purchased insurance to Medicaid in rural areas, and there is a need for future work to understand the implications of this shift on expenditures, access to care and utilization.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 incentivized states to expand eligibility for their Medicaid programs. Many did so in 2014, and there has been great interest in understanding the effects of these expansions on access to health care, health care utilization, and population health. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longer-term (three-year) impact of Medicaid expansions on insurance coverage, access to care, preventive care, self-assessed health, and risky health behaviors. DESIGN: A difference-in-differences model, exploiting variation across states and over time in Medicaid expansion, was estimated using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2010–2016. PARTICIPANTS: Low-income childless adults aged 19–64 years in the BRFSS. MAIN MEASURES: Outcomes included insurance coverage, access to care, several forms of preventive care (e.g., routine checkups, flu shots, HIV tests, dental visits, and cancer screening), risky health behaviors (e.g., smoking, alcohol abuse, obesity), and self-assessed health. KEY RESULTS: The previously documented benefits of Medicaid expansions on insurance coverage, access to care, preventive care, and self-assessed health have persisted 3 years after expansion. There was no detectable effect on risky health behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: The Affordable Care Act was motivated in part by a desire to increase health insurance coverage, improve access to care, and increase use of preventive care. The Medicaid expansions facilitated by the ACA are helping to achieve those objectives, and the benefits have persisted 3 years after expansion.

In the last decade, health care reform has dominated U.S. public policy and political discourse. Double-digit rate increases in premiums in the Health Insurance Marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2018 make this an ongoing issue that could affect future elections. A seminal event that changed the course of policy and politics around health care reform is the 2016 presidential election. The results of the 2016 presidential election departed considerably from polling forecasts. Given the prominence of the Affordable Care Act in the election, we test whether changes in health insurance coverage at the county-level correlate with changes in party vote share in the presidential elections from 2008 through 2016. We find that a one-percentage-point increase in county health insurance coverage was associated with a 0.25-percentage-point increase in the vote share for the Democratic presidential candidate. We further find that these gains on the part of the Democratic candidate came almost fully at the expense of the Republican (as opposed to third-party) presidential candidates. We also estimate models separately for states that did and did not expand Medicaid and find no differential effect of insurance gains on Democratic vote share for states that expanded Medicaid compared to those that did not. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that outcomes in health insurance markets played a role in the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. The decisions made by the current administration, and how those decisions affect health insurance coverage and costs, may be important factors in future elections as well.

The U.S. population receives suboptimal levels of preventive care and has a high prevalence of risky health behaviors. One goal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was to increase preventive care and improve health behaviors by expanding access to health insurance. This paper estimates how the ACA-facilitated state-level expansions of Medicaid in 2014 affected these outcomes. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and a difference-in-differences model that compares states that did and did not expand Medicaid, we examine the impact of the expansions on preventive care (e.g., dental visits, immunizations, mammograms, cancer screenings), risky health behaviors (e.g., smoking, heavy drinking, lack of exercise, obesity), and self-assessed health. We find that the expansions increased insurance coverage and access to care among the targeted population of low-income childless adults. The expansions also increased use of certain forms of preventive care, but there is no evidence that they increased ex ante moral hazard (i.e., there is no evidence that risky health behaviors increased in response to health insurance coverage). The Medicaid expansions also modestly improved self-assessed health.

To analyze the differential rural-urban impacts of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on low-income childless adults' health insurance coverage.Using data from the American Community Survey years 2011-2015, we conducted a difference-in-differences regression analysis to test for changes in the probability of low-income childless adults having insurance in states that expanded Medicaid versus states that did not expand, in rural versus urban areas. Analyses employed survey weights, adjusted for covariates, and included a set of falsification tests as well as sensitivity analyses.Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act increased the probability of Medicaid coverage for targeted populations in rural and urban areas, with a significantly greater increase in rural areas (P.05), but some of these gains were offset by reductions in individual purchased insurance among rural populations (P.01). Falsification tests showed that the insurance increases were specific to low-income childless adults, as expected, and were largely insignificant for other populations.The Medicaid expansion increased the probability of having "any insurance" for the pooled urban and rural low-income populations, and it specifically increased Medicaid coverage more in rural versus urban populations. There was some evidence that the expansion was accompanied by some shifting from individual purchased insurance to Medicaid in rural areas, and there is a need for future work to understand the implications of this shift on expenditures, access to care and utilization.

This analysis uses SEER Medicaid data to quantify changes in health insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act among nonelderly patients newly diagnosed with cancer.