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Airborne transmission in ferrets is a key component of pandemic risk assessment. However, some emerging avian influenza viruses transmit between ferrets but do not spread in humans. Therefore, we evaluated sequential rounds of airborne transmission as an approach to enhance the predictive accuracy of the ferret model. We reasoned that infection of ferrets via the respiratory route and onward transmission would more closely model transmission in humans. We hypothesized that pandemic and seasonal viruses would transmit efficiently over two rounds of transmission, while emerging avian viruses would fail to transmit in a second round. The 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pdm09) and seasonal H3N2 viruses were compared to avian-origin H7N9 and H3N8 viruses. Depending on the virus strain, transmission efficiency varied from 50 to 100% during the first round of transmission; the efficiency for each virus did not change during the second round, and viral replication kinetics in both rounds of transmission were similar. Both the H1N1pdm09 and H7N9 viruses acquired specific mutations during sequential transmission, while the H3N2 and H3N8 viruses did not; however, a global analysis of host-adaptive mutations revealed that minimal changes were associated with transmission of H1N1 and H3N2 viruses, while a greater number of changes occurred in the avian H3N8 and H7N9 viruses. Thus, influenza viruses that transmit in ferrets maintain their transmission efficiency through serial rounds of transmission. This answers the question of whether ferrets can propagate viruses through more than one round of airborne transmission and emphasizes that transmission in ferrets is necessary but not sufficient to infer transmissibility in humans. IMPORTANCE Airborne transmission in ferrets is used to gauge the pandemic potential of emerging influenza viruses; however, some emerging influenza viruses that transmit between ferrets do not spread between humans. Therefore, we evaluated sequential rounds of airborne transmission in ferrets as a strategy to enhance the predictive accuracy of the ferret model. Human influenza viruses transmitted efficiently (>83%) over two rounds of airborne transmission, demonstrating that, like humans, ferrets infected by the respiratory route can propagate the infection onward through the air. However, emerging avian influenza viruses with associated host-adaptive mutations also transmitted through sequential transmission. Thus, airborne transmission in ferrets is necessary but not sufficient to infer transmissibility in humans, and sequential transmission did not enhance pandemic risk assessment.

Being able to link clinical outcomes to SARS-CoV-2 virus strains is a critical component of understanding COVID-19. Here, we discuss how current processes hamper sustainable data collection to enable meaningful analysis and insights. Following the 'Fast Healthcare Interoperable Resource' (FHIR) implementation guide, we introduce an ontology-based standard questionnaire to overcome these shortcomings and describe patient 'journeys' in coordination with the World Health Organization's recommendations. We identify steps in the clinical health data acquisition cycle and workflows that likely have the biggest impact in the data-driven understanding of this virus. Specifically, we recommend detailed symptoms and medical history using the FHIR standards. We have taken the first steps towards this by making patient status mandatory in GISAID ('Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data'), immediately resulting in a measurable increase in the fraction of cases with useful patient information. The main remaining limitation is the lack of controlled vocabulary or a medical ontology., (© 2020 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

BackgroundInterseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks.AimOur objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks.MethodsThis observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research.ResultsThere was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen.ConclusionsThe unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

The high genetic variability of influenza A viruses poses a continual challenge to seasonal and pandemic vaccine development, leaving antiviral drugs as the first line of defense against antigenically different strains or new subtypes. As resistance against drugs targeting viral proteins emerges rapidly, we assessed the antiviral activity of already approved drugs that target cellular proteins involved in the viral life cycle and were orally bioavailable. Out of 15 candidate compounds, four were able to inhibit infection by 10- to 100-fold without causing toxicity, in vitro . Two of the drugs, dextromethorphan and ketotifen, displayed a 50% effective dose between 5 and 50 μM, not only for the classic H1N1 PR8 strain, but also for a pandemic H1N1 and a seasonal H3N2 strain. Efficacy assessment in mice revealed that dextromethorphan consistently resulted in a significant reduction of viral lung titers and also enhanced the efficacy of oseltamivir. Dextromethorphan treatment of ferrets infected with a pandemic H1N1 strain led to a reduction in clinical disease severity, but no effect on viral titer was observed. In addition to identifying dextromethorphan as a potential influenza treatment option, our study illustrates the feasibility of a bioinformatics-driven rational approach for repurposing approved drugs against infectious diseases.

Seasonal influenza viruses are subjected to strong selection as seen by the sequential replacement of existing viral populations on the emergence of new antigenic variants. However, the process of within-host de novo mutant generation and evolutionary selection that underlies these antigenic sweeps is poorly understood. Here, we investigate mutational patterns between evolutionarily closely related human seasonal influenza viruses using host age as a proxy for immune experience. The systematic analysis of >25,000 virus sequences showed that individuals with substantially differing immune histories were frequently (30-62%) infected by viruses with identical amino acid sequences. Viruses from immunologically inexperienced individuals were as likely to possess substitutions with potential phenotypic relevance as highly experienced individuals. Mutations likely to cause antigenic changes were rare among closely related viruses and not associated with extent of host immune experience. These findings suggest that individual immune positive selection plays a limited role in the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses.

Background: Elderly adults over 65 years of age are recommended to receive seasonal influenza vaccination as they are at a higher risk of infection and its complications than the younger community. The elderly are often stratified according to frailty status where frail individuals are more susceptible to adverse health outcomes than their non-frail counterparts, however, it is not known whether immunity induced by influenza vaccination is impaired in the frail elderly. Study Design: Two hundred and five elderly subjects of Chinese ethnicity in Singapore (mean age 73.3 ± 5.3 years, 128 females and 77 males) were administered the recommended trivalent inactivated 2013-14 seasonal influenza vaccine (Vaxigrip™) containing A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B strains. The elderly subjects were stratified into three groups according to Fried's frailty criteria (59 frail, 85 pre-frail, 61 robust) and were also ranked by Rockwood's frailty index (RFI). Statistical associations were evaluated between frailty status and pre- and post-vaccination antibody titres in sera measured by Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and microneutralization (MN) assays. Immunological responses across frailty strata were also studied in terms of leukocyte cellular distribution, cytokine levels and gene expression. Results : Post-vaccination, 83.4% of the subjects seroconverted for A/H1N1, 80.5% for A/H3N2, and 81% for the B strain. The seroconversion rates were comparable across frailty groups (A/H1N1, ANOVA, p = 0.7910; A/H3N2, ANOVA, p = 0.8356, B, ANOVA, p = 0.9741). Geometric mean titres of HAI and MN as well as seroprotection rates were also similar in all three frailty groups and uncorrelated with RFI (Spearman, r = 0.023, p = 0.738). No statistically significant differences were observed between the frailty groups in vaccine-induced modulation of leukocyte populations, cytokine responses, and gene expression profiles of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Whereas, post- and pre-vaccination HAI titres were positively correlated after adjusting for age and gender (A/H1N1, R 2 = 0.216, p = 9.1e-11; A/H3N2, R 2 = 0.166, p = 3.4e-8; B, R 2 = 0.104, p = 3.1e-5). With most subjects lacking previous history of influenza vaccination, the pre-vaccination titres were likely due to natural exposure and seen to match the pattern of influenza subtype prevalence in the time period of vaccination. Conclusion : The majority of the elderly subjects seroconverted for seasonal influenza upon vaccination, and importantly, influenza vaccination-induced humoral immune responses and seroprotection were similar across the frailty strata, indicating that frail individuals may also benefit from influenza vaccination. Pre-existing antibodies due to natural exposure appeared to positively influence vaccine-induced antibody responses.

A total of 13672 viruses, collected by World Health Organization recognised National Influenza Centres between May 2016 and May 2017, were assessed for neuraminidase inhibitor susceptibility by four WHO Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza and one WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance Epidemiology and Control of Influenza. The 50% inhibitory concentration (IC 50 ) was determined for oseltamivir and zanamivir for all viruses, and for peramivir and laninamivir in a subset (n = 8457). Of the viruses tested, 94% were obtained from the Western Pacific, Americas and European WHO regions, while limited viruses were available from the Eastern Mediterranean, African and South East Asian regions. Reduced inhibition (RI) by one or more neuraminidase inhibitor was exhibited by 0.2% of viruses tested (n = 32). The frequency of viruses with RI has remained low since this global analysis began (2015/16: 0.8%, 2014/15: 0.5%; 2013/14: 1.9%; 2012/13: 0.6%) but 2016/17 has the lowest frequency observed to date. Analysis of 13581 neuraminidase sequences retrieved from public databases, of which 5243 sequences were from viruses not included in the phenotypic analyses, identified 58 further viruses (29 without phenotypic analyses) with amino acid substitutions associated with RI by at least one neuraminidase inhibitor. Bringing the total proportion to 0.5% (90/18915). This 2016/17 analysis demonstrates that neuraminidase inhibitors remain suitable for treatment and prophylaxis of influenza virus infections, but continued monitoring is important. An expansion of surveillance testing is paramount since several novel influenza antivirals are in late stage clinical trials with some resistance already having been identified., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Since the emergence of the pandemic H1N1pdm09 virus in Mexico and California, biannual increases in the number of cases have been detected in Mexico. As observed in previous seasons, pandemic A/H1N1 09 virus was detected in severe cases during the 2011-2012 winter season and finally, during the 2013-2014 winter season it became the most prevalent influenza virus. Molecular and phylogenetic analyses of the whole viral genome are necessary to determine the antigenic and pathogenic characteristics of influenza viruses that cause severe outcomes of the disease. In this paper, we analyzed the evolution, antigenic and genetic drift of Mexican isolates from 2009, at the beginning of the pandemic, to 2014. We found a clear variation of the virus in Mexico from the 2011-2014 season due to different markers and in accordance with previous reports. In this study, we identified 13 novel substitutions with important biological effects, including virulence, T cell epitope presented by MHC and host specificity shift and some others substitutions might have more than one biological function. The systematic monitoring of mutations on whole genome of influenza A pH1N1 (2009) virus circulating at INER in Mexico City might provide valuable information to predict the emergence of new pathogenic influenza virus.

The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk., Competing Interests: ML: Reports the following financial disclosures for topics unrelated to this manuscript: consulting income from Pfizer and Affinivax (both donated to charity) and research funding from Pfizer and PATH Vaccine Solutions. These entities had no role in the preparation of this work or in the decision to submit the work for publication. Reviewing editor for eLife. CAR: During the prepartion of this manuscript, CAAB received funding through a research contract with AstraZeneca Inc., but for distinct, unrelated research. AstraZeneca Inc. had no role in the preparation of this work or in the decision to submit the work for publication. The other authors declare that no competing interests exist.

In this study we compared the NS1 protein of Influenza B/Lee/40 and several non-cultured Influenza B virus clinical strains detected in Singapore. In B/Lee/40 virus-infected cells and in cells expressing the recombinant B/Lee/40 NS1 protein a full-length 35 kDa NS1 protein and a 23 kDa NS1 protein species (p23) were detected. Mutational analysis of the NS1 gene indicated that p23 was generated by a novel cleavage event within the linker domain between an aspartic acid and proline at amino acid residues at positions 92 and 93 respectively (DP 92-93 ), and that p23 contained the first 92 amino acids of the NS1 protein. Sequence analysis of the Singapore strains indicated the presence of either DP 92-93 or NP 92-93 in the NS1 protein, but protein expression analysis showed that p23 was only detected in NS1 proteins with DP 92-93. . An additional adjacent proline residue at position 94 (P 94 ) was present in some strains and correlated with increased p23 levels, suggesting that P 94 has a synergistic effect on the cleavage of the NS1 protein. The first 145 amino acids of the NS1 protein are required for inhibition of ISG15-mediated ubiquitination, and our analysis showed that Influenza B viruses circulating in Singapore with DP 92-93 expressed truncated NS1 proteins and may differ in their capacity to inhibit ISG15 activity. Thus, DP 92-93 in the NS1 protein may confer a disadvantage to Influenza B viruses circulating in the human population and interestingly the low frequency of DP 92-93 detection in the NS1 protein since 2004 is consistent with this suggestion.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza (WHO CCs) tested 13,312 viruses collected by WHO recognized National Influenza Centres between May 2014 and May 2015 to determine 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) data for neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir, zanamivir, peramivir and laninamivir. Ninety-four per cent of the viruses tested by the WHO CCs were from three WHO regions: Western Pacific, the Americas and Europe. Approximately 0.5% (n = 68) of viruses showed either highly reduced inhibition (HRI) or reduced inhibition (RI) (n = 56) against at least one of the four NAIs. Of the twelve viruses with HRI, six were A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, three were A(H3N2) viruses and three were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. The overall frequency of viruses with RI or HRI by the NAIs was lower than that observed in 2013-14 (1.9%), but similar to the 2012-13 period (0.6%). Based on the current analysis, the NAIs remain an appropriate choice for the treatment and prophylaxis of influenza virus infections., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The multiple circulating human influenza A virus subtypes coupled with the perpetual genomic mutations and segment reassortment events challenge the development of effective therapeutics. The capacity to drug most RNAs motivates the investigation on viral RNA targets. 123,060 segment sequences from 35,938 strains of the most prevalent subtypes also infecting humans-H1N1, 2009 pandemic H1N1, H3N2, H5N1 and H7N9, were used to identify 1,183 conserved RNA target sequences (≥15-mer) in the internal segments. 100% theoretical coverage in simultaneous heterosubtypic targeting is achieved by pairing specific sequences from the same segment ("Duals") or from two segments ("Doubles"); 1,662 Duals and 28,463 Doubles identified. By combining specific Duals and/or Doubles to form a target graph wherein an edge connecting two vertices (target sequences) represents a Dual or Double, it is possible to hedge against antiviral resistance besides maintaining 100% heterosubtypic coverage. To evaluate the hedging potential, we define the hedge-factor as the minimum number of resistant target sequences that will render the graph to become resistant i.e. eliminate all the edges therein; a target sequence or a graph is considered resistant when it cannot achieve 100% heterosubtypic coverage. In an n-vertices graph (n ≥ 3), the hedge-factor is maximal (= n- 1) when it is a complete graph i.e. every distinct pair in a graph is either a Dual or Double. Computational analyses uncover an extensive number of complete graphs of different sizes. Monte Carlo simulations show that the mutation counts and time elapsed for a target graph to become resistant increase with the hedge-factor. Incidentally, target sequences which were reported to reduce virus titre in experiments are included in our target graphs. The identity of target sequence pairs for heterosubtypic targeting and their combinations for hedging antiviral resistance are useful toolkits to construct target graphs for different therapeutic objectives.

The 1957 A/H2N2 influenza virus caused an estimated 2 million fatalities during the pandemic. Since viruses of the H2 subtype continue to infect avian species and pigs, the threat of reintroduction into humans remains. To determine factors involved in the zoonotic origin of the 1957 pandemic, we performed analyses on genetic sequences of 175 newly sequenced human and avian H2N2 virus isolates and all publicly available influenza virus genomes., (Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.)

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

Background: Vision-based surveillance and monitoring is a potential alternative for early detection of respiratory disease outbreaks in urban areas complementing molecular diagnostics and hospital and doctor visit-based alert systems. Visible actions representing typical flu-like symptoms include sneeze and cough that are associated with changing patterns of hand to head distances, among others. The technical difficulties lie in the high complexity and large variation of those actions as well as numerous similar background actions such as scratching head, cell phone use, eating, drinking and so on., Results: In this paper, we make a first attempt at the challenging problem of recognizing flu-like symptoms from videos. Since there was no related dataset available, we created a new public health dataset for action recognition that includes two major flu-like symptom related actions (sneeze and cough) and a number of background actions. We also developed a suitable novel algorithm by introducing two types of Action Matching Kernels, where both types aim to integrate two aspects of local features, namely the space-time layout and the Bag-of-Words representations. In particular, we show that the Pyramid Match Kernel and Spatial Pyramid Matching are both special cases of our proposed kernels. Besides experimenting on standard testbed, the proposed algorithm is evaluated also on the new sneeze and cough set. Empirically, we observe that our approach achieves competitive performance compared to the state-of-the-arts, while recognition on the new public health dataset is shown to be a non-trivial task even with simple single person unobstructed view., Conclusions: Our sneeze and cough video dataset and newly developed action recognition algorithm is the first of its kind and aims to kick-start the field of action recognition of flu-like symptoms from videos. It will be challenging but necessary in future developments to consider more complex real-life scenario of detecting these actions simultaneously from multiple persons in possibly crowded environments.

Methods: A novel, fully bacterially produced recombinant virus-like particle (VLP) based influenza vaccine (gH1-Qbeta) against A/California/07/2009(H1N1) was tested in a double-blind, randomized phase I clinical trial at two clinical sites in Singapore. The trial evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of gH1-Qbeta in the presence or absence of alhydrogel adjuvant. Healthy adult volunteers with no or low pre-existing immunity against A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) were randomized to receive two intramuscular injections 21 days apart, with 100μg vaccine, containing 42μg hemagglutinin antigen. Antibody responses were measured before and 21 days after each immunization by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. The primary endpoint was seroconversion on Day 42, defined as percentage of subjects which reach a HAI titer ≥40 or achieve an at least 4-fold rise in HAI titer (with pre-existing immunity). The co-secondary endpoints were safety and seroconversion on Day 21., Results: A total of 84 Asian volunteers were enrolled in this study and randomized to receive the adjuvanted (n=43) or the non-adjuvanted (n=41) vaccine. Of those, 43 and 37 respectively (95%) completed the study. There were no deaths or serious adverse events reported during this trial. A total of 535 adverse events occurred during treatment with 49.5% local solicited symptoms, of mostly (76.4%) mild severity. The most common treatment-related systemic symptom was fatigue. The non-adjuvanted vaccine met all primary and secondary endpoints and showed seroconversion in 62.2% and 70.3% of participants respectively on Day 21 and Day 42. While the adjuvanted vaccine showed an increased seroconversion from 25.5% (Day 21) to 51.2% (Day 42), it did not meet the immunogenicity endpoint., Conclusion: In summary, non-adjuvanted gH1-Qbeta showed similar antibody mediated immunogenicity and a comparable safety profile in healthy humans to commercially available vaccines. These results warrant the consideration of this VLP vaccine platform for the vaccination against influenza infection (HSA CTC1300092)., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Seasonal influenza A viruses (IAV) originate from pandemic IAV and have undergone changes in antigenic structure, including addition of glycans to the viral hemagglutinin (HA). Glycans on the head of HA promote virus survival by shielding antigenic sites, but highly glycosylated seasonal IAV are inactivated by soluble lectins of the innate immune system. In 2009, human strains of pandemic H1N1 [A(H1N1)pdm] expressed a single glycosylation site (Asn(104)) on the head of HA. Since then, variants with additional glycosylation sites have been detected, and the location of these sites has been distinct to those of recent seasonal H1N1 strains. We have compared wild-type and reverse-engineered A(H1N1)pdm IAV with differing potential glycosylation sites on HA for sensitivity to collectins and to neutralizing Abs. Addition of a glycan (Asn(136)) to A(H1N1)pdm HA was associated with resistance to neutralizing Abs but did not increase sensitivity to collectins. Moreover, variants expressing Asn(136) showed enhanced growth in A(H1N1)pdm-vaccinated mice, consistent with evasion of Ab-mediated immunity in vivo. Thus, a fine balance exists regarding the optimal pattern of HA glycosylation to facilitate evasion of Ab-mediated immunity while maintaining resistance to lectin-mediated defenses of the innate immune system.

Surveillance data indicate that most circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza viruses have remained antigenically similar since they emerged in humans in 2009. However, antigenic drift is likely to occur in the future in response to increasing population immunity induced by infection or vaccination. In this study, sequential passaging of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus by contact transmission through two independent series of suboptimally vaccinated ferrets resulted in selection of variant viruses with an amino acid substitution (N156K, H1 numbering without signal peptide; N159K, H3 numbering without signal peptide; N173K, H1 numbering from first methionine) in a known antigenic site of the viral HA. The N156K HA variant replicated and transmitted efficiently between naïve ferrets and outgrew wildtype virus in vivo in ferrets in the presence and absence of immune pressure. In vitro, in a range of cell culture systems, the N156K variant rapidly adapted, acquiring additional mutations in the viral HA that also potentially affected antigenic properties. The N156K escape mutant was antigenically distinct from wildtype virus as shown by binding of HA-specific antibodies. Glycan binding assays demonstrated the N156K escape mutant had altered receptor binding preferences compared to wildtype virus, which was supported by computational modeling predictions. The N156K substitution, and culture adaptations, have been detected in human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses with N156K preferentially reported in sequences from original clinical samples rather than cultured isolates. This study demonstrates the ability of the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to undergo rapid antigenic change to evade a low level vaccine response, while remaining fit in a ferret transmission model of immunization and infection. Furthermore, the potential changes in receptor binding properties that accompany antigenic changes highlight the importance of routine characterization of clinical samples in human A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza surveillance.

Analysis of mutations I117V and I117M in the neuraminidase of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses showed that I117V confers a mild reduction in oseltamivir sensitivity and has a synergistic effect of further increasing resistance when combined with H275Y. Contrary to recent reports, the I117M mutation does not alter oseltamivir sensitivity.

Background: Antiviral post-exposure prophylaxis with oseltamivir has been used as a strategy in mitigating the Influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic. There have been few reports of well-documented prophylaxis failures and the reasons for failure., Objectives: We report herein a series of 10 cases of prophylaxis failures and explore the reasons behind their prophylaxis failure., Study Design: In the early pandemic phase, the military employed oseltamivir post-exposure ring-prophylaxis of affected units. From June 22 to July 30, 2009, cases of laboratory-confirmed prophylaxis failures were identified. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected and tested by PCR. Samples with sufficient RNA material were sent for whole genome sequencing, and screened for mutations that confer oseltamivir resistance, especially the H275Y mutation., Results: Ten cases of laboratory-confirmed prophylaxis failure were identified, with a mean age of 22.3 years. One case was asymptomatic; the remaining 9 had fever or cough but without severe complications. The mean duration of exposure before starting oseltamivir was 1.9 days (SD 0.9), while the mean duration of oseltamivir consumption before symptom onset was 1.9 days (SD 1.4). None of the samples had the H275Y mutation or other known mutations that confer resistance. From the whole genome sequencing, several mutations at the HA (T220S, E275V, T333A, D239G); PB2 (K660R, L607V, V292I); NS1 (F103S), and NP (W104G) gene segments were detected, but none of them were likely to result in anti-viral resistance., Conclusions: Primary prophylaxis failures exhibited mild symptoms without complications; all did not have the H275Y mutation and were unlikely to result from other mutations., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The recent 2009 (H1N1) influenza A pandemic saw a rapid spread of the virus to essentially all parts of the world. In the course of its evolution, the virus acquired many mutations, some of which have been investigated in the context of increased severity due to high occurrences in fatal cases. For example, statements such as: "42.9% of individuals who died from laboratory-confirmed cases of the pandemic (H1N1) were infected with the hemagglutinin (HA) Q310 H mutant virus." give the impression that HA-Q310 H would be highly dangerous or important, while careful consideration of all available data suggests that this is unlikely to be the case., Results: We compare the mutations HA-Q310 H, PB2-K340N, HA-D239N and HA-D239G using whole genome phylogenetic trees, structural modeling in their 3 D context and complete epidemiological data from sequences to clinical outcomes. HA-Q310 H and PB2-K340N appear as isolated subtrees in the phylogenetic analysis pointing to founder effects which is consistent with their clustered temporal appearance as well as the lack of an immediate structural basis that could explain a change of phenotypes. Considering the prevailing viral genomic background, shared origin of samples (all from the city of Sao Paulo) and narrow temporal window (all death case samples within 1 month), it becomes clear that HA-Q310 H was actually a generally common mutation in the region at that time which could readily explain its increased occurrence among the few analyzed fatal cases without requiring necessarily an association with severity. In further support of this, we highlight 3 mild cases with the HA-Q310 H mutation., Conclusions: We argue that claims of severity of any current and future flu mutation need to be critically considered in the light of phylogenetic, structural and detailed epidemiological data to distinguish increased occurrence due to possible founder effects rather than real phenotypic changes.

An oseltamivir-resistant influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus evolved and emerged from zero to 52% of detectable virus within 48 hours of a patient's exposure to oseltamivir. Phylogenetic analysis and data gathered by pyrosequencing and cloning directly on clinical samples suggest that the mutant emerged de novo.