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Objectives The purpose of this study was to estimate the mediating effect of subjective unmet healthcare needs on poor health. The mediating effect of unmet needs on health outcomes was estimated. Methods Cross-sectional research method was used to analyze Korea Health Panel data from 2011 to 2015, investigating the mediating effect for each annual dataset and lagged dependent variables. Results The magnitude of the effect of low income on poor health and the mediating effect of unmet needs were estimated using age, sex, education level, employment status, healthcare insurance status, disability, and chronic disease as control variables and selfrated health as the dependent variable. The mediating effect of unmet needs due to financial reasons was between 14.7% to 32.9% of the total marginal effect, and 7.2% to 18.7% in lagged model. Conclusions The fixed-effect logit model demonstrated that the existence of unmet needs raised the likelihood of poor self-rated health. However, only a small proportion of the effects of low income on health was mediated by unmet needs, and the results varied annually. Further studies are necessary to search for ways to explain the varying results in the Korea Health Panel data, as well as to consider a time series analysis of the mediating effect. The results of this study present the clear implication that even though it is crucial to address the unmet needs, but it is not enough to tackle the income related health inequalities.

In three web-based experiments, we show that both actual poverty and experimentally induced (imagined) poverty create a preference for greater inequality. Study 1, a cross-national comparison between Americans and Swedes, showed that respondents who were actually poor and those who were experimentally induced to imagine that they were poor tended to express a heightened preference for greater inequality, and for a higher proportion of poor citizens. Study 2 replicated the effects using different procedures. Study 3 showed that imagining oneself being poor increases preferences for a greater proportion of poor people, but imagining oneself being rich does not increase preferences for a greater proportion of rich people. This poverty prefers company effect might affect support for policies aiming at reducing the number of poor people.

Uganda’s progress in reducing poverty from 1993 to 2006 is a remarkable story of success that has been well told. The narrative of Uganda’s continued, albeit it slightly slower, progress in reducing poverty since 2006 is less familiar. This was a period in which growth slowed as the gains from reforms years earlier had been fully realized, and weak infrastructure and increasing corruption increasingly constrained private sector competitiveness (World Bank 2015). This report examines Uganda’s progress in reducing poverty, with a specific focus on the period 2006 to 2013. The report shows that high growth from 2006 to 2010 benefited poverty reduction. Before turning in further detail to the key findings of the report, it is important to note that the analysis undertaken in this report is only possible because the Government of Uganda has invested in a high quality series of household surveys to document progress in wellbeing since 1993. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics has conducted high-quality household surveys that every three to four years that have provided a comparable series of data on poverty and other household characteristics for the last twenty years. Uganda is one of the few countries in the region to have achieved this level of comparable, frequent poverty monitoring over time. Without this, it would not be possible to document the lessons Uganda provides.

The relationship between violence and chronic poverty has been studied mostly in the context of war or long-term episodes of conflict. In contrast to previous studies, this paper explores whether violence that does not include the shattering of infrastructure impacts the chance that poverty may remain chronic. A long-run perspective is gained by analyzing unique, recently gathered panel data at the municipality level in the Mexican context, covering the period from 1990 to 2010. Violence is measured as the number of non-drug-related homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. A municipality is classified as chronically poor if the percentage of people in food poverty remains above the national average during two consecutive periods. Econometric analysis is carried out through discrete choice models. Putting the results in context, consider of a chronically poor municipality in 2005 in which average household income is below the 25th percentile in 2000. If this municipality had a 10.47 non-drug-related homicide rate, the 75th percentile in 2000, its chance of remaining chronically poor into 2005 was almost double the corresponding chance of a municipality with the same mean household income but at the national median of violence in 2000 (zero non-drug-related homicides).

The rural economy in Bangladesh has been a powerful source of economic growth and has substantially reduced poverty, especially since 2000, but the remarkable transformation and unprecedented dynamism in rural Bangladesh are an underexplored, underappreciated, and largely untold story. The analysis identifies the key changes occurring in the rural economy, the principal drivers of rural incomes, the implications for policy, and related actions to foster future growth, further reduce poverty, and improve food security and nutrition. A substantial strength of this study is its empirical foundation, consisting of three sets of detailed data on rural households. Two of the datasets are unique in tracking the same set of households for more than two decades. These data make it possible to examine how change is occurring within and among rural households; they shed considerable light on trends that tend to be obscured at more aggregate levels of analysis. Nationally representative surveys and aggregate secondary data provide complementary and contextually rich insights into the household data.

Moldova has experienced rapid economic growth in the past decade, which has been accompanied by reductions in poverty and good performance in shared prosperity. Nonetheless, Moldova remains one of the poorest countries in Europe and faces challenges in sustaining the progress. The challenges for progress include spatial and cross-group inequalities, particularly because of unequal access to assets, services and economic opportunities. Moreover, strengthening the persistently weak labor markets to boost employment, especially in the nonfarm sectors, is critical for sustaining progress toward the twin goals of reducing poverty and expanding shared prosperity and for addressing the problems associated with an aging population in a fiscally responsible manner. Accordingly, ensuring the viability of the pension system and improving social assistance are necessary areas of reform, particularly in a context of fiscal pressures, the aging population, and the great vulnerability of the poor to shocks. The Moldova poverty assessment 2016 includes three prongs of analysis: this report, which explores trends and the drivers of poverty and shared prosperity, and the accompanying analyses, ‘a jobs diagnostic for Moldova’ and ‘structural transformation of Moldovan small-holder agriculture and its poverty and shared prosperity impacts.’ The jobs diagnostic explores the main labor demand and supply challenges in Moldova in more detail, while the analysis of structural transformation focuses on the agricultural sector and whether it can become a driver of progress.

This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most promising policy options to reduce welfare losses due to floods. Calibrated with household surveys, the model suggests that welfare losses from the July 2005 floods in Mumbai were almost double the asset losses, because losses were concentrated on poor and vulnerable populations. Applied to river floods in 90 countries, the model provides estimates of country-level socioeconomic resilience. Because floods disproportionally affect poor people, each $1 of global flood asset loss is equivalent to a $1.6 reduction in the affected country's national income, on average. The model also assesses and ranks policy levers to reduce flood losses in each country. It shows that considering asset losses is insufficient to assess disaster risk management policies. The same reduction in asset losses results in different welfare gains depending on who benefits. And some policies, such as adaptive social protection, do not reduce asset losses, but still reduce welfare losses. Asset and welfare losses can even move in opposite directions: increasing by one percentage point the share of income of the bottom 20 percent in the 90 countries would increase asset losses by 0.6 percent, since more wealth would be at risk. But it would also reduce the impact of income losses on wellbeing, and ultimately reduce welfare losses by 3.4 percent.

There is no doubt that the poorest people are already and will continue to be most severely impacted by climatic changes, including shifting trends as well as more frequent and severe extreme events. Yet, new insights on the dynamics and distribution of poverty point to the need to comprehend where the poor and poorest are, how they are poor, and why their poverty constrains their abilities to cope with and adapt to occurring and predicted changes. This paper draws on a diverse and growing literature on climate change and poverty to argue that uneven power relations more so than exposure and sensitivity to climatic hazards make the poor and disadvantaged distinctly more vulnerable than more affluent, privileged, and powerful groups and individuals. Further, climatic stressors and climate change as well as climate policies, often entangled with social exclusion and institutional neglect, compound the issue of poverty and exacerbate human precariousness, hence acting as a threat multiplier. The paper compares different approaches to assessing poverty, and explores structural processes and power dynamics that drive or perpetuate inequalities. The paper also investigates how the currently nonpoor may become transient or chronic poor, how climate change may exacerbate poverty traps, and how interventions to curb emissions and multidimensional poverty may be tackled to pursue climate-resilient development pathways.

This paper provides evidence on the impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that when a significant portion of village income is spent on town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the village sample leads to underestimation of agriculture's role in employment growth and transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of agricultural productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale) manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in education and health services. For formal employment, the effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas and rural towns compared with rural areas alone. Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce structural transformation within the services sector with employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster pace than that of low skilled services.

The Ebola pandemic has been one of the most virulent pandemics in modern times. By the end of 2015, the epidemic had cost the lives of more than 11,300 people in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, including more than 500 frontline health care workers. After good growth performance between 2011 and 2013, Guinea’s economy has suffered a number of setbacks, including the Ebola crisis and a sharp drop in new investment in the mining sector. As part of the international effort to understand and manage the Ebola crisis and to obtain microeconomic data, the World Bank partnered with Guinea’s National Institute of Statistics (INS) to conduct a mobile phone survey to measure the socioeconomic impact of Ebola on households, following in the footsteps of similar mobile surveys conducted in Liberia and Sierra Leone in 2015. The study finds that the pandemic had ripple effects on the economic fabric and that the economic effects of Ebola have outlasted the epidemiological ones. In addition to the great loss of life, the epidemic has caused great damage to the countries’ economies. As part of the international response, the World Bank Group has significantly financed the Ebola-affected countries. Guinea was significantly affected by the Ebola pandemic, jeopardizing some of the gains in macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction during the last few years. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Guinea, with 60 percent of the respondents residing in the areas strongly affected by Ebola. Using newly collected data through a mobile phone survey, this study analyzes the socioeconomic impact of Ebola on households in Guinea. The survey shows that all parts of Guinea were economically affected by Ebola, with greater impacts in the southeast and the areas around Conakry. It is interesting to note that a quarter of respondents in the severely affected areas reported experiencing proven cases of Ebola in their neighborhood or village. In relation to agriculture, it is found that Ebola did not negatively affect agricultural production and food price. Another surprising finding is that despite Ebola and risk of contamination, households that needed treatment for malaria and diarrhea still visited a health facility, whereas a significant proportion of households reduced their attendance of health facilities. Income loss for rural households was much more related to difficulties in selling their production, than to lower agricultural production or lower food prices. However, Ebola has had a larger effect on urban employment, as illustrated by the increase in the urban unemployment rate. On the other hand, due to Ebola, children dropped out of school, and households adopted coping strategies by reducing their food consumption and selling key assets.

Measuring poverty requires adjusting nominal consumption (or income) into a real value of consumption, across geographic areas and over time. To this end, data on consumer prices are used to construct a price index. There are a range of approaches to do this, from using the consumer price index, to survey-based unit values, which differ in the underlying sources of price data and methodologies for indexing. These different approaches can have large impacts on poverty measures and trends. Surprisingly little attention has been focused on this topic. This study reviews a range of issues and the evidence on how prices matter for measuring poverty, particularly in Africa. It draws on a wide literature, much from developed countries, and offers suggestions for future work in this area.

This paper provides an overview of poverty and well-being trends in India since the mid-1990s. Poverty reduction since 2005 has been much faster than the earlier decade, as a result of broad-based growth across most geographic areas. Underlying this is a pattern of high mobility in economic status that has led to an emerging middle class. Still, a vast (and rising) share of the population faces significant risk of slipping back into poverty. India's poor are increasingly concentrated in low-income states with historically lower rates of economic progress. Even as India has reduced poverty faster than the developing world as a whole, the degree of poverty reduction associated with growth has been substantially lower than in some of its middle-income peers. India faces important challenges in nonmonetary dimensions of welfare as well. Despite success on important fronts, such as infant and child mortality and secondary education, progress has been slow in others, such as sanitation and nutrition, and lags behind some other countries that are at a similar stage of development.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) identifies the binding constraints to reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in Ethiopia. Achieving those goals requires a two pronged strategy of building on the strengths of past performance as well as introducing new elements. Progress in rural livelihoods drove poverty reduction in the past and will likely do so in the future. In addition, faster, and more inclusive, private sector-led structural change and ‘getting urbanization right’ are essential going forward. The report identifies two key challenges to sustainable progress: Ethiopia needs sustainably financed infrastructure that enables private investment to flourish and reduces reliance on public borrowing. It must also strengthen feedback mechanisms that inform policymakers of what works and what doesn’t so that the aspirations of a rapidly rising and better-educated working-age population can be met. The report is structured in two parts: Part A analyses the past and Part B identifies priorities for the future.

This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle-class status in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, before and after the Arab Spring transitions, using objective and subjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysis employs state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques using repeated cross sections of expenditure data from household surveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys, which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Spring period. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower than average chances for upward mobility, and greater than average chances for downward mobility according to both types of welfare measures.

World Bank's international poverty line of $1.90/day, at 2011 purchasing power parity, is based on a collection of national poverty lines, which were originally used to set the international poverty line of $1.25/day at 2005 purchasing power parity. This paper proposes an approach for estimating a more recent, complete, and comparable collection of national poverty thresholds from reported national poverty rates. The paper presents a set of international poverty lines based on this new database of national poverty lines. In contrast to the lines used to estimate the $1.90 international poverty line, this approach produces national poverty lines that are (1) consistent with national poverty rates, (2) expressed in common units, and (3) provide greater support to the estimated international poverty line. These national poverty lines are used to estimate an extreme international poverty line, and three higher lines that are more relevant for higher-income countries. A key finding provides evidence of the robustness and relevance of the $1.90 international poverty line as a measure of extreme poverty for low-income countries.

This paper uses a set of national household surveys to study the regional Sub-Saharan Africa distribution of consumption expenditure among individuals during 1993 to 2008. The analysis puts the disparities in living standards that exist among persons in Africa into context with the disparities that exist within and between African countries. Regional interpersonal inequality has increased (from a Gini index of 52 percent in 1993 to 56 percent in 2008), driven by increasing disparities in living standards across countries, while there has been no systematic increase in within-country inequality. For the African distribution as a whole, growth of consumption expenditure (from household surveys) has been low (around 1 percent per year). This growth has been uneven and as a result the richest 5 percent of Africans received around 40 percent of the total gains, while the bottom third stagnated.

Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State–affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State–affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State–affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.

Analysis of Sri Lanka’s recent progress in reducing poverty and inequality is directly relevant to the new government’s development agenda. The newly sworn-in president ran for election on a platform that featured, among other goals, inclusive growth and support to the agricultural sector. The pursuit of these and other goals of the new administration can be informed by a fuller understanding of recent developments in household living standards across the country. Yet the World Bank’s most recent poverty assessment in Sri Lanka, covering the period from 1990 to 2002, was published a decade ago. Since then, domestic economic growth, the end of the civil conflict and fluctuations in global markets has led to substantial changes in Sri Lanka’s economic environment. To inform the new government’s development policies, this report examines five topics related to recent developments in poverty and welfare. Sections two through five of the report focus on: (i) trends in poverty, welfare, and inequality since 2002, (ii) labor market outcomes associated with the observed reduction in poverty, (iii) four potential causes of this poverty reduction, (iv) the state of poverty and inequality in 2012/13, and (v) the role of social protection in reducing poverty. Section six concludes by pointing out future implications and remaining knowledge gaps to continue to reduce poverty and improve living standards. This analysis draws mainly on data from the 2002, 2006-07, 2009-10, and 2012-13 rounds of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, supplemented by annual rounds of the labor force survey from 2002 to 2012. Since the surveys could not be conducted in parts of the Northern and Eastern provinces before 2011 due to the civil conflict, their geographical coverage varies from year to year. To ensure comparability, all historical trends presented in this report correspond to the same geographic area. With the exception of figures that are based solely on 2012-13 data, the figures exclude Northern and Eastern provinces, which account for about 12.9 percent of the total population. A more detailed description of the data is provided in appendix one.

People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.

Inequality in Indonesia is rising and a recent survey suggests that Indonesians are growing increasingly concerned. The Gini coefficient in Indonesia has increased sharply over the past 15 years, increasing from 30 in 2000 to 41 in 2013. In a 2014 survey on public perceptions of inequality, most Indonesians consider income distribution in Indonesia to be very unequal or not equal at all. In addition, half of all respondents feel that Indonesia has become more unequal or much more unequal over the past five years. The true extent of high inequality, however, is worse than most people realize. Respondents believe that the ideal income distribution is one where the top 20 percent of the population earn as much as the bottom 40 percent. Not with standing this ideal, respondents estimate that the actual income distribution has the top 20 percent earning as much as the bottom 60 percent. However, the 2014 National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas 2014) suggests that the richest 20 percent actually earn as much as the rest of the population combined. Furthermore, because household surveys typically do not capture the incomes of the richest Indonesians, the real level of inequality in Indonesia is probably even higher.

Policy makers in developing countries, including India, are increasingly sensitive to the links between spatial transformation and economic development. However, the empirical knowledge available on those links is most often insufficient to guide policy decisions. There is no shortage of case studies on urban agglomerations of different sorts, or of benchmarking exercises for states and districts, but more systematic evidence is scarce. To help address this gap, this paper combines insights from poverty analysis and urban economics, and develops a methodology to assess spatial performance with a high degree of granularity. This methodology is applied to India, where individual household survey records are mapped to “places” (both rural and urban) below the district level. The analysis disentangles the contributions household characteristics and locations make to labor earnings, proxied by nominal household expenditure per capita. The paper shows that one-third of the variation in predicted labor earnings is explained by the locations where households reside and by the interaction between these locations and household characteristics such as education. In parallel, this methodology provides a workable metric to describe spatial productivity patterns across India. The paper shows that there is a gradation of spatial performance across places, rather than a clear rural-urban divide. It also finds that distance matters: places with higher productivity are close to each other, but some spread their prosperity over much broader areas than others. Using the spatial distribution of this metric across India, the paper further classifies places at below-district level into four tiers: top locations, their catchment areas, average locations, and bottom locations. The analysis finds that some small cities are among the top locations, while some large cities are not. It also finds that top locations and their catchment areas include many high-performing rural places, and are not necessarily more unequal than average locations. Preliminary analysis reveals that these top locations and their catchment areas display characteristics that are generally believed to drive agglomeration economies and contribute to faster productivity growth.

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).

With 2015 marking the transition from the Millennium to the Sustainable Development Goals, the international community can celebrate many development successes since 2000. Three key challenges stand out: the depth of remaining poverty, the unevenness in shared prosperity, and the persistent disparities in non-income dimensions of development. First, the policy discourse needs to focus more directly on the poorest among the poor. While pockets of ultra-poverty exist around the world, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to most of the deeply poor. To make depth a more central element in policy formulation, easy-to-communicate measures are needed, and this note attempts a step in this direction with person-equivalent measures of poverty. Second, the eradication of poverty in all of its forms requires steady growth of the incomes of the bottom 40 percent. Yet, economic growth, a key driver of shared prosperity, may not be as buoyant as before the global financial crisis. Third, unequal progress in non-income dimensions of development requires addressing widespread inequality of opportunity, which transmits poverty across generations and erodes the pace and sustainability of progress for the bottom 40. To meet these challenges, three ingredients are core to the policy agenda: sustaining broad-based growth, investing in human development, and insuring the poor and vulnerable against emerging risks.

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the international poverty line. In order to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the World Bank’s twin goals, the new poverty line was chosen so as to preserve the definition and real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs) in poor countries. Using the new 2011 PPPs, the new line equals $1.90 per person per day. The higher value of the line in US dollars reflects the fact that the new PPPs yield a relatively lower purchasing power of that currency vis-à-vis those of most poor countries. Because the line was designed to preserve real purchasing power in poor countries, the revisions lead to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence: from 14.5 percent in the old method to 14.1 percent in the new method for 2011. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 percent of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents the detailed methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats, limitations, perils and pitfalls of the approach taken.

Brazil, China, and India have seen falling poverty in their reform periods, but to varying degrees and for different reasons. History left China with favorable initial conditions for rapid poverty reduction through market-led economic growth; at the outset of the reform process there were many distortions to be removed and a relatively low inequality of access to the opportunities so created, though inequality has risen markedly since. By concentrating such opportunities in the hands of the better off, prior inequalities in various dimensions handicapped poverty reduction in both Brazil and India. Brazil's recent success in complementing market-oriented reforms with progressive social policies has helped it achieve a higher proportionate rate of poverty reduction than India, although Brazil has been less successful in terms of economic growth. In the wake of its steep rise in inequality, China might learn from Brazil's success with such policies. India needs to do more to assure that poor people are able to participate in both the country's growth process and its social policies; here there are lessons from both China and Brazil. All three countries have learned how important macroeconomic stability is to poverty reduction. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

This systematic country diagnosis (SCD) for Chad aims to identify how to achieve the twin goals of ending poverty and improving shared prosperity. It acknowledges both: (i) the need for selectivity in pro-poor interventions, and (ii) the inherent difficulty to do so given the many competing binding reasons for poverty. Selectivity means the identification of principal opportunities for sustainable poverty reduction in the next 15 years, as well as the identification of binding constraints to reaping such opportunities. Selectivity also implies making trade-offs between immediate and longer term objectives, with priority given to the identification of poverty reduction opportunities which will: (i) deliver the highest possible results before 2030, and (ii) not undermine prospects for poverty reduction and shared prosperity beyond 2030. The analysis presented in the SCD draws on a variety of information sources. These include domestic statistics and reports, evaluations by the country’s development partners, original research conducted by the World Bank team, and consultations held in N’Djamena with nongovernmental organizations and the private sector. Reaping poverty reduction opportunities will require addressing a selected number of binding constraints.

This issue includes the following headings: living on the edge in Mexico; what has the rise of China meant for labor markets in Latin America?; educating our future teachers; the growing and long-lasting effects of Brazil’s trade liberalization on workers; capturing food consumed away from home in welfare measures; a behavioral approach to water conservation; and using satellite images to estimate local poverty.

In the 20th Century, Brazil rapidly urbanized and is now not only an urban nation but a metropolitan one. Brazils sprawling regioes metropolitanas (metropolitan regions, or RMs, which are municipal clusters) are now home to almost 50 million people and much of the countrys economic vitality. The RM spatial level and its supporting governmental institutions have thus become critical to Brazils future development. While challenges remain for tackling deprivation in rural areas, poverty in Brazil is now predominantly urban. More than six in 10 Brazilians in extreme poverty were living in urban settings as of 2012. Of these, over a fourth was concentrated in the 10 largest RMs.

Poverty estimates based on enumeration from a single point in time form the cornerstone for much of the literature on poverty. Households are typically interviewed once about their consumption or income, and their wellbeing is assessed from their responses. Global estimates of poverty that aggregate poverty counts from all countries implicitly assume that the counts are comparable. This paper illustrates that this assumption of comparability is potentially invalid when households are interviewed multiple times with repeat visits throughout the year. The paper provides an example from Jordan, where the internationally comparable approach of handling the data from repeat visits yields a poverty rate that is 26 percent greater than the rate that is currently reported as the official estimate. The paper also explores alternative definitions of poverty, informed in part by the psychological and biophysical literature on the long-run effects of short-term exposure to poverty or generally adverse environments. This alternative concept of poverty suggests that the prevalence of those who have been affected by poverty in Jordan during 2010 is more than twice as large as the official 2010 estimate of poverty.

This paper examines China’s rural minimum living standard guarantee (dibao) program, one of the largest minimum income cash transfer schemes in the world. Using household survey data matched with published administrative data, the paper describes the dibao program, estimates the program’s impact on poverty, and carries out targeting analysis. The analysis finds that the program provides sufficient income to poor beneficiaries but does not substantially reduce the overall level of poverty, in part because the number of beneficiaries is small relative to the number of poor. Conventional targeting analysis reveals rather large inclusionary and exclusionary targeting errors; propensity score targeting analysis yields smaller but still large targeting errors. Simulations of possible reforms to the dibao program indicate that expanding coverage can potentially yield greater poverty reduction than increasing transfer amounts. In addition, replacing locally diverse dibao lines with a nationally uniform dibao threshold could in theory reduce poverty. The potential gains in poverty reduction, however, depend on the effectiveness of targeting.

Measuring poverty and tracking it over time is an important prerequisite to national economic planning. Absence of official data on household expenditure or poverty line hampered the ability of Iraqi policymakers to understand the extent of the problem, analyze their causes, and devise appropriate policies. Iraq household socioeconomic survey (IHSES) 2006-07 was the first survey of its kind since 1988 to cover all 18 governorates. The survey collected rich information on income, expenditure, employment, housing, education, health, and other socioeconomic indicators. Building on the experience of the first IHSES survey and using international best practice on sampling and questionnaire design and survey implementation, the second round of IHSES was fielded in 201-/13. To fill the data gap, a larger survey was designed to collect information on correlates of household welfare like demographic characteristics, education, occupation, housing, and assets and estimate small-area poverty rates using projection methods. This report presents results from the exercise, the first of its kind for Iraq. Poverty mapping not only provides a visual representation of poverty at subnational levels, it also reveals pockets of poverty and islands of prosperity where they exist. This knowledge is useful to inform decisions on policy design and targeting of development projects and programs.

This document presents the Systematic Country Diagnosis (SCD) for Mali. The SCD was prepared following a consultative process within and outside the World Bank. It identifies constraints and opportunities for achieving the twin goals of ending poverty and improving shared prosperity by 2030 while acknowledging (i) the need for selectivity in pro-poor interventions, and (ii) the many competing ‘binding’ reasons for poverty in Mali. The objectives of the twin goals are similar for Mali as the incidence of dollar-a-day poverty exceeds 40 percent of the population. Selectivity means the identification of principal opportunities for poverty reduction in the next 15 years, as well as the identification of binding constraints to reaping such opportunities. In the search for selectivity, there is the risk of not identifying the correct set of opportunities and constraints. However, the risk of not being selective would probably have more serious implications as it could lead the government and its development partners to disperse their resources and attention too thinly over too many competing priorities. Selectivity also implies making trade-offs between immediate and longer term objectives. In this document priority is given to the identification of poverty reduction opportunities which could deliver results before 2030, while acknowledging that efforts should not undermine the prospects for poverty reduction and shared prosperity beyond 2030. In this regard, particular attention is paid to environmental and fiscal sustainability.

This report examines Armenia’s experience in reducing poverty and raising the welfare of the least well-off in the country in the years since 2009. What households spend on consumption is an indicator of their welfare. As the economy recovered from crisis, the least well-off enjoyed some growth in consumption spending, but not as much as in the years up to 2009. Moreover, growth has become less pro-poor in relative terms because the less well-off enjoyed lower growth in consumption than the better-off. As a result, although consumption did translate into a reduction in poverty, inequality is now higher than before 2009. In 2013, 32 percent of Armenia’s population lived below the national poverty line, a poverty rate higher than in pre-crisis years but down from the high of 35.8 percent in 2010. In fact, between 2012 and 2013, poverty reduction seems to have stalled. This report looks at the micro and macro aspects of Armenia’s poverty reduction experience to: (a) describe the key features of post-crisis poverty, inequality, and consumption growth; (b) examine the drivers of poverty reduction in this period; and (c) explore reasons why future growth might not be as pro-poor as in the past.

This paper is motivated by two stylized facts about poverty in Africa: female-headed households tend to be poorer, and poverty has been falling in the aggregate since the 1990s. These facts raise two questions: How have female-headed households fared? And what role have they played in Africas impressive recent aggregate growth and poverty reduction? Using data covering the entire region, the paper reexamines the current prevalence and characteristics of female-headed households, and asks whether their prevalence has been rising over time, what factors have been associated with such changes since the mid-1990s, and whether poverty has fallen equi-proportionately for male- and female-headed households. Rising gross domestic product has dampened rising female headship. However, other subtle transformations occurring across Africa—changes in marriage behavior, family formation, health, and education—have put upward pressure on female headship, with the result that the share of female-headed households has been growing. This has been happening alongside declining aggregate poverty incidence. However, rather than being left behind, female-headed households have generally seen faster poverty reduction. As a whole, this group has contributed almost as much to the reduction in poverty as male-headed households, despite the smaller share of female-headed households in the population.

With the recent release of the 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) data from the International Comparison Program (ICP), analysts and institutions are confronted with the question of whether and how to use them for global poverty estimation. The previous round of PPP data from 2005 led to a large increase in the estimated number of poor in the world. The 2011 price data suggest that developing countries’ incomes in PPP-adjusted dollars are significantly higher than indicated by the 2005 PPP data. This has created the anticipation that the new PPP data will decrease significantly the count of poor people in the world. This paper presents evidence that if the global poverty line is updated with the 2011 PPP data based on the same set of national poverty lines that define the $1.25 line in 2005 PPPs, and if the 2011 PPP conversion factors are used without adjustments to selected countries, the 2011 poverty rate is within half a percentage point of the current global estimate based on 2005 PPPs. The analysis also indicates that the goal of ‘ending’ extreme poverty by 2030 continues to be an ambitious one.

This note presents 9 stylized facts that emerge related to the evolution of poverty and inequality over the 2002 to 2012 period, especially from 2008 to 2012, as well as some insights into the drivers of poverty changes. It complements existing work on monitoring and understanding shared prosperity – the second corporate goal of the World Bank along with reducing poverty - in Albania and the Western Balkans. Albania poverty estimates are based on the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS). The LSMS is conducted by the Albania Statistics Office (INSTAT) with donor funding and has been carried out in 2002, 2005, 2008 and recently in 2012.

The last poverty assessment for Rwanda was conducted in 1997. Three years after the genocide, the country was characterized by deep and widespread poverty, rock-bottom health indicators, and pervasive hunger and food insecurity. In real terms, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was lower than it had been in 1960. In real terms, the economy quadrupled between 1995 and 2013. Enrolment in primary school is near universal and infant and child mortality are among the lowest in Africa. A large part of the population, including the extreme poor, is covered by public health insurance. This poverty assessment focuses on the evolution of poverty and other social indicators over the past decade (2000-1 and 2010-11). Using data from a variety of sources, mainly the three household living standards surveys (EICV) and the three demographic and health surveys (DHS) conducted during the past decade, the poverty assessment documents trends in monetary and non-monetary dimensions of living standards and examines the drivers of observed trends. The aim of the poverty assessment is to provide policy makers and development partners with information and analysis that can be used to improve the effectiveness of their poverty reduction and social programs.

Since the early 2000s, Tanzania has seen remarkable economic growth and strong resilience to external shocks. Yet these achievements were overshadowed by the slow response of poverty to the growing economy. Until 2007, the poverty rate in Tanzania remained stagnant at around 34 percent despite a robust growth at an annualized rate of approximately 7 percent. This apparent disconnect between growth and poverty reduction has raised concerns among policy makers and researchers, leading to a consensus that this mismatch needed to be addressed with a sense of urgency. Over the past few years, the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) in Tanzania has given high priority to eradicating extreme poverty and promoting broad-based growth. Achieving pro-poor growth has also been widely recognized by the World Bank as a critical strategy for accelerating progress toward its twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty at the global level by 2030 and boosting shared prosperity by fostering income growth among the bottom 40 percent in every country. The official poverty figures announced by the government in November 2013 have revealed that the national strategy against poverty has begun to facilitate reductions. The basic needs poverty rate has declined from around 34 percent to 28.2 percent between 2007 and 2012, the first significant decline in the last 20 years. Identifying the policy mechanisms that have helped to increase the participation of the poor in the growth process and to speed pro-poor growth is therefore important for present and future decision-making in Tanzania on how best to eradicate poverty. Such task requires a rigorous analysis of the evolution of poverty and of the linkages between poverty, inequality, and economic growth. This report uses the availability of the new Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2011 and 2012, as well as the new rebased GDP figures released in December 2014, as an opportunity to address these issues. More specifically, the report examines the recent trends in poverty and inequality and their determinants and explores how responsive poverty reduction was to economic growth and the obstacles to achieving it.

Since the early 2000s, Tanzania has seen remarkable economic growth and strong resilience to external shocks. Yet these achievements were overshadowed by the slow response of poverty to the growing economy. Until 2007, the poverty rate in Tanzania remained stagnant at around 34 percent despite a robust growth at an annualized rate of approximately 7 percent. This apparent disconnect between growth and poverty reduction has raised concerns among policy makers and researchers, leading to a consensus that this mismatch needed to be addressed with a sense of urgency. Over the past few years, the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) in Tanzania has given high priority to eradicating extreme poverty and promoting broad-based growth. Achieving pro-poor growth has also been widely recognized by the World Bank as a critical strategy for accelerating progress toward its twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty at the global level by 2030 and boosting shared prosperity by fostering income growth among the bottom 40 percent in every country. The official poverty figures announced by the government in November 2013 have revealed that the national strategy against poverty has begun to facilitate reductions. The basic needs poverty rate has declined from around 34 percent to 28.2 percent between 2007 and 2012, the first significant decline in the last 20 years. Identifying the policy mechanisms that have helped to increase the participation of the poor in the growth process and to speed pro-poor growth is therefore important for present and future decision-making in Tanzania on how best to eradicate poverty. Such task requires a rigorous analysis of the evolution of poverty and of the linkages between poverty, inequality, and economic growth. This report uses the availability of the new Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2011 and 2012, as well as the new rebased GDP figures released in December 2014, as an opportunity to address these issues. More specifically, the report examines the recent trends in poverty and inequality and their determinants and explores how responsive poverty reduction was to economic growth and the obstacles to achieving it.