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Background Phase III trials have estimated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. We explore the direction and magnitude of potential biases in these estimates and their implications for vaccine protection against infection and against disease in breakthrough infections. Methods We developed a mathematical model that accounts for natural and vaccine-induced immunity, changes in serostatus, and imperfect sensitivity and specificity of tests for infection and antibodies. We estimated expected biases in VE against symptomatic, asymptomatic, and any severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and against disease following infection for a range of vaccine characteristics and measurement approaches, and the likely overall biases for published trial results that included asymptomatic infections. Results VE against asymptomatic infection measured by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or serology is expected to be low or negative for vaccines that prevent disease but not infection. VE against any infection is overestimated when asymptomatic infections are less likely to be detected than symptomatic infections and the vaccine protects against symptom development. A competing bias toward underestimation arises for estimates based on tests with imperfect specificity, especially when testing is performed frequently. Our model indicates considerable uncertainty in Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 and Janssen Ad26.COV2.S VE against any infection, with slightly higher than published, bias-adjusted values of 59.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38.4–77.1) and 70.9% (95% UI 49.8–80.7), respectively. Conclusions Multiple biases are likely to influence COVID-19 VE estimates, potentially explaining the observed difference between ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. These biases should be considered when interpreting both efficacy and effectiveness study results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pakistan currently provides a substantial challenge to global polio eradication, having contributed to 73% of reported poliomyelitis in 2015 and 54% in 2016. A better understanding of the risk factors and movement patterns that contribute to poliovirus transmission across Pakistan would support evidence-based planning for mass vaccination campaigns.Methods and Findings: We fit mixed-effects logistic regression models to routine surveillance data recording the presence of poliomyelitis associated with wild-type 1 poliovirus in districts of Pakistan over 6-month intervals between 2010 to 2016. To accurately capture the force of infection (FOI) between districts, we compared 6 models of population movement (adjacency, gravity, radiation, radiation based on population density, radiation based on travel times, and mobile-phone based). We used the best-fitting model (based on the Akaike Information Criterion [AIC]) to produce 6-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence. The odds of observing poliomyelitis decreased with improved routine or supplementary (campaign) immunisation coverage (multivariable odds ratio [OR] = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; and OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, for each 10% increase in coverage) and increased with a higher rate of reporting non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) (OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26 for a 1-unit increase in non-polio AFP per 100,000 persons aged <15 years). Estimated movement of poliovirus-infected individuals was associated with the incidence of poliomyelitis, with the radiation model of movement providing the best fit to the data. Six-month forecasts of poliomyelitis incidence by district for 2013-2016 showed good predictive ability (area under the curve range: 0.76-0.98). However, although the best-fitting movement model (radiation) was a significant determinant of poliomyelitis incidence, it did not improve the predictive ability of the multivariable model. Overall, in Pakistan the risk of polio cases was predicted to reduce between July-December 2016 and January-June 2017. The accuracy of the model may be limited by the small number of AFP cases in some districts.Conclusions: Spatiotemporal variation in immunization performance and population movement patterns are important determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan; however, movement dynamics were less influential in predicting future cases, at a time when the polio map is shrinking. Results from the regression models we present are being used to help plan vaccination campaigns and transit vaccination strategies in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2014, 2 studies showed that inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) boosts intestinal immunity in children previously immunized with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). As a result, IPV was introduced in mass campaigns to help achieve polio eradication.Methods: We conducted an open-label, randomized, controlled trial to assess the duration of the boost in intestinal immunity following a dose of IPV given to OPV-immunized children. Nine hundred healthy children in Vellore, India, aged 1-4 years were randomized (1:1:1) to receive IPV at 5 months (arm A), at enrollment (arm B), or no vaccine (arm C). The primary outcome was poliovirus shedding in stool 7 days after bivalent OPV challenge at 11 months.Results: For children in arms A, B, and C, 284 (94.7%), 297 (99.0%), and 296 (98.7%), respectively, were eligible for primary per-protocol analysis. Poliovirus shedding 7 days after challenge was less prevalent in arms A and B compared with C (24.6%, 25.6%, and 36.4%, respectively; risk ratio 0.68 [95% confidence interval: 0.53-0.87] for A versus C, and 0.70 [0.55-0.90] for B versus C).Conclusions: Protection against poliovirus remained elevated 6 and 11 months after an IPV boost, although at a lower level than reported at 1 month.Clinical Trials Registration: CTRI/2014/09/004979. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) is imperfect and potentially allows immunized individuals to participate in asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus transmission in settings with efficient fecal-oral transmission of infection. Methods. We examined the extent of asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus transmission in India by measuring the prevalence of virus in stool samples obtained from 14,005 healthy children who were in contact with 2761 individuals with suspected poliomyelitis reported during the period 2003-2008. Results. Wild-type poliovirus serotypes 1 and 3 were isolated from the stool samples of 103 (0.74%) and 104 (0.74%) healthy contacts, respectively. Among contacts of individuals with laboratory-confirmed poliomyelitis, 27 (12.7%) of 213 and 29 (13.9%) of 209 had serotypes 1 and 3, respectively, isolated from their stool samples. The odds ratio of excreting serotype 1 wild-type poliovirus was 0.13 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.87) among healthy children reporting ⩾6 doses of OPV, compared with children reporting 0-2 doses. However, two-thirds of healthy children who excreted this virus reported ⩾6 doses, and the prevalence of this virus did not decrease with age over the sampled range. Conclusions. Although OPV is protective against infection with poliovirus, the majority of healthy contacts who excreted wild-type poliovirus were well vaccinated. This is consistent with a potential role for OPV-vaccinated children in continued wild-type poliovirus transmission and requires further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses the study of Rouhani and colleagues on the prevalence of norovirus among the children in developing countries. The author mentions that gastrointestina; (GI) norovirus infection affects three-quarters of the children in the said countries. The author cites the way the researchers conduct their study.

A central question in population ecology is the role of‘exogenous’environmental factors versus density-dependent‘endogenous’biological factors in driving changes in population numbers. This question is also central to infectious disease epidemiology, where changes in disease incidence due to behavioural or environmental change must be distinguished from the nonlinear dynamics of the parasite population. Repeated epidemics of primary and secondary syphilis infection in the United States over the past 50?yr have previously been attributed to social and behavioural changes. Here, we show that these epidemics represent a rare example of unforced, endogenous oscillations in disease incidence, with an 8-11-yr period that is predicted by the natural dynamics of syphilis infection, to which there is partially protective immunity. This conclusion is supported by the absence of oscillations in gonorrhoea cases, where a protective immune response is absent. We further demonstrate increased synchrony of syphilis oscillations across cities over time, providing empirical evidence for an increasingly connected sexual network in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses aspects of the changes in the routine of the polio vaccination practice following the preparation for the withdrawal of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) serotype 2 vaccine viruses. Topics include the introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to provide alternative for serotype 2 immunity, the study on the effect of the IPV on the humoral immunity to poliovirus serotypes, and the result of the study which conclude the poor routine immunisation of IPV dose.

The article focuses on research into the efficacy of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) and its effect on mucosal immunity. It states that 954 participants in India received bivalent one and three oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV), IPV, or no vaccine, with a bOPV challenge administered four weeks later with excretion assessed at three, seven, and 14 days. It comments on fecal shedding of poliovirus using Fisher's exact test and mentions IPV boosted intestinal mucosal immunity.

Background: The largest recorded outbreak of a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV), detected in Nigeria, provides a unique opportunity to analyze the pathogenicity of the virus, the clinical severity of the disease, and the effectiveness of control measures for cVDPVs as compared with wild-type poliovirus (WPV). Methods: We identified cases of acute flaccid paralysis associated with fecal excretion of type 2 cVDPV, type 1 WPV, or type 3 WPV reported in Nigeria through routine surveillance from January 1, 2005, through June 30, 2009. The clinical characteristics of these cases, the clinical attack rates for each virus, and the effectiveness of oral polio vaccines in preventing paralysis from each virus were compared. Results: No significant differences were found in the clinical severity of paralysis among the 278 cases of type 2 cVDPV, the 2323 cases of type 1 WPV, and the 1059 cases of type 3 WPV. The estimated average annual clinical attack rates of type 1 WPV, type 2 cVDPV, and type 3 WPV per 100,000 susceptible children under 5 years of age were 6.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9 to 7.7), 2.7 (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.6), and 4.0 (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.7), respectively. The estimated effectiveness of trivalent oral polio vaccine against paralysis from type 2 cVDPV was 38% (95% CI, 15 to 54%) per dose, which was substantially higher than that against paralysis from type 1 WPV (13%; 95% CI, 8 to 18%), or type 3 WPV (20%; 95% CI, 12 to 26%). The more frequent use of serotype 1 and serotype 3 monovalent oral polio vaccines has resulted in improvements in vaccine-induced population immunity against these serotypes and in declines in immunity to type 2 cVDPV. Conclusions: The attack rate and severity of disease associated with the recent cVDPV identified in Nigeria are similar to those associated with WPV. International planning for the management of the risk of WPV, both before and after eradication, must include scenarios in which equally virulent and pathogenic cVDPVs could emerge. N Engl J Med 2010;362:2360-9. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The number of cases of paralytic poliomyelitis has declined in Nigeria since the introduction of newly licensed monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines and new techniques of vaccine delivery. Understanding the relative contribution of these vaccines and the improved coverage to the decline in incident cases is essential for future planning. Methods: We estimated the field efficacies of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, using the reported number of doses received by people with poliomyelitis and by matched controls as identified in Nigeria's national surveillance database, in which 27,379 cases of acute flaccid paralysis were recorded between 2001 and 2007. Our estimates of vaccine coverage and vaccine-induced immunity were based on the number of doses received by children listed in the database who had paralysis that was not caused by poliovirus. Results: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26). In the northwestern region of Nigeria, which reported the majority of cases during the study period, coverage with at least one dose of vaccine increased from 59 to 78%. Between 2005 and 2007, vaccine-induced immunity levels among children under the age of 5 years more than doubled, to 56%. Conclusions: The higher efficacy of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine (four times as effective as trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine) and the moderate gains in coverage dramatically increased vaccine-induced immunity against serotype 1 in northern Nigeria. Further increases in coverage in Nigerian states with infected populations are required to achieve the levels of vaccine-induced immunity associated with the sustained elimination achieved in other parts of the country. N Engl J Med 2008;359:1666-74. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]