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Adélie‐George V Land in East Antarctica, encompassing the vast Wilkes Subglacial Basin, has a configuration that could be prone to ice sheet instability: the basin's retrograde bed slope could make its marine terminating glaciers vulnerable to warm seawater intrusion and irreversible retreat under predicted climate forcing. However, future projections are uncertain, due in part to limited subglacial observations near the grounding zone. Here, we develop a novel statistical approach to characterize subglacial conditions from radar sounding observations. Our method reveals intermixed frozen and thawed bed within 100 km of the grounding‐zone near the Wilkes Subglacial Basin outflow, and enables comparisons to ice sheet model‐inferred thermal states. The signs of intermixed or near thawed conditions raises the possibility that changes in basal thermal state could impact the stability of Adélie‐George V Land, adding to the region's potentially vulnerable topographic configuration and sensitivity to ocean forcing driven grounding line retreat. Plain Language Summary: East Antarctica's Adélie‐George V Land has been relatively stable over the last few decades. However, this region contains the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which has a downward‐sloping bed inland of the grounding zone. This could make irreversible retreat possible if warming seawater off the coast enters beneath the ice sheet. However, predicting the region's vulnerability is difficult, in part, because there is limited information about the conditions beneath the ice sheet. In this study, we develop a new statistical approach to synthesize radar sounding data and classify the conditions at the ice‐bed interface into frozen‐bed and thawed‐bed, which can then provide comparisons to ice sheet model output. We find that areas near the outflow of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, critical in maintaining the stability of the region, might consist of mixed frozen‐bed and thawed‐bed or near‐thawed conditions on the scale of tens of kilometers across. This finding is important since the extent of basal thaw affects how easily ice can flow or slide over the bed. If parts of the bed are close to thawed, this could make Adélie‐George V Land more sensitive to climate forcing, possibly resulting in mass loss. Key Points: We develop an adaptable statistical framework using radar sounding data to classify the basal thermal state of ice sheetsApplied to the Adélie‐George V Coast, the framework reveals a mix of frozen and thawed‐bed, along with confidence in the classificationsAreas maintaining the region's stability have varied thermal states and we consider how this could increase sensitivity to climate forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. Grounding line discharge is a key component of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we present an estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge from 1996 through to last month. We calculate ice flux at up to 100 m resolution through 16 algorithmically-generated flux gates, which are continuous around Antarctica. We draw on a range of ice velocity and thickness data to estimate grounding line discharge. For ice thickness, we use four bed topography datasets, two firn models and a temporally varying ice surface. For the ice velocity, we utilise a range of publicly-available ice velocity maps at resolutions ranging from 240 x 240 m to 1000 x 1000 m, as well as new, 100 x 100 m monthly velocity mosaics derived from intensity-tracking of Sentinel-1 image pairs, available since October 2014. The pixel-based ice fluxes and ice flux errors are integrated within all available Antarctic ice stream, ice shelf and glacier basins. Our dataset also includes the contributions to discharge from changes in ice thickness due to surface lowering, time-varying firn air content and surface mass change between the flux gates and grounding line. We find that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge increased from 1,990 ± 23 Gt yr-1 to 2,205 ± 18 Gt yr-1 between 1996 and 2023, much of which was due to acceleration of ice streams in West Antarctica but with substantial contributions from ice streams in East Antarctica and glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. The uncertainties in our discharge dataset primarily result from uncertain bed elevation and flux gate location, which account for much of difference between our results and previous studies. It is our intention to update this discharge dataset each month, subject to continued Sentinel-1 acquisitions and funding availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 79° North Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsbrae, 79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier was considered exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies indicate that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar measurements in conjunction with satellite remote sensing observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of 79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high subglacial channel has grown since ~2010 and caused surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a-1. Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a-1 within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line, where the ice has thinned by 42 % since 1998. We found a heterogeneous distribution of melt rates likely due to variability in water column thickness and channelization of the ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into the cavity below 79NG. We discuss the processes that have led to the changes in geometry and conclude that the inflow of warm ocean currents has led to the extensive thinning of 79NG's floating ice tongue near the grounding line in the last two decades. In contrast, we hypothesize that the growth of the channel results from increased subglacial discharge due to a considerably enlarged area of summer surface melt due to the warming of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the dynamic behaviour of ice shelves, specifically the controls on their ability to buttress the flow of ice into the ocean, is critical for predicting future ice-sheet contributions to sea level rise. Many large ice shelves, which are predominantly composed of meteoric ice, have a basal layer of marine ice (formed from accumulated platelets at the ice–ocean interface), comprising up to 40% of their thickness locally. Differences in temperature, chemistry and microstructure between marine and meteoric ice mean the rheological properties of the ice vary throughout the ice shelf. These differences are not explicitly accounted for in ice-sheet modelling applications, and may have an important influence on ice shelf dynamics. We tested the sensitivity of a model of an idealised ice shelf to variations in temperature distribution and flow enhancement, and found that incorporating a realistic thermal profile (where the marine ice layer is isothermal) had an order of magnitude greater effect on ice mass flux and thinning than incorporating the mechanical properties of the marine ice. The presence of marine ice at the ice shelf base has the potential to significantly increase deviatoric stresses at the surface and ice mass flux across the front of an ice shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accreted ice retains and preserves traces of the ocean from which it formed. In this work, we study two classes of accreted ice found on Earth—frazil ice, which forms through crystallization within a supercooled water column, and congelation ice, which forms through directional freezing at an existing interface—and discuss where each might be found in the ice shells of ocean worlds. We focus our study on terrestrial ice formed in low temperature gradient environments (e.g., beneath ice shelves), consistent with conditions expected at the ice-ocean interfaces of Europa and Enceladus, and we highlight the juxtaposition of compositional trends in relation to ice formed in higher temperature gradient environments (e.g., at the ocean surface). Observations from Antarctic sub-ice-shelf congelation ice and marine ice show that the purity of frazil ice can be nearly two orders of magnitude higher than congelation ice formed in the same low temperature gradient environment (∼0.1% vs. ∼10% of the ocean salinity). In addition, where congelation ice can maintain a planar ice-water interface on a microstructural scale, the efficiency of salt rejection is enhanced (∼1% of the ocean salinity) and lattice soluble impurities such as chloride are preferentially incorporated. We conclude that an ice shell that forms by gradual thickening as its interior cools would be composed of congelation ice, whereas frazil ice will accumulate where the ice shell thins on local (rifts and basal fractures) or regional (latitudinal gradients) scales through the operation of an "ice pump." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing melt of ice sheets at their floating or vertical interfaces with the ocean is a major driver of marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise. However, the extent to which warm, salty seawater may drive melting under the grounded portions of ice sheets is still not well understood. Previous work has explored the possibility that dense seawater intrudes beneath relatively light subglacial freshwater discharge, similar to the "salt wedge" observed in many estuarine systems. In this study, we develop a generalized theory of layered seawater intrusion under grounded ice, including where subglacial hydrology occurs as a macroporous water sheet over impermeable beds or as microporous Darcy flow through permeable till. Using predictions from this theory, we show that seawater intrusion over flat or reverse-sloping impermeable beds may feasibly occur up to tens of kilometers upstream of a glacier terminus or grounding line. On the other hand, seawater is unlikely to intrude more than tens of meters through permeable till. Simulations using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) show that even just a few hundred meters of basal melt caused by seawater intrusion upstream of marine ice sheet grounding lines can cause projections of marine ice sheet volume loss to be 10 %–50 % higher. Kilometers of intrusion-induced basal melt can cause projected ice sheet volume loss to more than double. These results suggest that further observational, experimental and numerical investigations are needed to determine the conditions under which seawater intrusion occurs and whether it will indeed drive rapid marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent satellite data have revealed widespread grounding line retreat, glacier thinning, and associated mass loss along the Bellingshausen Sea sector, leading to increased concern for the stability of this region of Antarctica. While satellites have greatly improved our understanding of surface conditions, a lack of radio-echo sounding (RES) data in this region has restricted our analysis of subglacial topography, ice thickness and ice flux. In this paper we analyse 3,000 km of 150 MHz airborne RES data collected using the PASIN2 radar system (flown at 3-5 km line spacing) to investigate the subglacial controls on ice flow near to the grounding lines of Ers, Envisat, Cryosat, Grace, Sentinel, Lidke and Landsat ice streams as well as Hall and Nikitin glaciers. We find that each outlet is topographically controlled, and when ice thickness is combined with surface velocity data from MEaSUREs (Mouiginot et al., 2019), these outlets are found to discharge over 39.2 ± 0.79 Gt a-1 of ice to floating ice shelves and the Southern Ocean. Our RES measurements reveal that outlet flows are grounded more than 300 m below sea level, and that there is limited topographic support for inland grounding line re-stabilisation in a future retreating scenario, with several ice stream beds dipping inland at ~ 5 degrees per km. These data reinforce the importance of accurate bed topography to model and understand the controls on inland ice flow and grounding line position as well as overall mass balance / sea level change estimates. RES data described in this paper are available through the UK Polar Data Center: https://doi.org/10.5285/ E07D62BF-D58C-4187-A019-59BE998939CC (Corr and Robinson, 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shape of ice shelf cavities are a major source of uncertainty in understanding ice‐ocean interactions. This limits assessments of the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to climate change. Here we use vibroseis seismic reflection surveys to map the bathymetry beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land. The new bathymetry reveals an inland‐sloping trough, reaching depths of 1,100 m below sea level, near the current grounding line, which we attribute to erosion by palaeo‐ice streams. The trough does not cross‐cut the outer parts of the continental shelf. Conductivity‐temperature‐depth profiles within the ice shelf cavity reveal the presence of cold water at shallower depths and tidal mixing at the ice shelf margins. It is unknown if warm water can access the trough. The new bathymetry is thought to be representative of many ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, which together regulate the ice loss from a substantial area of East Antarctica. Plain Language Summary: Antarctica is surrounded by floating ice shelves, which play a crucial role in regulating the flow of ice from the continent into the oceans. The ice shelves are susceptible to melting from warm ocean waters beneath them. In order to better understand the melting, knowledge of the shape and depth of the ocean cavity beneath ice shelves is crucial. In this study, we present new measurements of the sea floor depth beneath Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. The measurements reveal a much deeper sea floor than previously known. We discuss the implications of this for access of warm ocean waters, which can melt the base of the ice shelf and discuss how the observed sea floor features were formed by historical ice flow regimes. Although Ekström Ice Shelf is relatively small, the geometry described here is thought to be representative of the topography beneath many ice shelves in this region, which together regulate the ice loss from a substantial area of East Antarctica. Key Points: Vibroseis seismic surveys used to map the ice shelf cavity beneath Ekström Ice Shelf in AntarcticaDeep trough with transverse sills and overdeepenings provide evidence of past ice streaming and retreatTwo ocean circulation regimes inferred in the shallow and deep parts of the cavity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the period between 14.7 and 11.5 cal. (calibrated) kyr B.P, the sediment flux of Bindschadler Ice Stream (BIS; West Antarctica) averaged 1.7 × 108 m3 a-1. This implies that BIS velocity averaged 500 ± 120 m a-1. At a finer resolution, the data suggest two stages of ice stream flow. During the first 2400 ± 400 years of a grounding-zone stillstand, ice stream flow averaged 200 ± 90 m a-1. Following ice-shelf breakup at 12.3 ± 0.2 cal. kyr B.P., flow accelerated to 1350 ± 580 m a-1. The estimated ice volume discharge after breakup exceeds the balance velocity by a factor of two and implies ice mass imbalance of -40 Gt a-1 just before the grounding zone retreated >200 km. We interpret that the paleo-BIS maintained sustainable discharge throughout the grounding-zone stillstand first due to the buttressing effect of its fringing ice shelf and then later (i.e., after ice-shelf breakup) due to the stabilizing effects of grounding-zone wedge aggradation. Major paleo-ice stream retreat, shortly after the ice-shelf breakup that triggered the inferred ice flow acceleration, substantiates the current concerns about rapid, near-future retreat of major glaciers in the Amundsen Sea sector where Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers are already experiencing ice-shelf instability and groundingzone retreat that have triggered upstream-propagating thinning and ice acceleration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerated calving of ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic Ice Sheet may form unstable ice cliffs. The marine ice cliff instability hypothesis posits that cliffs taller than a critical height (~90 m) will undergo structural collapse, initiating runaway retreat in ice‐sheet models. This critical height is based on inferences from preexisting, static ice cliffs. Here we show how the critical height increases with the timescale of ice‐shelf collapse. We model failure mechanisms within an ice cliff deforming after removal of ice‐shelf buttressing stresses. If removal occurs rapidly, the cliff deforms primarily elastically and fails through tensile‐brittle fracture, even at relatively small cliff heights. As the ice‐shelf removal timescale increases, viscous relaxation dominates, and the critical height increases to ~540 m for timescales greater than days. A 90‐m critical height implies ice‐shelf removal in under an hour. Incorporation of ice‐shelf collapse timescales in prognostic ice‐sheet models will mitigate the marine ice cliff instability, implying less ice mass loss. Plain Language Summary: The seaward flow of ice from grounded ice sheets to the ocean is often resisted by the buttressing effect of floating ice shelves. These ice shelves risk collapsing as the climate warms, potentially exposing tall cliff faces. Some suggest ice cliffs taller than ~90 m could collapse under their own weight, exposing taller cliffs further to the interior of a thickening ice sheet, leading to runaway ice‐sheet retreat. This model, however, is based on studies of preexisting cliffs found at calving fronts. In this study, we consider the transient case, examining the processes by which an ice cliff forms as a buttressing ice shelf is removed. We show that the height at which a cliff collapses increases with the timescale of ice‐shelf removal. If the ice shelf is removed rapidly, deformation may be concentrated, forming vertical cracks and potentially leading to the collapse of small (e.g., 90‐m) cliffs. However, if we consider ice‐shelf collapse timescales longer than a few days (consistent with observations), deformation is distributed throughout the cliff, which flows viscously rather than collapsing. We expect that including the effects of such ice‐shelf collapse timescales in future ice‐sheet models would mitigate runaway cliff collapse and reduce predicted ice‐sheet mass loss. Key Points: The critical height required for the collapse of marine ice cliffs increases with the timescale of buttressing ice‐shelf removalOver short timescales, deformation is primarily elastic; a 90‐m cliff (a previous threshold) may fail if removal occurs in under an hourOver timescales longer than days (as in the Larsen B collapse), deformation is by viscous, ductile flow for cliffs shorter than ~540 m [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe new Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice thickness constraints for three locations spanning the Weddell Sea Embayment (WSE) of Antarctica. Samples collected from the Shackleton Range, Pensacola Mountains, and the Lassiter Coast constrain the LGM thickness of the Slessor Glacier, Foundation Ice Stream, and grounded ice proximal to the modern Ronne Ice Shelf edge on the Antarctic Peninsula, respectively. Previous attempts to reconstruct LGM-to-present ice thickness changes around the WSE used measurements of long-lived cosmogenic nuclides, primarily 10Be. An absence of post-LGM apparent exposure ages at many sites led to LGM thickness reconstructions that were spatially highly variable and inconsistent with flow line modelling. Estimates for the contribution of the ice sheet occupying the WSE at the LGM to global sea level since deglaciation vary by an order of magnitude, from 1.4 to 14.1 m of sea level equivalent. Here we use a short-lived cosmogenic nuclide, in situ-produced 14C , which is less susceptible to inheritance problems than 10Be and other long-lived nuclides. We use in situ 14C to evaluate the possibility that sites with no post-LGM exposure ages are biased by cosmogenic nuclide inheritance due to surface preservation by cold-based ice and non-deposition of LGM-aged drift. Our measurements show that the Slessor Glacier was between 310 and up to 655 m thicker than present at the LGM. The Foundation Ice Stream was at least 800 m thicker, and ice on the Lassiter Coast was at least 385 m thicker than present at the LGM. With evidence for LGM thickening at all of our study sites, our in situ 14C measurements indicate that the long-lived nuclide measurements of previous studies were influenced by cosmogenic nuclide inheritance. Our inferred LGM configuration, which is primarily based on minimum ice thickness constraints and thus does not constrain an upper limit, indicates a relatively modest contribution to sea level rise since the LGM of < 4.6 m, and possibly as little as < 1.5 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of Antarctic ice shelves are bounded by grounded ice rises. These ice rises exhibit local flow fields that partially oppose the flow of the surrounding ice shelves. Formation of ice rises is accompanied by a characteristic upward-arching internal stratigraphy ("Raymond arches"), whose geometry can be analysed to infer information about past ice-sheet changes in areas where other archives such as rock outcrops are missing. Here we present an improved modelling framework to study ice-rise evolution using a satellite-velocity calibrated, isothermal, and isotropic 3-D full-Stokes model including grounding-line dynamics at the required mesh resolution (< 500 m). This overcomes limitations of previous studies where ice-rise modelling has been restricted to 2-D and excluded the coupling between the ice shelf and ice rise. We apply the model to the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica, containing two ice rises. Our simulations investigate the effect of surface mass balance and ocean perturbations onto ice-rise divide position and interpret possible resulting unique Raymond arch geometries. Our results show that changes in the surface mass balance result in immediate and sustained divide migration (>2.0 m yr -1) of up to 3.5 km. In contrast, instantaneous ice-shelf disintegration causes a short-lived and delayed (by 60–100 years) response of smaller magnitude (<0.75 m yr -1). The model tracks migration of a triple junction and synchronous ice-divide migration in both ice rises with similar magnitude but differing rates. The model is suitable for glacial/interglacial simulations on the catchment scale, providing the next step forward to unravel the ice-dynamic history stored in ice rises all around Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast with the severe thinning of ice shelves along the coast of West Antarctica, large ice shelves (specifically, the Filchner–Ronne and Amery Ice Shelves) with deep grounding lines gained mass during the period 1994–2012. This positive mass budget is potentially associated with the marine ice production, which originates from the supercooled Ice Shelf Water plume carrying suspended frazil ice along the ice shelf base. In addition, the outflow of this supercooled plume from beneath the ice shelf arguably exerts a significant impact on the properties of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as its production. However, knowledge of this buoyant and supercooled shear flow is still limited, let alone its structure that is generally assumed to be vertically uniform. In this study we extended the vertical one-dimensional model of ice shelf–ocean boundary current from Jenkins (2016) by incorporating a frazil ice module and a fairly sophisticated turbulence closure (i.e., k - ε model) with the effects of density stratification. On the basis of this extended model, the study reproduced the measured thermohaline properties of a perennially-prominent supercooled ice shelf–ocean​ boundary current underneath the Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, and conducted extensive sensitivity runs to a wide range of factors, including advection of scalar quantities, far-field geostrophic currents, basal slope, and the distribution of frazil ice crystal size. Based on the simulation results, the following conclusions can be drawn: Firstly, it can be difficult to reasonably reproduce the vertical structure of the ice shelf–ocean boundary current using a constant eddy viscosity/diffusivity near the ice shelf base. Secondly, although there are no direct observations of the size of frazil ice crystals beneath the ice shelves, the size of the finest ice crystals that play an important role in controlling the ice shelf–ocean boundary current is strongly suggested. Lastly, but most importantly, the ice shelf–ocean boundary layer response to the vertical gradient of frazil ice concentration will significantly reduce the level of turbulence. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of the strong interaction between frazil ice formation and the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of ice shelf–ocean boundary layer. This interaction must not only be included, but also be resolved at high resolutions in three-dimensional coupled ice shelf–ocean models applied to cold ice cavities, which will have a potential impact on the overall ice shelf mass balance and the Antarctic Bottom Water production. • A vertical 1D model of ice shelf-ocean boundary current with frazil ice is developed. • Sensitivity of frazil-laden ice shelf–ocean boundary current is extensively examined. • Interactions between frazil ice and ice shelf–ocean boundary current are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the trend and main causes of the formation and distribution of Blue ice areas (BIAs) in Antarctica may help the search for areas (BIAs) suitable for ice runways for heavy aircraft. Two districts were explored on the glacier within a 50 km radius around the Larsemann Hills. They were isolated as blue ice areas based on the analysis of satellite images. According to the results of surface studies, one of the areas (about 500x5,000 m in size), though initially identified as a BIA based on the analysis of satellite images, has a high density firn covered with sun crust. The second area is indeed a blue ice area of significant size (about 5,000x5,000 m). Similarities and differences have been determined in the formation conditions of the glacier surface in the two areas of assumed BIAs, and an analysis was carried out to identify dominant, necessary and "sufficient" reasons for the sustained existence of BIAs. An obvious link has been found between the distribution of BIAs and the morphology of the subglacial mountain relief and the ice dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]