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A feasibility study of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system was conducted for the Eastern Caribbean region using scenario earthquakes, corresponding to the maximum credible earthquakes and to the earthquakes associated with a return period of 475 years. Broadband synthetic seismograms were produced at selected critical facilities, where there is potential interest in the installation of an EEW system. The expected damage was derived from the synthetic seismograms and compared with the lead-time determined for both a regional and on-site EEW configuration. Next, the Virtual Seismologist EEW algorithm, as included in SeisComP3, was tested. Additional broadband synthetic seismograms were produced for the stations in the Eastern Caribbean seismic networks in order to simulate the real time behaviour of the seismic networks during the occurrence of the synthetic earthquakes and to assess the predictive capacity of the selected ground motion prediction equation. Expected peak ground parameters and lead-times at the critical facilities constitute the major outcome of the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A representation of seismic hazard is proposed for Italy based on the zone-free approach developed by Woo (BSSA 86(2):353-362, ), which is based on a kernel estimation method governed by concepts of fractal geometry and self-organized seismicity, not requiring the definition of seismogenic zoning. The purpose is to assess the influence of seismogenic zoning on the results obtained for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Italy using the standard Cornell's method. The hazard has been estimated for outcropping rock site conditions in terms of maps and uniform hazard spectra for a selected site, with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Both spectral acceleration and spectral displacement have been considered as ground motion parameters. Differences in the results of PSHA between the two methods are compared and discussed. The analysis shows that, in areas such as Italy, characterized by a reliable earthquake catalog and in which faults are generally not easily identifiable, a zone-free approach can be considered a valuable tool to address epistemic uncertainty within a logic tree framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]