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Çin'in Wuhan kentinde ortaya çıkarak kısa sürede tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan Covid-19 salgını Dünya Sağlık Örgütü tarafından pandemi olarak ilan edilmiştir. Salgının tüm dünyaya yayılmasından itibaren başta sağlık ve ekonomi olmak üzere hayatın her alanında olumsuz etkilere neden olmuştur. Pandeminin yıkıcı etkilerini en hafif şekilde atlatabilmek amacıyla ülkeler çeşitli tedbirler almak durumunda kalmıştır. Covid-19 pandemisinin hızla yayılması ve küresel etkilere neden olmasından dolayı geçmişte yaşanan salgın hastalıklardan farklılık göstermektedir. Salgının kısıtlayıcı etkileri gündelik hayat ve çalışma hayatı üzerinde olumsuz etkilere neden olmuştur. Ülkelerin birbirlerine olan ticari bağlılıklarının artması nedeniyle salgının ekonomik anlamda etkisi küresel boyut kazanmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Covid-19 pandemisinin Türkiye, Almanya, Fransa, İspanya, İtalya, İngiltere, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Japonya, Kore ve Çin ekonomileri üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Seçili ülkelerin Covid-19 pandemisine karşı almış oldukları sosyal ve ekonomik tedbirler incelenerek pandemi sürecinin nasıl sürdürüldüğü açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada pandeminin makroekonomik değişkenler (kamu finansman dengesi, dış borç, dış ticaret, işgücü piyasası, ekonomik büyüme, finansal kesim ve enflasyon) üzerindeki etkileri seçilmiş ülke örnekleri ile araştırılmıştır. Konu ile ilgili literatürden yararlanılarak yayınlanmış raporlar ve istatistiki veriler yardımıyla mevcut durumun değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Bu kapsamda pandemi sürecinde seçili ülke ekonomilerinin makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde mukayeseli analizine yer verilmektedir., The Covid-19 epidemic, which emerged in Wuhan, China, and affected the whole world in a short time, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Since the epidemic spread all over the world, it has caused negative effects in all areas of life, especially health and economy. In order to overcome the devastating effects of the pandemic in the lightest way, countries have had to take various measures. Unlike past epidemics, it can be explained as the rapid spread and global effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Due to the restrictive effects of the epidemic, it has caused negative effects on daily life and working life. Also due to the globalization of the economy and the commercial interdependence of countries, the economic impact of the epidemic has also been global. In this study, the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economies of Turkey, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, The United Kingdom, The United States, Japan, Korea and China were examined. Social and economic measures taken by selected countries against the Covid-19 pandemic were examined and it was tried to explain how the pandemic process was sustained. By examining the effects of the pandemic on macroeconomic variables; foreign debt, foreign trade, economic growth, inflation, its effect on the financial sector, public finance balance and its effects on production are mentioned. The current situation has been evaluated with the help of published reports and statistical data using the literature on the subject. In this context, a comparative analysis of selected countries' economies on macroeconomic variables during the pandemic process is included.

International economic integration has risen during the last decades and the interdependence between each economy and the rest of the world has become central for policy decisions. My dissertation contributes to the debate about the conduct of monetary policy in a financially integrated world. In the first chapter of the dissertation I discuss the relationship between domestic policies and the currency denomination of foreign debt. Foreign debt is a double-edged sword. It allows countries to invest more than what would be possible given their own savings, thereby achieving preferable allocations that would not otherwise be feasible. However, it is the root of several crises. Foreign debt is especially hazardous when denominated in foreign currency; in such cases exchange rate depreciations increase the real value of the debt. An important question then is what determines the currency denomination of foreign debt. I use the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT) in several economies during the last two decades to evaluate the importance of domestic policies in the determination of the currency denomination of debt. In order to control for possible endogeneity in IT adoption, I use matching and instrumental variables estimators; both generate similar estimates. The results show that monetary policy can have substantial effects on the amount of debt in foreign currency and that a more flexible exchange rate regime increases the use of domestic currency in foreign borrowing.In the second chapter of the dissertation I investigate the relationship between central banks balance sheets and monetary policy. Heavy foreign exchange intervention by central banks of emerging markets have led to sizeable expansions of their balance sheets in recent years - accumulating foreign assets and non-money domestic liabilities (the latter due to sterilization operations). With domestic liabilities being mostly of short-term maturity and denominated in local currency, movements in domestic monetary policy interest rates can have sizable effects on central bank's net worth. In this chapter I examine empirically whether balance sheets considerations influence the conduct of monetary policy. The methodology involves the estimation of interest rate rules for a sample of 41 countries and testing whether deviations from the rule can be explained by a measure of central bank financial strength. My findings, using linear and nonlinear techniques, suggest that central bank financial strength can be a statistically significant factor explaining large negative interest rate deviations from "optimal" levels. In the third chapter I investigate whether countries that adopted the IT framework for monetary policy have been constrained by exchange rate consideration when taking policy decisions. I present stylized facts which suggest that exchange rates have been allowed to float relatively free in IT countries. I employ Bayesian Analysis techniques to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) structural model for twenty two IT economies and compute posterior odds tests to check whether the central banks systematically respond to exchange rate movements. The main result is that only five central banks directly respond to exchange rate movements; all the other IT central banks do not respond to the exchange rate. I also confirm that IT central banks have been conducting strictly inflationary policies, raising real interest rates in response to increases in inflation.

This report consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects. This report focuses on agricultural risk management. Malawi is now set to suffer a second year of poor harvests due to the effects of a drought that is sweeping Southern Africa. This drought has had a serious impact both on the economy and on food security, requiring a major humanitarian response. The current situation underscores Malawi's serious need to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector and to develop a better system of risk management. With the country expected to continue to face climate-induced shocks into the future, it is vital that the Government considers how best to mitigate the impact of such shocks. In 2015 Malawi recorded a GDP growth rate of just 2.8 percent, with this low rate the result of both adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic instability. Flooding in southern districts followed by a countrywide drought resulted in a contraction in agricultural production. Maize, the key crop in terms of food security, recorded a 30.2 percent year-on-year drop in production. As a result, an estimated 2.8 million people (17 percent of the population) were unable to meet their 2015/16 food requirements.

The three countries covered in this first report, Mali, Chad and Niger, share a number of common characteristics and face a similar set of challenges, which provides the foundation for this joint-review approach. All three are low-income landlocked economies. Each relies heavily on the agricultural sector as its primary source of income and livelihoods, and each has a large livestock subsector that is based in part on traditional nomadic pastoralism. All countries have important natural resource industries, gold for Mali, uranium and oil for Niger, and oil for Chad, which represent the bulk of export earnings and public revenue. This dependence on the primary sector renders these economies highly vulnerable to weather-related shocks and volatile commodity prices. Each is struggling to overcome a legacy of instability and violence, which is complicated both by the fragility of domestic socio-political conditions and the severity of regional security challenges. Finally, all three countries are members of a monetary union that uses a regional currency pegged to the euro and exercises significant influence over the macroeconomic policies of its member states. At the center of the trade-off between stabilization and development lies public investment management, at macroeconomic and financial management levels. Faced with repeated negative shocks, countries tend to cut ongoing and planned public investment projects which are often designed to reduce drivers of fragility and strengthen the resilience of economies, thus perpetuating risks of falling into fragility traps. Hence, Section three discusses the impact of public investment volatility on its quality in Chad, Mali and Niger, and explores possible options in terms of macroeconomic and public financial management to smooth public investment budget execution.

This report sets forth details of a financial recovery plan designed to help Vietnam Electricity (EVN), and the Vietnamese power sector more generally, to address a series of complex and interconnected challenges over the next 3 to 10 years. These challenges are operational and institutional as well as financial, and will lead to fundamental changes over time in the way that EVN and the overall power sector operate.

The images of flattened buildings and tent cities that dominated the news following the Haitian earthquake of January 12, 2010 triggered an emergency response from the global aid and development community. Foreign governments, multilateral organizations including the World Bank, and NGOs dramatically increased the flow of funding to the devastated country. The money helped pay for emergency relief but also for higher public investment spending that sought to repair damage and press ahead with development projects that had begun before the disaster. Six years later, the flow of aid is declining, and Haiti faces pivotal challenges: how to adapt to the reductions, raise more resources internally, spend more efficiently, and safeguard the fragile social gains it has achieved in a time of extreme hardship. The infrastructure Haiti has acquired in the recent surge of investment is something like a newly built house that lacks furniture and running water, it may look good from the outside but does little for its occupants. For the present, life remains a struggle for most of the country’s 10.4 million people. Thus in addition to growth, the country needs policies that will foster inclusiveness. Analysis and past experience suggest that two factors are key: human capital and political stability. To achieve this goal, Haiti will require a new outlook favoring fair, efficient government and social inclusiveness.

The World Bank has used an income classification to group countries for analytical purposes for many years. Since the present income classification was first introduced 25 years ago there has been significant change in the global economic landscape. As real incomes have risen, the number of countries in the low income group has fallen to 31, while the number of high income countries has risen to 80. As countries have transitioned to middle income status, more people are living below the World Banks international extreme poverty line in middle income countries than in low income countries. These changes in the world economy, along with a rapid increase in the user base of World Bank data, suggest that a review of the income classification is needed. A key consideration is the views of users, and this paper finds opinions to be mixed: some critics argue the thresholds are dated and set too low; others find merit in continuing to have a fixed benchmark to assess progress over time. On balance, there is still value in the current approach, based on gross national income per capita, to classifying countries into different groups. However, the paper proposes adjustments to the methodology that is used to keep the value of the thresholds for each income group constant over time. Several proposals for changing the current thresholds are also presented, which it is hoped will inform further discussion and any decision to adopt a new approach.

Evidence illustrates that investment in infrastructure is essential to accelerate inclusive growth. Indeed, a number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have begun to devote greater resources to large-scale public investment projects. Nevertheless, while massive projects can potentially generate large benefits there are considerable risks. Cost overruns, poor implementation quality, inadequate operational and maintenance capacity, and negative social or environmental impacts can severely undercut a project’s anticipated social and economic returns. Moreover, projects, which are expensive to develop and maintain can impact on debt dynamics and in some cases macroeconomic stability. Yet, given the complex nature of such projects it is often difficult to ascertain whether it is worthwhile to proceed with a project and if so, how should it be financed and implemented. Historically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used to assess the prospective impacts of large public investment projects. However, such models are a complex and time-consuming process and are often too broad to precisely capture the localized impact of specific projects. This paper proposes a simple, but more user-friendly model. By inputting information on the project’s construction, operation, and anticipated returns, the user is able to assess the project’s net impact on the economy and weigh up the costs and benefits of different approaches. The model was developed in response to a request from the Nigerien authorities to assess the macroeconomic impact of Niger’s Kandaji Dam project. It found that while costs would equal more than 10 percent of 2013 GDP during 2014-48, the expansion of domestic production spurred by increased demand during the construction phase will increase GDP by 0.25 percent above the baseline projection and boost fiscal revenues by an additional 0.45 percentage points of GDP.

Since early 2012, the World Bank’s High Frequency South Sudan Survey has collected a panel data set to monitor the welfare and perceptions of citizens in a selected number of state capitals in South Sudan. This note presents the findings of all six rounds of the survey on the topics of (1) Security, (2) Economic Conditions, (3) Assets and Consumption, and (4) Access to Services. The results are based on 143 households in Juba, Wau and Rumbek revisited six times. The analysis is restricted to households present in all rounds and, thus, is not statistically representative but only provides a descriptive narrative of the livelihood of the selected urban households in Juba, Rumbek and Wau. These cities are not among the cities most affected by the conflict.

This article reviews the main issues of regulating and supervising banks in emerging markets with a view toward evaluating the long-run options. Particular attention is paid to Latin America and East Asia. These economies face a severe policy commitment problem that leads to excessive bailouts and potential devaluation of claims of foreign investors. This exacerbates moral hazard and makes a case for importing external discipline (for example, acquiring foreign short-term debt). However, external discipline may come at the cost of excessive liquidation of entrepreneurial projects. The article reviews the tradeoffs imposed by external discipline and examines various proposed arrangements, such as narrow banking, foreign banks and foreign regulation, and the potential role for an international agency or international lender of last resort. Liberalization and integration of financial markets have been associated with an increase in capital movements and with the financial crises. In particular, surges in foreign short-term debt have been blamed for crisis episodes in emerging economies in Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea) and Latin America (Mexico, Brazil, Ecuador, and Argentina), as well as in the periphery of Europe (Turkey). These crises have proved costly in terms of output. Several policy responses have been suggested. Among them have been the reduction of short-term debt, the development of stock markets, the improved regulation and supervision of domestic financial system, enhanced transparency requirements and market discipline, and the establishment of an international lender of last resort. A catalog of “solutions” has been proposed to take care of the problems of banking in emerging market economies including moving to a narrow bank system, building a currency union, and leaving banking in the hands of foreign banks and offshore institutions. This article identifies policy responses tailored to the needs of emerging market and developing economies. The question is whether the regulatory policies and

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.

The aim of this paper is to explore how well does the theorethical model of the automatic adjustment of internal (prices) and external (foreign debt) balances fit Croatian reality. In other words, this paper studies the tendency of the Croatian economy to converge to a stable external and internal balance. The first part of the paper is analysing impulse functions derived from the unrestricted VAR model, whereby estimated Jacob matrix denotes coefficients by the prices and external debt. It is important to note that necessary and sufficient conditions for local asymptotic stability of stationary state implies that the trace and determinant of the Jacob matrix exceeds zero and is bellow zero respectively. The estimated model shows probable divergence of prices and external debt from stationary equilibrium. The second part of the paper brings the constraints and suggests possible ways to get 'better' estimator.

The Malaysian economy decelerated as solid domestic demand was not sufficient to offset a weakening external environment. Private consumption growth continued at a healthy pace. Favorable rubber and palm oil prices drove up incomes of smallholders while continued employment and wage growth supported urban incomes. In contrast, fixed investment was more volatile, with private investment showing signs of picking up while public investments lagged. Malaysia's overall balance of payments recorded a larger surplus in the first half of the year reflecting a widening current account surplus and substantial net financial inflows. Malaysia's open economy is expected to slow further in the remainder of 2011 and into early 2012 mainly due to the deterioration in the outlook for external demand. Cities are central to Malaysia's aspiration to become a high-income economy. Smart cities are skilled and innovative. They play a crucial role in catalyzing economic growth by generating productivity gains through agglomeration economies. Smart cities are green and sustainable. They ensure a high quality of life to all citizens and the sustainability of economic gains. Finally, smart cities are resilient.

The focus of the paper is on five key financial stability issues in Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), which have been selected on the basis of their degree of materiality for a reasonably broad range of EMDEs; their implications for regulatory, supervisory or other financial sector policies; and the extent to which these issues are not already being addressed by other international work streams. The paper does not cover other financial stability issues that may also be relevant for EMDEs but are addressed in other G20/Financial Stability Board (FSB) work streams. Such issues include the management of sizeable and volatile capital flows; the design of policy measures to address the risks arising from systemically important financial institutions; the development of macro-prudential policy frameworks; the creation of effective resolution tools and regimes for financial institutions; strengthening the oversight and regulation of the shadow banking system; and reforming the functioning of over-the-counter derivatives and commodities markets. This paper focuses on five key financial stability issues in EMDEs: 1) application of international financial standards; 2) promoting cross-border supervisory cooperation; 3) expanding the regulatory and supervisory perimeter; 4) management of foreign exchange risks; and 5) developing domestic capital markets.

This report is part of a series aimed at monitoring economic developments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The main objective of these reports is to provide regular updates on key macroeconomic developments and reform initiatives. The reports focus on macroeconomic developments and key structural reforms that have both significant short and medium term impacts. This report presents a broad overview of macroeconomic, political and structural developments in the DRC up to January 2011 and the outlook for the remainder of 2011. DRC's constitution adopted in 2006 has been revised in January 2011 by Parliament. The main changes to the original texts include the election of the president by a majority in a single round vote. The Congolese authorities have maintained prudent fiscal policies under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program, which has achieved the main objectives of this program in 2010 with an inflation rate (end-of-period) below the target of 9.9 percent. The economy has registered, thanks to the dynamism of the mining sector, a solid growth rate of 7.2 percent compared to 2.8 percent in 2009. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2011 is projected to reach 6.5 percent. The country's external position has improved. The current account balance, including grants, improved from a deficit of 10.5 percent of GDP in 2009 to 6.8 percent in 2010. Favorable commodity prices on the world market contributed to this development.

Many countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, especially in South America, fared well during the global crisis and are now on a strong growth path. The region s recession in 2009 was relatively short lived and, with the notable exception of Mexico, remarkably mild. The current pace of economic recovery is exceeding expectations, with gross domestic product (GDP) projected to grow in the 5-6 percent range in 2010. This report discusses LAC's newfound resilience in the midst of financial globalization, examining key features of the cyclical behavior of LAC economies in comparison to other emerging economies and to its own past. Resilience is defined throughout this report in a broad sense to denote the ability of an economy to navigate with minimum disturbances through shocks, cushioning their negative spillovers in bad times, and recovering fast after a downturn. The report is structured as follows: first, it evaluates the relative performance of LAC countries during the contractionary period generated by the recent global crisis, to shed light on LAC's ability to shield its economies or soften the blow of a large external shock. Second, a similar exercise is conducted for the recovery phase of the cycle, when in the aftermath of an external shock more resilient countries will be expected to have a faster and more robust recovery. Third, it takes a deeper look at the different driving forces behind the recovery, including the role of domestic demand, commodity prices, and the connection to emerging Asia. Fourth, it provides evidence of the ability of different countries in LAC to conduct counter-cyclical policies in response to the global financial crisis. Lastly, a concluding section warns about the main macro-financial tensions and challenges lying ahead for the region.

The improvement in public finances since last year, coupled with buoyant revenue due to the commodity price recovery, has led to growing pressures for increased government spending. Recently approved budget amendments envisage a 4.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) increase in spending on the originally approved 2010 budget, while the Mid-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) for 2011-2013 projects another 12.1 percent of GDP increase in spending in 2011. The main driver for the increases is the execution of promises made by both coalition parties to distribute monthly percentage rate, or MNT 1.5million (around US$1000) to each citizen in the form of cash and non-cash handouts and large public sector wage increases planned for October of this year. If these public spending plans materialize, they will set the stage for a renewed bout of high inflation and a possible return to the macroeconomic vulnerability characteristic of the boom-and-bust cycle of the recent past. In the real sector, the impact of increasing inflation is evidenced through a decline in real wages. The latest informal wage survey indicates that on average, workers' nominal wages have increased by about 10 percent from January 2010 to June 2010; this is because of an increase in job opportunities in the construction sector. Real wages, however, have declined on average due to the significant increase in the consumer price index.

Amid heightened global uncertainties, Russia is experiencing a bumpy recovery. Domestic demand is rising, but unemployment remains high, and credit and investment remain limited. The budget has benefited from higher oil prices, but fiscal consolidation remains important in the medium term. Crumbling infrastructure, especially in transport, could hamper the economy's competitiveness and longer-term growth prospects. The debt crisis in Western Europe sharpens the downside risks to global recovery and oil prices. But the effects on Russia are likely to be blunted by its stronger fiscal and debt positions and by limited trade and financial links with the affected countries. Russia is likely to grow by 4.5 percent in 2010, followed by 4.8 percent in 2011, as domestic demand expands in line with gradual improvements in the labor and credit markets. Employment is expected to improve gradually, however, enabling some further reductions in poverty.

The Philippines economy posted robust growth in early 2010, in part due to large one-off factors. As did many countries in the region, the Philippines benefited from a strong rebound in global trade. Manufacturing and investment activity expanded briskly as a result. Private consumption continued to expand, as consumer confidence improved. Growth also benefited from election-related spending. Expansionary (and now pro-cyclical) fiscal policy continued to support growth. Despite a withdrawal of liquidity-enhancing measures and a stronger peso, a closing output gap meant that monetary policy remained accommodative. A World Bank study of Philippines migration pattern during the global recession reveals that deployment of overseas foreign workers (OFWs) actually accelerated during the crisis. Partly this reflected the fact that the top OFW destinations were not as affected as the rest of the world. The most affected OFWs were males, production workers (especially construction workers) and new hires. By contrast, females, services workers, seafarers and rehires proved resilient to the crisis or even benefited from it. Globally, less tolerance towards weak public finances is expected, raising the need to introduce a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan for the Philippines. Running a pro-cyclical fiscal policy with relatively high debt and limited fiscal space-as undertaken in the first-half of 2010-raises risks and should be reverted. Credibility towards such a goal could be achieved, for example, by designing a comprehensive multi-year reform package. As the output gap closes, the accommodative monetary policy introduced in 2008 would need to be gradually unwound, starting by reaching a broadly neutral stance in 2010. An increase in policy rates currently negative or slightly positive could achieve such a goal.

This edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economic update concerns the region recovering from the financial crisis along with the global economy. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 4.4 percent region-wide, driven by domestic absorption as well as a positive contribution from external demand. The recovery from the crisis differs by country depending on initial conditions and the intensity of the impact via the three principal channels through which the global financial crisis affected MENA economies-the financial sector, the price of oil, and the balance of payments, reflecting the impact on trade, remittances and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are leading the regional recovery as oil prices have rebounded and the GCC financial sector is stabilizing. Developing oil exporters felt the impact of the crisis, and now the recovery, largely through the oil price channel, due to the limited integration of their banking sectors into global financial markets and the importance of oil in their exports. The oil importers were affected by the crisis through the secondary effects on trade, remittances, and FDI flows, so their recovery will depend crucially on the recovery in key markets, especially the EU and the GCC countries. High unemployment has been a problem in MENA for years, and the crisis has dimmed prospects for improvements in the near term. Ample oil and gas resources, a youthful and growing workforce, and a growing momentum to look for ways to diversify their economies imply that the growth potential of the region is high, but MENA countries continue to face formidable longer term challenges. Ensuring access to finance without compromising financial stability will be a major challenge in MENA, although issues related to weak regulatory systems, corporate governance and overdependence on the banking system also loom large. Key problems of the business environment in MENA include policy and regulatory uncertainty and discretion in implementing reforms which prevent a level playing field for all firms and encourage the pursuit of privileged access. These problems, coupled with barriers to entry and exit, have created an environment of stagnation. Addressing these issues will require applying rules and regulations consistently and without discrimination among firms and introducing reforms that promote business dynamism, private investment, and innovation.

Egypt's growth accelerated in the second half of FY10. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in FY10 reached 5.8 percent, up from 4.4 percent in FY09 and 4.8 percent in FY10, taking up overall GDP growth to an average of 5.3 percent for the full FY10. Egypt's macroeconomic outlook is stable. Assuming that domestic demand holds up, and Egyptian exports continue their observed recent trend, we expect that the Egyptian economy grows in the range of 6.0 to 6.2 percent in FY11. This is underpinned by strong commitment to maintain structural reforms momentum, and a relatively stable global economy. However, unemployment will remain a challenge as growth as high as 6 percent will barely absorb the increasing number of new entrants to the labor market. Unemployment will continue to be an overriding concern and will gradually fall to around 8.7 percent in FY11. Finally, inflationary pressures are expected to rise, as global prices are likely to filter to domestic consumer prices, domestic demand will gain more solid ground, and gradual adjustment of energy prices will be implemented. Interest rates are not thus expected to rise, yet real interest rates will remain low or negative. This outlook is consistent with that of standard and poor's ratings services which affirmed in 2010.

The large U.S. current account deficit over the last decade-and the corresponding surpluses in China and elsewhere-has been interpreted in two very different ways. Many mainstream economists view the phenomena as primarily the outcome of a low rate of national saving in the United States, beginning with a large budget deficit (the other half of the 'twin deficits'). In this first view, the current account deficit is unsustainable, and will eventually result in a sharp depreciation of the dollar. But this unsustainability view has been challenged by a variety of other economists, with equally impeccable credentials. This paper enumerates eight arguments that they have given as to why we need not worry about the current account deficit. The paper is skeptical of all eight, and sides with the unsustainability view. But they deserve a hearing. The eight are: 1) the siblings are not twins; 2) alleged investment boom; 3) low U.S. private savings; 4) global savings glut; 5) its a big world; 6) valuation effects pay for it; 7) intermediation rents pay for it; and 8) second Bretton woods.

Brazil grew 2.4 percent per year on average in the last 25 years-somewhat less than Latin America, a good deal less than the world, far less than the emerging countries of Asia in the same period, and indeed far less than Brazil itself in previous decades. If anything stands out favorably in recent Brazilian experience, it is not growth but stabilization and the successful opening of the economy. The purpose of this paper is more modest. It is limited to setting out the authors' particular view of recent efforts to consolidate democracy in Brazil while controlling inflation and resuming economic growth. At the same time the paper presents, as objectively as possible, some thoughts on the limits but also the relevance of action by political leaders to set a course and circumvent obstacles to that process. Here and there, the paper refers to the experiences of other Latin American countries, especially Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, not to offer a full fledged comparative analysis but merely to note contrasts and similarities that may shed light on the peculiarities of the Brazilian case and suggest themes for a more wide-ranging exchange of views.

Debates over the nature and direction of economic policy in Iran have intensified rather than abated after the tumultuous changes brought about by the revolution in 1979. In the span of these three decades, Iran has witnessed sweeping institutional changes and has been affected by significant economic and political upheavals. At the macroeconomic level, too, there have been a number of shocks ranging from oil booms and busts, to war (with Iraq), trade sanctions, and internal political strife. This paper uses Iran's experience to reflect on growth and development in the context of political upheaval and an uncertain institutional environment. It is a premise of the paper that Iran's recent past presents a rare, 'laboratory' like, case for the study of growth and development in a broad context. This paper examines post-revolutionary Iran's macroeconomic policies and performance in a comparative context, appraising it against Iran's past trends and real potential. It shows how recurrent cycles of populism and pragmatism have characterized this period. The paper argues that two sets of factors have conditioned Iran's performance and will continue to taint her prospects for sustainable growth into the future. These are: (i) Iran's limited economic diversification and continued dependence on the oil sector, and (ii) the institutional setting in which post-revolutionary economic policies have been formulated and implemented for much of the last three decades.

This paper is one of several case studies prepared for the World Bank. The objective of the case studies is to provide the Commission on Growth and Development insights on the policy reform process in developing countries that give rise to economic growth. In contrast to other countries where economic reforms ushered in a long period of sustained growth, there is no such episode in Philippine economic history. Since the restoration of democracy in 1986, the Philippines under the Ramos administration came closest to breaking out of its 'sick man of Asia' image. The confidence generated by the administration among local and international players and analysts resulted from wide-ranging reforms rooted primarily in a sound macroeconomic and investor-friendly regime as well as global competitiveness. This study is not intended as a scorecard of the Ramos Administration. Rather, it concentrates on three specific sector reforms during the Ramos administration that demonstrate the elements of successful reform processes. These reforms not only helped to free up demands on public finances then- considered, in today's parlance, the 'binding constraint' on needed public investment and reduced risk premium to encourage private investments-but over time brought gains, some unforeseen and broader in terms of positive spillover effects on the rest of the economy, and linkage to overall growth today.

The paper focuses its analysis on the last three decades of the twentieth century. The basic assumption is that Egypt's economic performance during this period was less than satisfactory compared with the most successful examples in the far East and elsewhere. The paper also assumes that Egypt's initial conditions at midcentury compared favorably with the winners in the development race at the end of the century. Egypt has achieved positive progress, no doubt, yet compared with the higher performers in Asia, and given its favorable good initial conditions, the record seems quite mediocre. By mid-twentieth century, Egypt's agriculture had almost reached its limits. Egypt, therefore, faced a new challenge: a need to transform itself into an industrial society. This objective was only partially achieved. The paper identifies three interrelated factors that helped hinder Egypt's accession to a new industrial society. The first factor is a strong state and a weak society. An authoritarian state that in its endeavor to preserve its prerogatives had to give up good governance practices and limit the creative initiative of the individuals. The second factor is a semi-rentier economy. The availability of windfall revenues not only reduced the pressure for change but also promoted a new rentier mentality that undermined the emergence of an industrial spirit. The third factor is an inadequate education system. This system failed to provide the proper skills and values required for the industrial society. These factors, moreover, are interdependent and reinforce each other.

This paper analyzes recent automotive investment in the Slovak Republic and shows how the development of the automotive industry has influenced growth in productivity and output in the broader economy. The study also discusses the motivations for automotive investment, with the country evolving from a relative laggard in reform implementation and foreign direct investment in the late 1990s to one of the region's top performers and one of the fastest-growing economies. It is argued that strong reform implementation, together with continued and credible commitment to reforms, were both preconditions for attracting automotive investments and the key factors that enabled these investments to flourish. The reform efforts were made possible by strong political consensus on accelerating European Union (EU) accession and boosting living standards. Taking into account the specificity of the industry, other aspects related to factor endowments have also played a role. Generous investment incentives appear to have played an important role in swaying foreign investors in selecting the Slovak Republic within the broader region of central Europe. Once investment in automotive production started, it contributed to additional investment by suppliers that has helped generate locally owned suppliers. These, in turn, are beginning to supply car producers in neighboring countries. All told, the full impact of the original automotive investment will be felt only over several years, but even in the early years it has been substantial. With output at the existing three producers set to reach capacity only by 2010, the impact is likely to be more substantial still.

Government bankruptcies in the countries of the so-called periphery during the period of the gold standard were no rare events. They were also not limited to the Ottoman Empire and the Balkan countries. Prominent examples outside this region were Peru, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.In this paper a difference is made between open and hidden or veiled government bankruptcies. The latter are happening if budget deficits are covered by substantial money creation leading to inflation. In this case non-indexed government debt loses its value and is inflated away. This path is not open, if the debt is not denominated in the national but in a stable foreign currency or in units of gold or silver. This is usually the case for debt owed to foreigners. But sometimes both kinds of government bankruptcies are occurring together.In the present paper several general qualitative hypotheses are tested for the Balkan countries and the Ottoman Empire: First, that the abolishment of fixed exchange rates is usually the consequence of budgetary deficits leading to inflation. Second, that in this case an undervaluation of the national currencies develops. Third that by contrast an overvaluation arises if only a mild inflation is caused in this way, so that the fixed exchange rate can be maintained.And fourth, that with an open bankruptcy relative to foreign owed debt a kind of crisis develops which finally leads to an international agreement reducing the amount of the debt, or of the interest rate paid on it. Another feature of this agreement may be the institution of more or less far-reaching foreign control of the fiscal and monetary policies of the debtor country.

Following several years of disappointing economic performance, Senegal has made an important turnaround, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaging over 5 percent annually during 1995-2005. This paper shows that macroeconomic and structural reforms are key factors explaining this recovery. Drivers of sound economic policy decisions in Senegal have included enhanced democratic processes, political commitment to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), and donor community conditionalities.

Blanchard (2005) suggested that active interest rate policy might induce unstable dynamics in highly-indebted economies. We examine this in a dynamic general equilibrium model where Calvo-type price rigidities provide a rationale for inflation stabilization. Unstable dynamics can occur when the CB is aggressively raising the interest rate in response to higher expected inflation. The constraint on stabilizing interest rate policy is tighter the higher the primary deficit and the more open the economy is. If the government cannot borrow from abroad in its own currency, stability requires interest rate policy to be accommodating (passive). Inflation stabilization is nevertheless feasible if the CB uses an instrument not associated with default risk, e.g. money supply.

Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows. Another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results. The answer, another influential strand of thought contends, is that this efficient-markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows. Limits on capital movements are a distortion. It is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present.

This article analyzes how external crises spread across countries. The authors analyze the behavior of four alternative crisis indicators in a sample of 20 countries during three well-known crises: the 1982 debt crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, and the 1997 Asian crisis. The objective is twofold: to revisit the transmission channels of crises, and to analyze whether capital controls, exchange rate flexibility, and debt maturity structure affect the extent of contagion. The results indicate that there is a strong neighborhood effect. Trade links and similarity in pre-crisis growth also explain (to a lesser extent) which countries suffer more contagion. Both debt composition and exchange rate flexibility to some extent limit contagion, whereas capital controls do not appear to curb it.