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Background: In the 2016/2017 influenza season, England was in its fourth season of the roll‐out of a live‐attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) targeted at healthy children aged two to less than 17 years. For the first time, all healthy children aged 2 to 8 years were offered LAIV at national level in 2016/2017. Since the commencement of the programme in 2013/2014, a series of geographically discrete pilot areas have been in place where quadrivalent LAIV was also offered to all school age children. In 2016/2017, these were children aged 8 to 11 years, other than those targeted by the national programme. Methods: We evaluated the overall and indirect impact of vaccinating primary school age children, on the population of England, by measuring vaccine uptake levels and comparing cumulative disease incidence through various influenza surveillance schemes, in targeted and non‐targeted age groups in pilot and non‐pilot areas in 2016/2017. Results: Our findings indicate that cumulative primary care influenza‐like consultations, primary and secondary care swab positivity, influenza confirmed hospitalisations and emergency department attendances in pilot areas were overall lower than those observed in non‐pilot areas; however, significant differences were not always observed in both targeted and non‐targeted age groups. Excess mortality was higher in pilot areas compared with non‐pilot areas. Conclusions: These results are similar to earlier seasons of the programme indicating the importance and continuing support of vaccinating all primary school children with LAIV to reduce influenza related illness across the population, although further work is needed to understand the differences in excess mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Established surveillance systems can follow trends in community disease and illness over many years. However, within England there are known regional differences in healthcare utilisation, which can affect interpretation of trends. Here, we explore regional differences for a range of respiratory conditions using general practitioner (GP) consultation data. Methods Daily data for respiratory conditions were extracted from a national GP surveillance system. Average daily GP consultation rates per 100 000 registered patient population were calculated by each region of England and for each study year (2013–17). Consultation rates and incidence rate ratios were also calculated for each condition by deprivation quintile and by rural, urban, and conurbation groups. Results Upper and lower respiratory tract infections and asthma were higher in the North and the Midlands than in London and the South, were highest in the most deprived groups and tended to be higher in more urban areas. Influenza-like illness was highest in the least deprived and rural areas. Conclusions There are consistent differences in GP consultation rates across the English regions. This work has improved our understanding and interpretation of GP surveillance data at regional level and will guide more accurate public health messages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Public Health England have developed a suite of real-time statistical models utilising enhanced pandemic surveillance data to nowcast and forecast a future pandemic. Their ability to track seasonal influenza and predict heightened winter healthcare burden in the light of high activity in Australia in 2017 was untested.Methods: Four transmission models were used in forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England: a stratified primary care model using daily, region-specific, counts and virological swab positivity of influenza-like illness consultations in general practice (GP); a strain-specific (SS) model using weekly, national GP ILI and virological data; an intensive care model (ICU) using reports of ICU influenza admissions; and a synthesis model that included all data sources. For the first 12 weeks of 2018, each model was applied to the latest data to provide estimates of epidemic parameters and short-term influenza forecasts. The added value of pre-season population susceptibility data was explored.Results: The combined results provided valuable nowcasts of the state of the epidemic. Short-term predictions of burden on primary and secondary health services were initially highly variable before reaching consensus beyond the observed peaks in activity between weeks 3-4 of 2018. Estimates for R0 were consistent over time for three of the four models until week 12 of 2018, and there was consistency in the estimation of R0 across the SPC and SS models, and in the ICU attack rates estimated by the ICU and the synthesis model. Estimation and predictions varied according to the assumed levels of pre-season immunity.Conclusions: This exercise successfully applied a range of pandemic models to seasonal influenza. Forecasting early in the season remains challenging but represents a crucially important activity to inform planning. Improved knowledge of pre-existing levels of immunity would be valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During winter 2014-15, England experienced severe strains on acute health services. We investigated whether syndromic surveillance could contribute to understanding of the unusually high level of healthcare needs. We compared trends for several respiratory syndromic indicators from that winter to historical baselines. Cumulative and mean incidence rates were compared by winter and age group. All-age influenza-like illness was at expected levels; however, severe asthma and pneumonia levels were above those expected. Across several respiratory indicators, cumulative incidence rates during 2014-15 were similar to those of previous years, but higher for older persons; we saw increased rates of acute respiratory disease, including influenza like illness, severe asthma, and pneumonia, in the 65-74- and >75-year age groups. Age group-specific statistical algorithms may provide insights into the burden on health services and improve early warning in future winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early warning and robust estimation of influenza burden are critical to inform hospital preparedness and operational, treatment, and vaccination policies. Methods to enhance influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance are regularly reviewed. We investigated the use of hospital staff 'influenza-like absences' (hospital staff-ILA), i.e. absence attributed to colds and influenza, to improve capture of influenza dynamics and provide resilience for hospitals. Methods: Numbers and rates of hospital staff-ILA were compared to regional surveillance data on ILI primary-care presentations (15-64 years) and to counts of laboratory confirmed cases among hospitalised patients from April 2008 to April 2013 inclusive. Analyses were used to determine comparability of the ILI and hospital-ILA and how systems compared in early warning and estimating the burden of disease. Results: Among 20,021 reported hospital-ILA and 4661 community ILI cases, correlations in counts were high and consistency in illness measurements was observed. In time series analyses, both hospital-ILA and ILI showed similar timing of the seasonal component. Hospital-ILA data often commenced and peaked earlier than ILI according to a Bayesian prospective alarm algorithm. Hospital-ILA rates were more comparable to model-based estimates of 'true' influenza burden than ILI. Conclusions: Hospital-ILA appears to have the potential to be a robust, yet simple syndromic surveillance method that could be used to enhance estimates of disease burden and early warning, and assist with local hospital preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To perform antiviral susceptibility monitoring of treated individuals in the community during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in England. Patients and methods Between 200 and 400 patients were enrolled daily through the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) and issued with a self-sampling kit. Initially, only persons aged 16 and over were eligible, but from 12 November (week 45), self-sampling was extended to include school-age children (5 years and older). All samples received were screened for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 as well as seasonal influenza [A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and influenza B] by a combination of RT–PCR and virus isolation methods. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 RT–PCR-positive samples were screened for the oseltamivir resistance-inducing H275Y substitution, and a subset of samples also underwent phenotypic antiviral susceptibility testing by enzyme inhibition assay. Results We were able to detect virus by RT–PCR in self-taken samples and recovered infectious virus enabling further virological characterization. The majority of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 RT–PCR-positive NPFS samples (n = 1273) were taken after oseltamivir treatment had begun. No reduction in phenotypic susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors was detected, but five cases with minority quasi-species of oseltamivir-resistant virus (an H275Y amino acid substitution in neuraminidase) were detected. Conclusions Self-sampling is a useful tool for community surveillance, particularly for the follow-up of drug-treated patients. The virological study of self-taken samples from the NPFS provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the emergence of oseltamivir resistance in treated individuals with mild illness in the community, a target population that may not be captured by traditional sentinel surveillance schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the northern hemisphere winter of 2003-04 antigenic variant strains (A/Fujian/411/02 -like) of influenza A H3N2 emerged. Circulation of these strains in the UK was accompanied by an unusually high number of laboratory confirmed influenza associated fatalities in children. This study was carried out to better understand risk factors associated with fatal cases of influenza in children. Methodology/Principal Findings: Case histories, autopsy reports and death registration certificates for seventeen fatal cases of laboratory confirmed influenza in children were analyzed. None had a recognized pre-existing risk factor for severe influenza and none had been vaccinated. Three cases had evidence of significant bacterial co-infection. Influenza strains recovered from fatal cases were antigenically similar to those circulating in the community. A comparison of protective antibody titres in age stratified cohort sera taken before and after winter 2003-04 showed that young children had the highest attack rate during this season (21% difference, 95% confidence interval from 0.09 to 0.33, p = 0.0009). Clinical incidences of influenza-like illness (ILI) in young age groups were shown to be highest only in the years when novel antigenic drift variants emerged. Conclusions/Significance: This work presents a rare insight into fatal influenza H3N2 in healthy children. It confirms that circulating seasonal influenza A H3N2 strains can cause severe disease and death in children in the apparent absence of associated bacterial infection or predisposing risk factors. This adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the burden of severe illness due to seasonal influenza A in childhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Respiratory infections are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide: influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant pathogens responsible. Annual vaccination and the use of antiviral drugs provides both protection and treatment against influenza, particularly protecting those patients most at risk, including the elderly and individuals with chronic comorbidities. Currently, there are extremely limited options in the protection against RSV infection, making those at-risk patients vulnerable to serious disease, complications and death. This review focuses on recent trends in respiratory illness in the elderly, particularly focusing on the burden of influenza and RSV on hospitalizations and mortality. We discuss the potential benefit of influenza vaccination on these outcomes, including the recent controversial debate over the effectiveness of influenza vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Spanish influenza pandemic swept the globe in the autumn and winter of 1918-19, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 40 million people. Clinically, epidemiologically, and pathologically, the disease was remarkably uniform, which suggests that similar viruses were causing disease around the world. To assess the homogeneity of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, partial hemagglutinin gene sequences have been determined for five cases, including two newly identified samples from London, United Kingdom. The strains show 98.9% to 99.8% nucleotide sequence identity. One of the few differences between the strains maps to the receptor-binding site of hemagglutinin, suggesting that two receptor-binding configurations were co-circulating during the pandemic. The results suggest that in the early stages of an influenza A pandemic, mutations that occur during replication do not become fixed so that a uniform "consensus" strain circulates for some time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Oxford–Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE) are commencing their 54th season of collaboration at a time when SARS-CoV-2 infections are likely to be cocirculating with the usual winter infections. Objective: The aim of this study is to conduct surveillance of influenza and other monitored respiratory conditions and to report on vaccine uptake and effectiveness using nationally representative surveillance data extracted from primary care computerized medical records systems. We also aim to have general practices collect virology and serology specimens and to participate in trials and other interventional research. Methods: The RCGP RSC network comprises over 1700 general practices in England and Wales. We will extract pseudonymized data twice weekly and are migrating to a system of daily extracts. First, we will collect pseudonymized, routine, coded clinical data for the surveillance of monitored and unexpected conditions; data on vaccine exposure and adverse events of interest; and data on approved research study outcomes. Second, we will provide dashboards to give general practices feedback about levels of care and data quality, as compared to other network practices. We will focus on collecting data on influenza-like illness, upper and lower respiratory tract infections, and suspected COVID-19. Third, approximately 300 practices will participate in the 2020-2021 virology and serology surveillance; this will include responsive surveillance and long-term follow-up of previous SARS-CoV-2 infections. Fourth, member practices will be able to recruit volunteer patients to trials, including early interventions to improve COVID-19 outcomes and point-of-care testing. Lastly, the legal basis for our surveillance with PHE is Regulation 3 of the Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002; other studies require appropriate ethical approval. Results: The RCGP RSC network has tripled in size; there were previously 100 virology practices and 500 practices overall in the network and we now have 322 and 1724, respectively. The Oxford–RCGP Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) secure networks enable the daily analysis of the extended network; currently, 1076 practices are uploaded. We are implementing a central swab distribution system for patients self-swabbing at home in addition to in-practice sampling. We have converted all our primary care coding to Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) coding. Throughout spring and summer 2020, the network has continued to collect specimens in preparation for the winter or for any second wave of COVID-19 cases. We have collected 5404 swabs and detected 623 cases of COVID-19 through extended virological sampling, and 19,341 samples have been collected for serology. This shows our preparedness for the winter season. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a groundswell of general practices joining our network. It has also created a permissive environment in which we have developed the capacity and capability of the national primary care surveillance systems and our unique public health institute, the RCGP and University of Oxford collaboration. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021;7(2):e24341 doi:10.2196/24341 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reflects on supported by the Department of Health (DH) of Great Britain towards the Royal College of General Practitioners' (RCGP) programme of influenza and respiratory disease surveillance.

The article discusses a study which investigated the emergence of community transmission of influenza A/H1N1 in England based on results from self sampling of NHS Direct callers with influenza-like illness. People in six Strategic Health Authorities with cold of flu symptoms or both were involved in the study, who called the NHS Direct multi-channel health advice and information service. It was found that a reliable indication of local community transmission was provided by Testing in Health Protection Agency regional laboratories.

Abstract: Despite intensive research, influenza viruses still present one of the major causes of respiratory disease throughout the world. The elderly population and those individuals considered “at risk” due to presenting co-morbidity are especially vulnerable to influenza infection; this is evident from increased rates of morbidity and mortality in these populations during winter epidemic periods. Successful vaccination campaigns have targeted these groups over the last few years, providing protection to an increasing number of susceptible individuals. However, during periods of influenza virus activity there are still seasonal pressures put on both primary and secondary health care services. In the event of a serious influenza epidemic or pandemic, these burdens could jeopardise health care provision to at risk populations. In this report we discuss current issues surrounding the impact of influenza on the health care utilisation of elderly people. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]