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Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 activity has intensified globally since 2021, increasingly causing mass mortality in wild birds and poultry and incidental infections in mammals 1-3 . However, the ecological and virological properties that underscore future mitigation strategies still remain unclear. Using epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches, we demonstrate changes in the origins of resurgent HPAI H5 and reveal significant shifts in virus ecology and evolution. Outbreak data show key resurgent events in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, contributing to the emergence and panzootic spread of H5N1 in 2021-2022. Genomic analysis reveals that the 2016-2017 epizootics originated in Asia, where HPAI H5 reservoirs are endemic. In 2020-2021, 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses emerged in African poultry, featuring mutations altering HA structure and receptor binding. In 2021-2022, a new H5N1 virus evolved through reassortment in wild birds in Europe, undergoing further reassortment with low-pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic birds during global dissemination. These results highlight a shift in the HPAI H5 epicentre beyond Asia and indicate that increasing persistence of HPAI H5 in wild birds is facilitating geographic and host range expansion, accelerating dispersion velocity and increasing reassortment potential. As earlier outbreaks of H5N1 and H5N8 were caused by more stable genomic constellations, these recent changes reflect adaptation across the domestic-bird-wild-bird interface. Elimination strategies in domestic birds therefore remain a high priority to limit future epizootics., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Among the diverse clades of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses of the goose/Guangdong lineage, only a few have been able to spread across continents: clade 2.2 viruses spread from China to Europe and into Africa in 2005-2006, clade 2.3.2.1 viruses spread from China to Eastern Europe in 2009-2010 and clade 2.3.4.4 viruses of the H5Nx subtype spread from China to Europe and North America in 2014/2015. While the poultry trade and wild-bird migration have been implicated in the spread of HPAI H5N1 viruses, it has been proposed that robust virus-shedding by wild ducks in the absence of overt clinical signs may have contributed to the wider dissemination of the clade 2.2, 2.3.2.1 and 2.3.4.4 viruses. Here we determined the phenotype of two divergent viruses from clade 2.3.2.1, a clade that spread widely, and two divergent viruses from clade 2.3.4, a clade that was constrained to Southeast Asia, in young (ducklings) and adult (juvenile) mallard ducks. We found that the virus-shedding magnitude and duration, transmission pattern and pathogenicity of the viruses in young and adult mallard ducks were largely independent of the virus clade. A clade-specific pattern could only be detected in terms of cumulative virus shedding, which was higher with clade 2.3.2.1 than with clade 2.3.4 viruses in juvenile mallards, but not in ducklings. The ability of clade 2.3.2.1c A/common buzzard/Bulgaria/38 WB/2010-like viruses to spread cross-continentally may, therefore, have been strain-specific or independent of phenotype in wild ducks.

Influenza A viruses exist within their natural host, aquatic birds, in a number of antigenic subtypes. Only a few of these subtypes have successfully crossed into other avian and mammalian hosts. This brief review will focus on just three examples of viruses that have successfully passed between species; avian H5NI1 and H9N2 viruses and H3N2 viruses which have transmitted from aquatic birds to humans and then to swine. Although there are a number of other subtypes that have also transmitted successfully between species, these three selected examples have spread and evolved in different ways, exemplifying the complexity of influenza A virus epidemiology.

In Africa, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus was first detected in northern Nigeria and later also in other regions of the country. Since then, seven other African countries have reported H5N1 infections. This study reports a comparison of full-length genomic sequences of H5N1 isolates from seven chicken farms in Nigeria and chicken and hooded vultures in Burkina Faso with earlier H5N1 outbreaks worldwide. In addition, the antigenicity of Nigerian H5N1 isolates was compared with earlier strains. All African strains clustered within three sublineages denominated A (south-west Nigeria, Niger), B (south-west Nigeria, Egypt, Djibouti) and C (northern Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Côte d'Ivoire), with distinct nucleotide and amino acid signatures and distinct geographical distributions within Africa. Probable non-African ancestors within the west Asian/Russian/European lineage distinct from the south-east Asian lineages were identified for each sublineage. All reported human cases in Africa were caused by sublineage B. Substitution rates were calculated on the basis of sequences from 11 strains from a single farm in south-west Nigeria. As H5N1 emerged essentially at the same time in the north and south-west of Nigeria, the substitution rates confirmed that the virus probably did not spread from the north to the south, given the observed sequence diversity, but that it entered the country via three independent introductions. The strains from Burkina Faso seemed to originate from northern Nigeria. At least two of the sublineages also circulated in Europe in 2006 as seen in Germany, further suggesting that the sublineages had already emerged outside of Africa and seemed to have followed the east African/west Asian and Black Sea/Mediterranean flyways of migratory birds.

As the avian influenza virus H5N1 swept from Asia across Russia to Europe, Nigeria was the first country in Africa to report the emergence of this highly pathogenic virus. Here we analyse H5N1 sequences in poultry from two different farms in Lagos state and find that three H5N1 lineages were independently introduced through routes that coincide with the flight paths of migratory birds, although independent trade imports cannot be excluded.