1. Seasonality in malaria transmission: implications for case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa
- Author
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Badara Cisse, Daniel Chandramohan, Brian Greenwood, Lucy C Okell, Kwaku Poku Asante, Paul Milligan, Matthew Cairns, Patrick G T Walker, Jamie T. Griffin, Azra C. Ghani, Seth Owusu-Agyei, Diadier Diallo, Alassane Dicko, Tini Garske, and Medical Research Council (MRC)
- Subjects
Cross-sectional study ,INFANTS ,law.invention ,NORTHERN GHANA ,law ,1108 Medical Microbiology ,Artemisinin ,Child ,SEVERE FALCIPARUM-MALARIA ,WESTERN KENYA ,INTERMITTENT PREVENTIVE TREATMENT ,biology ,PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Incidence ,Malaria epidemiology ,Artemisinins ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Infectious Diseases ,KASSENA-NANKANA DISTRICT ,Child, Preschool ,Drug Therapy, Combination ,Seasons ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Cohort study ,medicine.drug ,YOUNG-CHILDREN ,Combination therapy ,SEVERE ANEMIA ,Antimalarials ,Tropical Medicine ,parasitic diseases ,medicine ,Humans ,ANTIMALARIAL-DRUG RESISTANCE ,Science & Technology ,business.industry ,Research ,Plasmodium falciparum ,Seasonality ,Post-treatment prophylaxis ,biology.organism_classification ,medicine.disease ,Artemisinin-based combination therapy ,Malaria ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Immunology ,Parasitology ,Heterogeneity ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Background Long-acting artemisinin-based combination therapy (LACT) offers the potential to prevent recurrent malaria attacks in highly exposed children. However, it is not clear where this advantage will be most important, and deployment of these drugs is not rationalized on this basis. Methods To understand where post-treatment prophylaxis would be most beneficial, the relationship between seasonality, transmission intensity and the interval between malaria episodes was explored using data from six cohort studies in West Africa and an individual-based malaria transmission model. The total number of recurrent malaria cases per 1000 child-years at risk, and the fraction of the total annual burden that this represents were estimated for sub-Saharan Africa. Results In settings where prevalence is less than 10 %, repeat malaria episodes constitute a small fraction of the total burden, and few repeat episodes occur within the window of protection provided by currently available drugs. However, in higher transmission settings, and particularly in high transmission settings with highly seasonal transmission, repeat malaria becomes increasingly important, with up to 20 % of the total clinical burden in children estimated to be due to repeat episodes within 4 weeks of a prior attack. Conclusion At a given level of transmission intensity and annual incidence, the concentration of repeat malaria episodes in time, and consequently the protection from LACT is highest in the most seasonal areas. As a result, the degree of seasonality, in addition to the overall intensity of transmission, should be considered by policy makers when deciding between ACT that differ in their duration of post-treatment prophylaxis. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0839-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
- Published
- 2015