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В статье рассмотрены факторы влияющие на уровень жизни населения. Для развития страны надо тщательно изучать социальные факторы, и чтобы облегчить их разработать программу о социальной политики., The article considers factors affecting the standard of living of the population. For the development of the country, it is necessary to carefully study social factors, and to facilitate their development of a program on social policy.

The dataset 'Economic Growth in the Cape Colony' was downloaded from the Centre for Global Economic History website, of Utrecht University (http://cgeh.nl/economic-growth-cape-colony). On these data and estimates the researchers based their reconstruction of GDP for the Cape Colony (1701-1795). In this dataset are also related data for the nineteenth century making it possible to bridge the gap between the estimates and the official series of national accounts for South-Africa starting in 1911. A large part of data for the eighteenth century are derived from: Pieter van Duin and Robert Ross, The Economy of the Cape Colony in the Eighteenth Century (Leiden 1987), but the researchers added data from various sources as well. The details of the reconstruction and the interpretation of the results are presented in: Johan Fourie and Jan Luiten van Zanden, ‘GDP in the Dutch Cape Colony: The National Accounts of a Slave-Based Society’, South-African Journal of Economics, 81, 4 (2013), 467-490 (see the PDF in this data package). The estimation of the National Accounts for the Cape Colony are explained in the Statistical Appendix of this article (PDF, p.20-24). Following a national accounts framework, the data show that Cape settlers’ per capita income is similar to the most prosperous countries of the time – Holland and England. This is partly explained by a highly skewed population structure and very low dependency ratio of slavery, and attempt to link the eighteenth-century Cape Colony experience to twentieth-century South African income levels.

Статье исследуется проблема неравенства между странами СНГ. На взгляд автора, одной из основных причин международной миграции является неравенство в доходах между странами — участницами миграционных процессов. В этом случае международные мигранты создают предпосылки для снижения неравенства между странами — участницами данного процесса. The article studies the problem of inequality between the CIS countries. In the author’s opinion, one of the main reasons for international migration is income inequality between countries involved in migration processes. In this case, international migrants create conditions for reducing inequality between countries involved in this process. Публикация подготовлена при поддержке РФФИ, проект № 16–02–00164 ОГН «Научно-методический инструментарий измерения оценки и управления факторами социально-экономического неравенства в системе воспроизводства трудового потенциала регионов России».

Malaria and pneumonia remain a public health problem in low-income countries, including Madagascar. However, while malaria has received more attention and its control programs have been strengthened since the creation of the Global Fund in 2002, pneumonia is often neglected. Face on the encouraging results of malaria community case management, UNICEF wants to integrate pneumonia management at community level. To support this advocacy, the impact and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy must be known to verify that it is effective and efficient. This is the purpose of Chapter 4 of this thesis which studies the pilot experiment conducted by Unicef in the district of Antalaha. It is shown that this program has had a significant impact on the management of malaria and pneumonia. However, the quality of this care is questioned. This situation indicates that, before scaling up, this program should be revised to improve it. Besides the loss of well-being, malaria and pneumonia have a financial and economic cost. Therefore, the economic effects of the two diseases are shown in the chapters 2 and 3 concerning the case of Madagascar. Previously, the theoretical under-base of the link between health and economic development is presented in the first chapter.; Le paludisme et la pneumonie constituent encore des problèmes de santé publique dans les pays à faible revenu, dont Madagascar. Toutefois, si le paludisme a reçu plus d’attention et vu ses programmes de lutte renforcés depuis la création du Fonds mondial en 2002, la pneumonie quant à elle est souvent négligée. Cependant, depuis peu, l’Unicef, s’appuyant sur les résultats encourageants obtenus au niveau communautaire dans la lutte contre le paludisme, pousse à l’intégration du dépistage et de la prise en charge de la pneumonie au niveau communautaire. Pour appuyer ce plaidoyer, des études d’impact et de type coût-efficacité sont nécessaires pour vérifier que cette stratégie est bien efficace et efficiente. C’est l’objet du chapitre 4 de cette thèse qui étudie l’expérience pilote menée par l’Unicef dans le district d’Antalaha. Nous montrons que ce programme a eu un impact notable sur la prise en charge du paludisme et de la pneumonie. Toutefois, la qualité de cette prise en charge est encore remise en question. Cela indique que, avant de décider d’une mise à l’échelle, ce programme mérite d’être révisé pour l’améliorer. Outre la perte de bien-être, le paludisme et la pneumonie ont un coût financier d’abord, économique, ensuite. Un des arguments de plaidoyer est alors de montrer, s’il y en a, les effets économiques des deux maladies. C’est l’objet des chapitres 2 et 3 avec une application à Madagascar. Auparavant, le sous-bassement théorique du lien entre santé et revenu ou développement économique est présenté dans le premier chapitre.

The high level of exports and their product and market concentration exposes the Democratic Republic of Congo to the economic fluctuations of the country's trade partners. This paper uses the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development trade data set to analyze the Democratic Republic of Congo's export patterns for the period 1960-2014. The data confirm that the country's exports remain highly concentrated. The product concentration on minerals is high and reaches exceptional levels. The geographic concentration is also high, while there is a shift in destinations. Hence, EU27, traditionally the main market destination for the Democratic Republic of Congo, lost its importance to China for most of the past decade. This trend continued to increase in the past few years from 2010 to 2013. The clear prevalence of commodity products within the Democratic Republic of Congo's exports and the higher exposure to the Chinese economic cycle are sources of vulnerability. The empirical analysis indicates that the country's exports appear to be significantly sensitive to foreign demand fluctuations. This exposure increases the volatility of the country's macroeconomic framework to exogenous shocks, with negative consequences on growth in gross domestic product and on external balances. The analysis concludes that increasing the Democratic Republic of Congo's resilience requires product and market diversification of exports. This diversification requires improvements in the investment climate and business environment, with emphasis on skills and infrastructure.

This paper combines theory with data from different domains to provide an empirical analysis of the scale and variability of social capital as wealth. The analysis is used to argue, given what has been learned from the literature on social capital, that the welfare returns to investing in trust could be substantial. Using data from 132 nations covered by the Gallup World Poll, the paper presents a range of estimates of the wealth-equivalent values of social trust. Such values are usually not included in national or global accounts of income and wealth. In the light of the estimated importance of social trust as a component of wealth and well-being, the paper concludes with some policy options for how social trust might be better built and sustained.

This paper examines the role of changes in sectoral productivity gaps over time in accounting for growth realized by countries over the past few decades. To quantify the productivity impact of the sectoral gaps, a simple model of resource allocation is developed in which the gaps arise due to distortions in the form of asymmetrical taxes across sectors. The paper finds a limited role of changes in distortions over time in accounting for actual growth. Implied growth from changes in distortions accounts for less than 2.5 percent of actual growth for the median country. To check if the lower contribution of changes in distortions is because of unrealized gains suggested by high levels of present distortions, productivity gains are estimated when distortions across countries are reduced to the US levels. Barring a couple of cases, the gains in aggregate productivity are modest across the sample of countries.

With the success of the World Trade Organization and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, in reducing conventional tariff barriers, much of the recent focus of regional and multilateral trade agreements has switched to non-tariff measures, both border and behind-the-border policies. This paper considers the recent empirical and theoretical literature on non-tariff measures in the world trading system. It provides a set of stylized facts based on available data on non-tariff measures and reviews the key methods used to estimate their trade impact. It considers the theoretical treatment of these measures in the trade literature with a focus on the rules and institutions that govern non-tariff measures in the world trading system. It discusses some of the major issues regarding international cooperation in these policy areas, in particular whether such cooperation should entail deep integration (involving precise legally binding obligations) or shallow integration (which allows countries greater discretion in the setting of non-tariff measures). Finally, this paper reviews some of the specific features the World Trade Organization uses in dealing with non-tariff measures such as national treatment rules and non-violation complaints, and considers policy options beyond the WTO such as harmonization and mutual recognition of standards.

This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most promising policy options to reduce welfare losses due to floods. Calibrated with household surveys, the model suggests that welfare losses from the July 2005 floods in Mumbai were almost double the asset losses, because losses were concentrated on poor and vulnerable populations. Applied to river floods in 90 countries, the model provides estimates of country-level socioeconomic resilience. Because floods disproportionally affect poor people, each $1 of global flood asset loss is equivalent to a $1.6 reduction in the affected country's national income, on average. The model also assesses and ranks policy levers to reduce flood losses in each country. It shows that considering asset losses is insufficient to assess disaster risk management policies. The same reduction in asset losses results in different welfare gains depending on who benefits. And some policies, such as adaptive social protection, do not reduce asset losses, but still reduce welfare losses. Asset and welfare losses can even move in opposite directions: increasing by one percentage point the share of income of the bottom 20 percent in the 90 countries would increase asset losses by 0.6 percent, since more wealth would be at risk. But it would also reduce the impact of income losses on wellbeing, and ultimately reduce welfare losses by 3.4 percent.

This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country.

This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis finds that although greater migration could push down the wages of native workers of advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional South-North migration could favor capital income recipients and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run. In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied losses of remittance income could lead to substantially lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller relative to their wage differentials with high-income countries, South-South migrants make substantial contributions to remittances.

Although several studies have examined why overall price levels are higher in richer countries, little is known about whether there is a similar relationship at the urban and city level across countries. This paper compares the price levels of cities in Sub-Saharan Africa with those of other regions by analyzing price information collected for the 2011 round of the International Comparison Program. Readjusting the calculated price levels from national to urban levels, the analysis indicates that African cities are relatively more expensive, despite having lower income levels. The price levels of goods and services consumed by households are up to 31percent higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other low- and middle-income countries, relative to their income levels. Food and non-alcoholic beverages are especially expensive, with price levels around 35 percent higher than in other countries. The paper also analyzes price information collected by the Economist Intelligence Unit's Worldwide Cost of Living Survey, and obtains a similar result, indicating higher prices of goods and services in African cities.

This report explores the sectors that will be instrumental for positive CU impact and competitiveness in the medium term. The initial chapter analyzes the gaps and opportunities the Kyrgyz NQI presents for capturing benefits of access to the enlarged common market across sectors. The next three chapters take an in-depth look at three high-growth sectors and identify adaptation priorities and opportunities. Agriculture, services, and garments are a large and growing share of exports and are the sectors most likely to be transformed by accession to the CU and the increased tariffs to countries outside the EEU. Services added 56 percent to GDP in 2013, while agriculture contributed 18 percent, and manufacturing 16 percent. Exports in the garment sector were close to US$200 million in 2013, employing over 150,000 workers. The main findings of each chapter are summarized below followed by a summary of recommendations. This report is relevant to the Kyrgyz experience as it highlights important differences both in terms of regulations and technical requirements. The report highlights differences between the EU and CU regulatory systems in approaches to food safety and legislation, but it also analyzes the differences in infrastructure aspects of the NQI, such as testing laboratories and certification mechanisms between the EU and CU. The Customs Union approach is based on end-product compliance to a specific technical regulation or standard, whereas the European Union relies on preventive measures and minimizing risks associated with each process throughout the complete food chain. In the CU food control system, food control bodies verify that the end-product meets the required technical specifications established by the government; in the EU system, end-product attributes such as size, color, shape, smell, and taste are generally left to the marketplace to judge if they are acceptable. Importantly, the report pinpoints specific technical requirements for EU food safety that differ from the CU requirements (microbiological criteria for foodstuff, contaminants in food; maximum residue limits for residues of pesticides, and pharmacologically active substances).

Existing work on China's economic influence in Africa refers to Africa in broad terms, thereby generalizing the results to an extent that is unhelpful for policy-makers in a specific country. Moreover, the emphasis is on oil exporters. This paper remedies this by focusing on a single, oil-importing country: Kenya. The paper examines China's economic presence in Kenya and some of the popular myths surrounding Chinese economic activity. The first myth is that Chinese companies do not employ local workers. In fact, 78 percent of full-time and 95 percent of part-time employees in Chinese companies are locals. Second, although China represents a large potential market for local exporters, the study finds that China has a better chance of expanding its exports to Kenya than Kenya does to China based on existing specializations. This may change with recent oil discoveries in Kenya, increasing the space for Kenyan exports to China, as well as from China's shift to a consumption-driven economy which will increase demand for services, a growing strength of Kenya's economy (World Bank Country Economic Memorandum 2016). The paper emphasizes that Kenyan policy makers should be less concerned about bilateral trade imbalances and worry about Kenya's overall trade balance. However, the Standard Gauge Railway and Thika superhighway experiences suggest that Chinese firms offer relatively few technology transfer or supplier opportunities for local firms and academia. Third, the popular focus of Chinese competition is on the impact on well-organized Kenyan producers and not on consumers, thereby underestimating the benefits Kenyan consumer derive from the availability of more affordable Chinese goods. The paper concludes with policy directions for improving export competitiveness and transparency in infrastructure projects, and local content.

Industry and financial profiles of MENA firms may underpin the observation that MENA country exports are below potential and skewed toward low value-added goods that are unable to spur rapid job creation and inclusive growth. To assess this link, the paper combines analysis highlighting external financing as a determinant of export performance, and analysis highlighting sector asset tangibility and governance. Why? Because high value-added sectors tend to have higher shares of intangible assets and to create innovative products requiring substantial research and development or investments, thereby making these sectors more dependent on external financing. Using sector- and firm-level export data with country-level indicators, the results indicate that countries with more developed financial sectors and stronger governance tend to have higher exports from sectors that are more reliant on finance external to the firm, and lower exports from sectors with higher shares of tangible assets. Interestingly, financial sector development boosts exports less in MENA than in non-MENA countries. To foster expansion of higher value exports, the results suggest a critical need for: (i) deeper financial sector development that strengthens market-based systems, such as asset registries and credit reporting agencies, and (ii) strengthening of legal and governance frameworks.

This paper uses a set of national household surveys to study the regional Sub-Saharan Africa distribution of consumption expenditure among individuals during 1993 to 2008. The analysis puts the disparities in living standards that exist among persons in Africa into context with the disparities that exist within and between African countries. Regional interpersonal inequality has increased (from a Gini index of 52 percent in 1993 to 56 percent in 2008), driven by increasing disparities in living standards across countries, while there has been no systematic increase in within-country inequality. For the African distribution as a whole, growth of consumption expenditure (from household surveys) has been low (around 1 percent per year). This growth has been uneven and as a result the richest 5 percent of Africans received around 40 percent of the total gains, while the bottom third stagnated.

As a small economy, Moldova’s growth and development prospects are closely related to its performance in international and regional markets. In this report the authors have looked at the export performance and competitiveness of the Moldovan economy. This report provides an overview of Moldova’s trade competitiveness. Its objectives are twofold: (i) to present a comprehensive analysis of Moldova’s recent trade performance and (ii) to identify policy measures and interventions that can enhance the competitiveness of Moldova’s export firms and the value added of their exports. The report is divided into two main parts. Part one contains an exports outcome analysis. It assesses export performance along four dimensions that contribute to form a comprehensive picture of the sustainable competitiveness of the export sector, including (i) the level, growth, and market share performance of existing exports (the “intensive margin”); (ii) diversification of products and markets (the “extensive margin”); (iii) the quality and sophistication of exports (the “quality” margin); and (iv) the survival of export flows (the “sustainability margin”). Part two investigates constraints on Moldova’s competitiveness, focusing specifically on a series of supply-side factors, such as the role of backbone and input services and utilities, and access to finance; and the business environment, particularly government regulations affecting trade and governance and institutional quality. The rest of the report is structured as follows: Section two examines overall trends in trade flows, including the growth of exports and imports, the degree of trade openness, and the recent evolution in foreign direct investment flows. In Section three, the authors concentrate on export outcomes, analyzing the sectoral composition, the growth orientation, and degree of diversification of Moldovan exports. The authors also analyze the evolution in the quality and sophistication of exports and the survival of export relationships in different markets and sectors. In the second part of the report, the authors look at productivity dynamics of Moldovan firms in comparative perspective, and then investigate the impact of access to finance, backbone services, trade and customs regulations, and corruption on firm productivity. The authors conclude this report with policy recommendations to improve Moldova's export competitiveness and increase the product and market scope, quality, and sophistication of its export basket.

Belize has a rich history that dates back thousands of years. The country was first inhabited by the Mayans with records of their presence dating from 1500 BC. The first recorded European settlement was established circa 1638 by the British who called the country the Colony of British Honduras. The official name of the territory was changed from British Honduras to Belize in June 1973, and full independence was granted on September 21, 1981. There were several obstacles in the path toward independence, as illustrated by Guatemala's long-standing claim to the entire territory. It was only in November 1980, after several frustrated negotiations with Guatemala that Belizean diplomacy managed to obtain international support that led to the United Nations passing of a resolution that demanded the independence of Belize, but it was only in 1992 that Guatemala formally recognized Belize’s independence. After independence, Belize successfully implemented a development strategy which emphasized economic diversification and private sector development at a time where the terms of trade were favorable to the country. As a small, open economy, that is also extremely vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters, Belize’s ability to promote faster poverty reduction and greater shared prosperity will depend on how well the country deals with its main sources of vulnerability. In addition to weaknesses in infrastructure and in the skills of the labor force, several studies have pinpointed crime and violence and problems in the financial sector as important deterrents to growth. The analysis in this report confirms the centrality of these two factors. The predicament in the financial sector is largely driven by the small economic size of the country and the lack of competition in the banking sector, a common feature in small state economies that limits the availability of credit to small and medium enterprises. Stability issues in the sector complicate matters as these impose non-negligible risks to the health of the financial sector. On the other hand, the rise in the inflow of migrants from neighboring Central American countries with a history of crime and violence has been raised as a potential cause for high crime rates in Belize, but there is not enough evidence to substantiate that claim at this point. Policy interventions that could help halt the rise in criminality rates include ramping up the quality of education, keeping children at school, promoting education equivalency programs and job training, besides more direct approaches such as investing in safe neighborhood programs.

This paper develops a novel methodology to measure the quantity of jobs and value of wages embodied in exports for a large number of countries and sectors for intermittent years between 1995 and 2011. The resulting Labor Content of Exports database allows the examination of the direct contribution of labor to exports as well as the indirect contribution via other sectors of the economy for skilled and unskilled labor. The analysis of the new data sets documents several new findings. First, the global share of labor value added in exports has been declining globally since 1995, but it has increased in low-income countries. Second, in line with the standard Hecksher-Ohlin trade model, the composition of labor directly contained in exports is skewed toward skilled labor in high-income countries relative to developing countries. However, that is not the case for the indirect labor content of exports. Third, manufacturing exports are a key source of labor demand in other sectors, especially in middle- and low-income countries. And the majority of the indirect demand for labor spurred by exports is in services sectors, whose workers are the largest beneficiaries of exporting activities globally. Fourth, differences in the labor value added in exports share across developing countries appears to be driven more by differences in the composition of exports rather than in sector labor intensities. Finally, average wages typically increase rapidly enough with the process of economic development to more than compensate the loss in jobs per unit of exports. The paper also includes the necessary information to build the Labor Content of Exports database from the original raw data, including stata do-files and matlab files, as well as descriptions of the variables in the data set.

This systematic country diagnostic (SCD) discusses on Belize’s ability to promote faster poverty reduction and greater shared prosperity which will depend on how well the country deals with its main sources of vulnerability. The main areas in need of a big push that could have the highest potential impact on the twin goals are : (i) improving education and skills; (ii) addressing crime and violence; and, (iii) increasing resilience to climate change and natural disasters. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters and climate change along with improvements in the existing infrastructure in Belize are critical to support the twin goals to end extreme poverty, and promote shared prosperity in poorer segments of society. Sustainable progress towards the achievement of the twin goals of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Belize will also require prioritizing fiscal sustainability. This SCD is structured in six chapters that range from a brief description of the main features of Belize to the discussion of priorities for growth and shared prosperity. Chapter 1 presents the country context, highlighting Belize’s main features as a small upper middle income country that faces high volatility associated with its size and vulnerability to exogenous shocks. Chapter 2 discusses trends in poverty and shared prosperity. Chapters 2 through 5 discuss the main underlying factors that have been found to influence Belize’s growth performance as well as its economic, social and environmental sustainability. Each of these chapters discuss in greater detail the nature of the challenges, dig deeper into exploring the likely causes of these challenges, and identify policy areas that could be critical for boosting growth and inclusion and ensuring sustainability. These chapters also identify knowledge and data gaps on areas where new information could help strengthen a diagnosis and inform specific actions in the priority areas. The sixth and final chapter has three important and distinctive features. First, it provides a synthesis of the analysis and findings of the previous chapters. Second, it provides a discussion of the approach used to identify the priorities for action in Belize. And, third, it concludes with a discussion of the priorities to boost shared prosperity and ensure economic, social and environmental sustainability in Belize.

Devastating earthquakes in April and May of 2015 took a huge human toll, destroyed homes, businesses, irreplaceable cultural heritage sites, and slowed economic growth. The Government of Nepal (GoN), through a post disaster needs assessment (PDNA), estimated the value of losses at United States dollar (USD) 7.1 billion (physical damage of USD 5.2 billion and economic losses, spanning several years, of USD 1.9 billion). Nepal’s political parties intensified their efforts to adopt a new constitution, after eight years of deliberations, spurred on by the shift in political priorities following the April and May earthquakes. A normalization was envisaged whereby the faster budget implementation and sustained reconstruction activities can lead to a surge in imports, which will have tipped the current account balance into deficit over the forecast period, despite large remittances. Similarly, increased government spending on capital expenditure, as national reconstruction authority speeds up reconstruction activities, will lead to a larger budget deficit. The aim of this report is to report on key economic developments over the preceding months, placing them in a longer term and global perspective and to examine topics of particular policy significance.

Once concentrated among a few large economies, global flows of goods, services, and capital now reach an ever-larger number of countries worldwide. Global trade in goods and in services both increased 10 times between 1980 and 2011, while foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased almost 30-fold. A value chain is global when some of these stages are carried out in more than one country, most notably when discrete tasks within a production process are fragmented and dispersed across a number of countries. Southern African Customs Union (SACU) - region global value chains (GVCs) are both a new reality and significant opportunity for expanding non-commodity exports to support growth, diversification, and job creation in the region. The task-based nature of GVCs creates opportunities for developing countries to establish very quickly a position in global trade within a sector in which they may have had no previous experience. For South Africa, GVCs are seen as a route to higher manufacturing exports and greater value addition. For other SACU countries, GVCs are seen as a route to diversification and global integration, and to leverage the possibility of greater investment from South Africa itself. The main objectives of the study are as follows: (i) to understand trends of GVC participation and competitiveness of South Africa and the wider SACU region, the outcomes from this participation (exports, jobs, and productivity), and the factors that determine competitiveness; (ii) to map the extent of value chain integration across the region and identify barriers to deeper integration; and (iii) to identify policies and actions that will be required to develop a globally competitive, high value-adding factory Southern Africa.

This paper analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the economies of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States using a model of a small open economy subject to interest rate and fiscal expenditure shocks and financial frictions. The paper shows that macroeconomic aggregates in this region are quite volatile, with consumption exhibiting higher volatility than gross domestic product. The analysis also finds that in these economies real interest rates are highly volatile and strongly countercyclical with gross domestic product and other macroeconomic aggregates. Similarly, fiscal expenditures show significant volatility, but are pro-cyclical with gross domestic product. The results suggest two major directions for designing policies to help reduce the volatility experienced by the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States economies. First, Organization of Eastern Caribbean States countries should seek a greater openness to international financial markets, which could help them smooth out the effects of fundamental shocks, such as shocks to technology and terms of trade, and shocks associated with natural hazards. However, this removal of international financial barriers needs to be accompanied by improvements in domestic financial conditions, as this would reduce the vulnerability of these economies to country risk premium shocks. Second, the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States region should try harder to move toward a countercyclical fiscal policy stance, as this could help to stabilize the domestic risk premium and cushion the negative effects of interest rate shocks on economic activity, hence reducing volatility.

interest in studying city competitiveness has skyrocketed in the past few years, although the topic itself is far from new. Mayors and city leaders have long worried about the obstacles to job creation, competitiveness, and economic growth that plague their cities. The objective of this paper is to present key findings from the quantitative analysis of the drivers of competitiveness in cites around the world.

The hub-periphery development pattern of the Guangdong economy, to some extent, is a miniature of that of the Chinese economy. The Pearl River Delta, drawing from its first-nature comparative advantages in factor endowments and proximity to Hong Kong SAR, China, and Macau SAR, China, and the second-nature advantages as first-movers in the reforms in attracting and retaining domestic and foreign resources, has developed into a regional economic center. This paper examines the pattern of inter- and intra-provincial migration and that of the concentration of production, to explore the challenges and opportunities for the success of “double transfer.” The paper suggests a four-prong approach, to improve the business environment, support the realization of latent comparative advantages, increase the skill level of the labor force to support the upgrade of the production structure, and protect the vulnerable, to support the inclusive growth of the economy in Guangdong in a sustainable manner.

This paper uses a combination of survey questions to instructors and data collected from course syllabi and examinations to examine how the subject of development economics is taught at the undergraduate and masters levels in developing countries, and benchmark this against undergraduate classes in the United States. The study finds that there is considerable heterogeneity in what is considered development economics: there is a narrow core of only a small set of topics such as growth theory, poverty and inequality, human capital, and institutions taught in at least half the classes, with substantial variation in other topics covered. In developing countries, development economics is taught largely as a theoretical subject coupled with case studies, with few courses emphasizing data or empirical methods and findings. This approach contrasts with the approach taken in leading U.S. economics departments and with the evolution of development economics research. The analysis finds that country income per capita, the role of the state in the economy, the education level in the country, and the involvement of the instructor in research are associated with how close a course is to the frontier. The results suggest there are important gaps in how development economics is taught.

Despite significant improvements in per capita expenditures and a marked decline in poverty over the 2000s, a large fraction of Eastern Europe and Central Asias population reports their economic situation in the late 2000s to be worse than in 1989. This paper uses data from the Life in Transition Survey to document the gap between objective and subjective economic mobility and investigate what may drive this apparent disconnection. The paper aims at identifying some of the drivers behind subjective perceptions of economic mobility, focusing on the role of perceptions of fairness and trust in shaping peoples perceptions of their upward or downward mobility. The results show that close to half of the households in the region perceive to have experienced downward economic mobility, that is, that their position in the income distribution has deteriorated. The results also show that perceptions of higher inequality, unfairness, and distrust in public institutions are associated with downward subjective economic mobility. The findings from this study confirm that factors beyond objective well-being are associated with the perceptions of mobility observed in Europe and Central Asia and may explain why the region has had such a pessimistic view of economic mobility during the past two decades. Understanding what drives peoples perceptions of their living standards and quality of life is important, because regardless of objective measures, perceptions could influence peoples behavior, including support for reforms and labor market decisions. For Eastern Europe and Central Asia, a region that has undergone substantive transformations and which is still going through a reform process, accounting for these aspects is critical.

The objective of this paper is to synthesize the findings of six individual case studies (Bucaramanga, Colombia; Coimbatore, India; Kigali, Rwanda; Gaziantep, Turkey; Changsha, China; and Tangier, Morocco) by analyzing the similarities and dissimilarities among them and identifying common, cross-cutting themes. The intent is to highlight what institutions and strategies successful cities have relied on to spur economic development, under what conditions such success has occurred, and what lessons of this experience might be applicable to decision makers in other cities.

This report addresses two questions: what explains Ethiopia’s growth acceleration?; and how can it be sustained? In brief, the authors find that Ethiopia’s rapid economic growth, concentrated in agriculture and services, was driven by substantial public infrastructure investment and supported by a conducive external environment. To sustain high growth, three policy adjustments are presented: identifying sustainable ways of financing infrastructure, supporting private investment through credit markets, and tapping into the growth potential of structural reforms.

Inequality in Indonesia is rising rapidly. During the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, poverty rosesharply, while the Gini measure of inequality fell, as the richest were the hardest hit. Since then, the Gini has increased from 30 points in 2000 to 41 points in 2014, its highest recorded level. In 2002, the richest 10 percent of Indonesians consumed as much as the poorest 42 percent combined; by 2014, they consumed as much as the poorest 54 percent. Even this is likely to be understated, as household surveys often miss the rich. Indonesias level of inequality is now becoming high and climbing faster than most of its East Asian neighbors.

Using highly disaggregated firm-level customs transaction data for imports and exports in Peru over the 2000–2012 period, this paper explores the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. The paper shows that greater use, variety, and quality of imported intermediate inputs is significantly correlated with higher exports, faster export growth, greater diversification of export markets, and higher quality exports (as measured by relative unit prices) at the firm level. This relationship is robust and persistent to controls for unobserved firm heterogeneity and year fixed effects. The use of imported inputs is also associated with higher productivity at the firm level. Considering the relationship between specific trade policy measures and the import performance of those exporters that are direct importers, the analysis shows that those exposed to higher tariffs and nontariff measures import less in total and exhibit lower import variety. The use of the advanced clearance procedure as the modality to clear customs for imports is favorable to the import performance of exporter-importers, in that the users of the modality import more and import a more diversified bundle of inputs than those that do not use it, even after controlling for firm size.

The authors use the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate subnational 2013 GDP growth and levels for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational GDP is consequential for three reasons: First, there is strong policy interest in seeing how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, sub-nationals themselves want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national GDP. Third, such information could help private investors to better assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new (and more accurate) estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However it may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit (notably agriculture). Indeed, we find that the association between nightlights and GDP is stronger where unlit agriculture accounts for a smaller part of overall economic activity. With these caveats in mind, our analysis yields some interesting results. For Kenya, our results affirm that Nairobi County is the largest contributor to national GDP. However, at 13 percent, this contribution is lower (of 60 percent) as commonly thought. For Rwanda, the three Districts of Kigali account for 40 percent of national GDP, underscoring the lower scale of economic activity in the rest of the country. To get a composite picture of subnational economic activity, especially in the context of rapidly improving official statistics in Kenya and Rwanda, the authors note the importance of estimating subnational GDP using standard approaches (production, expenditure, income).

A structural gravity model is used to estimate barriers to services trade across many sectors, countries, and time. Since the disaggregated output data needed to infer border barriers flexibly are often missing for services, this paper derives a novel methodology for projecting output data. The empirical implementation sheds light on the role of institutions, geography, size, and digital infrastructure as determinants of border barriers. The paper finds that border barriers have generally fallen over time, but there are differences across sectors and countries. Notably, border effects for the smallest economies have remained stable, giving rise to a divergent pattern across countries.

As a small economy, Uruguay’s growth and poverty reduction prospects are closely related to its performance in international markets. This report analyzes export dynamics in Uruguay over the period 2000-2013, benchmarking them against relevant comparator countries. It looks at export outcomes through four different dimensions of export performance: (1) the evolution, composition, and growth orientation of the country’s export basket; (2) the degree of diversification across products and markets; (3) the level of sophistication and quality; and (4) the survival rate of export relationships. The report offers a number of hypotheses for an in-depth competitiveness diagnostic of Uruguay’s external sector, as well as policy recommendations to increase integration and to gain from it. In addition to the real depreciation of the peso that followed the crisis, the international prices of Uruguay’s main export products soared. This stimulated investment in technological improvements in the production of these natural-resource-intensive products. Section one analyzes the macroeconomic environment in which exporters operate in Uruguay during the period of analysis. Section two looks at level, growth, composition, and market share performance of Uruguay’s exports, as well as the country’s main trading destinations. Section three focuses on the diversification of products and markets, considering several measures of concentration, including the share of top five products and markets in exports, and the Hirschman-Herfindahl index for Uruguay’s export portfolio. Sections four and five address quality and sophistication and survival, respectively.