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The Europe 2020 Strategy has formulated key policy objectives or so-called “headline targets†which the European Union as a whole and Member States are individually committed to achieving by 2020. One of the five headline targets is directly related to the key quality aspects of life, namely social inclusion; within these targets, the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition (EU-SILC) headline indicators at risk-of-poverty or social exclusion and its components will be included in the budgeting of structural funds, one of the main instruments through which policy targets are attained. For this purpose, Directorate-General Regional Policy of the European Commission is aiming to use sub-national/regional level data (NUTS 2). Starting from this, the focus of the present paper is on the “regional dimension†of well-being. We propose to adopt a methodology based on the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) with an extension to the spatial dimension (SEBLUP); moreover, we compare this small area technique with the cumulation method. The application is conducted on the basis of EU-SILC data from Austria and Spain. Results report that, in general, estimates computed with the cumulation method show standard errors which are smaller than those computed with EBLUP or SEBLUP. The gain of pooling SILC data over three years is, therefore, relevant, and may allow researchers to prefer this method.

This paper contributes to the methodological literature on the estimation of poverty lines for country poverty comparisons in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper exploits a unique, comprehensive data set of 86 up-to-date urban official extreme and moderate poverty lines across 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as the recent values of the national purchasing power parity conversion factors from the 2011 International Comparison Program and a set of harmonized household surveys that are part of the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean project. Because of the dispersion of country-specific poverty lines, the paper concludes that the value of a regional poverty line largely depends on the selected aggregation method, which ends up having a direct impact on the estimation of regional extreme and moderate poverty headcounts.

This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle-class status in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, before and after the Arab Spring transitions, using objective and subjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysis employs state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques using repeated cross sections of expenditure data from household surveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys, which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Spring period. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower than average chances for upward mobility, and greater than average chances for downward mobility according to both types of welfare measures.

Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State–affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State–affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State–affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.

The purpose of the study presented in this article is an interregional analysis of human potential. The quality of the population proper is investigated at the regional level far less than the quality of the population life. The article provides an extended characteristic of human potential in seven directions: economic activity, demographic processes, physical health, the cultural potential of population, social health, educational potential, the attitude of population to the environment. On the basis of official statistics for 2008–2012, there were selected 63 indicators characterizing human potential in all these directions. In the final result, the correlation analysis has led to the substantiation of the system of indicators for the level of human potential development, consisting of 10 indicators. The system included 3 economic indicators and 7 social indicators characterizing human potential. Upon these indicators the Russian regions were divided in two types of regions by means of hierarchic agglomerative (combining) methods of cluster analysis: the regions with economic indicators and without them. The performed calculations provided the typology of regions by the human potential indicators being stable over time and covering 74.4 % of the Russian population. A substantial interpretation of breaking down regions by groups, identification of both strong and weak aspects of each cluster were made, finding out specific features of the regions falling under the clusters. The obtained results can be used when working out measures for reducing the interregional inequality in the levels of human potential development. To find out what measures can be effective, it is possible to examine the strategic directions of regions’ development in the cluster that is the most successful with respect to the human potential characteristics under investigation.

In the past decade, Turkey has experienced a notable level of poverty reduction at all levels (extreme poor, poor, and vulnerable). The steady decline in poverty was also resilient to the decline in gross domestic product per capita growth during the crisis. However, although poverty convergence was strong before the financial crisis, there was an absence of regional convergence afterward. This paper analyzes poverty trends, poverty convergence, economic mobility, and the determinants of poverty reduction at the regional level over the period 2006–13. The analysis finds that agricultural growth in the east was an important contributor to Turkey's regional poverty reduction. In additionally, employment growth in the services sectors boosted poverty reduction throughout the entire country. From a fiscal perspective, the amount of per capita central spending is also linked to poverty reduction, although more strongly for regions in the west.

Labor-intensive public works programs are important social protection tools in low-income settings, intended to supplement income of poor households and improve public infrastructure. In this evaluation of the Malawi Social Action Fund, an at-scale, government-operated program, across- and within-village randomization is used to estimate effects on food security and use of fertilizer. There is no evidence that the program improves food security, and some negative spillovers to untreated households. These disappointing results hold even under modifications to the design of the program to offer work during the lean rather than harvest season or increase the frequency of payments.

Inequality in Indonesia is rising and a recent survey suggests that Indonesians are growing increasingly concerned. The Gini coefficient in Indonesia has increased sharply over the past 15 years, increasing from 30 in 2000 to 41 in 2013. In a 2014 survey on public perceptions of inequality, most Indonesians consider income distribution in Indonesia to be very unequal or not equal at all. In addition, half of all respondents feel that Indonesia has become more unequal or much more unequal over the past five years. The true extent of high inequality, however, is worse than most people realize. Respondents believe that the ideal income distribution is one where the top 20 percent of the population earn as much as the bottom 40 percent. Not with standing this ideal, respondents estimate that the actual income distribution has the top 20 percent earning as much as the bottom 60 percent. However, the 2014 National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas 2014) suggests that the richest 20 percent actually earn as much as the rest of the population combined. Furthermore, because household surveys typically do not capture the incomes of the richest Indonesians, the real level of inequality in Indonesia is probably even higher.

The paper investigates the structure and dynamics of consumption inequality and inequality of opportunity in Tanzania. The analysis covers the period 2001 to 2012. It reveals moderate and declining levels of consumption inequality at the national level, but increasing inequalities between geographic regions. Spatial inequalities are mainly driven by the disparities of households’ characteristics and endowments across geographic locations. An important part of these endowments results from intergenerational transmission of parental background. Father’s education appears as the most important background variable affecting consumption and income in Tanzania. Without appropriate policy actions, there are few chances for the next generations to spring out of the poverty and inequality lived by their parents, engendering risks of poverty and inequality traps in the country.

Accurately measuring poverty and assessing trends in its incidence and severity are among the most fundamental challenges in economic development. The issue of effective poverty measurement has been the subject of renewed interest since the United Nations adopted the millennium development goals (MDGs) in 2000. In Niger, as in many comparable countries worldwide, poverty data are collected through household surveys of consumption patterns and living conditions. A number of methodological factors can affect the accuracy of consumption data during the collection phase, especially the number of survey visits, the time of year during which the questionnaire is administered, the recall period, and the composition of the consumption basket defined in the survey. The purpose of this paper is to produce a robust analysis of poverty trends in Niger from 2005 to 2011 by using the 2011 survey as the basis for monitoring poverty and correcting for methodological differences in earlier surveys. The decision to use the 2011 survey as the basis for establishing methodological consistency is rooted in two factors. First, the large variations in poverty estimates obtained in different survey periods are suspected to be due in part to changes in the survey methodology. Second, the 2011 survey coincided with the adoption of Niger’s current growth and poverty reduction strategy, programme de développement economique et social (PDES). The report describes the 2011 survey methodology and the techniques used to make the previous figures compatible with this methodology. It presents the revised poverty figures and discusses their implications. It also offers conclusions and recommendations.

Strong poverty reduction in Latin America resumed with the growth rebound in 2010, as both moderate and extreme poor households benefitted from the recovery, accelerating poverty reduction to rates similar to those witnessed between 2003-2006 despite a 2.8 percent decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, poverty levels in Latin America (LAC) remained basically static during the great recession, as the poor were shielded from the economic crisis in some countries and continued to benefit from growth in others. In 2010, poverty reduction resumed sharply in Latin America, as household incomes were once again closely linked to economic growth at rates similar to pre-crisis years. Moderate poverty declined by almost 2.5 percentage points to reach 28 percent in 2010, while extreme poverty fell by more than 2 percentage points to reach 14 percent. As 2011 comes to a close, once again the global economy and Latin America are facing risks of yet another economic slowdown. Using household survey data from 2010 and selected labor market indicators through the third quarter of 2011, this note identifies some basic facts on the impact of the crisis and the recovery on the poor and explores their implications for poverty reduction in the region going forward.

This article employs established techniques from the spatial economics literature to identify regional patterns of income and growth in Mexico and to examine how they have changed over the period spanned by trade liberalization and how they may be linked to the income divergence observed following liberalization. The article first shows that divergence has emerged in the form of several income clusters that only partially correspond to traditional geographic regions. Next, when regions are defined by spatial correlation in incomes, a south clearly exists, but the north seems to be restricted to the states directly on the United States (U.S.) border and there is no center region. Overall, the principal dynamic of both the increased spatial dependency and the increased divergence lies not on the border but in the sustained underperformance of the southern states, starting before the North American free-trade agreement, and to a lesser extent in the superior performance of an emerging convergence club in the north-center of the country.